Fundamentals of Finance

16/03/2024

JEPQ vs JEPI
Who wins the battle for the best income ETF, JEPQ or JEPI? As a baseline, let’s briefly start with how they’re similar. Both of these are covered call ETFs. What’s a covered call ETF? In a nutshell, it buys stocks, then writes, or sells, call options on them. A call option gives the buyer the right to buy a stock at a set price. Of course, they’d only want to do that if the stock goes HIGHER than that price. So, if you’re SELLING those options, like these ETFs are, that means SOMEONE ELSE gets to benefit from the upside in the stocks if they go up a lot. So to recap, they buy stocks, then sell call options on them. That means you get A LITTLE of the upside potential, but then anything beyond that set price, which is called the strike price, you give up. And what do you get for giving up your upside potential? A big fat income check, and THAT is why people buy ETFs like JEPQ and JEPI. Right now JEPI is yielding 8.5% and JEPQ is yielding 10.78%. So does that mean JEPQ is better? No. It WILL almost always have a higher yield, but that higher yield comes with higher risk. You get SOME dividends from holding the stocks, but most of the income comes from selling the options. The more volatile the stocks are, and the more potential upside you’re giving up, the more income you’ll get from the options. That’s why JEPQ will normally have a higher yield, because it’s riskier.

13/03/2024

Is The S&P 500 Diversified? Basically every investing influencer says to just buy S&P 500 index funds.
But that’s because they don’t actually know anything about investing.
Telling someone who wants to invest to “just put it in an S&P 500 index fund” is like telling someone who wants to get in shape to “just go on a diet.”
OK… but can you be a little more specific?
Most influencers can’t.
In reality, there’s nothing wrong with owning an S&P 500 ETF or index fund. There’s also nothing wrong with eating broccoli… but if that’s ALL you eat, you’re not actually going to be that healthy.
It’s the same with investing… SO MANY articles want to question if the S&P 500 has become too concentrated. And yes, the Magnificent 7 stocks drove about 2/3 of the S&P 500’s return last year, and tech has become a bigger part of the index… it’s an interesting discussion to have but for most investors, it’s the wrong question. It’s missing the forest through the trees.
The S&P 500 isn’t too concentrated because of what’s inside it. It’s too concentrated because what’s NOT inside it.

12/03/2024

JEPQ ETF Explained // JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF
Is JEPQ, the JPMorgan Nasdaq Equity Premium Income ETF, a good buy?
I used to help financial advisors build portfolios for their clients and this is EXACTLY the kind of question I’d often get from them. Here’s my take on JEPQ:
In a nutshell, JEPQ is a covered call ETF on the NASDAQ 100. There are some slight differences, which I’ll cover later, but for simplicity sake that’s what it is.
Covered call ETFs generally have 2 components.
They usually buy stocks that track an underlying index, and then sell call options on them to generate income. When the underlying stocks are really volatile, like they are in the NASDAQ 100, the income can be really high. And that’s the main appeal of covered call ETFs.
There’s just one problem. Investing in JEPQ without considering the MANY ways it can go wrong, is like taking a loan from a mobster without considering the many ways it can go wrong. That juicy income payment comes with a hefty price.

11/03/2024

Rising Rates in 2024?! Potential Investment Impacts // ADVANCED Level
Everyone expects the Fed to cut interest rates a lot in 2024, but they could be in for a rude awakening.
Unlike most finance channels, this one is run by two experienced investment professionals with a STRONG track record on our rates and inflation calls.
We don’t give financial advice, but THIS person was able to use the insights gained from our inflation outlook 2024 video to DOUBLE his money in a short period of time.
This video will bring you more professional-level market insights like that one.
Back then, we showed how the lagged impacts of rent and owners equivalent rent were likely to drag inflation down faster than expected.
That’s still likely to play out over the next few months, but new information shows that LATER in the year, and in 2025, inflation could stay stubbornly high. That means 3 things for investors.
First, the Fed may not cut rates as much or as quickly as expected.
Second, long-term rates could go back up.
And third, stock market investors could be disappointed.

10/03/2024

Japan’s stock market hit an all-time high.. for the first time since 1989!
How could they NOT hit a new high for 35 years? Why is it going up so much now? Is there more upside in Japanese stocks? And could China be the next Japan with a decades-long flat market of their own?
These are the areas I’ll take you though in today’s video.

