Weather 225 Tropical Updates

06/10/2024

TROPICS: Here's the latest look at the activity around the tropics! Interactive map: https://weather225.com/tropical-map/

26/09/2024

Our latest update on
https://weather225.com/all/hurricane-helene-now-forecasted-to-reach-major-category-4-strength/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR3AxdEzmzwhgT_eTiXsUl3KgKC1usen43Kyf64dTbbaueKxWjjpsZGRtig_aem_JB0dwPAxGPYAnYBhM1rETQ

By: Joshua Wisel Weather 225 Media- Latest forecast guidance has increased the forecasted strength of Hurricane Helene before it makes landfall to now category 4 status. As of this a…

24/09/2024

Future is now expected to reach major hurricane status before landfall along parts of the FL coast by Thursday. Here’s our latest update: weather225.com/all/major-hurr…

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (Weather 225 Media)- Major Hurricane Forecasted to impact portions of Florida by Thursday Afternoon The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center has …

23/09/2024

⚠️ **Major Hurricane Forecasted to impact portions of Florida by Thursday Afternoon!**
The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center has upgraded the forecasted strength of now Tropical Cyclone Nine/future Hurricane Helene to reach major CAT 3 hurricane status before landfall. Residents in the Florida Panhandle, and western Florida including coastal and inland areas should prepare for significant impacts by late this week. Helene could bring significant storm surge to coastal areas, flash flooding, significant winds, and other hurricane impacts to these areas. A state of emergency has been issued for 41 of Floridas 67 counties ahead of this system, residents are encouraged to follow emergency management’s orders, and stay tuned for updates in the coming days. It’s too early to say exactly where this will make landfall, and who will see the worst impacts, HOWEVER, its a good idea to go ahead and prepare now ahead of this storm, and stay tuned for forecast updates in the coming days. Per the NHC we could see hurricane watches/warnings issued as soon as this evening, or tomorrow morning.
Emergency declaration State of Florida: https://www.flgov.com/2024/09/23/memorandum-executive-order-number-24-208-emergency-management-potential-tropical-cyclone-nine/

Latest blog: https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1004852731652760&id=100063841261805

Our Tropical Map: https://weather225.com/tropical-map/

09/09/2024

Tropical Storm has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to reach hurricane status by Tuesday evening. Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?start
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TCPAT1&e=202409091500&bbb=CCA
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Advisory Number 4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 09 2024

Corrected direction relative to Grand Isle in Watch and Warning
Summary section.
..DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE.....EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY WITH STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES
ISSUED FOR THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 94.9W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from east of High Island,
Texas, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama Border, including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Pontchartrain.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Cameron eastward to Grand
Isle in Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued east of High Island, Texas,
to Cameron, Louisiana, and from Grand Isle, Louisiana, to the Mouth
of the Pearl River including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Vermilion Bay
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Cameron eastward to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* East of High Island Texas to Cameron Louisiana
* East of Grand Isle to Mouth of the Pearl River
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 94.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h) and a slow
north-northwestward motion is expected for the remainder of the day,
followed by a faster motion to the northeast beginning on Tuesday.
On the forecast track, Francine is expected to be just offshore of
the northern Gulf Coast of Mexico through Tuesday, and approach the
Louisiana and Upper Texas coastline on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual intensification is expected over the next day with
more significant intensification on Tuesday Night and Wednesday.
Francine is expected to become a hurricane before it reaches the
northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by
Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm conditions possible by
Wednesday morning.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area along
the northern coast of Mexico and extreme southern Texas beginning
Tuesday, and for the extreme northern Texas and portions of the
Louisiana coast on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Francine is expected to bring storm
total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches,
from the coast of far northeast Mexico northward along portions of
the southern Texas coast, the far upper Texas coast and across
southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi into Thursday morning.
This rainfall could lead to the risk of considerable flash and urban
flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Tropical Storm Francine, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However, there
may be some overtopping of local levees. For information specific
to your area, please see products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

