26/03/2020
Transmission rate of Coronavirus is estimated to be 2-2.5. So, by default, the number of cases in most countries should be increasing substantially every day. But we are seeing a very steady average for a majority of countries (i.e. around 100 in Pak, India, around 5-6K in Italy, Spain, nearly 1-2K in UK, Switzerland, nearly 2-4K in Germany, France etc). This implies that the official number of daily new cases does not reflect the actual number of new infections, but only the testing capacity of the country.
Data analysis by tens of scientists and experts suggest at least 5 to 10 times more cases than officially reported (for each country). The most hopeful anticipation for covid-19 vaccine is in 08 months. In reality, it may take up to 2 years. Considering the dynamics of the virus, long timeline of vaccine availability and governments' limited capacity, infection seems inevitable for tens of millions of people. The good news is that it is not life-threatening for 90% people.
Without vaccination, the only option for most countries would be to move towards herd immunity. At least 60-70% of whole population needs to be infected to achieve it. Sadly, many would lose lives in the process.
All this to say that we are likely to be stuck in this pandemic for several months at least. For countries like Pakistan, no government package or order is likely to be enough in the long run. Every individual is on his or her own. Don't rely on others. Do your individual part and change how you eat, socialize, do business and spend leisure time. Everyone's only priority should be to remain away from infection individually, and ultimately others will be inspired to adopt the same lifestyle. This may be enough to save many people around you.
Since, probability of infection for each individual is a lot more than most people think, start your preparations from this moment. Build your immune system by eating the right diet, taking care of underlying medical conditions and improving physical fitness. If you want to move beyond your own self, tell others about real facts, stay away from misinformation and, especially, take care for your elders.
