VIPAC

29/06/2023

Ukraine's long-awaited summer offensive began a few weeks ago. So far, the successes are limited, as political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott confirms. However, this was not to be expected otherwise, as the Russians have been bolstering their defenses for months. The fact that Ukraine has to concentrate its air defenses on the cities and lacks interceptors also means that the offensive is making only slow progress. Given the overall situation, Ukraine cannot live up to the high expectations that the Western media in particular have built up.

The attempted coup by Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin last weekend showed that Putin's power is not limitless. At the moment, however, it will not change the course of the war or the balance of power in the Kremlin. The absence of the Wagner mercenaries from the front is not pleasant for the Russian army, but it can be compensated. This is also because Wagners combat strength is not as high as it was at the beginning of the war.

The European Parliament's decision to call on NATO to admit Ukraine immediately after the war adds to the pressure for war - even though NATO has already decided that early admission is out of the question. Russia, however, feels vindicated by this and can use this decision for its propaganda.

The attacks on North Stream 2 and the Kakhovka Dam, the different peace initiatives and their chances of success, Lukashenko's role in the solution of the coup attempt, a possible future for Russia after its defeat and the strengthening of the BRICS states are further topics of this conversation.

https://youtu.be/ujaV3RlDdcs

Ukraine's long-awaited summer offensive began a few weeks ago. So far, the successes are limited, as political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott confirms. Howe...

24/02/2023

In our brand new interview with political scientist Univ. Prof. Dr. Gerhard Mangott we analyze
"1 year of war in Ukraine"

Independent journalists Alexander Stipsits and Mag. Christian Janisch discuss with
Univ. Prof. Dr. Mangott how Russia´s war against Ukraine - that was launched exactly one year ago in the morning hours on February 24th 2022 -
has affected and changed the international political order and what it means for
Ukraine, Russia, NATO, EU, Europe, the USA, China and global stability going forward.

Prof. Mangott explains how the war most likely will progress and why a ceasefire and a peace agreement is not likely in 2023.

In our brand new interview with political scientist Univ. Prof. Dr. Gerhard Mangott we analyze "1 year of war in Ukraine" Independent journalists Alexander S...

21/12/2022

In our last podcast for this year, we look back at the year 2022 - together with political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott. Even if there are currently no ma...

21/12/2022

In our last podcast for this year, we look back at the year 2022 - together with political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott. Even if there are currently no major territorial gains in the Ukraine war, the fighting continues to be fierce. Based on the situation on both sides, it is unlikely that there will be a winner of this war in the medium term, nor is there any realistic potential for peace negotiations, as both sides leave no room for them.

Iran's support for Russia's war will continue regardless of the unrest that has rocked Iran for months. Whether there will actually be a change in Iran's political leadership this time is to be hoped for, but not very likely in the short term. Nevertheless, the new generation is no longer willing to live under an autocratic system. In the long run, this should have a positive impact on Iran.

China's foreign trade has plummeted massively. Likewise, the Zero Covid policy has proved to be a major boomerang: there have been civil society protests in numerous places. Mangott estimates that the chance of an attack on Taiwan in the near future as a distraction from domestic Chinese problems is not too high.

Other topics in this podcast include: the role of the U.S. in the world, the Mid Term Elections and their implications, the European Union in multi-crisis mode, and the question of the threat to democracy given the failure of many European governments to address the pressing problems of the population (migration, inflation, etc). Will there be more nationalism or more international cooperation in the future? As it currently stands, the answer is not too pleasant.

In our last podcast for this year, we look back at the year 2022 - together with political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott. Even if there are currently no ma...

17/10/2022

After Ukraine's successful military offensive in recent weeks, Russia has largely managed to stabilize the front. The hopes of some commentators for a quick Ukrainian victory were thus somewhat premature. It is difficult to say how great the shortage of ammunition and technology actually is within the Russian armed forces; what can be said, however, given the hundreds of missiles that have been launched in recent days, is that Russia is unlikely to have a problem continuing the war in the short term.

