07/01/2020
Speaking of Climate..What we have to do and what may be coming.
DON’T SIT AND WAIT! PARTICIPATE! SLASH CARBON EMISSIONS NOW
The purpose of this piece is first, to look at why it is that we can’t count on government alone to reduce by half our greenhouse gas emissions over the next ten years. As we know, last October the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that the world will to have to cut its greenhouse gas emissions 50% by 2030 if we are to prevent uncontrollable global warming. Yet US fossil fuel emissions actually went up 3.4% this past year, so we are starting out by going backwards. Let’s quickly review how dire our situation has become. Then, motivate ourselves to transform concern into slashing our fossil fuel use, so that whenever and at what level government action finally comes into play, we will have greatly increased the chance that we do achieve a 50% reduction by 2030.
In this past year’s climate news, more heating and air conditioning due to exceptionally cold and hot weather is creating a vicious circle. We’re increasing our fossil fuel use to counter more extreme temperatures caused by increasing our fossil fuel use. Paris temperatures reached a record 108.9 degrees F in July, nearly that of an average June day in Death Valley.
Humans can’t survive, much less work, when temperatures exceed 120 degrees F as they have this year in South Asia and Africa. Nor can crops and animals. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions even at the rate agreed to by the Paris Accords on Climate Change will fall so far short of what’s needed that temps by mid-century could average 5 degrees F. hotter than today’s. A billion people could be forced to migrate. Arctic permafrost not predicted to melt for 70 more years is melting now, releasing far more methane gas.
Since I first wrote about global warming 9 years ago, temperature and atmospheric carbon levels increased at the high end of what climate scientists predicted would occur if we failed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Because we did fail to, the year by which it becomes too late to avoid out-of- control global heating if we don’t slash our emissions now has been changed from 2045 to 2030.
Renewable energy technology’s advance in quality, availability and price is so impressive that by aggressively employing it now we would meet the IPCC goal of cutting fossil fuel use by 50% in a
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Some of the main ingredients for this are:
Massive increases in wind and solar installations large and small across the country to generate electricity
Massive increases in electric vehicle use. Using renewable energy to charge them would make them even more efficient.
Constructing an all-electric passenger rail system. Burning far less carbon, they already compete in Europe and Asia with air travel in speed and access for trips of up to 625 miles. Also expansion of urban to suburban and rural public transportation.
Accelerating weatherization and insulation. The technology is simple and costs are low. Locally organized volunteers can do much of it.
Developing storage capacity for solar and wind energy by means of a national grid.
There are no surprises here. These are proven, cost effective alternatives to fossil fuels. Technology and manufacturing ability are not the problems we face. The problem is us. We refuse so far to employ solutions we have right in front of us on the scale needed to save us from a horrible climate future.
Companies are rapidly creating and financing renewable energy projects. However, states and public working together need to encourage the industry’s growth but shape its future in accord with the Green New Deal principles of sharing its benefits justly. Vigorously developing community solar farms could help ensure industrial-scale renewable energy doesn’t gain harmful dominance. But efforts by local
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government and by private non-profit groups are lagging, a serious problem, since most Americans live where home solar installations aren’t practical. Why is this? Reluctance to risk personal money? Lack of confidence/skills to make a solar farm happen? Waiting for government financing? We badly need community solar right away. Private sector(fossil Fuel) is not willing to give up their economic model Since the first very successful release of electric cars in the 70’s they have actively fought in everyway possible to grab the minds of the public. Promoting unrealistic fears. These actions should NOW be considered criminal . We need to face reality: The fossil fuel industry is a rogue terrorist operation. Here in Maine CMP refuses to license multiple solar farms developed simultaneously in a particular region. Only one at a time per region which may take years to accomplish what needs to be done quickly
Non-profit organizations in Maine train volunteers to custom-measure and assemble window inserts by volunteers and recipients. Household savings average $270 on fossil fuels each winter and pay for themselves over two winters. People with low incomes receive them free or at reduced cost. This popular way to weatherize would reduce fossil fuel use at low cost on a massive scale if employed nationally.
