Intelligence Quarterly (2024)

24/04/2022

New article!

Free Weekly Newsletter April 24th, 2022 A free look at some brief thoughts about the week ahead, along with highlights from the past week’s subscription issues of Ahead of the Herd. Normally, I start off with the upcoming data releases globally for a look at the week ahead. However, this week, giv...

22/04/2022

New article!

An ominous feature of yesterday’s S&P 500 price action? Here’s a fun fact for you: yesterday, S&P futures traded above and below each of the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. The cash index came within a whisker of accomplishing the same feat, missing out as the high of the day (4512.94) w...

22/04/2022

New article!

Since February 24, the start of the war in Ukraine, relations between Russia and Japan have deteriorated. This is because the war opened old wounds, as the two countries are technically still at war (see ‘A ghost from the past’ for more). In fact, one of the consequences has been a breakdown in ...

22/04/2022

New article!

What to make of the uncertainty of the ECB? We look into a viable base-case that takes more than just short-term inflation into account. In light of upcoming CB policy decisions, we discuss stagflation risks as consumer sentiment drops off a cliff as well as just-released composite PMIs that are far...

22/04/2022

New article!

The big news of the day is Japan’s core inflation data, which shows a trend upwards (with the devil lying in the details). Inflation is also a key theme in other countries, like Sri Lanka (covered on more than one occasion due to its crisis) and China, which is currently plagued by severe supply c...

21/04/2022

New article!

Russian oil output is down 10% from its pre-war level – the oil price will rise again The Kremlin is doing its best to conceal the full impact of formal and informal energy sanctions after its invasion of Ukraine. But Moscow can’t hide from thesatellites above Siberia that measure the amount of ...

21/04/2022

New article!

Yesterday, on April 20, US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke to his Chinese counterpart, General Wei Fenghe, for the first time since the inauguration. This in of itself is quite surprising, considering that diplomacy is de facto run by the US military in the Pacific and considering the many po...

21/04/2022

New article!

Once again the running theme is the balance between growth and inflation, with all the policymakers being forced into this particular dilemma. Speaking of inflation, New Zealand released its CPI, hitting a 30-year high. With regards to growth, news of particular importance is Xi Jinping once again r...

21/04/2022

New article!

We start today with a discussion of recent ECB comments that may hint at faster-than-expected rate hikes. We look at the implications and dive into the just-released De Guindos interview. In the UK, Johnson is looking to close a trade deal with India, which could be tricky given ongoing geopolitical...

20/04/2022

New article!

The impact of the weak Yen on US 10-year yields As the following chart shows, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has been operating with yield curve control since September 2016. The current iteration is targeting the 10-year JGB yield at 0% with a 25- basis point band/range (gray shade). The blue line is the....

20/04/2022

New article!

Back on March 29, we covered the story of a new security deal between China and the Solomon Islands, which was just confirmed by President Sogavare at the time (see ‘The Pacific influence war‘ for more). The prospect caused quite a reaction from Australia and New Zealand, which immediately criti...

20/04/2022

New article!

There are several running themes today, but the most important revolves around the IMF and its recent forecast about the various economies. Overall, there are signs of slowdowns and several other pieces of news hint at that, although there are indeed exceptions like Australia. CENTRAL BANKS 1.1 Like...

20/04/2022

New article!

We’re starting today’s newsletter with an article on unrealistic theories and the difficulty in predicting economic developments in the current environment. Tied to this, we highlight the pressure on the ECB to hike rates as well as stagflation risks outlined by the new IMF forecast. We also foc...

19/04/2022

New article!

Not since Richard Nixon have we seen the Yen trend like this New highs are the order of the day, though of course I am not talking about the equity market. USD/JPY has continued to motor and has clearly reached the threshold where it is doing more harm than good, judging by the comments from Finance...

19/04/2022

New article!