The partial mobilization, with 220,000 reservists now called up, is meeting resistance within the Russian population. However, it is not expected that there will be an uprising against Putin in the short term. Morale within the army has been and remains weak, as many soldiers do not know what exactly they are fighting for in Ukraine. Reservists are often sent to the front after only 10 to 14 days of training; however, the bulk will likely be used for administrative tasks in Russia to free up well-trained and combat-experienced soldiers for the front.

Even though only 4 countries supported Russia in the UN resolution against the annexation of the four eastern Ukrainian provinces, among those 35 countries that abstained were large countries like India and China. Russia is not isolated worldwide, as can be seen from the almost unchanged voting behavior since Russia's invasion. Russia would face global isolation if they used nuclear weapons.

Whether and how to compare the Ukrainian war with other wars since 1945, what influence the demonstrations in Iran have on Russia, why Belarus will not intervene in the war, whether Europe will maintain sanctions even if the winter is harsh, whether the annexation of the eastern Ukrainian provinces has increased the chance of using nuclear weapons and why the likelihood of their use would increase if there were further Ukrainian successes are other questions that will be addressed in the course of this conversation.

After Ukraine's successful military offensive in recent weeks, Russia has largely managed to stabilize the front. The hopes of some commentators for a quick ...

02/09/2022

Zum Anlaß des Todes des ehemaligen Generalsekretärs der kommunistischen Partei der Sowjetunion, Michail Sergejewitsch Gorbatschow, blicken wir auf dessen Leben und Wirken zurück. Er war ein sehr charismatischer und einflussreicher Politiker, der die Probleme in Russland richtig identifizierte; seine Reformen griffen aber sehr oft zu kurz, wodurch er das Zusammenbrechen der Sowjetunion nicht verhindern konnte bzw auch dazu beitrug. Während er im Westen als Reformer verehrt wird, ist er in Russland auf Grund der horriblen 90erjahre bis heute verhasst.

Augewachsen in einer Bauernfamilie mit einer ukrainischen Mutter, trat er schon in jungen Jahren der KpdSU bei und studierte Rechtswissenschaften. Im höchsten Amt angekommen war er zwar bereit, den Ländern Osteuropas einen eigenen Weg zuzugestehen; in der Sowjetunion selbst ließ er aber des Öfteren hart durchgreifen, so zB im Baltikum und in Kasachstan. Ziel seiner Handlungen war eigentlich, das kommunistische Erbe zu retten, weshalb er von der schnellen Orientierung osteuropäischer Länder gen Westen überrascht war.

Das Verhältnis zu US- Präsident Ronald Reagan, der ein glühender Antikommunist war, war zu Beginn unterkühlt, verbesserte sich aber rasch nach mehreren persönlichen Gesprächen. Beide Politiker erkannten, dass ein Nuklearkrieg nicht gewonnen werden kann – die Basis für Abrüstungsgespräche war gelegt. Die darauffolgenden Verträge gehören wohl zu den größten Errungenschaften in Gorbatschows politischem Wirken – auch wenn er dabei im Eigeninteresse handelte: denn für seine Reformen wurde dringend Geld benötigt, das davor in die Rüstung floss. Auch zu Papst Johannes Paul II. pflegte er ein entspanntes Verhältnis.

Auf die knappe Wahl Gorbatschows 1985, bei der er seinen Widersacher Grigori Romanov, der als Hardliner galt, besiegte, wird im weiteren Verlauf des Gesprächs ebenso eingegangen, wie auf Glasnost und Perestroika und Gorbatschows Fehleinschätzung bzgl der Veränderungen, die sich daraus entwickelten. Ebenso wird beleuchtet, welches Verhältnis Putin und Gorbatschow pflegten, und wie Letzerer indirekt und unbeabsichtigt die Basis für den Erfolg von Ersterem legte.

https://youtu.be/bvbUXjVnozo

Zum Anlaß des Todes des ehemaligen Generalsekretärs der kommunistischen Partei der Sowjetunion, Michail Sergejewitsch Gorbatschow, blicken wir auf dessen Leb...