On the other hand, two technologies touted for at least a decade as saving us from having to give up fossil fuels continue to be promoted. Permanently sequestering carbon is one, but just as it was then, it remains far too costly to employ at scale soon enough to help us over the next ten years. (Hopefully it can later in the century). Geoengineering plans appear to remain centered on shooting sulfate into the upper atmosphere to reduce the sun’s intensity. If we fail to meet a 50% reduction target in time, I fear we will resort to it. It’s a cheap, fast solution that will further acidify oceans and harmfully alter weather patterns, thereby risking conflict between regions of the planet it benefits and those it harms. It’s time to quit counting on these methods to rescue us from slashing our greenhouse gas emissions this next decade.
:Depending on short moment gains by artificial insemination of our atmosphere is NO answer.
We need to face the current reality!! As an industrialized race of humans it’s called Austerity!! Cut our electrical use by 40% ASAP. each and every Gov’t agency, business and household need to find a way to do this ASAP . This can only be accomplished by a fair and just means to all people. Endless growth is a myth. It must stop asap. Smart Growth by restoring the green balance is the only way forward
Yet to be determined is our commitment to halting forest destruction. Drought, heat and fire caused by global warming accelerates forest destruction. During some recent years, and certainly this one, several of the world’s largest forests emitted more carbon than they absorbed. Humans have already destroyed half the Earth’s forests. Unless we quickly slash our fossil fuel use, Earth will lose far more to (1), logging and raising methane-emitting cattle, (2), farmland added to make up for what’s lost to desertification plus world population growth, (3), vast areas that are now too hot and dry to re-grow trees, (4), vast conifer forests dying from insect predators that thrive on hotter temperatures and (5), replacement failure of tree species whose range has become too warm by species from further south. Cities need to Reboot: Greening cities, For every new construction, commercial or residential at least one new park or city farm space must be developed , smart growth with no further expansion , but only expanding large green areas that are planted with vegetables , greenery or trees
The real value of forests today is their enormous ability to remove atmospheric carbon, but humans are busy destroying what would help save us. We must make forests too valuable to remove or destroy and end our history of turning our most exploitive instincts onto trees. For many years to come, forests will remain the only major means we have to sequester carbon. Either we give up fossil fuels fast, or we lose most of what’s left of Earth’s forests. Preserving and expanding carbon-removing forests must be
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integrated with the technologies I listed. In this era of exploitive capitalism and nationalism, we must purchase and save all the forestland we can.
In contrast to when I first wrote about the climate threat nearly a decade ago, we know a great deal about the path its taking. It was still plausible back then to claim we didn’t know enough to believe climate change would proceed so swiftly and destructively. Today, the cause and effect relationship between our fossil fuel use and the climate crisis couldn’t be clearer. Now having the technology to achieve a 50% reduction by 2030 creates a solid framework to work within.
Slashing greenhouse gas emissions will, I think, require substantial, though not ruinous, reductions in our overall energy use. But it will mainly require full substitution of fossil fuels by renewable energy, with fully half of that achieved by 2030. Since air travel will almost certainly remain fossil fuel dependent, adding big surcharges to all fares and investing it in renewable energy could compensate. Otherwise, by rapidly and fully utilizing the proven renewable energy solutions listed above, we would meet the target.
AUSTERITY NOW : We do not have the convenience luxury of transitioning slowly to renewables as we would have had a decade ago. There now requires an incentive and emergency in order to meet our goals later down the line in 2030. Without Austerity practice we will not meet our timeframe
GOVERNMENT AND FOSSIL FUEL INDUSTRY BLOCK ACTION ON CLIMATE
The gap between what we know and how we respond is now so wide that it can be hard to understand how, in the face of an unfolding climate disaster we could prevent by taking swift action, we instead take so little. Let’s look first at how government today paralyzes action.
