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06/04/2024

Increase in electricity tariff ….

We all know Nigeria's problems are basic and easy to solve. We all agreed that the cost of governance needs to be reduced drastically, but nothing tangible has been done apart from lip service. We know that subsidies for those on pilgrimage and state-sponsored are bad, but because the beneficiaries are the elites, nothing has been done apart from lip service. N90bn of our money will be used to subsidise Hajj this year. Removing subsidies on PMS is another good policy, but that has yet to be true in Nigeria. Of course, we all know that corruption is killing Nigeria, but we all refuse to stop our corrupt tendencies.

We all have our share of the blame, but most importantly, our leaders are out of touch and ideas. You cannot tell someone on N30,000/month not to be corrupt in Nigeria or cut corners by passing electricity meters. The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, has approved an increase in electricity tariff to N225 ($0.15) per kilowatt-hour from N68. This 300 per cent hike takes effect from April 1, 2024. If you look at the percentage increase, you will be surprised, and it will not take effect in 3 or 6 months but immediately. That is the highest level of insanity when the economy is practically down, and people and businesses are barely surviving.

The average household consumption in France is estimated at 4700 kWh/year or about 12.88 kWh/day. Dutch households use an average of 10.39 kWh per day. The average household in China uses about 5.44 kWh per day. In Saudi Arabia, the average monthly and yearly energy consumption per dwelling was between 30,832 and 36,166 and 1500 to 4500 kWh, respectively. The average hourly electrical energy consumption during working days was 4.12kWh. Let us assume that Nigeria's average household will consume approximately 2kWh/day. If we cannot put on the AC and need to turn off our freezers as directed/suggested by the minister, we would need at least 2kWh conservatively.

Three hundred sixty-five days (365) x 2kWh =730 kWh yearly energy consumption per dwelling = N186,150, which is almost six (6) months' salary of the minimum government wage of N30,000/month.

At least if the government want to increase the electricity tariff, there should be a plan for businesses/SMEs and struggling families with some home energy support payments.

The second issue I have is with band pricing. Band pricing is not new, but it is fairly applied as a tax rate band, where income is taxed at a particular percentage (tax rate). The higher you earn, the higher your tax rate. The same fairness is true in council (like LGA) rate bands. Assessments are based on several factors, such as a property’s size, layout, character, location, change in use, and value. Obviously, someone in Ikoyi is likely to be better off than someone in Agege. Using an hour of electricity supply is not fair to those struggling in less privileged areas. What difference does it make if you use electricity 2 hours a day or 24 hours a day? The rate should be the same, and you will pay for what you use.

If they wanted to introduce banding, it could have been time bands. The time bands are the periods when the price of electricity (the price for each kWh you use) varies depending on the time when it is consumed. The day is divided into three-time bands: Peak hours, standard hours and off-peak hours. That could have been more appropriate, in my view. The fact that you have 24 hours of electricity should not be why you pay more. It just doesn’t make sense and more people will cut corners.

01/04/2024

Study history … costs of war

It is essential to study history to learn from the past and develop the ability to avoid past mistakes and create better paths for the future. The war in the Middle East might spread for three reasons:

(1) Israel could not achieve the objectives set for the war, and
(2) Benjamin Netanyahu would do everything to extend it for his political survival.
(3) The wider it becomes the possibility of US direct involvement

The colonists were still full of themselves, and the war was the only way to oppress and control the world. If they fail when the world is so primitive, I don’t know how they think they will succeed now. They can ask the British about Kenya's Mau Mau rebellion (1952–1960). The recent examples in Iraq, Libya, and Afghanistan have not taught them that people will fight for their homeland, no matter the number of fighter jets and bombs they have.

It is evident that Israel has failed in Gaza and is now trying to widen the war so that its big brother, the US, will be directly involved. Apart from the fact that they will destroy Lebanon and Iran and kill a million people like in Iraq, what else would they achieve? They will also ruin their infrastructure as we have seen in Gaza. But as in all wars, there will be fatalities among the innocent young citizens of their country.

As in recent conflicts, there were 4,431 total deaths (including both killed in action and non-hostile) and 31,994 wounded in action (WIA) as a result of the Iraq War. The number of Iraq killed is subject to debate depending on the source. However, some source says that between 280,771 and 315,190 have died from direct war-related violence caused by the U.S. and its allies. Some estimates put it at more than 1 million deaths.

