Old Man Ponderings

19/07/2024

Under the pondering heading “Good God I’m old”.

Going to see Twisters today. Saw the original Twister with my mother in law and wife at the theatre that was right by Lambeau Field in Green Bay in 1996. Watching her react back then, since she never went to the movies, was as much fun as the movie itself.

Such is life.

15/07/2024

Hum? Near record highs for every administration, despite the doom and gloom moronic predictions. Here’s a chart for you, and all the “buy gold” nuts that resurface every few years.

08/07/2024

A pondering.

When I hear old people my age moan and groan about how things used to be, and complain about kids constantly involved with “demon” elements like phones, computers, video games, AI, quantum physics, and other more recent advancements, I can only laugh at their stupidity.

Our generation just accepted crap like alcoholism, mental illness, mandatory child chores, sex/racial discrimination, physical discipline and bullying, and moronically think we were raised better.

And we wonder why we have a system that only offers the world a choice between Trump and Biden to lead the most powerful country on the planet.

Such is life.

06/07/2024

Boy, I’m pretty pi**ed this morning.

Yesterday was July 5th and they were still shooting off fireworks.

They almost caught my Christmas decorations on fire!

30/06/2024

Age is not an obstacle, but a reckoning.

Such is life.

29/06/2024

Had a friend and family member ask me about inflation truth this morning.

As I said before, Presidents are less impactful than many realize and here are the actual YOY CPI inflation averages for each Presidential term since Eisenhower.

Republican terms averaged 4.1% while Democratic terms averaged 3.9%, a distinction without a difference.

Also, things were much worse once, as those of us who lived through the Ford/Carter years remember well. Lastly, the Biden YOY inflation rate has been 5.7%, while Trump averaged 1.9%.

I support neither candidate for different reasons, but here is one set of facts, and opinions never change facts though facts should change opinions.

28/06/2024

Well, the good thing is this. Due to the structure of our government, and checks and balances, the President of the United States is much less important than people really think.

Studies of party control of the Presidency, House, Senate and Supreme Court show little direct correlation to the President and measurable large scale indicators.

From increasing deficits to inflation to social change to economic health, life will go on. Only one thing is certain.

Our drama addicted society will gravitate to the fight, and those more affected by delusional emotion than intellectual logic will often support unqualified candidates. Such is life.

27/06/2024

A pondering for tonight’s Presidential debate.

“It’s easier to fool people than convince them they have been fooled.”

18/06/2024

Just watched CBS create terror over this summer’s heatwave. In Syracuse their exact words were, “It’s going to be 97 today, which is unheard of in Syracuse NY”.

So I checked Syracuse historical temperatures.

It’s been over 90 “every year” for over 100 years, and over 100 over 10 times, including as recently as 2012 and back to 1914.

Pure sensationalism to feed America’s addiction to drama for the simple minded who think opinions are facts, and have no method to understand the difference between truthful common/special cause variation.

Such is life!

12/06/2024

Just wondering if anyone sees the irony in Biden speaking on gun control yesterday after his son was found guilty on 3 gun related counts. It’s almost as humorous as him now flying to Europe and meeting with the Pope on Artificial Intelligence, of all things.

10/06/2024

09/06/2024

I know it’s probably just an old man pondering but after watching a D Day documentary, and Eisenhower standing firm against bad advice from British generals while visiting our paratroopers just before their crucial mission, I yearn for political candidates that are trusted, principled true leaders.

28/05/2024

I saw a friend speculate that a recent increase in tornadoes are a sign of something. There is no increase and historical data is incredibly consistent, so relax.

Hysterical last data point reactions, and the human flaw of being addicted to drama, is the only culprit!

As of May 23, 2024, there have been 709 confirmed twisters this year, although many of the ratings are considered preliminary until published in the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) database.

17/05/2024

Had the Oaks and 5 straight on the first Saturday in May, but alas 2nd in the big race, though still a nice win ATB. All I'm saying for the 2nd Leg is Dan and Freedom exotics.

If you think this is code and don't understand it, don't bet.

Good Luck.

05/05/2024

I Was asked this Derby week how to handicap by an old high school friend. (Yep, a few us are still alive.) While it would take weeks to properly teach handicapping, I’ll make some simple comments.

