28/01/2022
What's happening in Ukraine? Will Putin really attack? Is he that crazy? Or is this just hysteria on the part of the US, some kind of drama hyped up by the Western world? What's the game here?
Let's talk about this.
If you listened to the Western media these past few days -- CNN, BBC, Deutsche Welle, Fox News, NBC, et cetera -- you will have learned that Russia has been massing its troops, equipment, and weapons near its border with Ukraine, purportedly to invade that country. The Western media and the US would tell us that Russia was ready to pounce on Ukraine and annex the whole country as it did in 2014 when it invaded a big part of it, Crimea, which belonged to Ukraine. Some would say it was no invasion, the Russians -- soldiers and civilians alike -- have always been there all along; they live there.
Let's try to understand this tense situation between Ukraine and Russia, and the Western hysteria.
Ukraine was part of the erstwhile Soviet Union, that vast communist empire that engaged the United States in a long Cold War -- spies and counterspies, the James Bond stuff -- that began right after World War II and ended in 1991 when the USSR collapsed. The Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, USSR, was a socialist state that spanned Eurasia -- Europe and Asia -- and was the largest country in the world during its existence from 1922 to 1991. It was also a superpower, the USSR was the arch-enemy of NATO and the US.
But it collapsed in 1991. In the aftermath of its collapse are 15 independent states that we know today: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan.
Now Russia, being the biggest of them, still look longingly at the empire lost. Russian President Vladimir Putin was lauded by his compatriots for reclaiming Crimea. A few of the independent states still look to Russia for guidance, but many of them have turned their back on Russia and have since embraced the West. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have even joined the enemy, the USSR's arch-enemy NATO, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. They have joined NATO as member countries, while Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan are now the so-called NATO partner countries.
Now, look at Ukraine. It's so close to Russia. Half of its population are in fact Russian by blood or speakers of the Russian language. Nearly half of Ukraine is Ruskiye. Can you blame Putin if he still considers Ukraine as Russian? And considering the NATO threat, wouldn't you want Ukraine back, or at least be friendly to you if you were Putin?
So he puts boots on the ground, and tanks too, all the firepower that would be necessary to protect his border. Maybe sneak in too if nobody's looking. But Ukraine cries foul, and the world hears him, especially NATO and the United States, so they send in guns and tanks and every military equipment that Ukraine can use to fight Russia if war erupts.
But will a shooting war, a full-scale war, actually erupt? Probably not. With all the hype and the drama and all the noises -- President Putin, President Biden, and all the other presidents involved in this are still world leaders worthy of their positions, and as world leaders, they know what's good for them, for their people, and for the world.
As it is, it's only the Western media that's hyping this up. If you monitor Russia, the military maneuvers at their border with Ukraine are nothing much more than military exercises, much like the military exercises that the United States routinely conducts with other countries like South Korea and the Philippines. It is necessary muscle flexing.
On the part of Ukraine, they actually want to hush this thing up and tone down its rhetoric. They don't want too much noise about this and make the other fellow angry. Russia is bigger and stronger than Ukraine. But keep the guns coming please, thank you.
For Russia, nothing can be gained in a shooting war. It's good to dream of reviving the glory of a lost empire, it's good politics for the home crowd. But while Ukraine did belong in Russia's bosom, times have changed. Empires do expand and contract, and whether it expands or contracts has much to do with the personalities, ambition, and forcefulness of contemporary leaders. History has always been driven by personalities. You can only impose your will if the other guy is weaker than you are. Russia is not the USSR of old. It is much smaller now, the US can easily crush it. Not because it's right, but because of its might. [CBM]