30/08/2022

It is difficult to verify how successful the counteroffensive launched yesterday by Ukrainian forces in the southeast of the country has been so far, says political scientist Prof. Gerhard Mangott. What is confirmed is that the fighting in this region has intensified.

Obviously, the so-called special operation is not as successful as Russia expected. In any case, the enlargement of the army by 137,000 additional soldiers shows that Vladimir Putin assumes that the war in Ukraine will last for a long time. The fact that especially minorities and poor Russians are among the victims among the Russian soldiers so far is - as in other armies - mainly due to the fact that people without economic perspectives tend to join the military.

As fighting continues around the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhya, the situation is still dangerous. At least both sides were able to agree to send IAEA experts to the power plant - the largest of its kind in Europe - for an inspection.

Mangott rejects the idea of excluding all Russian citizens from visas, which has been propagated by Eastern European countries in particular: Russian civil society, which is already under pressure, must continue to have the opportunity to make personal contact with the West. Moreover, doing so would confirm the image Putin paints of the West.

The role of Erdogan in the negotiations, the attack on the daughter of Putin's alleged ideological mastermind Aleksander Dugin, the latter's role in Putin's thinking, the burning of Russian natural gas that is not delivered to the West, and the issue and impact of sanctions are further topics of this conversation.

https://youtu.be/2U41fjFejac

It is difficult to verify how successful the counteroffensive launched yesterday by Ukrainian forces in the southeast of the country has been so far, says po...

10/05/2022

In this episode, we welcome German-Russian political scientist Matthias Penkin, who gives us insights into the situation of ordinary people in Russia. He himself took part in protests against Putin and the war several times and has since left the country for professional, but also personal reasons.
The risk of speaking out against the war in Russia is real, Penkin said. Repression by state organs has increased dramatically. The hacks of various Russian media sites are a positive sign of resistance, he said, but these actions are perceived only by those Russians who have an affinity for new media. Nevertheless, Penkin considers them more effective than demonstrations in the streets - especially since the state's chance of repression is also lower.
Putin's speech on May 9th brought little new. General mobilization is not off the table, but it would do massive damage to the people's trust in Putin. His decision to launch the "special operation" was probably based on false information from his intelligence services, which were afraid to confront him with the truth. Many senior officials have since been ousted. For Penkin, Putin's use of the N**i comparison for Ukraine is a betrayal of Russian history, undermining Russia's great achievements in World War 2.
How the population feels about Putin, which personalities could drive Putin from power, whether sanctions will help end the war, and why it is important to maintain contact with the civil society in Russia are other topics of this interview.

https://youtu.be/XdaRwWNJe64

In this episode, we welcome German-Russian political scientist Matthias Penkin, who gives us insights into the situation of ordinary people in Russia. He him...

20/04/2022

At the beginning of our new episode on the war in Ukraine Professor Mangott takes a closer look at the Donbass offensive announced by Russia. Russia needs to make major territorial gains to actually control the Donbass and to maintain the narrative that ethnic Russians in this region can be protected from genocide. Mangott believes the May 9th target date for this offensive is overstated.

Western arms supplies are essential to the Ukrainian side's defensive struggle. The question of whether Ukraine can win the war thanks to these arms deliveries or whether they will only prolong the war is still disputed among military experts.

Mangott adds that one must be aware that one hardly gets access to neutral information in Russia, even if some Telegram channels still offer the possibility to see propaganda-free images from Ukraine. Mangott holds that in war one must always be aware that both sides work with propaganda, and therefore one must be critical of all information.

The reasons for his criticism of the Austrian chancellor's visit to Moscow, for which he reaped a sh*tstorm, Mangott lays out in detail.

Ukraine's possible accession to the EU sooner than expected, Finland's and Sweden's aspirations to NATO membership, the situation in Hungary and Serbia after the recent elections and their relationship with Moscow, and the question of whether an end to the war in the near future is realistic are further topics of this interview.

https://youtu.be/6HSUI7j6Ujs

At the beginning of our new episode on the war in Ukraine Professor Mangott takes a closer look at the Donbass offensive announced by Russia. Russia needs to...

