18/09/2025
Most people are innumerate (for the illiterate out there, that means poor understanding of math and numbers).
The most common toxic consequence I see in the this innumeracy is when it comes to mass public killings in general and school shootings in particular. By the way, I say mass public killings, not mass shootings, because most of the mass shootings included in mass shooting figures every year in the US are gang related, done in private (typically a deranged father who shoots his wife and kids, then himself), or they don't actually kill more than 2 or 3 people.
Over the years, almost every time I see people debate gun control in the United States, there will be some snarky comment you guys can keep your guns and just keep dying in mass shootings or having your kids die in school shootings. This nasty statement only makes sense if the person who said it thinks that dying this way is actually a high probability event in the US.
This is where numeracy comes in. What is the probability of a random American dying in a mass public killing event like the Las Vegas shooting or the Pulse Nightclub shooting or Columbine in a given year? Given that somewhere between roughly 50 and 150 people die in such events every year, the probability is (50 to 150)÷US population...
That yields a probability of about 1 in 4 million. Regardless of your stance on gun control and the 2nd amendment, this is a really bad argument.
