25/08/2023
Bagyong Goring may posibilidad na maging Super Typhoon ayon sa pinakahuling datos mula sa PAGASA DOST.
| TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 7
Severe Tropical Storm (SAOLA)
Issued at 5:00 PM, 25 August 2023
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today.
GORING INTENSIFIES INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD
Location of Center (4:00 PM): The center of Severe Tropical Storm GORING was estimated based on all available data at 260 km East of Calayan, Cagayan (19.7°N, 123.9°E)
Intensity: Maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 985 hPa
Present Movement: Southeastward Slowly
Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds: Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 160 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 1
Luzon
Wind threat: Strong winds Batanes, the eastern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Camiguin Is.), the eastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana, Gonzaga, Lal-Lo, Gattaran, Baggao, Peñablanca, Santa Teresita, Buguey, Camalaniugan, Aparri), and the eastern portion of Isabela (Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan, Dinapigue, San Mariano, San Pablo, Cabagan, Tumauini, Ilagan City) - -
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
Forecast accumulated rainfall from today to tomorrow afternoon
• 50-100 mm: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
Forecast accumulated rainfall from tomorrow afternoon to Sunday afternoon
• 100-200 mm: Eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, and the northern portion of Aurora
• 50-100 mm: Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Provinces and the rest of mainland Cagayan and Isabela
Forecast accumulated rainfall for Sunday afternoon to Monday afternoon
• 50-100 mm: Ilocos Provinces, northern portion of Aurora, and the eastern portions of Cagayan and Isabela
Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas. Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are possible especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in localities that experienced considerable amounts of rainfall for the past several days.
The Southwest Monsoon will be enhanced by GORING and bring occasional rains over the western portions of Central Luzon and Southern Luzon beginning tomorrow, and over the western portion of Visayas beginning on Sunday. For more information, refer to Weather Advisory #2 for Southwest Monsoon issued at 11:00 AM today and the 24-Hour Public Weather Forecast and Outlook at 4:00 PM today.
Severe Winds
Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are also possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No.1 is hoisted. Should the forecast track of GORING shifts further to the west, the potential for hoisting higher Wind Signals is possible.
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
The enhanced Southwest Monsoon will continue to bring gusty conditions over the following areas not under any Wind Signal, especially in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds:
• Tomorrow: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, Dinagat Islands, and most of MIMAROPA and Visayas.
• Sunday: Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Visayas, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
A Coastal Gale Warning is in effect over the northern and eastern coastal waters of Northern Luzon and the eastern coastal waters of Central Luzon due to strong winds associated with GORING which may cause sea travel to be risky for certain types or tonnage of vessels. Disruption in civilian maritime activities is expected over these areas (e.g., suspension of sea travel). For more information, refer to Gale Warning #2 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• GORING is forecast to move south southwestward or southward over the waters east of Northern Luzon until tomorrow evening, then turn generally south or southeastward for the rest of tomorrow through Sunday afternoon. Afterwards, the tropical cyclone will loop northward before turning to the northwest on Tuesday towards Luzon Strait. For the most of the forecast period, GORING is forecast to move slowly.
• Due to highly favorable environment, GORING is forecast to rapidly intensify and may reach typhoon category by tomorrow. GORING is forecast to steadily strengthen and may attain its maximum strength by Monday, potentially becoming a Super Typhoon.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
DOST-PAGASA
https://tinyurl.com/GoringPH
