24/11/2022
From 6 posts at Election Data Analyzer on Telegram:
Post 1: Every candidate listed here in the 2022 election cycle received more absolute votes than the same candidate from 2018 with one exception: Kari Lake. Doug Ducey in 2018 was more popular than Kari Lake with AZ Republicans.....apparently.
Post 2: Perhaps a long time AZ pol can explain this to me. This is a tally of votes in 2018 and 2022. For example, in 2018, for ALL these races there was a total of 13,906,729 votes cast. Looking at AZ GOV DEM in 2018, that race accounted for 7.15% of all VOTES cast. In 2022, the same race accounted for 8.53% of all VOTES cast. There was a 1.38% increase in the relative amount of votes being cast for AZ GOV DEM relative to all votes cast. There was also a -1.16% drop for AZ GOV REP in 2022. The other races you can see the fluctuation is between -0.37% to +0.30%. The AZ GOV race changed range was -1.16% to 1.38%. Interesting....
Post 3: The relative % of votes cast between 2018 and 2022 for these races compared to all votes cast hovered around 0% for all races, except...wait for it.... the AZ GOV race. There was a +0.22% change between 2018 and 2022 in the relative amount of votes cast for the AZ GOV race. Interesting....
Post 4: This is a look at 3 election cycles and the absolute number of vote differences between cycles. (Ignore the AZ TRS DEM because the REP ran unopposed in 2014). The conclusion? ONLY AZ GOV REP 2022 (Kari Lake) has LOST votes between cycles. Keep in mind, the absolute number of votes went up in all these races by 1MM+ between 2018 and 2022. Interesting?.....
Post 5: Winning the battle but losing the war in AZ. This is a simple count of all votes cast for all Arizona State Senate and House Races for all Districts. AZ is a red state. How did they end up with a Blue GOV, SoS and potentially AG?
Post 6: The point of this analysis was to put the AZ GOV race in a larger context. This is data from the official canvass reports going back to 2000. I included the data so you can fact check me. What jumps out? The decrease in registrations in AZ between 2022 and 2020 with a corresponding population increase. Also, the overall turnout % was lower in 2022 than in 2018. Does that make sense? What impact did it have on the GOV race specifically?