Hurricane Whisperer

08/09/2021

Tropical Storm Mindy has formed.

16/08/2021

3:30pm Monday 8/16 Update: Tropical Storm Fred has made landfall near Cape San Blas, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be near 65 mph.

Heavy rainfall will persist throughout the southeast from Fred and the interaction with a cold front that will be lingering.

Grace is anticipated to now move into the gulf of Mexico and cause impacts to the Texas coastline of the US mainland and Mexico.

Invest 96L is going to be named Tropical Storm Henri today and could provide some impacts to the mid Atlantic states this upcoming weekend.

16/08/2021

11pm Sunday 8/15: Fred is now a strong Tropical Storm with winds upward to 50mph and higher gusta moving NNW. Life threatening flash flooding from heavy rainfall and Storm surge is expected to occur Monday into Tuesday in the Florida panhandle and big bend.

Grace is slowly getting her act together as it moves over Caribbean, and forecast intensity is slightly off depending on its eventual land interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba. Georgia and the Carolina's are not at much risk anymore from Grace but will continue to monitor it as it still poses a threat to South Florida and the entire Gulf coast including Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, and Mississippi. Invest 96L is getting better organized near Bermuda and could be a threat to the mid Atlantic states late next week.

15/08/2021

5pm Sunday 8/15: Grace has weakend to a Tropical Depression and remains elongated with a ragged circulation. Grace will restrengthen tonight into a Tropical Storm as it passes Puerto Rico and moves over Hispaniola. South Florida is not out of play yet for impacts from Grace.

Fred is moving NNW and organizing as it's now a Tropical Storm with winds at 45mph. Heavy rainfall will continue for Florida tonight and Monday for Georgia and then Monday evening into Wednesday for South Carolina and North Carolina, with isolated tornadoes and flash flooding possible. Also, we are watching Invest 96L that has the potential to effect the east and mid Atlantic coast late in this upcoming week.

15/08/2021

11PM Saturday 8/14: Grace is a Tropical Storm with winds upward to 40mph. More of Florida is now back into the cone of uncertainty.

Fred is expected to become a Tropical Storm on Sunday.

Fred will move inland in Florida on Monday evening into Tuesday.

Life threatening flash flooding can occur from Fred in the South east for the first half of the upcoming week, then approaching Grace will exacerbate flooding in the southeast as grounds will be already saturated from the heavy tropical downpours from Tropical Depression Fred (Georgia) and remnants of Fred in south and North Carolina. I will update you again at 1am and 3am Sunday then again at 11am, 12:30pm 3pm, 5pm, 9:30pm and 11pm Sunday and so forth for the the following days in the forecasting period.

15/08/2021

10pm Saturday 8/14 Tropical Update: What a model shifting day it's been with Grace but 00z runs have shifted back to the east and shows more of a threat to Florida than it did earlier today. What does this mean?

18z HWRF (which I believe the HWRF performs well with guidance after center fixes and model recon data ingestion early on than some other models give or take a few other variables worked in from analysis) shows a strong category 1 Hurricane approaching South Florida late Wednesday and Thursday of this upcoming week. The trajectory the model guidance is on plus a blend of the consensus of other models guidance continues to keep me monitoring and concerned that Floridians will see a Hurricane mid week of this upcoming week. I'll have a new update after the upcoming 00z operational model runs.

14/08/2021

5pm Tropical Update 8/14: Grace is moving West at 26mph with winds at 40mph. Grace has lost some strength as it was relocating it's center but the NHC notes that the track has only shifted southward after adjusting the position of the center in the model guidance envelopes which by the way the center is not well defined therefore definitely am not taking this model guidance into full account as it's not fully worth it given Grace trying to organize and close off her low level circulation to a well defined one.

Intensity guidance for Grace continues to be stronger than forecast by the NHC but there is a considerable amount of uncertainty for them in the track and intensity as a system that reforms its center to the north will strengthen more but if the system remains weak and to the south then it will be a weaker storm with land interaction and wind shear disrupting it. So at this time I still see a cat1 hurricane coming to Florida mid week to late week of this upcoming week.

The 12z EURO ENSEMBLES plus the 12z GFS ensembles show that either Grace moves WNW then NW towards Florida on either the Atlantic or Gulf coast side and curves up the southeast states of Georgia and South Carolina.

Overall, Grace is a considerable worthy storm of concern for the southeast of the United States and I'll continue to monitor it closely. Meanwhile, Fred has yet to regenerate into a Tropical system as it remains an open Tropical wave. By tomorrow it should be Tropical Storm Fred again as it continues to provide a surge of lift and Tropical moisture to fuel storms in Florida and Georgia then into the Carolina's on Monday evening into Wednesday.