For starts, let’s look at one of the most destructive lies ever told: the climate hoax claim. Without evidence, climate scientists, NASA, NOAA and indirectly the Pentagon are accused of conspiring with an underground ‘Deep State’ to create a phony climate threat. This right wing fabrication binds together a movement and a president that requires enemies and plots to thrive, together with an all-powerful fossil fuel industry. Climate hoax propaganda aims to cripple people’s ability to sort out for themselves the truth about global warming. By denying human-caused climate change, President Trump irresponsibly ignores 30 years of consistent scientific evidence presented to him by his own government’s scientists.
Though its ‘old news’, we must keep hammering hard at the origin, purpose and damage caused by the climate hoax claim. It’s actually ‘new news’ for many who are just now becoming concerned about global warming. They need to hear loud and clear the truth of just how preposterous and self-serving the foundation of organized opposition to action on climate really is. Climate hoaxsters create the chief obstacle to climate action. We must repeatedly discredit them.
Oil and gas production has surged to its highest level ever. More states have joined the ranks of major producers and refiners of fossil fuels. Conflict may intensify in Congress and across the country between some major fossil fuel producing states powerfully influenced by industry and most remaining states. This is taking place within a dysfunctional political system fractured and weakened by ideology and big money influence. Worse, the judiciary’s rightward lurch threatens failure of legislation restricting fossil fuel production or imposing a carbon tax in litigation before the Supreme Court.
A Democrat elected president in 2020 who carries only one House of Congress may remain unable to enact effective climate legislation. Even if Democrats win both the House and the Senate, it’s not clear if more conservative Democrats and those from big fossil fuel producing states would approve anywhere near the level of funding needed. Even if all went well politically it would take years to fully employ the
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renewable energy pieces I described, especially because government action is required to create the nation-wide transmission grid renewable energy must have to reliably power all parts of the nation.
If we go on making little or no reductions in our fossil fuel use, we will of course be left with having to make extremely steep cuts during the final few years before 2030. I suspect that if the current pattern of inaction continues another 4 or 5 years we won’t be able to pull it off.
Can climate action by the states help make up for federal inaction? So far, a few states have helped reduce fossil fuel use and increase renewable energy use through regulation. However, their unwillingness so far to raise taxes to better fund renewable energy, create incentives to buy electric vehicles, home solar and weatherize severely limit their impact. States also appear unwilling to raise gas taxes high enough to actually reduce driving. Even so, these are promising and motivating starts.
Maine now has an enforceable mandate requiring electric utilities to make an 80% switch from fossil fuels to renewable energy by 2030, a big step forward if adopted by many other states. Combining renewably generated energy to power electric vehicles with incentives to buy them would be very effective. As useful would be greatly speeded up placement of fast charge stations. States can do much more, yet their ultimate capacity to raise additional revenue to fund renewable energy is limited. If most states follow those in the lead (a big if), actions by states could make a substantial difference, but never a decisive one.
The federal government and to a lesser extent the states have largely lost control of the direction and pace of action on climate to private enterprise and individual Americans. It’s critical that we individuals, businesses and communities make a big dent in the nation’s fossil fuel use. Once millions of Americans have done so, they will have proven that technology and human determination work effectively together. And they will have created a powerful constituency to push government forward.
The big question is: what can we do to motivate Americans to quickly and deeply reduce their greenhouse gas emissions when thus far, so little has worked?
PERSUADING AMERICANS TO SLASH THEIR OWN FOSSIL FUEL USE
Individual choices Americans make about our own fossil fuel use is the proverbial elephant in the room. We consumers burn most of the fossil fuel in the US. The choices we make will decide if we succeed or fail to slash our emissions 50% by 2030. Yet we rarely talk about the elephant-sized role we play in defining the course of climate change.