One common thing to human beings, both the oppressed and the arrogant oppressors, is the effect of casualties on the communities. Their deaths will affect a large community of parents, spouses, children, siblings, and friends. Hundreds of thousands will be wounded in combat or will die indirectly as a result of injuries sustained in the war zones.

Those who survived the war might commit su***de or be left with permanent scars, and for many soldiers, the war experience is traumatic enough to produce post-traumatic stress disorder. To crown it all, it will lead to a refugee crisis by displacing people internally (IDPs), and some will move abroad far beyond the guns and blasts of the war. The same people who bombed them with F35 and their allies who supplied them with bombs will be complaining of refugee problems in the West. Innocent people will lack access to food, health care, housing, employment, clean water, sanitation, and loss of community and homes.

These are the people that will lecture us about civilisation. We need a new world order where there will be justice for all. People’s colour and appearance will not determine how they are treated, where double standards will be a problem of the past. If the US fled Afghanistan after 20 years and handed over to rag-tag Taliban, there are enough lessons in that history. We can see that Israel, with its military power and the support of other colonialist countries, cannot win outrightly the rag-tag Hamas; war and more wars would not be the solution. The colonial mindset of the West is the problem. The apartheid against the Palestinian people must stop. We are now in 2024, but they still think we are in 1900.

26/03/2024

.. challenging the status quo a considerable risk

Mudir Markaz will usually challenge the status quo and provide evidence to support his views. You may agree or disagree with him; that is life. One will become an outcast when one tries to change the narrative or provide a different view of a well-established matter. However, as someone who likes to hear different views, I have learned many new things from him. Different views are standard in academia, but it is difficult when it comes to religious studies, where people of different sects practice in different ways or have different versions of the same story. It is not peculiar to Islam but all religions. You don’t need to always agree with Habibullah, but at least he widens the horizon for those seeking knowledge. This type of scholar prevents dogmatism in religion. In its broadest sense, dogma is any belief held unquestioningly and with undefended certainty. It may be in the form of stories or doctrines of a religion. It is in every religion; therefore, seeking beneficial knowledge is obligatory/compulsory, not to be perished.

A lady friend and I discussed religious issues a few days ago, and I can see that our culture and upbringing have a lot of influence on our belief system. We like anything foreign and do not know there are different perspectives on the same old stories. Our sect and religious affiliation often influence us. We are too narrow-minded when it comes to religion. I asked her if she knew Mandaeism (Sabianism), and she said no. Mandaeism is a Gnostic, monotheistic ethnic religion with Greek, Iranian, and Jewish influences. “Mandaeans claim that their religion predates Judaism, Christianity and Islam, and believe that they are the direct descendants of Shem, Noah's son. They also believe they are the descendants of John the Baptist's original Nasoraean Mandaean disciples in Jerusalem”. Knowledge is vast; you know what you know, and we all learn daily.

If I accept the Shia or Sunni version of a story, how will that be wrong? Besides, well-versed scholars should present all different versions and provide evidence as to why one is probably more realistic/believable than the others. Referring to one unknown source, ‘tira,’ is very common in southwest alfas. Knowledge is not static but evolving as several sources exist on a subject/topic. I read about who was with the prophet in the cave of Thawr. There are many different versions of the story. Even one said, ‘Abd-Allaah ibn Abi Bakr was also there, stayed with them at night, then left just before dawn, making it three people. Hadith is contradictory regarding whether Abu Bakr was in Mecca or Medina when the Prophet set out to Medina. Anyway, whichever you believe in, how will that affect your Deen/Islam? This is not about the pillars of Islam; none of the scholars is saying he was not in the cave, as mentioned in al-Tawbah 9:40.

Social media has played a negative role among some of the Islamic scholars in Yorubaland. There are in-fighting and bad belle among alfas. They are making Islam unattractive to many people. Some of the Alfas are worse than the NURTW guys in the abuse use of social media. There are different churches with different Bibles, and they have their followers without name-calling. If you think Mudir's story is wrong, tell your own to your group without a rancour. It might be challenging for Mudair because he is the standard bearer. It might be because of his knowledge or because of enmity and hatred. ‘Esi oro’ is directly and indirectly used for every word he utters. In an academic sense, that is a significant achievement for Mudir and shows he is an authority in the subject. This means that Mudir is very relevant, and they have not conclusively and definitively proven that he is wrong. When he was sick, there was no reference point. That does not make it wrong because the story is not a Sunni version of the event or a departure from the status quo. The fundamental remains unchanged: the prophet was in the cave .. who was there with him is the bone of contention. That is subject to debate, and this is not new.