14/08/2021

12:30pm Tropical Update Saturday 8/14: 06z GFS guidance on Grace from yesterday to today has shifted in it's track and intensity but continues to heighten the monitoring needs for Grace for the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina impact zone. This morning guidance run shows Grace approaching South Florida and drenching then entire state Friday into Saturday of the upcoming week with heavy rainfall and gusty winds as a category 1 hurricane, weakens to a Tropical Storm then regenerates into a category 1 hurricane off the Georgia coastline before pushing inland into Georgia and South Carolina.

06z HWRF operational run shows Grace approaching the southeast Bahamas in 5 days and then heading towards Florida. What's to note is models are performing well in the short range for Grace and the track error is widening earlier on without much recon data from the storm in the guidance envelopes. That will change later today and throughout the rest of the forecasting period as many recon missions will be flown then ingested into the models. Do not take this a definite track as we are only sharing this to highlight what we are watching as we monitor and forecast Grace.

14/08/2021

11am Saturday 8/14 Tropical Storm Grace has formed moving West at 23mph with winds at 45mph. What does this mean for the southeast ?

06z model guidance at 3am this morning was significantly west from 00z last night and the latest 12z guidance from 9am this morning has shifted back significantly to the east. The NHC intensity forecast brings it to a strong Tropical Storm as it approaches Puerto Rico Sunday and Monday at 60mph and higher Intensification is possible accordingly to the track intensity guidance at the 12z run. The 06z EURO ENSEMBLES show a Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone likely. My thoughts are that Grace will be a category 1 hurricane at minimum when it approaches Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos islands of the Bahamas Sunday into Monday. Florida impacts could start as early as Wednesday if track guidance is right and impacts to Georgia and South Carolina are not off the table for Friday of this upcoming week. Aircraft recon is flying into the storm today to get better model guidance data.

14/08/2021

11pm Friday 8/13 Update: Tropical Depression 7 is moving West at 22mph with winds at 35mph and will become Tropical Storm Grace early Saturday morning. New NHC update includes more of south Florida and even though intensity guidance suggests a hurricane of Grace in the 00z run the NHC opted to remain conservative at this time on the intensity forecast for Grace bringing it to 45mph winds at the end of the forecasting period in this guidance package.

Fred is still struggling to become a Tropical Storm again but will on Saturday as it approaches the Florida keys and Eastern gulf of Mexico as the most of the convective thunderstorm activity is displaced to the south of the center on satellite imagery. Fred will continue up the west coast of Florida become landfall near Destin, Florida on Monday.

14/08/2021

9pm Friday 8/13 Update: Tropical Depression 7 soon to be Grace 00z model guidance has shifted EAST in this guidance package, a trend seen all day today. What does this mean for the southeast ?

Grace will move west in an environment conducive for development and farther east and North than Fred in the Caribbean. This will let Grace strengthen much more and I do anticipate that Grace will pose a threat to the southeast US. 18z GFS ensembles show a strong Hurricane approaching the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone by Wednesday evening for Florida, Thursday for Georgia or Friday into Saturday for South Carolina and North Carolina.

Fred is moving in the Northern Caribbean and nearing Florida.

Impacts should start to deteriorate for Florida Saturday into Sunday and landfall around Destin and Tallahassee, Florida Monday. Heavy rainfall from Fred will push inland Monday for Georgia and Mississippi, late Monday into Wednesday for South Carolina and North Carolina as a surge of tropical moisture interacts with an lingering cold front.

13/08/2021

5pm Friday 8/13 Update: PTC 7 is now Tropical Depression 7 soon to be Grace moving W at 22mph winds at 35mph. 12z EURO ENSEMBLES and GFS ensembles show Grace approaching Florida in the next 5 to 6 days.

Fred remains a Tropical Depression and will become a Tropical Storm late tonight into Saturday. Residents in Florida should continue to prepare for heavy rainfall, tornadoes and flash flooding from Fred including gusty winds. Then more rainfall for the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone as depicted in the WPC 7 day rainfall totals.

13/08/2021

3:30pm Tropical Update 8/13: PTC 7 soon to be Grace GFS 12z operational run has shifted significantly west to the Florida panhandle as a Tropical Storm, but hurricane models for 18z shows a hurricane approaching the Southeast by Wednesday of next week as a category 1 or 2 hurricane during this model guidance period.

Fred's 18z model guidance is tightening up and Florida residents and need to get their storm preparations ready ASAP.

13/08/2021

12:30pm Friday 8/13 Tropical Update on PTC 7 - Soon to be Tropical Storm Grace then Hurricane Grace is anticipated to approach the southeast US next Saturday and Sunday. This is the 06z GFS run on Grace that puts a strong category 3 hurricane off the South Carolina, North Carolina and Georgia coastline by Monday August 23rd.