Consumer choice is nearly sacrosanct. The right to consume as we please can approach in its intensity that of an unspoken ideology. As such it resists moves to cut fossil fuel use. It is easily exploited by the right- wing who claim climate change advocates are out to crush basic American freedoms. Nearly immunized from having to account for the needs of the wider world, mass consumerism drives out-of-control emissions that jeopardizes our future.
In relation to consumerism it’s been said that many Americans opposing action on climate don’t deny its reality; they dislike disrupting their lifestyles to respond to it. Yet we could aim effective climate related publicity toward lifestyle-oriented people. Glossy brochures and articles: ‘Protect Your Lifestyle: Join Millions of Others Who Protect Theirs With Sun Power,’ with photo of nice home with EV, roof-top solar, smiling couple and a simple, clear discussion of why this response to worsening climate change offers their best protection.
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Twenty million, one out of 15 Americans, rallied for the first Earth Day in 1970, paving the way for the nation’s first major environmental legislation. So far, many fewer have rallied in the US over global warming, even though alarm mounts. Environmental, climate action groups and movements who sponsor these rallies appear splintered, as if they are either unwilling to or don’t fully know how to work together as a united front to create maximum impact.
Certainly it has been necessary for people to establish their identities and need for justice by age, race, gender and class in relation to climate disruption. Youth sponsored rallies are especially effective at drawing in those climate disruption will harm most.
Yet in the end, climate disruption doesn’t distinguish among populations. Perhaps it’s time for the movement to reach toward the power of unitedness and take a leap in political effectiveness by also holding rallies intended for all, visible to all, and proving to everyone the climate movement’s strength to make big changes. I mean rallying 25 million, sponsored by an extremely open-door inclusive climate coalition. Such activism, far from unique to 1970, existed previously in our history on a similar scale at times of great crisis. Growing alarm about this ultimate threat to humans and Earth today create conditions ripe for activism on a scale that fully responds to what’s at stake.
In contrast, we also need to put in practice methodical, persistent yet gentle and often more private approaches toward the many Americans who remain unengaged or misinformed about climate that take into account social, cultural or other barriers to changing fossil fuel habits. These efforts could break some ground on the most difficult problem regarding global warming in the US: communicating its dangers persuasively enough to initiate change.
Take someone active within a social, neighborhood, work, or church setting who raises growing concerns about global warming. A few may identify with her own initial resistance to slashing her fossil fuel use. She helps ready others to take action on climate change as she herself is doing. She is willing to step beyond her personal comfort zone by gently violating unwritten rules about what not to discuss in social settings. Meeting with other volunteers like herself increases her effectiveness. A movement coalesces whose dedication increases their influence as climate conditions continue to deteriorate. As fears raised by climate science combine with worsening climate disasters scare a lot more people, this scenario becomes realistic.
Successful movement building often starts as small groups marked by relationship, persistence, reaching out and developing shared beliefs directed toward attaining vital goals intended for the common good. We need them now to assist the many of us who remain fearful of major change but are aware that the current climate situation is unsupportable.
In this time of middle class decline, those in the upper third of income and wealth can most afford to counter the climate threat right away. They typically burn the most fossil fuel. They can slash their fossil fuel use and continue to live well. They are most able to purchase solar electric units and electric vehicles in numbers that when combined produce large cuts. Most urgently needed now are the speediest and deepest reductions possible; achieving that will benefit everyone.
CLIMATE AND ECONOMIC REALITY
Thirty years of research by climate scientists worldwide supports the International Panel on Climate Change’s conclusions as fact: unless the world reduces its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030, out of control global heating will occur. Examine what your grounds are for doubting that. Look at the rate of increase of disastrous floods, droughts, wildfires, unlivable heat and sea-level rise so far. Project much
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greater rates of increase very soon if we take too little action. Climate disruption will directly and harmfully affect us all. It will exert an increasing drag on society’s functioning and shrink our economic prospects. Millions will suffer investment losses. Retirement savings will shrink.