Even *if* inflation isn’t getting worse, it’s likely to remain persistent at elevated levels. One reason is the fact that food inflation is here to stay due to broken supply chains in key growing nations and high fertiliser prices. In light of these developments, we list four reasons that point ...

19/04/2022

New article!

Back on April 7, we mentioned a few pieces of news regarding Japan and its immediate neighbour, South Korea. Specifically, we talked about the possibility of improved relations between these two key US allies, despite their troubled past. Something seems to be moving towards this direction, as Tokyo...

19/04/2022

New article!

The main theme of the day is the ‘rocketing inflation’, as the RBI stated. While there are no two countries with comparable inflation rates, most of them have been facing high inflation. One of the few exceptions is Japan, which has been facing the issue of low inflation and whose central bank h...

18/04/2022

New article!

How much confidence should we have in Powell’s Fed? Eleven million unfilled jobs. Still-strong consumer balance sheets. Inventory of unsold houses so low that bidding wars break out as FOMO (fear of missing out) spreads. Rising wages and plentiful jobs drive up consumer sentiment by the largest am...

18/04/2022

New article!

Taiwan already hit the headlines previously, as Speaker Nancy Pelosi was meant to visit the country on April 10 (as covered in ‘News from the Island Chains’). While that visit did not come to pass, officially due to the Speaker getting Covid, there was an unannounced visit from a bipartisan sena...

18/04/2022

New article!

There have been several important pieces of news regarding China, with a 25 bps cut in the RRR from the PBOC on Friday, official data regarding the Chinese economy and Didi announcing a meeting about its delisting from the NYSE. Outside of China, there were some updates regarding the current crisis....

17/04/2022

New article!

Two significant market moving events over this holiday weekend, and they are juxtaposed. China More Chinese cities tighten controls as Shanghai COVID cases rise Shanghai reported a record number of symptomatic COVID-19 cases on Saturday and other areas across China tightened controls as the country....

17/04/2022

New article!

A free look at some brief thoughts about the week ahead, and highlights from the past week’s subscription issues of Ahead of the Herd. THE WEEK AHEAD Jerome Powell may reinforce bets that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by a half point next month, when he makes final public remarks...

14/04/2022

New article!

Fed Governor Waller made a few comments of note yesterday Waller has made a few comments on CNBC that are relevant given recent developments: *WALLER: FORECASTING INFLATION HAS PEAKED AND WILL START TO FALL *WALLER: DOESN’T RELIEVE FED OF JOB OF REMOVING ACCOMMODATION That basically underscores th...

14/04/2022

New article!

As we covered in ‘The Pacific influence war’, the Chinese have been attempting to reshape the landscape in the Pacific, with the latest act being a security deal with the Solomon Islands. Such a move has sparked quite a few reactions, especially from neighbouring Australia. This is because Austr...

14/04/2022

New article!

Following the RBNZ tightening, both South Korea and Singapore have enacted tightening measures. As in the case of New Zealand, the primary reason is inflation, which has been biting several countries very hard. On top of this, there have been recurring themes which we previously covered, like the cu...

14/04/2022

New article!

Ahead of the ECB’s press conference, we cover key questions and topics that need to be addressed. Related, we look at how central banks influenced the traditional 60/40 portfolio and what might be ahead. Additionally, home prices continue to rise as risks in the industry slowly start to build. Mea...

13/04/2022

New article!

Crude: 9.382M Cushing: 0.450M Gasoline: -3.649M Distillates: -2.902M Despite this huge build, which can be easily explained, this is not a bad report as those product draws offset. Imports were DOWN over last week by 305K bpd (2.135M barrels on the week) but exports were DOWN even more at 1.513M bpd...

13/04/2022

New article!

Stocks generally perform very poorly amid high inflation Equities are generally accepted as a good inflation hedge. However, as with many tropes in finance, this one crumbles under rigorous examination. In fact, stocks generally perform very poorly amid high inflation, although needless to say, some...

13/04/2022

New article!

