06/12/2022
There are a few signs you can look for to determine if something is a Conspiracy Theory (from Michael Shermer's book, Conspiracy, https://amzn.to/3VBsSPQ):
Patternicity - You must 'connect the dots' between events that are not causally connected. This is related to the correlation not causation cliché.
Agenticity - The agents behind the conspiracy would need nearly superhuman power to pull it off.
Complexity - It is complex, and its successful completion demands a large number of elements coming together at just the right moment and in the proper sequence.
People - The more people involved in the conspiracy theory, the less likely it is to be true.
Grandiosity - If the conspiracy theory encompasses some grandiose ambition for control over a nation, economy, or political system, and especially if it aims for world domination, it is almost certainly false.
Scale - When the conspiracy theory ratchets up from small events that might be true to much larger events that have much lower probabilities of being true, it is very likely false.
Significance - If the conspiracy theory assigns portentous and sinister meanings and interpretations to what are most likely innocuous or insignificant events, it is most likely false.
Accuracy - If the conspiracy theory commingles facts and speculations without distinguishing between the two and without assigning degrees of probability or of factuality to the components of its claim, it is likely to be false.
Paranoia - The conspiracy theorist is extremely and indiscriminately suspicious of any and all government agencies or private corporations.
Falsifiability - Conspiracy theorists typically refuse to consider alternative explanations.
Prejudice - If a certain person, organization or entity is involved, it must be true (or false). The source is all the verification we need.
