Big Canoe Weather

14/11/2024

Thursday, Nov 14
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Great job by everyone in getting their rainfall measurements posted this morning! This was the first real rain we've had since giving out some of the rain gauges, so everyone got to measure from both tubes!

I had 1.40" as of 6:45 AM, and you'll notice one station with 1.85", and that report was at 9:15 AM. Since then I've had about 0.30", so the earlier reporting stations are in the same ballpark as that later station.

The next two images are temperature anomalies and 24 hour temperature change, as of 8:45 AM this morning. You can see the evidence of the wedge in our anomalies, but also notice that we're right about normal for temps right now. After all of the warm mornings, this feels like below normal to me.

Our temperatures this morning was running about 4-6 degrees cooler than yesterday, and the highs today should remain cool, between 49-55 degrees.

Still looking at much cooler air toward the middle to the end of next week, and I have four images from the deterministic models showing the 24 hour temperature change. The times vary depending on the timing of that particular model, but the results are consistent, it's going to get quite a bit colder than we are right now, and more in line with what we should be for this time of the year.

13/11/2024

12/11/2024

Tuesday, Nov 12
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Rainfall amounts for the Wednesday/Thursday event keep going down, and we've now around 0.50" of rain through Friday morning.

12/11/2024

I thought this was shared earlier, but apparently not.

Send a message to learn more

12/11/2024

Monday, Nov 11
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Here's our potential rainfall totals through Friday, and it's looking like we might finally get some meaningful rainfall.

05/11/2024

Tuesday, Nov 5
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Another dreary day in store as we remain firmly entrenched in the wedge. My high and low temperature difference yesterday was 2.9º and up on Sanderlin the difference was 3.7º, all due to the cool easterly flow, cloud cover, and high moisture content of the atmosphere, and today won't be much different. We may see a few breaks in the clouds late this afternoon, but it certainly won't be a sunny day.

Tropical Storm Rafael is still keeping people guessing on where it will go, as the models are in general disagreement on the track once it gets into the Gulf. The Euro and UKMet take it west, the GFS brings it to the northern Gulf coast around Alabama. There is pretty good agreement that no matter where it makes landfall, it most likely will not be a hurricane, as dry air and shear will cause it to rapidly weaken. At 120 hours on the NHC forecast, Rafael is about 80 miles south of Louisiana with max winds of 50 mph, and if it moves closer to land, the winds will decrease further. I still believe it will be a tropical depression if and when it makes landfall on the northern Gulf coast.

Parts of Georgia will see some heavy rainfall, and at the moment it looks like central to south Georgia is the bullseye for that. The Weather Prediction Center has a "Slight Risk" outline for excessive rainfall for central Georgia on Wednesday, with the possibility of 2-4" or more, but at the moment, north Georgia is left out of this event. In the end, the placement of the heavy rain will be dependent on the eventual track of Rafael, so we'll wait and see how this plays out. As it stands at the moment, north Georgia may see 1.00-1.50" of rain over the next 7 days, and any meaningful rainfall would be welcomed.

While it may seem very cool, our overall daily temperatures are running above normal, primarily due to the low temperatures being so warm. We should be looking at lows in the 40's, but instead we're seeing upper 50's, and that's going to continue for a while. I still believe that we'll see a drop to more seasonable levels around mid month, and the models are beginning to show several strong fronts during that time frame.

05/11/2024

Tuesday, November 5
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Temperatures don't get much more uniform than this.

Have you noticed that there aren't many weather stations in the "middle" of Big Canoe? Many seem to be located along the higher elevations, we a few more scattered over in the Wildcat area.

04/11/2024

We're watching PTC 18 in the Caribbean this morning, and trying to figure out which way it will go. I still don't believe that it will bring much of an impact to the Gulf coast.

While PCT 18 may get up to hurricane status, it won't stay there for long, as the conditions over the Gulf of Mexico are fairly hostile to any major development. The sub-tropical jet will be very close to the coastline, and those winds will shear the storm out before reaching landfall, and the NHC forecast shows it weakening over the Gulf.