20/02/2024

Should we trust Biden with the keys to the economy for another 4 years? This UNBIASED, OBJECTIVE, EXPERT analysis of Biden’s past and future economic policies will help you decide for yourself.
This video isn’t pro or anti-Biden, it’s anti-political BS, and I already did one about Trump, too. So, let’s dive into Biden’s record and see if he deserves a passing grade. The areas I’ll grade him on are jobs, each of his 4 big fiscal spending packages, and his plans for a second term.

17/02/2024

Donald Trump inherited almost $500 million dollars in today’s money from his dad, and he just lost almost all of it in less than a month. It was fraud that brought it in, and now it’s fraud that’s sending it back out. Trump likes to claim that all he received from his dad was a $1 million dollar loan, which he paid back. But when his dad died, his most valuable possession was a $10.3 million dollar IOU from Donald Trump… BY DEFINITION a loan MUCH larger than a million dollars, that was NOT paid back. It wasn’t just loans though… The New York Times found 295 different streams of revenue that Trump’s dad created for Donald. It was multiple trust funds, shares in partnerships, ownership in buildings, fake revenue funneled through shell companies, and ALMOST ALL of it was a giant scheme to avoid gift tax. One of the main fraudulent schemes was lying about the value of properties to cheat the government out of hundreds of millions of tax dollars.

15/02/2024

A major war is brewing in the Middle East. Are your investments at risk?
I’m confident this video will be the most comprehensive and informed view you will find ANYWHERE, on what’s happening, what could be next, and what the investment implications could be.

29/01/2024

Trump's Economic Policies Graded By Investment Professional
Should we trust Trump with the keys to the economy for another 4 years?
This UNBIASED, OBJECTIVE, EXPERT analysis of Trump’s past and future economic policies will help you decide for yourself.
This video isn’t pro or anti-Trump, it’s anti-political BS, and there’s one coming about Biden, too. So, let’s dive into Trump’s record and see if he deserves a passing grade.
It makes sense to start with the most important driver of the economy… jobs. Let's get into it!

18/01/2024

A UNIQUE Investment Opportunity In China, Three Key Lessons, and Where I Was Wrong

15/01/2024

The Top 15 Comments from 2023: My Response 😂

13/01/2024

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11/01/2024

Covered Call ETFs: Buyer Beware

09/01/2024

Iraq banned the dollar on January 1st. Let’s briefly take a look at what the dinar gurus SAID would happen, and then I’ll teach you 3 things about currencies that would have told you this was a lie from the start.

30/12/2023

2024 Bond Market Outlook

29/12/2023

2024 Stock Market Outlook
I made over 30% in the stock market in 2023 and CRUSHED the S&P. Here are my top 5 investment ideas heading into 2024.
By the way if you’re new to my channel, here’s a 15 second intro to who I am and what you can expect. I’m Kyle, a former investment advisor, and I started this channel mainly to teach people how to invest.
This video is not investment advice, it’s a professional lesson on how to spot investment opportunities, using real life examples that I see right now.

19/12/2023

Melanie Hinds is a FALSE prophet, FOR profit.
In this video I’m going to expose the inner-workings of her elaborate money-making scheme that prays on people of faith. She ropes you into NUMEROUS scams by spreading false hopes, baseless rumors, and crazy conspiracies, often in the name of God. She CONSTANTLY claims to be some sort of financial genius but basically EVERYTHING she’s EVER SAID has been wrong.

15/12/2023

THE IRAQI DINAR REVALUATION...thousands of people watch Frank26 thinking they will be Iraqi Dinar millionaires one day. He tells them it will revalue, but that is a lie. In this video, I show you six scam tactics Frank26 uses to scam his viewers. He starts with the Iraqi Dinar revaluation lie, then sells products based on that lie. My background, I used to advise portfolio managers at Merrill Lynch and Morgan Stanley on investment decisions. Please like this video and let me know if any questions!

