19/11/2025
The most effective role the international community can play is that of facilitator, not enforcer. Offering diplomatic platforms, technical support, and assurances for both sides can help create an environment where peace negotiations feel safe, equitable, and mutually beneficial.
Horn of Africa Moment That the World Cannot Afford to Ignore
The Horn of Africa stands once again at a precipice. Ethiopia’s recent declaration that it is prepared for dialogue with Eritrea and its call for international encouragement to bring Asmara to the table has opened a narrow but significant window for diplomacy in a region too often overshadowed by conflict. The bigger question is whether the world, particularly Europe and the United States, is paying close enough attention.
For years, the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea has oscillated between cautious détente and simmering hostility. The political landscape remains complex, the grievances longstanding, and the trust fragile. Yet the stakes today extend well beyond history or borders. A renewed conflict between these countries could have profound humanitarian, economic, and geopolitical consequences that would reverberate across continents.
Europe, in particular, cannot ignore the implications. Migration patterns from the Horn of Africa are tightly linked to political instability. Should tensions escalate again, the resulting displacement would likely send thousands onto dangerous migration routes northward a familiar story with increasingly destabilizing effects on European politics. At a moment when Europe is wrestling with economic strain, public anxieties over immigration, and the political rise of far-right movements, another migration surge from the Horn could prove deeply destabilizing.
There is also the matter of trade. The Red Sea corridor remains one of the world’s most strategically critical shipping routes. Any destabilization in the Horn of Africa risks disrupting global supply chains at a time when shocks from the pandemic to the war in Ukraine have already tested their resilience. The global economy does not need another crisis.
For Ethiopia, the message appears clear: stability cannot wait. Its call for dialogue reflects a recognition of Eritrea sovereignty that diplomacy, even when imperfect, is preferable to another devastating conflict. It is a sober acknowledgment that the cost of war human, economic, geopolitical is simply too high.
Eritrea, a nation whose political calculations often diverge from Western expectations, still has an opportunity to respond constructively. To do so would not mean capitulation. It would reflect a pragmatic understanding that regional cooperation offers more security than confrontation. Eritrea’s sovereignty remains unquestioned; what is at stake is the direction it chooses to take at a moment when the region’s future hangs in the balance.
The international community, too, must rethink its posture. To produce meaningful dialogue in this part of the world. But quiet, consistent diplomatic engagement combined with support from regional partners can create the conditions for genuine, substantive talks. Increased involvement from the African Union, the European Union, and the broader diplomatic community would signal that peace in the Horn is not just a regional aspiration, but a global priority.
Ultimately, the responsibility lies with both Ethiopia and Eritrea. Their people share history, bloodlines, culture, and geography. Their futures, whether they choose to acknowledge it or not, are deeply intertwined. To seize this moment for dialogue would not erase the past. But it could prevent repeating it.
In a world overwhelmed by conflict, from Gaza to Ukraine to the Sahel, Sudan a peaceful turn in the Horn of Africa would offer a rare glimmer of hope proof that dialogue can still prevail when leaders choose pragmatism over pride, and when the world chooses to pay attention before it is too late.
