Mark Langford's Weather Page-South Central Texas Weather

19/07/2024

7-19-24. 5:15pm. This Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

Nice to see that a few storms that formed earlier today dropped some additional rain around Bexar County, then SE to the coastal plains. As I do this post, there are some pretty hefty storms just to the north of Corpus.

The stationary front is supposed to lift to the north tomorrow, decreasing our rain odds for Saturday and Sunday. There will still be a few scattered storms, but they will be few and far between.

On Monday, the trough digs further south, sending another cool front into Texas along with several disturbances that will move through our area next week. Models continue to be bullish for a decent rain event, especially in south-central Texas.

Nothing is brewing in the tropics...

18/07/2024

7-18-24. 2:45pm. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

An exciting morning as bonus storms moved through south-central Texas along an outflow boundary from storms that built up in central Texas along the front during the early hours of the morning. As of this post time, it looks like most of the storms have gone p**f, except for the Big Bend area and a couple of pm poppers in south Texas.

There have been 1-2 inch rain totals over parts of Gillespie, Blanco, Travis and Hays counties from this morning's storms. My weather station in NW Bexar County only recorded 0.02.

While there will be a chance for some scattered storms from Friday through the weekend, the rain odds will ramp up considerably from Monday-Friday of next week as another front approaches along with several disturbances from the west. This is a very weird pattern that resembles fall, not summer! The latest 8-14 day outlook from the CPC continues to favor this pattern through the end of the month.

Mark

18/07/2024

7-18-24. 8:45am. This Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Well, as usual, the cool front that was not supposed to move into south central Texas until later today or tomorrow, did not get the memo! We have a line of storms moving south, into the southern counties of south-central Texas as I post this update! I'm not sure how far south the line will go but heads up for some storms moving into the Hill Country, Austin and San Antonio!

I'll have another update out this afternoon.

Let us know how much rain you've gotten and where!

17/07/2024

7-17-24. 4:20pm. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

Everything is still on track for a period of good rain odds and below normal temperatures over the next 7-10 days! A cool front will make a dive into Texas tomorrow, going stationary somewhere to the south of San Antonio. That will give us a chance of rain starting tomorrow. Beyond that, look for scattered storms every afternoon over the weekend, then ramping up next week. I'm impressed with how many of the models are predicting a boat load of rain for the Hill Country...I hope this verifies!

Here is what the SA-Austin NWS is saying in their latest update: "Better chances for showers and storms appear for Monday as a series of upper-level disturbances move over our region with plenty of tropical moisture to play with. Heavy downpours are anticipated with any thunderstorm that develops. Rain chances continue on Monday night into Tuesday with the passage of an upper-level short wave disturbance. The wet pattern continues into Wednesday. High temperatures are likely to be below the climate normals ranging from the mid 80s to mid 90s due to cloudiness and rainfall.

17/07/2024

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16/07/2024

7-16-24. 4pm. This Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

I know the graphics I am posting daily are starting to look pretty similar, but that is a good thing! We are still looking at a trough forming over the plains by Thursday and a wimpy front that will die over south-central Texas on Friday. The front will spark some scattered showers and thunderstorms, but the big change is the trough that will break up our summer high pressure and allow afternoon storms to form almost daily from Thursday through possibly the end of the month as I talked about yesterday. On top of that, we will see some disturbances to increase our rain odds as well. This is a very bizarre pattern for July and more similar to late September!

As always, don't focus too much on the rain totals at this point, just use the models as an overall indicator of a wet pattern ahead.

Still nothing in the tropics.

Mark

15/07/2024

7-15-24. 6:35pm. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

Look for ditto weather for the next couple of days, before a trough digs into the plains and sets us up for not only a cool front, but a NW flow aloft, that will keep us in daily rain chances from Thursday through possibly the end of the month!

Here is what the SA-Austin NWS is saying: "A more perturbed and wet pattern emerges on Thursday with the aforementioned troughing bringing a cold front into Texas. Precipitation chances with this feature are seen as early as Thursday afternoon with chances lingering for the rest of the extended period."

And the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor better than 50/50 odds for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures!

Mark

14/07/2024

7-14-24. 3pm. This Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Back to summer mode for a few days, although with clouds around today, temperatures are mainly in the upper 80's to low 90's.