14/04/2022

In the latest episode of our VIPAC podcast, we turn our attention to the Hungarian elections held on April 3, 2022, which ended with a clear victory for Viktor Orban's ruling Fidesz party. Together with independent journalist Lukács Csaba, we analyze the consequences of this election for Hungary and its relationship with Russia, the European Union and the Visegrad countries.

The control over the media and the resulting propaganda machine are as much a part of the explanation of the great electoral success as the Hungarian electoral system. The rural population is largely behind Orban, while the urban population supports the opposition. Due to the low level of independent control of the election process, electoral fraud is very likely.

Many Hungarians view change critically because, for the most part, they lost in the process in a historic perspective. The father figure Orban propagates stability and regularly has the attitude of the people checked via surveys in order to adapt to it or to counteract it in time via the media. The caps on energy prices, which are of course tax-funded, are very popular with Hungarians.

With regard to Russia, Orban is trying a double game: on the one hand, he is going along with the European Union's sanctions; on the other hand, he has maintained a close relationship with Vladimir Putin for years, which has led to great tensions within the Visegrad countries.

The increase in the influence of populists worldwide, the connection between voting behavior and education level, the difficulties for independent media in Hungary, Hungary's relations with China, the situation of Ukrainian refugees and the relations between Hungarian and Austrian citizens are also topics of this interview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaGiFsc53L4

In the latest episode of our VIPAC podcast, we turn our attention to the Hungarian elections held on April 3, 2022, which ended with a clear victory for Vikt...

28/03/2022

Our guest this week is Gerald Knaus, sociologist and migration researcher and co-founder of the European Stability Initiative. By way of introduction, he talks about his family and friendship connections to Ukraine, but also to Russia.

At the moment, about 4 million refugees have arrived in Europe. Depending on how long and intense the war continues, between 6 and 10 million people are expected.

Civil society has responded quickly, as it did in 2015. But the European Union has also been surprisingly quick to agree that all people with a Ukrainian passport or residence permit should be allowed to move freely in the EU, including access to the labor market and social benefits.

In the coming weeks it will be important to organize the distribution of refugees across national borders. According to Knaus, this will require an international refugee coordinator - preferably a former top politician who maintains good contacts with European governments and is universally respected.

In contrast to 2015, the willingness of broad sections of the population to help the Ukrainians is high. That is why politicians were also able to react quickly and boldly. It is to be hoped that this acceptance will be maintained and that a rapid solution will be found for the many people who have no relatives in Europe. To this end, Knaus proposes so-called hubs where people are registered and then distributed across Europe by airlift.

In contrast to Great Britain, which so far has not signaled much willingness to accept refugees, Canada extended an unlimited invitation for Ukrainian refugees.

How the border control organization FRONTEX could improve its image in this situation, what the current situation of Russian emigrants/refugees looks like and why Ukraine as well as the Balkans should be quickly linked to Europe are further contents of this interview.

https://youtu.be/l4r_9QGhRPU

Our guest this week is Gerald Knaus, sociologist and migration researcher and co-founder of the European Stability Initiative. By way of introduction, he tal...

24/03/2022

At the beginning of this week's feature on the Ukraine conflict, we join Professor Mangott in taking a look at the history of Ukraine to understand why resistance to the Russian invasion is so fierce.

The weakness of Russia's warfare, as reported in the media, does not apply to all front lines; nevertheless, it is obvious that the plan to quickly take Ukraine has failed. Meanwhile, several leaders of the army and intelligence services have also been suspended.

A new iron curtain, a new Cold War are very likely developments for the near future. The massive increase in NATO troop strength in Eastern Europe and Putin's narrative of a Russia independent of the West support this assumption.

According to Mangott, the OSCE will not be able to play a major role in possible negotiations, especially not under Polish chairmanship.

