06/01/2025
A lot of times in Oklahoma, you’ll hear meteorologist, or weather pages refer to “temperature profile” as a big question mark in snow forecasting. I’m gonna try to explain what that means…
This is what that means, kind of. The left side of this graph shows height in atmosphere. Picture this in three dimensions. The red line is temperature as you get to _____ height in the atmosphere.
You’ll see at the surface, 32° is plenty cold enough for snow, however, go up about a kilometer, and it’s ~40°, then colder above that.
So precip would form as snow, fall through a zone of 40° (does it melt? Is it freezing at our dendritic growth zone?) or does it melt, then refreeze as graupel/sleet. It’s so hard to dial in down here in the southern plains.
The warm nose, and where/if it’s located in the atmosphere, is the ticket. We almost always have one here, unless we get a historic low pressure system effecting all levels of the atmosphere. This specific graph I’ve shared seems to hint at a sleet storm in Oklahoma on Thursday. Much can, and will, change, but just trying to help understand more.