Steering patterns look pretty well defined to support noting that the southeast needs to monitor Grace very closely next week. Check out our page for the 3:30pm And 5pm 8/13 Update!

13/08/2021

11am Friday 8/13 Tropical Update: PTC 7 which was Invest 95L has formed and is moving in the eastern Atlantic with a threat to the US mainland possible next week as a hurricane according to the 12z model runs this morning.

Fred is still a Tropical Depression but will become a Tropical Storm today. Tropical storm warnings are up for parts of south Florida and Tropical storm watches are up for the Florida peninsula. Heavy rainfall, 4-7 inches isolated 7-12 are possible for some areas in Georgia (Monday into Tuesday) and Florida (Saturday into Monday) and upwards to 4 inches for parts of South Carolina and North Carolina Monday into Wednesday.

13/08/2021

2am Friday 8/13 Update: Fred is near Tropical Storm strength as it slowly moves WNW at 9mph. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds will start Saturday for South Florida, Sunday for Florida peninsula and panhandle, Monday for Georgia and late Monday into Tuesday for South Carolina and North Carolina if current model guidance remains true.

Invest 96L is getting better organized with a 70% chance of development. I wouldn't be surprised to see advisories issued for PTC 7 Friday which will become Grace either Friday or Saturday of this weekend.

13/08/2021

11pm Thursday 8/12 Update: Tropical Depression Fred is close to being a Tropical Storm again according to the Hurricane Hunters as they continue to survey Fred.

Invest 95L is better organized and will become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm Grace Friday into Saturday.

12/08/2021

5pm Thursday 8/12 Update: Tropical Depression Fred is still maintaining tropical organization moving WNW at 12mph with winds at 35mph. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for south Florida.

Fred will provide heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Florida,.Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone Saturday into Wednesday of next week, with Florida being first then the preceding states day by day. Rainfall totals will exceed upwards and over 4 inches in many places that are both within and outside of the cone of uncertainty. Also Invest 96L is soon to be Grace as winds are up to 35mph, just waiting on a closed low level circulation to give it official Tropical Storm or Depression status.

12/08/2021

2pm Thursday 8/12 Update: Fred is expected to become a Tropical Storm tonight into Friday and heavy rainfall is expected in the southeast from Saturday into Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

Also, Invest 95L has a 60% chance of development in the next 2 days and 70% in the next 5 days as we expect a Tropical Depression to form by Friday or Saturday from this system as it tracks very similar to Fred.

12/08/2021

12pm Thursday 8/12 Tropical Update: Tropical Depression Fred is still maintaining a closed low level circulation despite convective development of thunderstorm activity this morning, however, throughout the day today we can see more development in the system.

Fred is back over open waters and therefore has opportunities to strengthen then interact with a cold front that will increase life threatening flash flooding.

12/08/2021

11pm Wednesday 8/11/2021 Tropical Update: Tropical Depression Fred is moving WNW at 15mph with winds at 35 mph .Alabama, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are In the cone of uncertainty.

12/08/2021

9:20PM Tropical Update Wednesday 8/11/2021: 00z spaghetti model guidance is out for Tropical Depression Fred and Invest 95L. Invest 95L will be a stronger storm than Fred as the next name storm is Grace.

12/08/2021

8:10pm Wednesday 8/11/2021 update: Fred has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression due to land interaction and some wind shear but will be back at Tropical Storm status tomorrow.18z GFS ensembles are very split in their consensus on the track of Fred.

Also the NHC is giving Invest 95L a 60% of development in the next 5 days and it's posed to take a similar track to that of Fred and Elsa but much stronger due to a longer duration of conducive environmental conditions favorable for Tropical development.

11/08/2021

5PM Wednesday 8/11/2021: Fred is now at 40mph moving WNW at 15mph crossing over Hispaniola and nearing the Dominican republican. The New advisory from the NHC has all of Georgia, Florida and Alabama in the cone with a track similar to it's earlier predecessor, Elsa.

11/08/2021

3'30pm Tropical Update Wednesday 8/11: Tropical Storm Fred's 18z models are out and the package has shifted east from the official track line. However, intensity guidance suggest a weaker storm with it being a strong 60 to 70mph storm as it approaches the southeast this weekend into early next week.

11/08/2021

2pm Tropical Update Wednesday 8/11: Fred is moving WNW at 16mph with winds at 45mph. The NHC has upped Invest95L formation development in the next 5 days to 50%.

Residents in Florida need to prepare for tropical conditions this weekend.

11/08/2021

1pm Wednesday August 11th Tropical Update: Fred is moving to the west with winds at 45mph. Early morning track guidance from the 06z GFS and 06z EURO ENSEMBLES show that Fred will move into the Northern Caribbean and Bahama islands while approaching Florida then recurve out to the Northeast with a Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone possible.

