Weather by Alyssa (2024)

25/02/2021

Talking to Julija was super fun!! Give it a listen if you’re interested!

24/02/2021

An early spring seems to have arrived in Ohio! Temperatures are warming up across the region and allowing for the snowpack to finally melt after our run of winter storms. A chance of showers remains possible throughout the day and into the overnight hours, with temperatures dropping to the mid and upper 20s.

16/02/2021

*9:55PM UPDATE*

Things are quite messy in Ohio due to the winter storm moving through!

First image: the current snow emergencies in effect for our local counties in central and southern Ohio. Note: Mercer County's Level 3 will go into effect at 10PM. A few county levels could not be found to confirm any snow emergency currently in effect.

Second image: current conditions on Ohio State's campus. You can see roads are very messy, and sidewalks are unplowed and unsalted. In-person classes for tomorrow are cancelled, online classes will continue to be held as normal.

Here are the guidelines for each level:

LEVEL 1: Roadways are hazardous with blowing and drifting snow. Roads may also be icy. Motorists are urged to drive very cautiously.

LEVEL 2: Roadways are hazardous with blowing and drifting snow. Roads may also be very icy. Only those who feel it is necessary to drive should be out on the roads. Contact your employer to see if you should report to work. Motorists should use extreme caution.

LEVEL 3: All roadways are closed to non-emergency personnel. No one should be driving during these conditions unless it is absolutely necessary to travel or a personal emergency exists. All employees should contact their employer to see if they should report to work. Those traveling on the roads may subject themselves to arrest.

07/12/2020

Some new things in the works from me, as the semester and exams calm down! A continued progress on my end as I explore how to create weather maps for my forecasts. What better way to showcase it than with a short discussion on tomorrow's wind chills?

The rest of today's snow flurries are moving out of the area, just in time for cold temperatures. As clouds clear out overnight, much of central Ohio will see wind chills drop into the low to mid-20s, with a few spots seeing wind chills near 15 degrees! Any wet roadways will freeze overnight, so be sure to exercise caution on overpasses and bridges, as those are the first to freeze. Possible black ice may impact tomorrow's morning commute as well.

27/11/2020

Given that we are now closer to the arrival of the storm system, here are some of my thoughts:

1) Still too early to call for snowfall accumulations. There is too much uncertainty for the overall track of the low pressure system, along with the timing and track of the freezing line.

2) What is certain is that Columbus will start out with rain for some of Monday. Rain will eventually transition to snow, but the timing is uncertain. Some forecasts show anywhere from before sunrise, to 7am, to 1pm, to even later.

3) Right now, it is *possible* that we may see snow in the state capital. My first thoughts for snowfall accumulation based on current model tracks is about 3"-5". Subject to change, of course, based on model consensus for the freezing line and system track.

Keep watch on this if you're planning to travel overnight Sunday into Monday morning. Traffic impacts will be likely, even with a small amount of snow accumulation. This system will usher in much colder air than we've seen lately, with highs forecast to be in the mid-30s after Tuesday.

25/11/2020

One to watch?

Seems like winter *might* be making its first real arrival next week! Take a look at these first three images, all from Monday morning at around 7am, then take a look at the fourth image, taken at 7am next Tuesday morning. We have three different models with three different tracks! Since it's a week out, it's too early to tell at this given point what precipitation and accumulation (if any) we will see in central Ohio.

So, what's the thinking for next week? A very intense low pressure system up in Canada will phase with a system from the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night into Monday morning along the East Coast. With two strong systems coming together, it will create a steep pressure and temperature gradient. For us, that means some potentially gusty winds, cold temperatures (lows in the low to mid-20s), and potentially some snow.

The timing and forecasted track of the system will make all the difference, however. A system too far east means little snow accumulation, too far west means heavy rainfall, but just the right track gives us a bit of snow.

No matter the weather story, it's important to be prepared especially with Thanksgiving later this week. If you have plans to travel at all early next week, this is a system you'll need to keep your eye on in the Ohio Valley!