Please don’t imagine that the IPCC’s prediction is exaggerated. If anything, these consensus forecasts underestimate rates of global warming. Failing means a child starting first grade today will be faced with out of control climate change by the time she graduates from high school.
Try to let go of the idea that our states and nation alone will take care of things for us by funding, taxing, and regulating our way to a 50% reduction in a decade. People who say they can’t cut their own emissions until government tells them to, can try to understand that when government finally gets around to it, it will likely be too late - unless millions of us do it on our own in the meantime. A majority of Americans must buy-in soon or at least acquiesce; otherwise, we will fail.
I ask all of you who can to invest in supporting a transition to a half-renewable energy economy by 2030. This is not charitable giving. It is a sound investment decision that benefits you, the nation, the world and therefore healthy economies that promote prosperity and maintain wealth.
Let’s say you’re saving or investing for the future. Looking at the big picture, you decide to invest an amount that, for example, helps finance a solar farm for your community or preserves some woodland, for which there is no financial return anticipated. Conventionally speaking, an investment that returns no money is foolish, especially without any guarantee that a lot of people across the country will invest similarly. But you yourself see that out-of-control global warming will deeply harm all that you know and love. Would your children, say, benefit more from a little extra inheritance or instead from your investment, that along with many other similar investments, goes toward reducing global warming’s harm to them? The principle of individual investment for individual gain breaks down in the face of world-wide climate disruption. It turns out that investments of this kind that benefits all people is what most benefits you and your children.
As for the “many others”, we’ll know within a few years if we did collectively develop the wisdom to understand that our national government abandoned its duty to protect us from dangerous climate change, and that we did step in and accomplished a whole lot ourselves until government relearned what its job is.
A renewable energy future may become real only when, say, massive drought-caused crop failures hit several continents at once, sending food prices soaring, record flooding disables South Florida and New York where temps soar to 108 degrees and wildfires burn twenty times more forest than ever before. Financial markets will make climate disruption real for doubters by plummeting as the true extent of economic wounding and the prospect of its worsening sinks in.
That year will surely come with worse to follow. If coherent preparations are in place, perhaps disaster could become opportunity. Finally shaken into making a great shift, individuals, communities, institutions, business and government could put into rapid motion a national strategy to resolve an extreme, immediate threat to our nation’s future for which we marshal all our resources to manage. An atmosphere of overt crisis could finally elect a government that does its job.
Its global warming that poses the greatest threat to our national security and even our survival, much more so than foreign powers do. After all, they will be struggling with the same effects of climate disruption. What if a substantial part of the defense budget was used to prevent US defeat by the effects of global warming? Unless states and nation cease their blanket opposition to new taxes, I don’t know where else the big sums we need will come from to enable the US to transition to renewable energy.
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OLDER, YOUNGER AND CLIMATE
Getting older both individually and as a nation can make us more cautious, prone to fear and a bit resistant to change, especially if it’s perceived to be big, unknown or unsafe. We may accept the general idea that global warming exists and we need to respond to it, yet harbor fear and the impulse to resist change if it means changing our personal lives to support a vigorous response.
In that light, let’s look at the response so far to electric vehicles. In 2018 half of all vehicles sold in Norway, a cold, mountainous country were EVs. The figures were 2.1% in the US. Perhaps EV’s environmental advantages and reliability aren’t publicized enough. Perhaps habitual caution, fear and doubt override these messages. Perhaps fear of change can include fear of losing the familiarity of our traditional car culture and its connection to a fading American Dream.
For all the difficulties we older generations have faced, previous generations gave us the most stable and prosperous lives the world has ever known. But perhaps we deluded ourselves into forgetting the innate wisdom of limits by heedlessly exceeding by far the Earth’s capacity to provide in perpetuity. Our greenhouse gas pollution has already permanently shrunk Earth’s future potential to provide. Younger generations will be faced with a rougher, more unpredictable world and they know it. Global warming is not theoretical for them. They have an existential stake in its course and outcome; their futures are on the line.