17/03/2024

Modern slavery...

In hindsight, we all have worked in a place where we should have left a long time ago. Too many factors tie people down in a relationship or employment. For instance, if you have a young family, you don't want to move, or you have hope that things will change. Sometimes, you don't have genuine reasons, just the fear of the unknown; you just stupidly stay in that relationship or employment.

Listening to Wasiu Ayinde's drummer, Ayanlowo, I pity him and the boys working in that industry. The government needs to regulate the industry to stop this form of modern slavery. There are too many facts in the interview to be ignored, those that are generic to the industry and those that are influenced by the individual behaviour of band leaders.

The industry sucks. I even frowned at Barrister's attitude of sharing the money into three parts, where he would get one part. At least there is transparency in joint counting and verifying the amount in the presence of the band's leaders and representatives is commended. Nothing can be compared with Wasiu's exploitation and treatment based on the interview. It makes Barrister a saint, to be honest.

The government has the power to regulate the industry to create fair conditions for all parties. Labour exploitation is the abuse of people in the workplace for profit. The abuse can be direct and brutal or much less obvious.

04/03/2024

Shake up ...

Something BIG must happen in Nigeria to help our people know the problems we are facing as a country. It is not necessarily bad, but it will help us address our fundamental problems—something beyond the APC and PDP arrangement. Our primary issues result from fundamental problems we often overlook. For instance, we don’t keep time and joke about lateness (African time) as if it was expected or fun to be late. Time anywhere in the world is money. We are not lazy but not hardworking; the majority are dishonest and undisciplined. We are not productive and are resigned to a consumption mentality.

Not keeping time is not a small problem when you know the value of time. We focused too much on the centre, blaming only the president, among many other irresponsible leaders and representatives. Individually, we lack discipline. We put too much emphasis on money and religion because we cannot differentiate between religion and spirituality and need and want. And we have not been blessed with honest politicians who will tell us the truth to awaken our conscience. Corruption is not our main problem because indiscipline breeds corruption and greed and kills empathy.

We all want Nigeria to survive because of the advantages in number, diversity, economics of scale, and significantly reduced transaction costs, which will affect defence spending. In theory, I want Nigeria to be one, but realistically, many impediments prevent it from working correctly. If we are still discussing the unity of Nigeria after 64 years, something must be fundamentally wrong with the union/unity. The question of unity is a fallacy to some extent because what the politicians have done successfully is division among us. Only if the country works well for some regions, people, or ethnicity can we raise the question of unity and fairness. There is no evidence that this is the case, and I do not think this is a significant problem because Nigeria is not working well in its regions, states, or ethnic groups. Sadly, we have been divided along region, religion and ethnicity.

If the governors were God-fearing, we could have made tremendous progress as a nation. Due to our level of indiscipline, we have turned governance into a money-making factory. Our major problem is lack of discipline, and it is tough to instil discipline when you have people who are divided along many sentiments. To cut the cost of governance and use our strength in ethnic politics, it is advisable to re-engineer the nation’s structure in line with our ethnicity, which often follows our political orientation and support. This is because the powers will be transferred from the national to the regional government. This is essential because it ensures that the decision can be made promptly and that the provincial government can be held responsible.

Suppose our solution lies in independence among different nations constituting the present Nigeria. That would be fine for me. We cannot continue to pretend everything is okay in today's Nigeria. Something BIG must occur that will reshape the structure and replace the corrupt politicians. It can be done under democratic dispensation, but it will be quickly done under military rule.

23/02/2024

Electricity sector...

Nigeria has 24 gas power plants with a combined output capacity of 11,434 megawatts. Still, it only delivers around a third of its capacity to the grid due to issues with gas supply.

Natural gas is sold in dollars to power plants because investments tied to building gas plants and pipelines are priced and paid for in dollars. Meanwhile, electricity usage is charged in naira.

