East Florida Storm Chasing

12/06/2024

I will be moving all meteorology related posting to my country-wide severe weather account: Derek Centrone - MediaRology and Chasing. Go give it a follow!

08/06/2024

14/05/2024

Round 2 for most of Florida:

A strong line of storms is currently setting up on a baroclinic boundary moving into Florida. Bands of storms are starting to organize, and will continue to organize over the coming hours as this system moves over the already destabilized airmass over the panhandle, and into most of central and eastern parts of the state. This storm will eject eastward, posing mostly a severe wind threat, but small hail, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out with this system, especially as it intensifies into central Florida after sunrise.

13/05/2024

An extremely dangerous severe warned line of storms is moving into Florida now. 80mph winds are expected along this line. This line is capable of doing damage similar to a hurricane or tornado. It will continue to move south eastbound towards Pensacola, then continue to towards the Panama City over the next hour.

09/05/2024

Area to watch over the next several hours:

A broken line of cells continues to push southeast bound ahead of a strong outflow boundary. This system should remain relatively consistent with strength as it pushes further south. Conditions will remain favorable for all severe weather modes, with strong wind and isolated tornadoes as the primary threat across southern Georgia, but will shift primarily towards just a severe wind threat by the time this system makes it into Florida.

08/05/2024

Since severe weather season is at its peak elsewhere in the US, I’ve made a second weather account to account for weather across the US. Go follow Derek Centrone - MediaRology and Chasing for country-wide updates!

28/04/2024

As a chaser, a student meteorologist, and as somebody who had a passion about severe weather, it is important to remember one thing. While chasing is important, there are two things that are more important than anything: human life and everything that people work for. People lost everything over the last few days in these historic severe weather events. Whether it’s loved ones, property, or their livelihoods, it’s all important. While you are chasing these tornadoes, and seeing this footage as a historical event, I want everyone just to remember the lifelong effects that these events have on people, and the fortune that I have writing this, and you all have reading this to not be affected by these events.

11/04/2024

VIOLENT PDS tornado just went through St. Augustine. This is a reminder that these storms are INCREDIBLY dangerous, and any cell is capable of becoming tornadic at any moment. Keeping our neighbors up north in the affected areas in our thoughts.

11/04/2024

Looking at a severe weather event for tomorrow with the potential for several tornadoes as a line of supercells fires over the panhandle/big bend region and follows the I-75 corridor southeast bound. While a general lack of surface based instability could potentially limit the severity of this event, shear profiles and hodographs should allow for potentially large tornadoes from any supercells that are able to strengthen appropriately. All modes of severe weather are possible, but tornadoes and severe wind are the two main threats with these storms.

08/04/2024

While not the best place to view the eclipse, Florida still ended up with a few highlights:

Daytona Beach, FL

03/04/2024

Tomorrow (4/3) is shaping up to be a potentially eventful severe weather day for most of the state of Florida.

A line of thunderstorms is expected to fire along a strong cold front tomorrow morning as it moves southeasterly across the state. While diurnal heating will remain relatively limited due to the morning-mid afternoon timing of this system, an existing warm moist sector ahead of this cold front will allow for relatively widespread airmass destabilization ahead of this system. A 100-120kt upper level jet stream should also aid in widespread ascent to help drive this storm system. While straight line wind and small hail are the likely main severe threats, NAM soundings have shown elongated hodographs, proving adequate for potentially numerous supercell or tornado spin-ups on some stronger cells along the line.

24/03/2024

A large supercell passes over Daytona Beach yesterday afternoon

3/23/24

20/03/2024

A throwback to January 16, 2022:

A beautiful tornadic supercell makes its way towards West Palm Beach, FL

19/03/2024

Hopefully heavy jackets haven’t been packed away yet… after quite a bit of heat lately, a very cold start to tomorrow morning following the cold front passage tonight. Temperatures as low as 40 can be seen across most of northern Florida, with feels like temperatures as low as the mid to high 30s.

17/03/2024

Round one of severe weather is expected to impact Florida tonight into most of tomorrow.

An shortwave is expected to eject along an upper trough tomorrow morning ahead of a strong surface frontal system that will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms across most of the day. An upper level 60-80kt jet brought on by this shortwave amplification should help set the stage for an isolated severe setup. With limited heating, and the presence of an EML, surface to mid-level instability could be shunted, and could put a damper on a widespread severe potential. However, areas of elevated mid-level instability where midlevel capping isn’t as prominent, especially between the panhandle and central Florida should allow for local stronger cells to become the dominant threat for severe weather. While wind and hail are the main threats with this system, a supercell spin up cannot be ruled out with holographs pointing towards areas of locally elevated shear.

Stay tuned for more updates.