First, I won the Oaks, which was followed by a 2nd place nose loss by Sierra Leone in the Derby. That’s Okay. Why?

You see, Sierra Leone was the best horse in the race but didn’t win because the race paths were vastly different. While the long shot winner saved ground near the rails on both turns, Sierra ran wider in both turns, even going 5 wide coming home.

In other words, his race was near 6 lengths longer (physical impact related to the circumference of the turns half circles) for Sierra than Dan, plus a stretch battle and bumping (which is part of racing by the way) slowed him and the Japanese horse considerably.

Variation is always a funny thing and very difficult to predict. If you ever doubled down on 11 in blackjack, and on the subsequently dealt card got an Ace through 5, you might understand how you can do the right thing and lose. It’s no different in horse racing.

I once instructed executives and students related to variation, and how data science allows you to deploy statistical methods to determine true trends and probabilities. A case study could be made related to the Derby, and those that bet on the big favorite Fierceness.

The running variation related to Fierceness was extreme. His last race speed rating was great and he won by 13 1/2 lengths, but the Equibase SR was 20 points higher than the prior race, and last year as a 2 year old he had a massive 37 point swing from race to race! His variable performance indicated no predictive trend based on my analysis but the bettors, and the world at large, “always” use recent data points to predict the future, or a trend.

Just “critically” listen to the last data point false trends reported in the news any night of the week if you don’t believe me.

Speed ratings are just one algorithm element that can be used to handicap horse racing. However, do you know which two horses, in the 20 horse Derby field, had the best such average rating for “all” their races in 2024? Yep. Mystic Dan (18 to 1 really?) first, Sierra Leone second, and for all I know Forever Young could have been there also but such comparative ratings are not available in Japan.

Such is life, as an old man ponders an other example related to the importance of understanding variation.

03/05/2024

You know, at age 71 and studying it for over 60 years, I’ve forgotten more about gambling and horse racing than most people will ever know.

So, it’s Hilarious seeing people bet horses who come off Lasix. Pipeline in the Alysheba …. 2nd favorite finishing dead last.

Yep, you need to handicap the drugs, the cheaters and the horses.

02/05/2024

"Sierra Leone", and that's all I'm going to say. Good Luck.

23/04/2024

I said a couple weeks again that EV demand was sliding, and the new technology adoption rate is going down, which is unlike new consumer oriented technology products in history.

EVs can not compete was gas powered vehicles in price or dependability. Now this.

Tesla reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.

22/04/2024

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/xU94y1nPF8hT2xvP/?mibextid=QwDbR1

15/04/2024

The worst show on TV finally canceled? Yep.

Read what Jerry O'Connell and Amanda Kloots have to say about the show's cancellation.

05/04/2024

A pondering at age 71.

People who troll others in meetings, at work, or even on social media, do so because they have few original thoughts of their own and rarely contribute knowledge, much less wisdom, to the subject.

Suffering fools, and a lack of patience at an age where you seen and heard it all, is simply life I suppose.

28/03/2024

So sad how politicians and media idiots focus on symptoms of problems instead of root causes, when defects that were always there become apparent.

Symptom, barge loses power.

Root causes, quality control systems (no tugs), quality engineering (single catastrophic exposed failure points without barriers), and standard quality operating procedures (speed and mass allowable procedures within defined distance from supports.

Why? Deflects blame from those ignorant politicians (in both business and politics) actually responsible.

Such is life.

27/03/2024

Loss of life is always tragic but the economic impact of the Baltimore harbor shutdown are simply political, and another foolish example of how you play to Americans “addicted” to drama.

26/03/2024

A pondering.

I am often amazed as I watch fools deploy the strategy of ignorance by always looking for the deep meaning of things, thus intentionally avoiding obvious truths that would upset their current plans, beliefs and actions.

Such is life.

20/03/2024

So for all my friends who are so busy reflecting on false trends, planning for the apocalypse and buying gold and silver, you should take some classes on statistical variation.

The US market is an incredibly consistent growing and improving market through multiple presidents, foreign conflicts, Covid, you name it. Small and occasional variances mean nothing.