That Ukrainian refugees are being used by Putin as a political weapon against Europe is obvious from the ruthless bombing of civilian facilities and homes alone. Mangott explains, how Europe will have to deal with the much higher number than in 2015, and why the integration of these refugees into the economy and society will be easier.

In addition to the question of how the Russian decision to settle natural gas in rubles in the future will play out, and what expectations one may have of President Biden's visit to Brussels, the rest of the discussion also focuses on whether we are currently witnessing a turning point away from the liberal model of the West toward the dominance of illiberal countries such as Russia and China.

We conclude this episode with a call not to cut off all contacts with Russia and not to exclude scientists, artists - but also ordinary Russian citizens - from the world because doing so would only support Putin's narrative. Putin is not Russia.

https://youtu.be/5JdFTfrNSYw

At the beginning of this week's feature on the Ukraine conflict, we join Professor Mangott in taking a look at the history of Ukraine to understand why resis...

15/03/2022

This week we welcome political scientist Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner, who will explore with us the possible ways out of the war in Ukraine - unfortunately he cannot spread much optimism.

Putin's war, which is increasingly being waged against civilians, could only be ended with a comprehensive ceasefire. Both sides' proposals for serious peace talks are on the table - and both sides will have to make concessions in the process. If no peace can be agreed upon, the outcome will be disastrous for both sides: Russia would win the military victory, but in the long run it cannot hold Ukraine, nor can the Russian economy survive a total blockade by the West.

Putin's decisive reason for this war is Ukraine's possible accession to NATO. Even if this accession is more than unlikely in the coming years, it would be an important signal to Putin to declare neutrality. Regarding Donbass and Crimea, negotiations would in any case be more difficult.

No one knows how far Putin wants to go militarily: whether he will risk a new Afghanistan, whether he will seek a division of Ukraine along the lines of Korea, or whether he will even consider the nuclear option?

Why Putin launched this war just now, why zones of interest will have to be kept in mind and whether the open world of globalization has come to an end are further topics of this conversation.

https://youtu.be/Y5MY5yj62mk

This week we welcome political scientist Prof. Dr. Heinz Gärtner, who will explore with us the possible ways out of the war in Ukraine - unfortunately he can...

09/03/2022

In this week's analysis of the Ukraine war, we explore whether the Ukrainian president's latest statements - that NATO membership is no longer mandatory, and that the status of Donbass and Crimea can be negotiated - offer room for negotiations for a possible peace in Ukraine.

From a global perspective, Professor Mangott comments both on the impact of sanctions and on how Biden's bid to form an anti-Russian oil alliance with Middle Eastern states, as well as Venezuela, is doing. It is possible for Russia (and China) to banish the dollar from their economic cycle in the long run, but not likely at this time, as the dollar seems to remain robust.

All information reaching us from the war should be viewed with a critical distance: whether Russia is actually experiencing as many failures as colpotted in the media is difficult to verify.However, it is very likely that Russia would have expected a quicker end to hostilities at the beginning of the war.

Mangott elaborates on how he himself deals with the search for trustworthy information - and with the role that he now plays as a multiplier of trustworthy information. Established Western media continue to be more credible for him, on average, than sources from social media. However, there is hardly any free media left in Russia, especially after the new law that criminalizes reports about the war.

The Orthodox Church as an important base in Putin's power apparatus is discussed as well as the danger of NATO being drawn into this war, e.g. by the no-fly-zone demanded by Ukraine. Germany's new role as a possible future military power is also examined.

https://youtu.be/S8wsAiYj3W4

In this week's analysis of the Ukraine war, we explore whether the Ukrainian president's latest statements - that NATO membership is no longer mandatory, and...

01/03/2022

Though Gerhard Mangott - like many experts - believed that there will be a militay conflict in the Ukraine, he didn't really believe that we will see a full fledged war.

The health status of Vladimir Putin, which has been the basis for numerous speculations over the past couple of years, is our first talking point.

The European defensive situation still relies heavily on the United States, though several countries are going to increase their defense budget.

https://youtu.be/sOBCtvXqv18

Though Gerhard Mangott - like many experts - believed that there will be a militay conflict in the Ukraine, he didn't really believe that we will see a full ...