04/10/2020

It may look nice outside right now, but that'll change later this afternoon. Showers will overtake the area and give us nearly a quarter inch of rainfall by tonight, a change from some of the mostly sunny days we've been experiencing this week. Temps will drop into the low 40s tonight with showers diminishing, and we'll see highs in the low 60s tomorrow.

07/09/2020

Pictures from one of the tornado warned storms that moved through Pataskala earlier this evening.

(Credit: Nick Hawkins, OSU Meteorology student)

07/09/2020

**This warning is no longer active**

Tornado warning active in Franklin County until 5:45pm. Baby hook with decent velocity is north of Westerville. New Albany, Pataskala: TAKE COVER NOW!

04/09/2020

I certainly was not expecting to wake up to such a nice (and dare I say, a little chilly) morning. KOSU recorded a low of 59 degrees just before 8:00am while KCMH hit 61. We are finally at a comfortable dew point after sitting between 80-100% humidity for much of the week!

For tonight, temperatures will dip down into the lower 50s with calm winds. Tomorrow will see highs near 80 with sunny skies and winds near 5-10 mph. No precipitation is expected for tomorrow with the high pressure system that will remain over us for most of the weekend.

For the rest of your Labor Day weekend, highs will be in the mid- to upper-80s for Sunday and Monday with mostly sunny skies.

31/08/2020

Here's a look at the hourly temperatures for Columbus tomorrow! We're currently overcast at 77 degrees with the dew point making things humid at 66 degrees. Tomorrow will remain humid with dew points in the mid-60s and highs in the mid- to upper-80s and a chance of showers and thunderstorms possible in the evening.

15/08/2020

Don't let that sunshine fool ya, it's still humid in Toledo at a toasty 88 degrees and a dew point of 65, giving us a heat index near 90 degrees. Relief will be on the way soon, as the first of two cold fronts will work their way through the region starting overnight tonight, leading to cooler than normal temperatures for tomorrow. It will stay warmer overnight thanks to those humid dew points hanging around, with a low in the mid 60s. We'll see tomorrow's highs in the low 80s with a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms forming along the cold front.

11/08/2020

Severe thunderstorm watch is now out for the rest of northwest Ohio until 1:00am. Primary threats include scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph and isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter are both possible.

10/08/2020

**THIS WARNING HAS EXPIRED**

Tornado warning still out for the southern metro area of Fort Wayne, IN. Circled is a possible tornado, indicated by super res velocity and base velocity. It's currently north of Zanesville, moving towards Ossian in the next few minutes. Pockets of winds near 80 mph are possible behind the warnings. Although the circulation has fallen apart in the last few minutes, a tornado may still be possible.

05/08/2020

Here's a look at current temperatures throughout the area. All of us are seeing VERY comfortable temperatures in the low 70s, dew points only reaching the mid-50s for most areas with Toledo being the current exception at 48 degrees. Highs will only reach the upper 70s today for Toledo!

Extended outlook:
We'll see this high pressure pattern stick around for a while as Columbus and Cincinnati may see yet another heat wave for mid-August, ending our abnormally cool run for the dog days of summer. The heat dome will remain in place for most of the month and will bring back high dew points, some reaching near 80 in Toledo at points.

02/08/2020

Today felt reminiscent of a foggy, fall afternoon with the consistent drizzle not seen on radar, the bridge hidden in the haze...luckily meteorological fall starts in 30 days and Halloween is 90 days away!

Tonight's temperatures will reach into the lower 60s, a chillier night than we've seen recently. There's a slight chance of showers overnight with the clouds sticking around through tomorrow. A chance of showers and storms is possible in the morning, becoming more widespread throughout the evening. Below average temperatures will hang around for the rest of the week, as the low pressure system near Chicago will move through by the end of the day Tuesday, ending rain chances for a while and bringing beautiful weather with it!