Our next potential rainmaker is yet another trough that will form in the plains, switching our upper-level winds into the NW and sending another rare cool front late Thursday or early Friday. The combination of a frontal boundary and NW flow will give us several days of scattered storms and keep our high temperatures at or below average during the period. The good news is that like this week, high pressure over us will be weakened again for at least 7- 10 days. Looking at the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, above average rain odds are better than 50/50 and cooler than normal odds fall in the same category!

As far as the tropics go, there is nothing brewing for at least the next week.

As you will see below, the models are still all over the place, as usual!

Mark

13/07/2024

7-13-24. 9:30am. This Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

Another day of some hefty, scattered storms yesterday! My weather station in Helotes (NW Bexar County) recorded 2.27 inches and there were quite a few of you who received 1/2 to 2 inches. As always with convective events, there were also some of you who saw no rain. Hopefully, those of you who didn't see rain yesterday, will be greeted by an afternoon downpour today, before high pressure builds over us on Sunday.

Looking at the latest satellite water v***r imagery, we still have lots of tropical moisture at the surface and mid-levels of our atmosphere thanks to a trough and weakened high pressure over us. Those two combos should give us an active day for more scattered storms.

It continues to look promising for more rain later next week, as a deep trough forms over the plains and sends down another rare July cool front. I'll have more on that on Sunday.

How much rain fell at your place and where?

Mark

12/07/2024

7-12-24. 9am. This Rainfall Roundup is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

As forecast, most of yesterday's rain fell in south Texas and the coastal plains, however, there were a few lucky rain lottery winners in the Hill Country. The inverted trough that sparked yesterday's storms in south Texas will lift a little further north today, giving southern and western counties of south-central Texas a chance for scattered storms today and Saturday. By Sunday, our typical summer pattern returns as high pressure builds over our area again.

I'll have an extended forecast out later this afternoon...hoping you all see some storms today!

If you did record rainfall yesterday, let us know how much and where.

Mark

11/07/2024

7-11-24. 9:30am. This Rainfall Roundup and La Niña Update Combo is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

It was great to see more of you getting rain again yesterday, especially over some areas to the west that are in dire need of moisture. Thanks to our weakened high pressure and lots of surface moisture, (high precipitable water values) we saw some hefty rains scattered around south-central and south Texas yesterday. Expect more scattered activity today through Saturday, although the coastal plains and south Texas will be the favored areas today. Victoria is already seeing some morning storms as I work on this post. An inverted trough over northern Mexico will boost rain odds for Friday and Saturday over south-central Texas before high pressure starts building again on Sunday and shutting our rain window.

As far as drought conditions go, we continue to see some progress, although extreme drought conditions are still a problem for parts of the Hill Country and counties along the Rio Grande. Hopefully, some of the rains that have fallen this week ease drought conditions in these areas a little by next week's report. Drought conditions have been erased for south Texas and the coastal plains.

In regard to La Niña, we are still in a neutral pattern, but should slip into La Niña by August.

From the CPC: "ENSO Alert System Status: La Niña Watch
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is expected to continue for the next several months, with La Niña favored to emerge during August-October (70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance during November-January).

10/07/2024

7-10-24. 9:15am. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

So great to see some decent rain totals yesterday, especially in our western counties! I know that there are still many of you who didn't see much rain, but I'm hoping with our rain window open through Saturday, that the law of averages will kick in and balance out our rainfall totals. Thanks to high precipitable water in the atmosphere, a northerly flow aloft and weakened high pressure, we should see a continuation of scattered storms every afternoon over the next few days until our ridge builds back on Sunday through next week.

My weather station in Helotes (NW Bexar County), reported 1.80 inches of rain yesterday. How much rain fell at your place and where?

Mark

09/07/2024

7-9-24. 1:15pm. This Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

What a nice surprise! Despite Beryl snubbing our area and taking her rain east, we are enjoying thunderstorms from a mid-level shortwave in the western counties this morning and continuing into the afternoon! Movement of the storms is SE. We will continue with a chance for scattered storms through Friday, thanks to an eroded high over us.

Please post any rainfall totals and where your location is.

From the SA-Austin NWS:
..FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Texas, including the following
counties, Bandera and Kerr.

* WHEN...Until 230 PM CDT.

* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
- At 1231 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin
shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain
have fallen.
- Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Medina, Kerrville, Vanderpool, Tarpley, Ingram, Hunt,
Waltonia, Lost Maples State Natural Area, Kerr Wildlife
Management Area, Kerrville-Schreiner Park and Camp Verde.