SURF: Swells generated by this system are affecting portions of the
Gulf coast of Mexico and are expected to spread northwestward across
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastline through midweek. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
.
Weather225.com

16/08/2024

LIVE: Tune in to our ALL Coverage Area Weather Live Stream! Watch here, and subscribe to our YouTube channels to be notified of live streams and other content and more: https://www.youtube.com/live/rxInbHDDGFc?si=Ga9X85ih9j5p_aQD

LIVE WEATHER Across ALL of our coverage areas! Texas, Arkansas, New York, Tropics! *Please do NOT re-stream our broadcasts without permission* All forecasts ...

04/08/2024

⚠️Debby to strengthen to CAT 1 intensities before landfall by Monday, potentially historic rainfall forecasted for coastal GA, and SC between Monday and Friday.
Now Tropical Storm is making its way further North Toward the western and panhandle coastal areas of Florida and is expected to strengthen to a CAT 1 storm by Monday before landfall early Monday afternoon. Additionally, forecasted potentially historic rainfall amounts will bring significant to potentially catastrophic flooding to parts of Georgia and South Carolina between Monday and Friday. Coastal areas, rivers, streams, flood prone areas are at extreme risk for flooding with heavy rainfall activity between Brunswick GA to Charleston SC, where some areas could see between 22-30" of rainfall potentially. Prepare accordingly if you're in this storms path. Remember a storm does not have to be a significant CAT 3+ strengthen storm to leave historical impacts. PLEASE stay tuned to local officials and weather service for updates in the coming days! Weather225.com
Latest NHC Discussion: Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Sun Aug 04 2024

Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations indicate that Debby
continues to intensify over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Satellite
imagery shows that the cloud pattern is becoming better developed
with increasing deep convection near the center of circulation, and
WSR-88D radar data indicate that an eyewall is beginning to form.
The current intensity estimate is estimated to be 55 kt based on a
significant drop in central pressure reported the aircraft.

The cyclone has been turning gradually to the right and the initial
motion is north-northwestward or 330/11 kt. Over the next day or
so, Debby should move through a weakness in the mid-level
subtropical ridge over the southeastern United States and reach the
northeast Gulf of Mexico coast in the Florida Big Bend region on
Monday. After the system makes landfall, the steering currents are
likely to weaken as a trough over the northeastern U.S. moves
eastward from the area, which should result in a decrease in forward
speed. There is significant uncertainty in the track of Debby in
the 2-5 day time frame. Much of the track guidance keeps the center
over the southeastern U.S. for the next several days as a ridge
builds in over the Carolinas. The official track forecast is
similar to the previous one and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus prediction. This keeps the slow-moving center near the
Georgia and South Carolina coast in the 3 to 5 day time-frame.

Debby will be moving over very warm waters and in a low-vertical
shear environment prior to landfall. Therefore significant
strengthening is likely through tonight, especially if the cyclone
forms a well-defined inner core The official forecast is near the
high side of the objective guidance and calls for the system to
become a hurricane within 12 hours. The cyclone will weaken after
it moves inland, but since the system will not be far from the
coastline for the next few days, it is not predicted to fall below
tropical storm strength through 72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will likely result in considerable flooding
impacts from the Florida Big Bend region through southeast GA and
the Coastal Plain of the Carolinas through Friday. Potentially
historic heavy rainfall across southeast Georgia and South Carolina
through Friday morning may result in areas of catastrophic
flooding. Significant river flooding is also expected.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Gulf Coast of Florida, with 6 to 10 feet of inundation above
ground level expected somewhere between Ochlockonee River and
Suwannee River on Monday. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected Monday along portions of the
Florida Big Bend region where a Hurricane Warning is in effect, with
tropical storm conditions beginning this evening. Tropical storm
conditions are expected through Monday farther south within the
Tropical Storm Warning along Florida's west coast, including the
Tampa Bay area.