I ask us older generations to partake of the energy, courage and determination of younger generations. Can we move beyond the confines of our chronological age? Can we recognize that our lives exist within a continuum of life not meant to be severed by generations who, by excessively benefitting themselves, impoverish the prospects of generations to come?
Let’s stop what harm we remain capable of stopping and instead release our own potential energy and resources to share with them. To repeat, the way to do so is by cutting in half our greenhouse gas emissions in ten years starting now.
Decision making power and resources rest mostly in the hands of us older people who often don’t “get” why it’s so urgent to transition as fast and as well as we possibly can from a status quo in collapse, toward making a more unpredictable, difficult world a place that can at least remain livable. Let’s make way for younger generations to lead. As things stand now, we’re bequeathing them far too much greenhouse gas, laden them with scary data, but provided them no launching pad and little protection or direction for a journey whose outcome is unknown.
What response will we in the end provide? Will it be meagre, characterized by an absence of awareness that condemns our descendants to lives so hard they can manage only by shooting sulfate into the atmosphere? Or will we give them every chance to enjoy good lives by fulfilling our obligation to them during the few years that remain to do so.
I’m no expert in the matters I’ve discussed. My claim to eligibility to write this is in line with research published in a recent issue of the Atlantic concluding that members of the general public do better than most experts at correctly analyzing and predicting future outcomes. I wish for vastly more people to speak out about how our dependence on fossil fuel causes the crisis of global warming and that slashing, then ending its use is its cure. Let’s take action by stepping out of our safety zone to talk to people about the climate crisis, its cause and cure. Let’s vigorously support and vote for politicians who will take action without our waiting for them to do so. Let’s slash personal fossil fuel use. Let’s understand that
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substituting renewable energy puts the lie to the notion that separating ourselves from fossil fuels will leave our lives confined, dark and dreary. That separation is our only hope for survival.
Thanks to everyone who read this. I hope that even in the tiniest way this piece can help keep Earth habitable for humans and all else who share our planet with us.
Doug Bowen, Porter, Maine, 10/15/19
[email protected]
I had to confine the scope of this piece mostly to the US, although the responses that either fail or succeed these next 10 years will be the entire world’s to accomplish. Despite its blemished reputation, the example the US sets remains the one the world most looks to, either to emulate or to avoid.
And bearing in mind that if the US does cut its emissions by 50%, its emissions per-person will remain no better than what Europe’s is today, that although China burns twice as much fossil fuel as we, we still burn twice as much per person as they, and if greenhouse gas levels rise a bit in Africa it’s because people are for the first time getting a fan, a light, a village water pump and a cellphone charger.
SOURCES
Page 1.
US fossil fuel emissions went up...
Rhodium Group: US Greenhouse Gas emissions Paragraph beginning: Humans can’t survive...
Conclusions reached by climate research as reported on Public Radio’s Living On Earth, Aug 2019. All electric...for trips up to 625 miles...
As reported in Bloomberg News, summer 2019. Page 2.
Permanently sequestering carbon is one...
In Green Biz, 2019: New CO2 capture technology is not the magic bullet against climate change, by Chris Hawes, Keele University, UK
Washington Post, May 31, 2018: The Inconvenient truth about Carbon Capture.
Non Profit Organizations in Maine...
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For example, WindowDressers – Insulating Window Inserts. Replacement failure of tree species...
Reported in New York Times summer 2019: Intensive development in metro DC combine with intensive farming in MD and PA block southerly species from advancing into New England as climate warms.
Page 4.
Twenty million, one out of...
US EPA, 1985: Birth of Earth Day and birth of EPA, by Jack Lewis. Page 6.
Let’s look at our response so far to electric vehicles...
Wikipedia: Passenger plug-in market share of total new car sales between 2013 and 2018 for selected Countries.