09/07/2024

7-9-24. 9am. I'll have a post out this afternoon, but just noticed these storms moving SE, along I-10 west on radar.

08/07/2024

7-8-24. 5:30pm. This Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

Thanks to some wrap around moisture and a short wave wrapping around Beryl, a few showers in the western counties dropped around a third of inch of rain on some rain lottery winners earlier this afternoon.

Through Friday, a stationary front, some short waves and an eroded high pressure, will give us a chance for pm poppers throughout south-central and south Texas. While these will certainly not be drought breaking or lake filling rains, every little bit helps.

By this weekend, high pressure builds back over us, shutting down rain chances and increasing our afternoon high temperatures! Long-range models are hinting at rain chances returning in about 7-10 days, but for now, no rain events are on the horizon. The tropics are looking quiet for now, but as we know, that can quickly change!

Mark

08/07/2024

7-8-24. 8:45am. This Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

I know that many of you were disappointed when Beryl moved to the east but based on what I'm watching on the news this morning in Houston, with the rain also comes the wind! I have seen reports of wind gusts over 80mph. Beryl ended up strengthening just as it came on shore this morning to a Cat 1 hurricane. Prayers out there for those of you in the path of Beryl and I hope as it weakens, some of the destructive winds will diminish as well.

Please feel free to post images from the storm and don't forget to tell us where your location is.

I'll have another update this afternoon on rain chances for south-central and south Texas...thanks to the rare July cool front and some upper-level short waves moving in from Mexico, there is a chance for rain this week.

Mark

07/07/2024

7-7-24. 10:45am. This Tropical Update and Rainfall Roundup Combo is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

Before we talk about Beryl, let's talk about some great bonus rain that fell across south-central Texas yesterday! While I know that many of you missed the rain, (including my weather station in NW Bexar County), there were some impressive rain totals in Real, Gillespie, Blanco, Travis and Guadalupe counties. I have posted some rainfall graphics below and here is a link from the SA-Austin NWS of their totals across south-central Texas:

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=PNSEWX&e=202407071455

Now on to Beryl...

The good news is that we can all watch her on radar to see if she has any tricks up her sleeves as she approaches the Texas shoreline today. The NHC still thinks Beryl will hit between Palacios and Matagorda tomorrow morning as a Cat 1 hurricane, but they are concerned that she could grow to a Cat 2, so if you live along the coast don't take Beryl lightly! If this track holds, then Beryl will have very little impact on south-central Texas except for the far eastern counties. I'm hoping there could be some wrap-around showers and some thunderstorms over the next couple of days and with deep tropical moisture in place, we could see some poppers as well.

As I have been mentioning, our rare July cool front will act as a wall and keep Beryl moving to the NE when it makes landfall. I have included a surface map for Tuesday below. As of this post time, there are no future storms in the 7-day NHC forecast, so once Berly moves away, we are back to our regular scheduled summer programing.

As always, please make sure you have emergency warning apps on your device switched on or you have a NOAA weather radio turned on to receive warnings and evacuation updates. I am a one-man band, and I can't keep up with every location in south-central and south Texas.

Good luck to all of you living near the coast...I hope Beryl doesn't strengthen much in the next 24 hours!

Mark

06/07/2024

7-6-24. 4:15pm. This Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

Great to see a lot more activity on the radar than the models had forecast for this afternoon along a stationary from Del Rio to San Antonio to Houston. Some locations in the Hill Country have already recorded over an inch of rain and these storms should last until sunset.

Although a bit on the trite side, all eyes on the Gulf where Tropical Storm Beryl is getting its act back together after being slapped around by the Yucatan and some wind shear. The latest update shows that Beryl’s sustained winds have grown to 60 mph this afternoon and it is forecast to turn back into a hurricane by tomorrow before moving onshore on Monday. The track has shifted even further east, moving the best rain odds along with it. Is it just me or does it seem like the models are often wrong for rain forecasts west of I-10, but rarely get it wrong east of I-10! For days, this looked like a no brainer, with Beryl forecast to move up the Rio Grande, then “p**f”, all models moved it east and they continue to do so.

Going forward, please tune into your local broadcast media, weather apps and NOAA weather radio for warnings and evacuations for your area. As a one-man band, I can only keep up with general watches and warnings.

Anyhow, below are the latest greatest model runs and updates from the NHC. For some reason the latest Euro did not run at 12z.