05/03/2024

An MCV positioned just south of the Panama City area over the gulf continues to strengthen as it moves towards most of Florida this afternoon into this evening. This complex is expected to organize into a quasi-linear convective system this afternoon as it ejects eastward. While strong to locally severe wind is expected to be the main threat for this complex, isolated supercells and even a possible tornado spin up cannot be ruled out across most of Florida tonight into tomorrow morning.

09/01/2024

SEVERE WEATHER BRIEFING 1/9/24 TORNADO OUTBREAK POTENTIAL:

A large squall line is expected to eject across most of the southeast tomorrow afternoon into the evening ahead of an advancing cold front. A strong low level jet should allow for very high low level shear values, and a corridor of instability ahead of this line should allow for a widespread outbreak of both severe wind and numerous tornadoes, some with the possibility of becoming of EF 2+. While the majority of the risk area lies within the panhandle of Florida down into most of central Florida, areas of both the Florida southern gulf coast, and as far as up to the southern coastal Carolinas are also at risk, especially later into the evening. As this instability corridor is expected to weaken into the evening, storms are still expected to remain strong or severe into tomorrow night.

Stay safe and stay alert. Stay tuned for watches or warnings.

15/12/2023

Florida severe weather briefing for 12/16/2023:

As this extratropical low pressure system forms and strengthens, strong, possibly tropical storm-force wind is expected across most of the peninsula as this system ejects northeastward Saturday night. Despite marginal bouyancy and generally widespread subsidence across the region, adequate forcing and favorable shear profiles should be able to sustain imbedded supercell arcs, which could support an isolated threat across the central region of Florida, following the I-4 corridor. A localized marginal hail threat also should not be ruled out with some of the stronger supercells.

Local flooding is likely, with several inches of rain possible in areas of Central Florida, mostly north of Orlando. Coastal flooding should also be considered as a threat, especially along parts of the northern east coast, as localized storm surge could be observed.

12/10/2023

10/11/2023-10/12/2023 Overnight and early morning tornado event briefing:

A strengthening low pressure system, currently located just west of the Florida peninsula, is expected to push eastward overnight across Florida and into the Atlantic by midday tomorrow. Strong damaging wind, and heavy rainfall, potentially leading to localized flooding is expected along the track of this system.

Despite locally strong wind with this system, the widespread possibility for tornadoes across most of Central Florida still remains the primary threat with this system. As this low moves eastward, bands of supercells are expected to develop later tonight, and into tomorrow morning, and strengthen as they move eastward into conditions favorable for tornado development.

25/09/2023

A beautiful mothership supercell over Ormond Beach, FL to start off this week of potential severe weather.

21/09/2023

9/21/2023 Invest 99L Observations:

As of this morning, Invest 99L still remains a non-tropical low off the cost of Florida. It is still unclear how this system will organize as it moves north-northeastward towards the Carolinas and the Northeast.

Satellite imagery is showing a surface low developing, and it is expected to fully develop by tomorrow morning. Per model guidance, this system has the potential to pick up tropical characteristics as it moves over warmer water, but it is still unclear to what extent this will occur.

Regardless of whether or not this storm becomes subtropical or tropical, the threats of strong wind and flooding cannot be ignored with this system along its path, and the surrounding areas.

This system is not expected to directly impact Florida, however storms are expected to continue for the next 2 days while this system organizes, before it ejects northward.

14/09/2023

A brief funnel forming off of yesterday’s cell that moved through Daytona Beach

30/08/2023

8/29/2023 Hurricane Idalia Update:

While tropical storm conditions are already occurring across most of western Florida while outer bands start to make landfall, one of several feeder band squalls is beginning to make landfall on the west coast of Florida. Besides the primary threats of the eventual landfall of this storm, these squalls can have equally devastating effects with tropical storm force wind, and tornadoes. Costal flooding is also being reported with these squalls as well.

Even though these squalls are often overlooked, they can be just as dangerous as the rest of the storm, and should be taken just as seriously.

29/08/2023

8/29/2023 Hurricane Idalia briefing:

Current track and model guidance expects landfall as a major hurricane in the Big Bend region of Florida. While there is still uncertainty on the exact point of landfall due to ridging off the east coast, and the cold front, which would influence a further eastern track stalling, models point toward a potential landfall from anywhere between Tallahassee and Cedar Key. Rapid intensification is also expected to continue as the storm continues to move towards land.

Life threatening storm surge and coastal flooding has already begun along the west coast, and will continue throughout tonight into tomorrow along most of the west coast, including the highlighted areas, and down into Tampa Bay. Tornadoes and waterspouts have already been reported with this storm, and will continue well into tomorrow. Tropical storm force winds are also being reported across parts of western Florida, and will intensify as Idalia moves further towards landfall.

More updates to come as certainty increases on exact points of landfall and track.