12/07/2020

Slow moving storms have moved into the Dayton metro area, bringing with them heavy rains and wind gusts of up to 40 mph. Instability should increase throughout the afternoon to bring these storms into the Columbus metro area as well. Storms will clear out overnight, cooling down into the lower to mid-60s and partly cloudy skies. Temperatures will rise into the mid-80s again with mostly sunny skies for tomorrow.

Looking at the week ahead, our next chance of rain after today is Thursday, with temperatures rising back into the 90s by the end of the week.

11/07/2020

A temporary relief from the recent heat waves we've seen recently, as temperatures will only reach the lower to mid-80s for most of the state. Showers and thunderstorms will be seen for Cincinnati as an occluded low pressure system and cold front from a strong low pressure system near Quebec will move across the region through Monday morning. We'll see the heat return once again starting Wednesday.

09/07/2020

A low pressure system over Iowa will make its way through the Ohio Valley tomorrow night, bringing with it a cold front with slightly cooler temperatures than we've seen this week, and more needed rainfall. Showers and storms will form ahead of the cold front mostly in the evening. Temperatures may reach the 90s if storm convection is delayed, but expect temps to hit at least the upper 80s. The majority of Ohio is still experiencing "abnormally dry" conditions due to below average rainfall (about 1.75" for the Toledo area), so any rainfall received will be helpful in reducing the drought we're experiencing.

07/07/2020

Heavy showers are finally giving much of the state to cool down from the high temperatures we've been experiencing...except for Toledo🤦‍♀️. BUT, northwest Ohio finally has a small chance for a cool down this evening as showers and thunderstorms will continue to pop up. Still looking at those scorching hot temperatures and high dew points for the next few days as the high pressure system over the Ohio Valley stubbornly hangs around. For tomorrow, heat indices are expected to reach 100 degrees in Toledo and Cleveland.

05/07/2020

Not much changing once again within the forecast. The heat dome remains over the Midwest, leaving us with hot and humid weather. The earliest chance for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday for southwestern and west central Ohio. Widespread showers and storms will be likely starting on Friday and throughout the weekend. Most of Ohio will see at least high 80s and lower 90s for high temperatures for this week. The hotspot for temperatures to hit the mid- to upper 90s will be Toledo.

04/07/2020

Here are the expected hourly temperatures for Toledo. We're currently seeing dew points near 70 degrees, but these will decrease throughout the day, leading to slightly humid conditions later this evening. Currently, temperatures are sitting at around 80 degrees but will reach the low to mid-90s this afternoon.

03/07/2020

Are we really at the midpoint of summer already?? After a relatively cool start to May and June, the heat has finally arrived and it's not going anywhere anytime soon. This holiday forecast matches much of what we've already seen this week: hot, sunny days with few clouds in the sky and warm overnight temperatures. Temperatures will reach the lower 90s for the state but thankfully the dew points will remain somewhat comfortable if you have to be outside.

**WHAT TO WATCH FOR NEXT**

A heatwave moves into the region for *at least* the next TWO WEEKS as a dome of high pressure stays over us and allows the heat to build over us repeatedly. There are very few chances for showers and thunderstorms to cool us off, which means seeing a likely increase of heat related illnesses. Know the symptoms and differences between heat exhaustion and heat stroke, stay hydrated, limit your time outside as much as possible, and STAY SAFE this holiday weekend and the upcoming weeks. We may see heat advisories and warnings issued as the models continue to confirm highs in the mid-90s with high dew points, leading to heat indices over 100 degrees.

30/06/2020

Here's a current look at temperatures throughout the state. Most areas are seeing dew points between 65-69, even some at 70 degrees, indicating that it is humid or very humid. The heat and humidity aren't going anywhere for a while! We'll be stuck under a ridge of high pressure, which will allow a heat dome to form and keep most of our precipitation away. Temperatures will reach the 90s through the next week with heat indices around 100 degrees.