18/01/2022

In this episode we revisit the situation in Ukraine; we analyze the protests in Kazakhstan and whats going on behind the scenes; and we take a look at the Russia-NATO talks of last week – and why Europe is no serious player in this confrontation anymore.

https://youtu.be/mkU_fdd_S-Q

In this episode we revisit the situation in Ukraine; we analyze the protests in Kazakhstan and whats going on behind the scenes; and we take a look at the Ru...

21/12/2021

Together with Political Scientist Dr. Gerhard Mangott we take a look at the growing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine due too the massive deployment of Russian troops along the border. We review what happened since 2013, and we go through different scenarios of what could happen in the coming months.
We also analyze Russias foreign relations with Europe, the USA and China.

The odds for a hot conflict are unpleasently high.

https://youtu.be/819nur5JmGs

Together with Political Scientist Dr. Gerhard Mangott we take a look at the growing tensions between Russia and the Ukraine due too the massive deployment of...

11/01/2021

Basierend auf meinem Artikel „Der Tag, an dem Donald Trumps Politkarriere endete“ (link - siehe youtube video) unterhielt ich mich mit dem Amerikaexperten Alexander Stipsits über die Wahlen in Georgia und vor allem über die Ereignisse des 6.1.2021 in Washington DC: was war geschehen, wie sieht Donald Trumps politische Zukunft aus, wie holt man die 74 Millionen Trumpwähler wieder in den Diskurs zurück, welche Fehler haben die liberalen Kräfte gemacht, und was können wir in Europa daraus lernen.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VKHU_TDG4uQ&feature=youtu.be

Basierend auf meinem Artikel „Der Tag, an dem Donald Trumps Politkarriere endete“ (link s.u.) unterhielt ich mich mit dem Amerikaexperten Alexander Stipsits ...

02/11/2020

On our last visit to the United States we were provided the chance of an interview with Jamaal Withers, the grandson of Ernest Withers, personal photographer of Marthin Luther King. Together with his aunt, Jamaal ist running the Withers foundation based in Memphis, Tennessee:

https://youtu.be/MMaLeO0hoBo

On our last visit to the United States we were provided the chance of an interview with Jamaal Withers, the grandson of Ernest Withers, personal photographer...

20/10/2020

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-losing-ground-with-white-voters-but-gaining-among-black-and-hispanic-americans/

There’s a well-known truth in politics: No one group swings an election. But that doesn’t mean that the demographic trends bubbling beneath the surface can’t ha…

14/10/2020

Fair analysis why Trump is trailing Biden in many battleground states.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M52Xg3V3P8k&list=PLLri3HDD8DQv04m48El9Z3L9KbafbliM7

Krystal Ball and Saagar Enjeti evaluate the Trump campaign's recent bid to win back the senior vote ahead of the election. About Rising: Rising is a weekday ...

12/06/2020

In this excerpt from an online interview, ecologist, artist and technological visionary Richard Lowenberg talks about Digital Communal Communication Infrastructure:

https://youtu.be/F66EpolIaQY

01/06/2020

At last year's Politicon we recorded an interesting panel discussing one of the most important current topics: Is America racist?

https://youtu.be/EmaqRM62u-w

The Civil War might have been a century and a half ago, but the wounds of slavery, Jim Crow, and legal prejudice live on– holding millions of us back and div...

10/03/2020

We Invited the expert for international security matters, Dr. Heinz Gärtner, to talk with us about Neutrality, journalism, the Iran Deal and North Stream 2.

27/01/2020

27/01/2020

Extinction, Climate Crisis, the end of Life as we know it...and its our fault ...
Rarely have issues been so contentious, and the value of information so hard to discern. We have met with genuine experts in the field of Ecology to shed some light on what is really going on:

https://youtu.be/mBB8hzrEn40

Extinction, Climate Crisis, the end of Life as we know it...and its our fault ... Rarely have issues been so contentious, and the value of information so har...