UK inflation soared to 7%, making a move to 8.5% in April likely. Given the bigger picture, inflation is set to remain elevated going well into 2023. One big driver of inflation is food inflation, which is hard to solve due to fertiliser issues in Europe. Meanwhile, Germany is looking to diversify i...

13/04/2022

New article!

Another country of the Quad that has been quite active as of late is Japan. As mentioned yesterday, it will host the upcoming Quad, but this will culminate a couple of months of hectic diplomatic activity. The first event worth noting is the first ever 2+2 meeting between Japan and Philippines, aime...

13/04/2022

New article!

ASIA PACIFIC MACRO April 13, 2022 The main theme of today is once again inflation and how the central banks are attempting to fight it. Today, the RBNZ announced a record 50 bps hike, which is more than expected, as the central bank is trying to combat a 32-year high inflation. Several other countri...

12/04/2022

New article!

Metallic Zinc The major uses of zinc metal are in galvanizing iron and steel against corrosion and in making brasses and alloys for die-casting. Zinc itself forms an impervious coating of its oxide on exposure to the atmosphere, and hence the metal is more resistant to ordinary atmospheres than iron...

12/04/2022

New article!

There is no imminent Fed put to save the stock market, and who’s going to buy bonds when QT starts Inflation is obviously the theme of the day, but there’s more to it than simply US CPI. German wholesale prices rose more 22% last month, the most on record. While it is easy to blame war-related [...

12/04/2022

New article!

On April 11, the Fourth Annual 2+2 meeting between US and India was held at Washington, after a video meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Biden the day prior. It comes at a crucial time, given all the recent events that somewhat strained relationships between these two Quad members. Th...

12/04/2022

New article!

The economic effects of geopolitical situations we previously covered, specifically in Sri Lanka and Pakistan. On top of those, inflations and other supply-chain disruptions are continuing to persist, creating concerns in several countries (with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warning once again about th...

12/04/2022

New article!

Long-term bond yields in the euro area are rising. We look at risks facing the ECB, which includes potential inflation divergence and its ability to keep a lid on long-term bond yields and spreads in light of stagflation risks. Related, consumer prices in Germany made it above 7% as input prices con...

11/04/2022

New article!

China continues its draconian zero covid policy which has been far outweighing the US PR release, and the 1.5M bpd of Russian oil that is being shunned. In March, China’s consumption was down 600K bpd, but this has further worsened in April, as the number of people under lock down has ballooned to...

11/04/2022

New article!

The Fed may find itself rooting against corporate America during earnings season Corporate America is about to show the Fed how far behind the curve it is in terms of monetary policy. US companies begin disclosing their results for the first quarter this week, with the first up being the big banks l...

11/04/2022

New article!

On April 9, there was yet another chapter in the current political crisis in Pakistan. As mentioned previously, it was the day of the long-delayed no-confidence vote and it almost saw yet another delay. There has been quite some hectic activity surrounding it, as the government used all the tools av...

11/04/2022

New article!

The supply and energy-related disruptions are causing havoc across the whole region, with some more impacted than others. One of the most impacted has been China, which is continuing to face the consequences of the lockdown in Shanghai and in large swaths of its territory. Those consequences will re...

24/04/2022

22/04/2022

22/04/2022

22/04/2022

22/04/2022

21/04/2022

21/04/2022

21/04/2022

21/04/2022

20/04/2022

20/04/2022

20/04/2022

20/04/2022

19/04/2022

19/04/2022

19/04/2022

19/04/2022

18/04/2022

18/04/2022

18/04/2022

17/04/2022

17/04/2022

14/04/2022

14/04/2022

14/04/2022

14/04/2022

13/04/2022

13/04/2022

13/04/2022

13/04/2022

13/04/2022

12/04/2022

12/04/2022

12/04/2022

12/04/2022

12/04/2022

11/04/2022

11/04/2022

11/04/2022

11/04/2022

Address

Website

Alerts

Shortcuts

Share