Something has gone wrong with Facebook, and if I try to share videos or GIF's, the page locks up and becomes unresponsive. It started happening yesterday when I tried to share a video loop, so don't know what's going on. Since there is no place to complain, I'm stuck.

Details are in the post.
Not signed up, click here first:
https://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/

Post:
https://wx.northgeorgiawx.com/forums/topic/38515-ptc-18/

02/11/2024

Now that October is over, I wanted to show you the temp comparisons between my house and Atlanta-Hartsfield airport, my house to a house on Sanderlin, and Sanderlin to Atlanta-Hartsfield.

What I found interesting about this month, was that my highs ran about 6 degrees cooler than Atlanta, but my lows averaged only 0.6 degrees lower. During those cold few days, Atlanta actually had some lows colder than me, and there were even a few days that Atlanta had lows that were colder than Sanderlin.

This will be interesting to track this winter.

Images are captioned.

31/10/2024

I'm seeing people posting weather maps that show a Gulf storm around the 7th of November, but be wary of that scenario, as I'm not really seeing anything that is going to cause trouble for us, or even the Gulf coast, and climatology backs that up.

As the jet stream starts to dip further south during this time of the year, it becomes more difficult for tropical systems to make it very far north, as they usually get sheared out and moved east by the upper level winds, and we saw that happen to Milton as it closed in on Florida.

The models that do show an area of low pressure, move the system toward Mexico where it washes out. The GFS tries to bring a low to the central Gulf coast, but it's very weak and gets absorbed and vanishes into the main flow before coming ashore.

28/10/2024

Here's a look at the last four Novembers and how the temperatures have worked out. Out of those four, only one (2021) ended up below normal.

Again, pairs of images, one showing the temp anomaly, and the other showing the 500 mb anomalies. You can clearly see how the high pressures bring the heat, while the troughs bring the cold.

28/10/2024

Expect the next 7 days to bring above normal warmth to the eastern half of the country, as high pressure takes over in the east, and a trough settles over the west.

I don't think we'll see any cold weather until at least the middle part of November.

The images are in pairs and captioned, with one showing the 7 day 500 mb height anomalies and the other showing the 7 day temperature anomalies.

Pretty much our typical fall in Georgia.

26/10/2024

It is possible to see a brief shower... so don't be surprised.

25/10/2024

I am bored, come see me at the Moonshine Festival in Dawsonville.

23/10/2024

Another morning (Wednesday) with cooler temps down low and warmer on top.

23/10/2024

I hope you had a chance to read the post about the upcoming winter, but if not, I wanted to share a few images that illustrate the rather strong correlation between the state of the PDO and our winter in Georgia.

In the post, I looked at the 26 coldest winters in Georgia and then looked at the various patterns that influence our winters here.

The main pattern, or teleconnection that I focused on was the Pacific Decadal Oscillation or the PDO. I won't get into the details like I did in the post, but I wanted to show you how our winter time temperatures change based on a positive or negative PDO.

The images are captioned, but you can clearly see that a negative PDO makes for at best, and normal winter. A positive PDO flips the winter temperatures to cold. For these images, I took the coldest winters back to 1960 (from the original 26 winters) and blended them together. This small study ended with the 2003 winter, so at some point I'll go back and add in the last 20 years of winters. I do know that the winter of 2014-15 ("The 2014–15 North American winter was frigid and prolifically wintry, especially across the eastern half of North America in the months of January–March") was a +PDO.

I have the PDO data on my website, if you care to see it.
https://www.daculaweather.com/4_pdo_index.php

23/10/2024

If you'd like to learn more about severe weather, and how to identify and report it, these are great classes, and the virtual classes make it convenient for everyone!

There are 2 more opportunities to attend a Storm Spotter Class this week!
These courses are FREE and open to everyone🤓
For ALL information concerning these classes visit:
www.weather.gov/ffc/skywarnsched

20/10/2024

Another one of those mornings when it's cooler down below than it is on the top.