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𝐒𝐮𝐜𝐜𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐭𝐡𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐠𝐡 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐠𝐢𝐞𝐬.

30/01/2025

With the release of its latest AI model, DeepSeek has laid waste to several years of American policy meant to hold back Chinese innovation—and, in the process, blown a hole in the valuations of several tech firms.⁠
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In demonstrating its ability to innovate around American export restrictions, DeepSeek has raised doubts as to whether access to piles of cutting-edge semiconductors and related equipment is as important as previously thought when it comes to training AI models.⁠
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The man at the centre of it all is Liang Wenfeng, DeepSeek’s 40-year-old founder. It is unclear how much he has relished the global market turmoil he has unleashed.

29/01/2025

It is common lore in Silicon Valley that no company has a bigger moat than Nvidia, the world’s dominant supplier of chips for artificial intelligence.⁠
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That was true until Monday, when the Chinese firm DeepSeek, bearing an AI model that it said cost less than $6m to train, blew a nearly $600bn hole in the value of the semiconductor giant. ⁠
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It marked the biggest one-day loss in the history of America’s stockmarket, though its share price bounced back by more than 8% on Tuesday.⁠
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Has the American chipmaker finally met its match?

27/01/2025

Donald Trump’s raft of day-one executive orders did not institute any new tariffs. But the president did take the time to again threaten China, Canada and Mexico with them. ⁠
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He also floated a “global supplemental tariff”, which would apply to any good imported from abroad, no matter its country of origin. ⁠
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Higher tariffs, Donald Trump and his backers say, will boost American manufacturing and fund tax cuts at little cost to the everyman, with foreigners footing the bill instead.

13/01/2025

African policymakers love to champion their continent’s entrepreneurs. According to one recent poll, 71% of young Africans plan to start their own business.⁠
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But to close the economic gap with the rest of the world, Africa does not need more small businesses. It needs more large ones. ⁠
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But in sub-Saharan Africa the two most commonly cited obstacles preventing businesses from prospering are the basics every growing firm needs.

10/01/2025

Indonesia has the world’s largest reserves of nickel, a crucial ingredient in certain electric-vehicle (EV) batteries. ⁠
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Since 2020, when an export ban came into full force, the country has come to dominate the nickel market. Its share of the world’s refined-nickel production has doubled, to nearly half the total.⁠
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But its new president, Prabowo Subianto, wants to go even further. His government may soon curtail supplies, to prop up prices, as if it were a one-country OPEC for nickel.

30/12/2024

Oenophiles, petrolheads, art aficionados and all those who like the finer things in life have not had the best year.⁠
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The price of luxury assets tanked in 2024. An investor who put their money into art at the beginning of the year lost on average 16% by the end of November. Those who invested in fine wine lost about 11% over the same period. ⁠
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There will always be luxury fanatics who buy cars, clothes and collectibles for the love of it. But those who care about the price of their high-end assets won't be popping the vintage champagne anytime soon.

30/12/2024

The number of people opening their first bank account in Latin America and the Caribbean has been growing faster than the global rate in recent years.⁠
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By 2021, 6% more Latin Americans had an account compared with 2014—double the global increase of 3% over that period.⁠
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In the coming year, financial institutions will aim to keep up the momentum, and will focus on women, rural populations and poorer people, who remain unbanked at disproportionately high rates.

18/12/2024

America’s government is on its way to bankruptcy, argues Jeffrey Gundlach.⁠
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“Under the next few presidential administrations, the national debt will mushroom beyond the government’s ability to service it,” the investor writes in a guest essay.⁠
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“When external pressure at last forces America’s leadership into hard choices, I believe the first move will be dollar debasement.”

16/12/2024

China overtook Japan in 2010 to become the world’s second-largest economy. It went on to become the world’s biggest manufacturer, a dominant buyer of commodities and the holder of $3trn of foreign-exchange reserves.⁠
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Will the world see such a rise again? India hopes so. ⁠
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In 2025 it could overtake Japan to become the second-biggest economy in Asia and the fourth largest in the world (behind America, China and Germany).

02/12/2024

As the end of the year draws closer, shopping season is in full swing. This year, though, many consumers will shop not in stores or on e-commerce sites, but via social-media apps.⁠
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Leading this trend is TikTok, a Chinese-owned platform which hopes to bring to the West a business model that blurs the line between shopping and entertainment.

20/11/2024

In the decades ahead artificial intelligence will address humanity’s greatest challenges and opportunities, perhaps even resetting a baseline of human wealth and well-being,” writes Eric Schmidt in a guest essay.⁠
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“No matter how small your state, this technology promises to improve economies, ways of governance and social fabrics,” argues Google’s former chief executive.⁠
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But with America and China leading the AI revolution, how can the rest of the world take part?

18/11/2024

Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are keen to whip the American government into shape.⁠
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Their newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) wants to hire “super-high-IQ small-government revolutionaries” to get to work on cost-cutting. It is easy to ridicule the enterprise.⁠
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Mr Musk has talked of ripping $2trn out of the federal budget. A cut of that magnitude, done swiftly, would leave public offices incapable of performing many basic functions and plunge the economy into a recession.

18/11/2024

The Americans love us, the Chinese love us, we don’t have to choose sides”, Thailand’s commerce minister, Pichai Naripthaphan, recently boasted. ⁠
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Like other optimists in South-East Asia, he believes the America-China trade war, likely to escalate under Donald Trump, will only heat up the region’s love-in with the two superpowers. ⁠
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However, as much as South-East Asia craves non-alignment, in practice it could be forced into choices that anger either America or China.

18/11/2024

Some investors and policymakers argue that capital markets unfairly impose higher costs on Africa.⁠
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Are they right to think so? Those investing in the continent undoubtedly face a range of risks, including erratic policymaking as well as the possibility of sovereign default and currency devaluation. ⁠
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But at the heart of the debate is bad or inadequate information, which most investors, reasonably, view as a form of risk. ⁠
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Even so, if there is a mismatch between the perceived risk and the reality, bridging the gap could yield large economic rewards for African economies.

05/11/2024

When the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) launched mBridge in 2021, a project aimed at revolutionising cross-border payments, it did so with much fanfare and, among some people, high expectations. ⁠
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The new system, which it was developing with China and others, would harness the power of digital currencies and the trustworthiness of central banks to make international financial flows faster, simpler and cheaper, it said.⁠
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Yet when the BIS withdrew from the project, it slunk away in the midst of a geopolitical stink. Vladimir Putin’s apparent desire to mimic the platform in order to avoid American financial sanctions had intensified opposition to the project from Western officials.

04/11/2024

Wall Street is humming with talk of the “Trump trade” before America’s presidential election.⁠
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It is based on the idea that a second Trump administration would be positive for American stocks, bad-but-not-terrible for Treasuries and great for the dollar. ⁠
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Some are also hoping the former president’s promises would add to the currency’s lustre, such as his threat to increase tariffs. Blockages on imports would lead to fewer dollars leaving America, pushing their price higher.

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