05/08/2023
HOURS AGO, Nigeria’s Bola Ahmed TINUBU sought the Nigerian Senate’s approval/support for military intervention in Niger Republic.
In just two days (Sunday), the 7-day ultimatum given to the new military leadership in Niger, will expire. And from all indications, TINUBU & ECOWAS are going ahead with military intervention. So, in his letter to the Nigerian senate, he sought approval for 1. Military buildup & deployment of personnel for military intervention to enforce compliance of the military junta in Niger, should they remain recalcitrant (refuse to cede power to Bazoum, the ousted former president of Niger.) 2. He also sought approval and support for cutting off electricity to Niger Republic (Nigeria supplies about 70% of Niger’s power) and it appears this has already taken effect as reported widely in the last day or two. 3. Closure and monitoring of all land borders with Niger Republic & reactivating of the border drilling exercise. 4. Preventing the operation of commercial and special flights into and from Niger Republic; Blockade of goods in transit to Niger especially from Lagos and eastern seaports, etc. These are large scale war time activities, and I can’t but wonder, how much time is left for the citizens of Nigeria and these other ECOWAS countries to prepare for eventualities?
Reportedly, some of the actions Mr. TINUBU sought approval and support for are said to already be either in effect or all set to go into full effect.
On the side of Niger Republic, a lot has happened and much of it isn’t even being reported.
First, the military Government in Niger has signed a new agreement with Russia’s Wagner PMC to offer Specialized defense services to Niger Republic in the face of EXOWAS threat of military intervention. By virtue of this new agreement, Wagner units in Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic have at this moment made their entry into Niger Republic, reportedly. It is estimated that about 12-13,000 Wagner fighters could take part in what many have called, potentially, the biggest war in Africa since World War 2.
Also, Niger has cut off diplomatic ties with Nigeria and Togo, whereas Algeria and Egypt, boasting the strongest military on the continent, arguably, have indicated they’d stand with Niger Republic if attacked. Other countries that have pledged support for Niger are Guinea, Burkina Faso, Libya, Chad, and Mali.
Just in case you have no idea why the EU and the US are abundantly in support of any military action from ECOWAS, in 2022, Niger Republic covered about 25.38% of EU’s Uranium needs and became the second largest supplier of uranium to the bloc, after Kazakstan which supplied about 26.82% within the same period. Meanwhile, RUSSIA is among the world’s largest uranium exporters, producing about 2,500 tonnes in 2022. France, EU are heavily dependent on nuclear energy, and more-so now that energy imports from RUSSIA has been cut off through sanctions imposed on RUSSIA over the RUSSIA-Ukraine war. Despite denying it in their media, France/EU know that losing Niger Republic means losing big, especially when that loss is Russia’s gain. They can’t stomach this and that’s why I knew war was coming.
As I asked in my previous post, how prepared are we in Nigeria and other west African capitals and cities for a full scale war that could set the entire region on fire? And there are no rules of engagement when Africans fight. No one can tell how this war approaches our borders. No one has any clue what the other guys have up their sleeves. We’re talking not just Niger but a bunch of nations that have tasted military conflicts under the harshest conditions for years, banding together to fight for their survival against ECOWAS forces. And who gets to stand and watch? The west! Africa.
J.C. Okechukwu.