If you have some rain totals from today’s storms, please feel free to share them!

Mark

06/07/2024

7-6-24. 9am. This Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Let's start off with some non-tropical news first...there is a chance for some afternoon poppers in south-central Texas along a stationary front. It's bizarre to me that a cool front has made to a Del Rio to San Antonio line on the 6th of July!

With that in mind, yet another cool front will be dropping down on Tuesday morning, steering Beryl to the NE as it moves into Texas somewhere near Matagorda Island on Monday. If it does end up being a hurricane, that location is better than striking Corpus or Galveston!

As of this post time, the NHC is forecasting tropical storm Beryl to re-generate back into a Cat 1 hurricane just before landfall. As I have been mentioning, if you want some rain west of I-35 and I-37 root for Beryl to stay a tropical storm so that it spreads a wider area of rain around its center as opposed to a hurricane that tends to keep more moisture at its core.

While our cone of uncertainty has decreased in size, there is still a wide enough area to the west, where if Beryl shifts just a little that direction, we could see more rain west of I-35 and I-37. I would not go to Vegas on the odds, but it still remains possible!

I'll have another update this afternoon.

Mark

05/07/2024

7-5-24. 2pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

Let's talk about the "Cone of Uncertainty"! As you can see in the latest 1pm NHC update, Beryl still has a huge cone of uncertainty even though we are only 3 days from potential landfall. This dotted coned area represents where the storm could potentially track. While the NHC more often than not, hits pretty close to their forecast track, this storm is very complicated, because its eventual strength and how strong the trough is in the plains, will determine where it goes. As of this morning, the thinking is that the trough (rare in the summer) will be strong enough to push the eastern side of the high pressure further east, steering the storm further east. The latest model runs are supporting that. If Beryl stays pretty weak, it will be less prone to being steered by the trough and more likely to move more NW. As far as how strong Beryl grows, that too, is still hard to forecast...it's been downgraded to a tropical storm after being ripped up by windshear yesterday and the Yucatan Peninsula today.

New edit: I just looked at the latest surface map for Tuesday morning and realized we have yet another variable! The NWS is showing the cool front dropping down to a Del Rio to College Station line with Beryl around San Antonio. If the front goes stationary (forecast) then we could see the scenario of the Canadian model play out.

From the NHC: Users are reminded that the average NHC track error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and it remains too soon to pinpoint where the greatest impacts will be. However, watches for portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be required later today.

While I know many of you are giving up on rainfall from this storm, there is an additional variable that the latest Canadian model run has found...what if this storm moves north, then goes stationary? Check out the rainfall forecast from the Canadian model. This is possible if the storm moves north, then bumps into high pressure in central Texas.

For those of you who live along the coast, please check in with your local NWS forecasts and the NHC for updates every few hours. At this time, I really can't say where Beryl will end up. It could move onshore from South Padre Island to Beaumont! I can say that if you are planning on going to any of the coasts this week, you may want to re-think those plans. Even if the storm doesn't hit your particular beach, there will be lots of rain, wind, storm surge and rip tides.

Mark

05/07/2024

7-5-24. 9am. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Bahia Services and Rentals in Port O'Connor, TX https://www.facebook.com/BahiaServicesandRentals

I'll have a more thorough post out this afternoon on Beryl, but I'm not liking the latest tracking forecast. If this continues shifting the storm north and east, then the heavy rains that are needed in the western counties and the Hill Country will shift away from that area. We will know more about this potential shift when Beryl crosses the Yucatan by later today.

Mark

04/07/2024

7-4-24. 1:30pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Dietz-McLean Optical. www.dmoptical.com

Happy 4th!

Well, so far Beryl is listening to me! The latest track forecast from the NHC has Beryl moving up the Rio Grande after moving into Mexico, just south of Brownsville on Monday morning. If this track stays steady, this puts the western counties and the Hill Country in a good position for some decent rain next week and of course, heavier amounts in south Texas and the coastal plains. FYI: We all know there is plenty of time for things to change, but for now, rain odds are looking good!

As far as how strong Beryl may end up being, the latest forecast is for it to become a Cat 1-2 storm as it gains strength in the Gulf. None of the models are currently growing it to a major hurricane...I hope this verifies!

On an interesting note, the reason Beryl will make a turn to the NW is because a rare summer trough will form over the plains this weekend, sending a cool front as far south as the northern counties of south-central Texas. This trough will tear apart the high pressure, leaving a small gap that will draw in Beryl. I have the graphics below along with the latest update and model runs.