Fred is very likely to interact with an advancing cold front that will likely increase rainfall potential in the south east thus inducing life threatening flash flooding and river flooding early next week.

11/08/2021

11pm Tuesday August 10th: Tropical Storm Fred has formed with winds at 40mph moving West at 17mph. Track guidance has shifted slightly to the east but impacts to the Caribbean islands and Florida is still likely.

Increasing wind shear and land interaction is indicated by some model guidance to slow intensification of Fred but conditions are still favorable in some guidance for Fred to become a hurricane while approaching the USA.

11/08/2021

9:40pm Tuesday August 10th Tropical Update: PTC 6 is better organizing and recon data has found some intensifying winds in the northeasterner quadrant and central pressure remains at 1009mb. Fred is forming.

00z guidance package is sporadic with some further east than previous runs while some are still closely resembling previous track guidance. 18z GFS and EURO ENSEMBLES are also shifting with the EURO to the east and the GFS a bit westward.

11/08/2021

8:30pm Tuesday August 10th Tropical Update: PTC 6 is soon to become Tropical Storm Fred tonight with winds already at 40mph just waiting for a closed well defined low pressure to form. Also the NHC has upped the chances for Invest 95L to form with a 30% chance of forming in the next 5 days.

Next update at 9pm with the 00z track guidance and then the 11pm advisory package.

10/08/2021

5pm Tuesday August 10th Tropical Update: PTC 6 is likely to become Tropical Storm Fred tonight. Winds remain at 35mph moving WNW at 17mph. Invest 95L has also formed in the far eastern Atlantic.

Fred is likely to move into the Northern Caribbean island with land interaction with Hispaniola dictating how strong the storm could become before approaching Florida and the Bahamas this weekend. 12z EURO ENSEMBLES show a possible Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina impact zone likely thus the same with a gulf coast states impact zone from Florida to Mississippi gulf Coast shoreline and inland before interacting with an upper level system approaching.

10/08/2021

3pm Tuesday August 10th Tropical Update: PTC 6 is still churning in the Caribbean with winds around 35mph at the latest 2pm update from the NHC. The 18z track guidance is in and it's a shift towards the east from the 12z guidance. Gfs ensembles also have shifted eastward.

Satellite imagery shows the PTC 6 better organized and is likely to become Tropical Storm Fred today.

The NHC is also watching another area for tropical development in the far eastern Atlantic with a 20% chance of development in the 5 day range. Next update is at 5pm with the new NHC track guidance package.

USAF Teal 71 behind flight 2 into PTC 6 today at 4pm.

10/08/2021

2pm Tuesday August 10th Tropical Update: PTC 6, which will become Tropical Storm Fred later today is still at 35mph at the latest 2pm update. HWRF hurricane model guidance package from earlier at 12z is still running with a landfall possible in South Florida as a strong category 2 hurricane, mainly from it's westward motion away from the Hispaniola mountain terrain. More model data and analysis later this evening.

10/08/2021

11:30am Tuesday August 10th update: PTC 6 is churning in the Atlantic with the potential to be a hurricane as it approaches Florida. 12z guidance has shifted a tad bit left with tropical storm watches for the Bahamas and South Florida likely to go up late tomorrow evening and night.

06z gfs ensembles and euro ensembles show a Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and NC impact zone likely.

05/02/2021

Does anyone have any vids, pics & or testimonies to experiencing Hurricane Matthew, Irma, Micheal, Florence, Dorian & the storms from '20 for an documentary?

23/01/2021

Is it me or does Dewpoints make it feel even more cold outside these days?

28/12/2020

With the new unemployment and stimulus bill, get a chime debit card, get a direct deposit and we both get $75 after the first $200.

We'll both get $75 when you open a Chime bank account and set up direct deposit! https://chime.com/r/dewonhuggins

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03/11/2020

11:30am Tuesday November 3rd: This is the 12z GFS run from November 3rd that brings Eta into South Florida before merging with an advancing cold front/trough from the west.

27/10/2020

8:15pm Monday October 26th, 2020 Tropical Update: Hurricane Zeta is nearing landfall in the Yucatan Peninsula then reemerging in the Gulf of Mexico then landfalling in New Orleans, then eastern Gulf Coast then through the Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina impact zone then then Mid Atlantic States before remerging into the Northeastern Atlantic merging with a frontal boundary.

Just won another one!

25/10/2020

11pm Saturday October 24th Tropical Update: we will have Zeta by Sunday morning and a hurricane is likely to form from it.

Looking at the windfield probabilities, explanation is a trough digging South that will increase the wind field. How far South and east the trough positions itself will dictate the exact track of Zeta.

Not even November yet and we are at 28 named storms with more to come.