31/03/2020
An interesting article by a Greek group led by Professor Tsiordas, highlighting the high transmissibility/low-severity profile for the current pandemic. The study may indicate the rationale behind the Greek strategy against Covid-19, giving priority in the disease mitigation, rather than its suppression.
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042218v1
We sought to estimate the ascertainment ratio of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Wuhan, China, using a modified Bayesian SEIR model with publicly reported case data. We estimated it at 0.465% (95%CI: 0.464-0.466%), implying that the outbreak in Wuhan was abated by depletion of susceptibles, rather than publ...