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+60° C in Rio de Janeiro:https://www.riotimesonline.com/rio-de-janeiro-faces-unseen-heat-levels-exceeds-60c/Extreme drou...
21/03/2024

+60° C in Rio de Janeiro:
https://www.riotimesonline.com/rio-de-janeiro-faces-unseen-heat-levels-exceeds-60c/

Extreme drought in Southern Europe:
https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/european-and-global-drought-observatories/current-drought-situation-europe_en

2024 may therefore turn out hotter than 2023, which had already exceeded +1.5°C above pre-industrial:
https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68110310

We are reminded that in 2021, the world was “expected to reach 1.5C within 20 years, even in the best-case scenario of deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions”, and that “up to 3bn out of the projected world population of about 9bn could be exposed to temperatures on par with the hottest parts of the Sahara by 2070”:
https://www.ft.com/content/072b5c87-7330-459b-a947-be6767a1099d?fbclid=IwAR16eXuG9r0C4t6FPdpGniy8no5pYXPZGo8agNgLNRhOP2VjGGc0WuNKfIk

Given we have reached +1.5° C in 2023 already, 3b people could well be living in unlivable heat conditions well before 2070

Each degree of warming above present levels corresponds to roughly 1bn people falling outside of ‘climate niche’

Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse, the World Meteorological Organization (W...
19/03/2024

Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday

Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday, with its chief voicing particular concern about ocean heat and shrinking sea ice.

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager (10 trillion USD in assets under management in January 2...
09/11/2022

Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager (10 trillion USD in assets under management in January 2022) gave this shocking interview on 24 October 2022, unfortunately available only in French or German.

https://www.pme.ch/invest/2022/10/24/larry-fink-ceo-de-blackrock-la-suisse-est-pour-nous-lun-des-marches-les-plus-importants-539793

Here is a translation of the part about fossil fuels [my notes in square parenthesis]:

Let's talk about BlackRock's sustainability strategy. What is your position on oil and gas facilities?

We believe in the strategy that climate risks are also investment risks. If you owned carbon stocks [ie, fossil fuels] last year, you did very well. But if you own sustainability stocks [renewable energy] you have done rather poorly over the one-year horizon.

The conclusion?

When we talk about climate risk as an investment risk [who does?] we are talking about a longer time horizon. With a three-year horizon, the comparison of returns would have been more balanced [ie, we choose fast profits over sustainability].

How important is it to you to reduce carbon emissions?

Decarbonisation is very expensive. This is particularly true given the imbalances between supply and demand in gas and oil. For gas in Europe, we have extreme valuations. On the other hand, oil prices have returned to the same level as before the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, in the long term, the energy transition is taking place and companies need to adapt their business models accordingly.

So you are not turning away from investments in gas or oil?

We have always said that we will not give up our investments in this region. We have always been an investor in gas pipelines, such as the Saudi pipeline, the Abu Dhabi pipeline, the Texas to Mexico pipeline. We are convinced that gas will continue to play a very important role in the energy mix.

This is not unanimously accepted.

Some will disagree with me. But we have not changed our mind: a quick divestment from oil and gas is not a fair and just transition. It requires a long-term planning process while investing in decarbonisation technologies [but BlackRock does not invest in decarbonisation technologies].

So where do you see the path to carbon reduction for energy production?

I am a big supporter of new technologies and believe in carbon sequestration and recovery [certainly meaning *oil* recovery, ie, CCUS]. We believe that these technologies will compensate for the continued consumption of carbon [ie, admitting CCS and CCUS are a ploy to allow the continued consumption of fossil fuels]. The pipelines that were built for gas can one day be used for hydrogen [hinting at the planned future of fossil fuel companies as they see it: blue hydrogen, ie, hydrogen from fossil fuels with carbon sequestration paid for by taxpayers].

How do you judge the development of investments in the field of sustainability in general?

As in any emerging market, there is bad behavior. But that does not mean that everything is bad. There has to be a long term comprehensive plan and a phased approach if it is to be done in a fair and equitable way. The only way to do it fairly and equitably in Europe is for governments to subsidise energy costs [hinting at subsidies for fossil fuel companies to implement CCS or CCUS].

What do you think of the action of governments before the crisis?

In many places in Europe, there were debates about limiting supply while demand remained constant. And so we had a big imbalance in hydrocarbon [fossil fuel] reinvestment. Now we see how energy prices have risen [suggesting that trying to reduce the extraction of fossil fuels can only result in high energy prices, ie, pain for everyone].

But how do you make the transition to zero emissions?

It is like a balloon. If you take out a little air, the balloon shrinks if you don't reinflate it. The same applies to conventional sources of oil and gas: if you deflate the balloon, you lose about 8% of the available energy every year. In the case of fracking, the figure is as high as 20%. In order to maintain stable energy costs for households in Europe, it is therefore essential that we continue to reinvest in these areas [justifying BlackRock’s planet-dooming investments].

What about alternative energy sources?

