22/10/2019
Ottawa (3-12) at Hamilton (12-3)
WHEN: 4 p.m. Saturday
WHERE: Tim Hortons Field
RADIO: TSN 1200, FM 104,7, Sirius XM 167 (English), 174 (French)
STREAM: TSN GO
TV: TSN, ESPN2, BT Sport
WEATHER: Mix of sun and clouds, 11C, 20% chance of rain, Winds 11E
GAME LINE: Ticats by 17.5
FIVE THINGS TO WATCH
Logan’s Run
The Redblacks hope that getting punt/kickoff returner Stefan Logan back into the lineup from the injured list can provide a spark. Starting drives with good field position against a good Hamilton offence is necessary.
2. Double Trouble
Receivers Brandon Banks and Bralon Addison are a huge 1-2 offensive punch for the Tiger-Cats. Banks is second in receiving yards (1,233) to B.C.’s Bryan Burnham (1,329 yards). Addison is fourth with 1,123 yards, an amazing step up from his 2018 rookie season when he had eight catches for 113 yards. With 94 catches, Banks is one reception shy of a new personal best and is No. 1 with 16 catches of 20-plus yards.
3. Ottawa’s D Line
If the Redblacks can’t put some pressure on Hamilton QB Dane Evans, they’ll be in big trouble. J.R. Tavai has an active three-game streak with at least one QB sack. He’ll need to extend that to four. Other starters on Ottawa’s defensive line this week: George Uko, Mike Wakefield and AVery Ellis. With 24 sacks, Ottawa ranks ahead of only Montreal’s 22. Edmonton leads the CFL with 50. The stat is sometimes deceptive. A team that gets a lot of quarterback pressures can also have success on the defensive side of the ball.
4. Ticats Carrying On
The Ticats’ leading rusher this season is Sean Thomas Erlington, who is injured and has played only three full games. Several guys have filled in and allowed the team to keep a solid run game. Behind Erlington are Cam Marshall (198), Bralon Addison (182), Dane Evans (161), Maleek Irons (159), Anthony Coombs (158), Jackson Bennett (143) and this week’s starter Tyrell Sutton (113).
5. The Simoni Show
Sometimes-controversial Ticats LB Simoni Lawrence, who earlier this season served a two-game suspension after a hit to the head of QB Zach Collaros, may be the best defensive player in the East this season. He has 83 tackles, four sacks and two interceptions and is a leader for a defence that’s been very, very good.
THE KEY MATCHUP
Will Arndt vs. Ticats Defensive Line
Making his second CFL start, Arndt, the Redblacks QB, looked good at times last week against the Argos, (passing for 288 yards and two touchdowns, completing 28-of-42 attempts), but threw three interceptions. He’ll try and tidy that up against a tough Ticats defence. Look for the Ticats, who are tied for third in sacks (with Winnipeg), to dial up the heat. Ja’Gared Davis has 12 sacks, Dylan Wynn has nine and Julian Howsare has six.
INSIDE THE GAME
Ottawa has lost eight straight games … Home teams are 43-26 this year (Ottawa has kicked the crap out of the stat with a pitiful 1-7 record at TD Place). Hamilton (7-0) is the only team which has not lost at home … If Hamilton wins one of its final three games, the team will set a new franchise record for wins with 13 … Toronto, Montreal and Hamilton lead the CFL in touchdowns when starting a drive from their own one-20-yard lines (six). Ottawa is the only team which has yet to score in the same scenario … Last week in Toronto, Ottawa’s Dominique Rhymes went past 1,000 receiving yard mark for the first time in his career, becoming the ninth receiver to reach the milestone this season … Since the end of Lewis Ward’s field goal-made streak of 69 in a row (Aug. 17 vs. the Ticats), he is 15-of-19, a much more human mark.
PREDICTION: Hamilton 30, Ottawa 16
MY TAKE
Picking against Ottawa in recent weeks has padded my record. Tough to imagine a win for the Redblacks, heavy underdogs in this one, against a team that’s right now the best in the CFL. But … the Ticats have wrapped up first place in the East and maybe they’ll give some of their stars some rest.
STATS PACK
Ottawa
Points For: 17.3 (9th)
Points Against: 30.0 (8th)
Rushing Yards: 78 (8th)
Passing Yards: 245 (8th)
Net Offence: 302 (9th)
Yards Against: 411 (8th)
Hamilton
Points For: 30.6 (1st)
Points Against: 19.2 (1st)
Rushing Yards: 101 (5th)
Passing Yards: 301 (3rd)
Net Offence: 383 (1st)
Yards Against: 357 (6th)
Source:ottawacitizen.com