27/06/2020

A warm and muggy start to your morning here in Columbus with dew points already at 70 degrees! Storms are popping up around Dublin and Powell with some intense rainfall and gusty winds, moving off to the northeast at about 28 miles per hour. More storms for Columbus are on their way and should be here within the next 30 minutes or so. The rest of the line of storms has started to "bow out" near Wilmington and Shawnee Hills, producing some more heavy rain and wind. No severe warnings out yet for the ILN area.

Last night was a busy night: the entire line of thunderstorms was severe warned all the way from northern Illinois into northwest Ohio! Attached is a velocity scan from last night outside of Kalamazoo, Michigan, and while it looks dangerous, seemingly only produced straight line wind damage with several trees being uprooted. This line continued straight through the state to Monroe County where US-23 became blocked due to a downed tree across both lanes. No confirmations of any tornadoes from this system in our areas thus far.

27/06/2020

**9:00pm update**

A Severe Thunderstorm WATCH has been issued for parts of northwest Ohio. Main threats will be very gusty winds and large hail, but isolated tornadoes remain possible as well. Stay safe!

26/06/2020

**6:37pm update: tornado warning has been CANCELLED for Knox County. Continue to watch this storm as it moves southeast, as well as new storms entering Mount Vernon.**

So much for these lines of storms not being severe 🤦 warning from NWS CLE is out until 6:45pm for Knox County.

26/06/2020

*11:50AM Severe Weather Discussion, Current Temps*

Current temperatures in Ohio are reaching the 80s, with most dew points in the mid-60s. Although it appears to be cloudy out, this is actually the Saharan Dust making its way into the Ohio Valley! These temperatures are one of the factors behind the SPC's decision to issue an Enhanced risk for areas stretching from eastern Iowa to eastern Michigan. The main threats associated with this risk are gusty winds (>60 MPH), hail (> 1 inch), and a small chance for isolated tornadoes. The wind and hail will be the main areas of concern for Ohio, based off of the convective setup...

A remnant mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is currently present over the southern Minnesota and northern Iowa border. With this MCV is a cold and warm front (meeting at what is called the "triple point" zone) and a shortwave trough that will be the main drivers of this weekend's severe weather. This trough is associated with the deepening low pressure system originating over Ontario, but will make the storm take a southeastern dive towards us.

Optimal wind shear near the MCV and triple point zone will allow for prime lifting for storms to remain sustained as they move into the Ohio Valley. This wind shear does not stop at the surface, however, as there is steady shear throughout the atmosphere above the surface. Although there is no distinct jet streak near the Ohio Valley, the shortwave trough over northern Illinois is helping to produce divergence, leading to those storms we see near cities like Rochelle, Mendota, DeKalb, and Aurora.

In addition, there is a very warm and moist air mass from the Gulf of Mexico flowing over the area and moving our way shortly, with dew points close to 70 degrees in some parts at the surface. This moisture extends nearly to 10,000 feet above the atmosphere and is another driving factor for these storm formations. Surface based Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) will see values of 2-4,000 J/kg as we see surface heating increase throughout the day.

Storms will predominantly form behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front near that triple point zone and MCV. Since this is the prime area for lifting and stronger wind shear, this is where the main tornado threat is expected to be. The warm front will slowly move across Illinois by dinnertime and through northwest Ohio and Columbus at around 8:00pm, with the MCV moving into central Wisconsin and eventually dissipating to combine with the deepening low pressure system north of Lake Superior.

EXPECTED TIMING

Northwest Ohio will see the first round of storms in the 2:00pm-7:00pm range. The threat is not expected to be high with this round, gusty winds and small hail should be expected. The second line of storms will move through in 8:00pm-4:00am, where we'll see high winds and hail, although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out (it's Ohio, always expect the unexpected with us!)

For the rest of the Ohio Valley, a severe line of storms will move through northern Illinois around 7:00pm. This line will extend from Michigan through Iowa and will move through areas like Chicago and Grand Rapids by midnight (this is the second line of storms mentioned above for northwest Ohio). Northern Illinois is currently in the greatest area for tornadoes (only at about a 5% chance), stretching east to Grand Rapids and back west to Dubuque, Iowa. This will be the primary area to watch for spin-up tornadoes, but the threat may extend into Indiana and northwest Ohio (a 2% chance issued by the SPC).

