24/01/2026
Friday, Jan 23, 2026, 9:01PM: Good evening, Cincinnati Weather Spot. As you know, one of the things that I have shared consistently before is that I would rather be late than be wrong. Make no mistake - every outlet has been talking about this storm coming, I just was waiting until I saw tonight's model runs to put out my thoughts, timing, and all of that fun stuff.
One thing that usually never happens is models agreeing. With this storm, however, models have typically been in agreement all along. Totals have varied a bit, we did see the system shift northward some, but models have been in agreement.
This system coming is should have huge snowflakes, and with huge snowflakes, that means they should pile up quickly as up to an inch of liquid gets drained out of the atmosphere. On a standard 10:1 model, in normal circumstances, that translates to 10" of snow. With the way that temperatures are trending with this system, I'm believing that rations in the 12:1 to 16:1 range are possible, meaning a foot to sixteen inches of snow could fall.
The "Kuchera" snowfall algorithm converts forecast precipitation (liquid equivalent) into snowfall using temperature profiles through the atmosphere, instead of assuming a fixed snow ratio. While both instances are good and we rely on them to forecast, the Kuchera model typically gives more realistic snowfall totals, especially when the snow is expected to be light/fluffy, which is what we are anticipating with this system. The moisture in the atmosphere and the temperature profile in the bottom mile or so of this storm (what is referred to as the 850mb layer), I'm relying heavily on the Kuchera for this system.
The two biggest questions here are around timing and when the system is going to hit our coverage area, and of course, totals. Lets start with the timing of the storm. Before we get into all of that, though, I want to give some guidance/information on the models and images you may see other folks share.
I've scoured the 18z run of the GFS model, the 00z run of the NAM (amongst previous runs of that model), and the latest 18Z run of the Euro model. They all remain consistent on the timing of the storm. It's going to enter Western Indiana, Northern Kentucky and Southwestern Ohio between 2:30 and 4. Models are pretty consistent that by 4PM, we should all have snow falling - with potentially 0.1 of accumulation. Once snow starts, where we may experience a brief timeframe where it's not snowing, it's going to be consistently snowing through Sunday evening.
Now.. totals. Our entire area is in for some nasty weather, but if you're like me and like snow, I'm welcoming it with open arms. There is a chance for isolated higher totals a little south of our coverage area, and you'll see that indicated on the images attached, but without any further ado...
I think our entire coverage area is going to see between 10-15" of snow throughout the next 2 days. I've attached model images to this post. The NAM is from the 00Z run, the GFS is from the 18Z run, and the Euro is from the 18Z run. You can see they are all agreeing.. mostly. The GFS showing 17" I think is on the high end, but anything is possible. I'm playing this a bit conservative as things can change.
If I have any updates, I will post them tomorrow and I'll have the weekly forecast on Sunday!
[Bobby]