Mark

03/07/2024

7-3-24. 5:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Davy Ranch Supply in Yorktown, TX. davyranchsupply.com

At 5pm, Beryl's winds are still at 140mph and it looks like it is trying to replace its eye.

The 5pm Beryl tracking update is starting to look like the latest GFS model run, with the storm going in south of Brownsville, then heading NW. This would certainly help the drought areas of south-central Texas but have the potential for way too much rain in south Texas! Again, we are still 4-5 days out and there are a lot of things that could change.

Here is what the NHC is saying about Beryl's future: "Beryl should continue to experience some westerly shear for the
next 24 h, and the ECMWF forecasts moderate shear to persist until
the hurricane makes landfall in Yucatan. This portion of the
intensity forecast calls for weakening as shown by the guidance.
However, given that Beryl seems reluctant to weaken, the forecast
is near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The cyclone
should weaken to a tropical storm while crossing Yucatan. The
intensity guidance has become less enthusiastic about the potential
for Beryl to re-intensify over the Gulf of Mexico. However, the
model forecast upper-level winds seem generally favorable, and
based on this the intensity forecast continues to call for Beryl to
re-gain hurricane strength over the Gulf."

I've thrown in latest model updates for those that have done so and included some bonus material like ocean water temperatures and anomalies.

We will see what happens tonight!

Mark

03/07/2024

7-3-24. 1:45pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by 5E Trailers in Marion. They’re here to help you find the perfect trailer at the best price! https://www.5etrailers.com/

Despite it losing its eye, Burly Beryl is having no problem keeping its sustained winds at 140mph as it moves WNW, just to the south of Jamaica. Next stop will be just to the south of Playa del Carmen and Cozumel. Being on the NE side of the storm, I can assure you that people in that area are hoping Beryl weakens before they have to deal with her!

While the models are certainly still divided on where Beryl ends up making landfall and moving afterward, most are getting more and more bullish on rainfall for south and south-central Texas. As I have mentioned before, the best-case scenario for drought relieving rainfall would be for Beryl to weaken to a tropical storm, make landfall near Brownsville, then travel NW along the Rio Grande. Whether Beryl gets my memo is still to be decided!

Right now, there are several possibilities for Beryl's future. The first thing we need to see is how powerful Beryl ends up when moving through the Yucatan...if it remains a hurricane, then the odds of Beryl becoming another Cat 2 or 3 in the Gulf are possible. If it gets beaten up and re-emerges in the Gulf as a weak tropical storm, then the odds of it growing into a major storm again are lower.

Another thing to watch is the possibility that the high pressure over us gets pushed further east than forecast. A trough over the weekend will make a big difference where the ridge moves. Too far west and the storm moves into Mexico and tracks west, not giving us much rain. Too far east and the storm will make a dramatic turn to the north and east, sending most of the heavier rain to our east, where it is not needed!

Mark

03/07/2024

7-2-24. 7pm. This Tropical Update is brought to you by Jack Garrett and Phase II Fertilizer. Phase II, Inc. was founded in 1994 with a mission to Help Family Farmers & Ranchers Thrive. You can reach Jack at 361-275-4841.

I've held off a bit, waiting for some latest greatest model runs to appear. As of this post, there are a few thoughts roaming around in my brain. One is that because it is early July, there will be a chance that if Beryl does move into Texas (still no guarantee), it won't be moving very fast and could possibly stall, due to a trough that will be located to our NE. If so, we could see a boat load of rain from the storm in some areas. The latest GFS run is now forecasting that in its 18z run. Don't build an ark yet, as this is only one run and may change by tomorrow!

Another concern I have is shared with many of you...with the Gulf waters being so warm, could Beryl grow quickly again after it crosses the Yucatan and become a Cat 2-4 storm? It's not impossible and yet another reason we have to keep watching this storm closely as it exits the Yucatan. I'm not trying to scare anyone, but this far out, anything is still possible.

Fortunately, we pay the folks at the NHC to figure all of this out and I'm sure a lot of them are as concerned as I am! Here is what they said in the last discussion: "There remains considerable spread in the intensity guidance when Beryl emerges over the Gulf of Mexico, although there is somewhat better agreement that the cyclone will intensify some while crossing the Gulf. The new forecast follows this trend and lies near the middle of the spread-out intensity guidance.