A 2% chance, although close to zero, does not guarantee a zero percent chance of a tornado occurring! Have different ways to receive severe weather information: local news apps and TV stations, a NOAA weather radio, Twitter notifications from your local NWS office, etc.

25/06/2020

Not much going on weather-wise for today! Some isolated showers have formed near Mansfield but pose no threat to the area. More isolated showers may pop up during the rest of today but no severe threat is associated with these either. Clouds will clear out overnight, leading us to lows in the lower 60s and some warm weather for tomorrow. Mostly sunny skies expected which will hike our temperatures up to near 90 degrees. Dew points will once again rise through the weekend, leaving you feeling somewhat uncomfortable if you have to be outside at all.

Looking ahead to your 4th of July forecast, no rain expected yet but widespread heat looks to be possible!

23/06/2020

Another muggy start to your morning! Most spots are seeing dew points in the "humid" category with a few exceptions (Toledo and Columbus are currently seeing 70 degree dew points). The cold front is currently in western Ohio and will be slowly moving through the rest of the state by this evening, taking the rest of the rain with it. Columbus may see another tenth of an inch of rain for today with higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Once this cold front moves through, it will bring dry weather with comfortable dew points, a slight reprieve before the heat comes back this weekend.

22/06/2020

The rain may have gotten us off to a cloudy and muggy start to this morning, but the clouds have finally cleared to give us some sunlight. The moisture is still hanging around as Columbus is seeing dew points in the mid- to upper-60s and the temperatures have slowly risen back into the mid-80s. A few pop-up showers and thunderstorms have also formed along the I-75 corridor between Dayton and Cincinnati.

Showers and thunderstorms return once again for the overnight hours and hang around for much of the day tomorrow as a cold front once again continues to move through the Ohio Valley. This front is expected to pass through Columbus tomorrow night and bring some dry air with it.

21/06/2020

Columbus is currently sitting at a very toasty 90 degrees with some clouds starting to move in. Storms are currently moving into the Cincinnati and Dayton metro areas; Columbus will see these storms after dinnertime. Storms will move through the state overnight and hang around through tomorrow morning, leading to warmer temperatures overnight, but slightly cooler temperatures for tomorrow's high. Eastern Ohio will continue to see storms through tomorrow afternoon and evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday.

20/06/2020

We'll continue to stay warm and toasty as we finish out the weekend. Temperatures will reach the upper 80s as our chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the next few days. A stationary front will eventually make its way across the Ohio Valley region, bringing with it nearly half an inch of rain through Monday night.

19/06/2020

Here's a look at the current temperatures for the state. Columbus will remain close to the lower 80s for today with a chance of pop-up showers possible for the entire area. Dew point temperatures will continue to increase throughout the day as well.

We'll see temperatures shoot up for the weekend with many areas hitting 90 degrees with dew points reaching the mid to upper 60s, even the 70s for some areas. Be sure to take precautions if you have to spend time outside to prevent heat exhaustion and heat stroke!

16/06/2020

Vacation is fiiiiiinally done with, now back to regularly scheduled forecasts!

Lows will drop into the mid to upper 50s for much of the state tonight with mostly clear skies. Temperatures for tomorrow will climb into the mid-80s with sunny skies. The next chance for rain comes Thursday and Friday, just in time for the heat to move in for the weekend.

Following up from last week's severe weather, NWS Wilmington confirmed an EF-0 tornado in Ross County, six miles WNW from Chillicothe. NWS Pittsburgh confirmed an EF-2 tornado in Beaver County, PA, and two EF-0 tornadoes in Leetonia/Washingtonville and Hanoverton, Ohio.