14/12/2023

The stock market took off like a ROCKET today and hit its ALL-TIME HIGH when the Fed announced that it was doing NOTHING. I know that sounds crazy, so today I’m going to explain, in simple terms, why that happened and what to expect going forward.
By the way, I figured timeliness was more important than beauty on this one, so forgive me if it’s not as cinematic as some of my other videos. Let’s cut to the chase.
In 2022, inflation and interest rates hit their highest levels in decades. I KNOW you felt the impacts in your personal life.
Well, it wasn’t fun for US, and it wasn’t fun for the stock market either.
You see, the stock market HATES high interest rates for 2 reasons:
1., it hurts companies’ profits because it makes it more expensive for them to borrow money and grow their business, and 2. it makes the GUARANTEED return on safe investments like a money market funds BETTER compared to the UNCERTAIN returns of the stock market.
Put simply, if you expect the stock market to earn a long-term return around 10%, that’s A LOT more attractive when the alternative is only paying you 1% than it is when the alternative is paying you 5%.
So, what’s getting the stock market all giddy, is NOT necessarily that the Fed decided to keep interest rates where they are, it’s that they said they expect to LOWER interest rates 3 times in 2024.
Just like you and I, the stock market is REALLY tired of this high inflation and these high interest rates, so it gets excited when it thinks they’re going down. But at what point does it become OVERexcited?
That’s what we’re going to get to at the end.
But before we get there, we have to understand WHY the Fed might lower interest rates next year.
You see, the Fed RAISES rates to fight inflation and LOWERS rates to stimulate the economy. But what few people understand is that it’s actually the “REAL” rate that determines how restrictive or stimulative interest rates are.
The REAL rate is the interest rate minus inflation, and in NORMAL times they like it to be at roughly 0.5%.
So, that means, if inflation is at 2%, the “NEUTRAL” REAL interest rate would be 2.5%.
When the REAL rate is HIGHER than 0.5%... aka there’s a BIGGER gap between interest rates and inflation, that slows the economy down and lowers inflation.
So, since they expect inflation to fall to 2.4% next year, keeping rates at 5.5% would imply a 3.1% REAL interest rate, which would be VERY restrictive and almost CERTAINLY push us into a recession.
So, it’s a balancing act.
If inflation falls to 2.4%, like they expect, they’ll want to LOWER rates so they don’t push us into a recession, but not lower them TOO much, since they’ll STILL want them to be A LITTLE BIT restrictive to get inflation back down to their 2% target yet.
By the way, this is EXACTLY what I predicted in my Inflation Outlook 2024 video a month ago.

05/12/2023

Investment Expert VS "Pimpy" (The Other Side of Things YouTube Channel). Pimpy is more level headed than other Dinar gurus, but he still misunderstands some basics about investing. I explain here in a video response to his video about me.

03/12/2023

Investment Expert VS Dinar Guru: Comparing Track Records

22/11/2023

How To Reduce Taxes On Your Investments
“How can I reduce or avoid taxes on my financial gains?” It’s a great question because making money is hard, but many people end up just GIVING it away to the government in the form of taxes. This video will teach you how to reduce taxes on your investments.
This is NOT an exaggeration… a few clicks of the mouse could save you thousands or even HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS of dollars in taxes over your lifetime. Let’s dive in.

20/11/2023

Does BlackRock Secretly Run The World? Investment Expert Explains

18/11/2023

Is It Time To Invest in Intermediate and Long-Term Bonds Again?

14/11/2023

16/10/2023

o I hope I’m wrong about that because the short-term economic pain would be somewhat of a reset that would be good for the economy in the long run, but my expectation is that they’ll play the “extend and pretend” game.
o What I mean by that is that since they control the banks that provide 90% of the funding to the property market, they can basically tell the banks to just let indebted local governments or property developers pay back their debt later. Actually, there’s a lot of this going on already so it’s not really a bold prediction. The default issues would be a lot worse if they were actually reported.
o In this scenario, there’s never a big blowup but these issues linger and weigh down the economy for YEARS. Confidence remains challenged, they keep battling deflation periodically, and by 2030 FEW people will still be predicting that China’s GDP will EVER catch up to the U.S. I hope I’m wrong, and part of me goes back to the fact that in investing, it’s always darkest before the dawn… but until I can see the light a little clearer I probably won’t be adding to my Chinese investments.

15/10/2023

So what’s next for the Chinese stock market and how could this crisis impact the rest of the global economy?
Well, there are a lot of moving parts and it’s never easy to predict the actions of an authoritarian government, but here are some of the things I’m watching for.
• Anecdotally, when things SEEM the worst, it’s often a good time to invest. I personally think this will get WORSE before it gets BETTER, so I’m holding my very small investment in China but not adding to it yet. Odds are there will be some major rallies over the next few years, but predicting the timing or magnitude is essentially impossible right now. Here are some of the things I’m watching out for.

14/10/2023

There’s a psychological phenomenon called the “wealth effect” that basically says that when people “feel” wealthier they’re more likely to go out and spend money.
Well, people are REALLY worried about the outlook for the economy right now so they’re saving more and pulling back on spending. When they pull back on spending, that weakens the economy even further and starts to impact restaurants, movie theaters, airlines, and ALL KINDS of industries that have NOTHING to do with real estate.
And by the way, if you think that things are actually great over there and it’s just my American point of view, China’s consumer confidence is SO BAD that they actually STOPPED publishing the figures in April