4. Impacts from storm surge and strong winds are possible along the
southeast coast from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of
the week, and storm surge watches and tropical storm watches have
been issued for portions of these areas. Additional watches and
warnings will likely be required later today.

28/07/2024

Latest from the NHC shows a now moderate 40% chance for tropical development in the central tropical Atlantic that could make its way west toward the Caribbean and western Atlantic coast. This system could develop a tropical depression within the next 48 hours as it moves into the vicinity of the Leeward Islands and Greater Antilles.
Our Tropical Page: https://weather225.com/tropical-map/
Latest discussion from NHC: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TWDEP&e=202407281605

27/07/2024

Tropics have been quiet the past couple weeks, however, we now have 30% chance for tropical development within the next 7 days in the central Atlantic. We also have low to moderate chances for development in the eastern pacific.
Stay up to date here, and on our website: https://weather225.com/tropical-map/
Latest discussion update from National Hurricane Center:
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jul 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1350 UTC.
..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 87W moving across Central America from
near the Gulf of Fonseca southward to 04N, moving very quickly
west at 20-25 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

A tropical wave is near 114.5W from 06N to 20N with axis near
113W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is described
below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section.

A tropical wave is near 135W from 04N to 20N, moving west at
around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described below in the
ITCZ/monsoon trough section.
..INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 15N133W. The ITCZ
extends from 15N133W to 13N133W, then resumes from 12N136W to
beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 04N to 16N between 77W and 102W, from 11N to 13N
between 114W and 116W, and from 11N to 14N between 135W and 140W.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh N winds are in the immediate Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of
the offshore waters of Mexico, including in the Gulf of
California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in mainly S to SW swell
across the open waters, and 2-4 ft range in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally strong at times,
through the next several days. Winds will be mainly moderate or
weaker elsewhere, fresh at times offshore Baja California Norte.
Little change in seas is expected into next week. Looking ahead,
an area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of
next week a few hundred nautical miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form during the middle or latter part of next week. This
system is forecast to move west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt,
roughly parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
..OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Heavy showers and thunderstorms are across much of the offshore
waters from Colombia and Panama west-northwestward and south of
the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are offshore
Nicaragua. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are in
the 4-7 ft range across the offshore waters, mainly in S to SW
swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf
of Papagayo through the middle of next week, locally strong Sun
night through Mon. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and
moderate seas will persist through the end of the forecast period.
..REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Low pressure, the remnants of Bud, are located near 19N123W at
1011 mb. Nearby winds are 20 kt or less while some remnant seas
of around 8 ft are subsiding. Moderate to fresh trades are north
of the ITCZ to 20N and west of a tropical wave near 135W, with
fresh to locally strong E to SE winds south of the ITCZ and west
of 130W. Seas are 6-9 ft near this area from the Equator to 20N
and west of 118W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with
seas in the 5-7 ft range.

For the forecast, the remnant low of Bud will dissipate to a
trough later today while associated remnant seas subside. Marine
conditions over the west-central and SW waters near a tropical
wave at 135W will improve by Sun as the wave departs into the
Central Pacific basin. Fairly tranquil marine conditions should
prevail across most of the open waters into early next week, with
winds freshening south of the monsoon trough building seas
slightly to 8 ft in the central waters Mon through early Tue.
Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form by the middle
of next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula. Some slow development of this system
is possible during the middle and latter parts of next week while
it moves westward to west-northwestward across the western
portion of the basin.

Lewitsky
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=TWDEP&e=202407271605

29/08/2023

Here is the latest track and models on now Hurricane as it continues to move NE towards western portions and panhandle of Florida. Idalia is expected to reach major status (CAT 3) before landfall WED morning. Please follow local guidelines and orders. (Times shown are EDT)

01/06/2023

TROPICS | Tropical Depression Two has formed in the northern Gulf of Mexico. This storm is expected to move away from the southern U.S. coast, and could strengthen to Tropical Storm Arlene. Weather225.com