10/06/2020

** Longer Severe Weather Post with pictures galore**

Image 1: Here's a look at current temperatures throughout the state. All of these areas are currently seeing dew point temperatures around 72 degrees. This building heat and moisture will give way to severe thunderstorms starting this afternoon, leading us to...

Image 2: The Day 1 Outlook from the SPC. Northwest Ohio is the primary area of focus for today, with a 5% tornado risk, 45% and hatched area for damaging wind gusts (of 75+ mph), and a 15% hail risk. Storms that occur in the region may form as discrete supercells or as a line of multi-cell storms, where rotation may spontaneously occur in a line of storms. Short range models are very iffy on the type of formation but either way, the situation may change quickly and will need to be monitored more closely. So why exactly do we have this threat today? Continuing on...

Image 3: MSLP (mean sea level pressure) map of the surface from the SPC. We can see the remnants of Cristobal have made their way into Canada, but we're still seeing the effects. A cold front stretches from central IL down into the Gulf of Mexico which will make its way through Ohio throughout the day today. Storms will form ahead of this front. Combining this with...

Images 4 and 5: the 500mb map and 300mb map from the SPC. The 500mb map shows us a negatively tilted shortwave trough that aligns with this cold front, while the 300mb map shows a strong jet streak. Negatively tilted troughs increase the likelihood of thermodynamic instability and indicates a decent amount of vertical wind shear is present in the atmosphere. This alignment greatly increases the risk for severe weather today and may gradually increase with higher diurnal heating and sunshine seen throughout the day.

My expected timing on storms is preliminary as things may change, but I expect storms to form near the Indiana/Ohio border between 1-2pm. This may not be exact as storms might pop up earlier or later than models expect. Models currently try to predict discrete supercells forming for the early to mid-afternoon but merge storms into a squall line of sorts for the late afternoon and evening. This line will make its way across Ohio from about 5pm to midnight. The greatest chance for strong storms for NW Ohio occurs around dinnertime, 5-7pm. This timing may change as storms speed up or slow down across the state and depends on the speed of which convection starts to fire them up. NWS Wilmington will be launching a special weather balloon this afternoon to gather more details about the current state of the atmosphere.

10/06/2020

*IMPORTANT WEATHER UPDATE* We have been upgraded to a moderate risk for severe storms late this afternoon into the late evening for Northwest Ohio. The rest of the area is in an enhanced risk.The main threat will be damaging winds up to 75 mph and a couple tornadoes possible!
Please stay weather aware later today and have a way to receive watches and warnings!
www.spc.noaa.gov

04/06/2020

Birthday weekend vacation went a taaaaad longer than I planned 😅 forecasts for the next few days will be switched to reflect the Toledo area.

The sun and heat were out in full force today and will continue to hang around for tomorrow, as Toledo will once again see the upper 80s and clear skies. Stray showers are possible overnight and tomorrow night as a stationary front sits to our north in Michigan. We'll see a cold front sweep through the state this weekend and bring "colder" temperatures on Sunday, with Toledo possibly hitting only 76.

I'm hoping to get a new blog post up tomorrow or this weekend on the 10 year anniversary of the June 5th outbreak that affected the Toledo area as well!

29/05/2020

I'm taking the weekend off because it's my BIRTHDAY WEEKEND! Here's a weekend forecast outlook for ya since I'll be taking a small break! Showers may linger around overnight as the cold front continues to move through Ohio this afternoon. Our chances for precipitation finally drop off for this weekend as temperatures will drop below normal for this time of year. We'll some areas top out near 70 degrees for Sunday and Monday. We'll be seeing sunshine again for the weekend and it's going to be GORGEOUS. Hit up your local park and spend some time outside (while social distancing of course).

See y'all again on Monday!

27/05/2020

A warm and cloudy start to your morning here in Columbus. We'll see that chance of showers and thunderstorms stick around for the next few days as the remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha make their way up towards eastern Ohio. I'm tracking a big cool down for this upcoming weekend where we could see temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal in some areas!

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