We have always believed that there needs to be a long-term strategy to use traditional energy sources [ie, fossil fuels] combined with investment in new technologies to replace traditional ones. Now solar and wind energy are certainly competitive with oil or gas. But the problem is that there is not always sun and wind [totally ignoring storage and the fact hybrid wind/solar plants need very little of it]. This is why wind and solar energy will not be able to prevail on their own at present. New technologies are needed.

De passage à Zurich, le patron du plus grand gestionnaire de fortune du monde se confie sur le développement durable, les cryptomonnaies, la situation mondiale et ses racines à Credit Suisse.

08/09/2022

Life-cycle GHG emissions over the lifetime of BEVs are substantially less than for ICEVs, even in countries with substantial fossil-fuel power generation:

https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Global-LCA-passenger-cars-jul2021_0.pdf

The above study assumes batteries last as long as the vehicle and will need to be entirely replaced for each vehicle.

However, reality shows that batteries on average last much longer than the vehicle and can be reused:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/carltonreid/2022/08/01/electric-car-batteries-lasting-longer-than-predicted-delays-recycling-programs

This means the yellow portion of the emissions bars for BEVs will actually be shorter and BEVs will therefore emit even less over their lifetimes.

04/08/2022

https://iflscience.com/-64562

…researchers at the University of Waterloo in Canada found that just 200 companies (known as the Carbon Underground 200 or CU200) own 98 percent of the potential emissions from the world's remaining oil, gas, and coal reserves…

CU200 fossil fuel reserves have the potential to produce 674 gigatons of carbon emissions, more than enough to push global average temperatures beyond 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Within the CU200 group, just 10 shareholders own 49.5 percent of the potential emissions from the world's largest energy firms…

These actors included: Blackrock, Vanguard, the Government of India, State Street, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Dimensional Fund Advisors, Life insurance Corporation, Norges Bank, Fidelity Investments, and Capital Group.

Also significant is there are only 2 private oil companies in the top 10 (8 are state-owned) and they produce only 12% of the top 10's cumulated production (4.1/34.8 million barrels/day):

https://www.offshore-technology.com/analysis/companies-by-oil-production/

This means any attempt at leaving oil in the ground must involve the governments of these state-owned oil companies: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Venezuela, Iran, Norway, Brasil... etc

02/08/2022

Switzerland's Nant de Drance pumped hydro energy storage system cost 2 billion CHF (around 2.1 billion USD) for a storage capacity of 20 million kWh and peak charge/discharge capacity of 900 MW: a giant 105 USD/kWh battery.

It is 80% efficient, round trip, which means it returns 80% of the electricity it takes in back to the grid.

It has by itself increased Switzerland's installed energy capacity by 33%.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/01/world/water-battery-switzerland-renewable-energy-climate-scn-hnk-spc-intl/index.html

The good news is there are around 600,000 potential sites for similar pumped hydro energy storage systems around the world, spread out on every continent and only 1% of these would be needed to meet total global energy storage needs.

https://www.nationalmap.gov.au/ =s-h3So4iEf8t2cGpdzjOwwIjI4iaU

25/06/2022

Human activities have caused global temperatures to increase by 1.25°C, and the current emissions trajectory suggests that we will exceed 1.5°C in less than 10 years...

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abo3378

As Dr. Katherine Hayhoe has frequently remarked, beyond 1.5°C, the situation for large parts of the planet may well become unmitigatable, and significant areas of the planet uninhabitable. Not a single organism will remain unaffected. This could start occuring within the next 10 years - not at the end of the century. Simply put, the world that we grew up in is gone, never to return in our lifetimes, nor even those of our grandchildren. We are in uncharted territory, in conditions that have not previously prevailed in all of human civilisation.

06/03/2022

NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and other federal agencies conclude sea levels along U.S. coastlines will rise between 10 to 12 inches (25 to 30 centimeters) on average above today’s levels by 2050:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/sea-level-to-rise-up-to-a-foot-by-2050-interagency-report-finds

About 2 feet (0.6 meters) of sea level rise along the U.S. coastline is increasingly likely between 2020 and 2100 because of emissions to date. Failing to curb future emissions could cause an additional 1.5 - 5 feet (0.5 - 1.5 meters) of rise for a total of 3.5 - 7 feet (1.1 - 2.1 meters) by the end of this century:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report.html

From section 2.4 of the full report, sea levels in 2150 would reach 2.2 meters in the intermediate scenario, but could go as high as 3.9 meters:

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/hazards/sealevelrise/sealevelrise-tech-report-sections.html

07/12/2021

Indonesia has a real plan to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and impose a carbon tax to ensure a just transition to a low carbon economy. Others may take note:

"...transforming the economy to meet the new goal would cost $20 billion per year in 2021 and 2022, and an average of $150 to $200 billion per year between 2021 to 2030, or 3.4% to 4.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

To finance that, the government must phase out fossil fuel subsidies and reallocate some investments, on top of generating revenue from the recently passed carbon tax...

By cutting fossil fuel subsidies and setting up carbon trading, the government could generate savings and new revenue, respectively, to the equivalent of 2.2% of GDP in 2030."

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/indonesia-needs-200-bln-annual-investment-2021-2030-decarbonise-govt-2021-10-13/

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