Nigeria owes a total of N1.3tn to the power generating companies, of which 60 per cent is owed to gas suppliers. Nigeria also has a legacy debt, before 2014, to the gas companies of $1.3bn; at today’s rate, that is close to N2tn.

With a debt of over N3 trillion, Nigeria cannot continue to subsidise this sector. Therefore, there is a likelihood of an increase in tariff. The government hopes to fix the challenges by switching to naira payments and capping dollar prices for the gas companies.

The Power Purchase Agreement is another thing that is pro-businessmen and anti-taxpayers. If you look at the tariff structure, risk allocation, Gas Supply Agreement (GSA), Gas Transport Agreement (GTA), etc.

Meanwhile, Nigeria has proven gas reserves of 206 trillion cubic feet, which it has struggled to tap due to capital constraints. However, Nigerians have decided to vote for those who will not make the right decisions for the country.

If you look at this sector alone, you will see past misgovernance, poor representation by the leaders, greed, contradictions, higher government expenditure, the effect of forex on electricity supply, etc. And yet, we continue to recycle the same people and complain of hardship. Why would the naira not depreciate further, looking at this sector alone?

I am not a Tinubu man and will never be one because I believe these people cannot solve our problems. Cursing Tinubu is nothing but ‘tuto danu’ wasting your saliva, as we say in Yoruba. You voted for Tinubu, and you are cursing him. Don’t you know you are cursing yourself?

The fact of the matter is that Nigeria is BROKE and has minimal external financing options with higher expenditure. Nigeria is not broke today, but the short-term soft remedies used to cushion the effects have diminished over the years. That is why the predecessors in government are better than the incumbent in governance. This is because the soft options have become very limited … and it has been completely exhausted. For instance, there is no alternative to phasing out the fuel subsidy. That is today's reality. I cannot fault Tinubu in any of his policies today, but one additional policy on agriculture is needed so that we can feed ourselves.

21/02/2024

You are doing well …

All Nigerian leaders have had their moments, but they have all misused and mismanaged them. They have had cult-like support not based on logical reasons but have squandered them. Buhari's support against Jonathan in 2014-15 was enough to remodel the country. But the Buhari, a poor and pious man who ran with integrity, differed from Buhari in power. He broke his promise to stop health tourism after he fell sick, and the trust was broken, and his integrity dented. If you can remember, people were ready to die for Buhari from 2014 to 2015, but unfortunately, Buhari squandered all his goodwill. How can leaders preach change to struggling people when change does not start with them?

The long-suffering during Buhari’s eight years in power provided another opportunity for the next president to have colossal goodwill. But Nigerians decided to vote for the same people in power for over 30 years, not because they provided a new agenda or a change of heart. The usual overselling was done. Tinubu was called a great strategist, a messiah, and a talent hunter. He lied to the people who wanted to be lied to (Efokanbale - rest assured), and he achieved his life ambition to become president. Before he became the president, the country was broken to the bone. That is not reflected in the lavish spending of people in power as they continue their lavish lifestyles after inauguration. The sacrifices were passed only to people with low incomes, and at that point, he squandered all his goodwill like his predecessor.

The fact that we have old faces in his government and the NASS is not Bola’s problem but the problem of those who voted for him. And you cannot blame him for his policies because there are no more alternative measures. Had he been a good leader and honest with the people, he would have told his supporters that the situation was dire and the road would be rough and challenging during the campaign. He could have prepared them for the journey of economic hardship, which is inevitable for whoever wins among the 18 presidential candidates. Trust, central in leadership, was broken because of the leader's lavish lifestyle. When trust is lacking between the leaders and the people, motivation, which is a significant tool in achieving their change agenda, is weakened. He is making it even more difficult for the 'renewed' change to materialise.

How can they ask the people to return to farming when buying jeeps and yachts is the most important thing to the NASS members and the presidency? And without returning to the farm, I do not see how Nigeria can escape this mess. The dollar's value is important because more than 90 per cent of us indirectly rely on foreign goods. From the fuel we use to the clothes we wear, the food we eat, health tourism, schooling abroad, the wine we drink, and the furniture in our homes. That is what we need to correct if we want a better standard of living. A scheme should support agriculture and food production to complement the government's already good policies.

Jonathan and Buhari’s intervention in agriculture failed because it was a top-down approach controlled by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and the CBN. This government should try a bottom-up approach that involves the communities and LGAs, not even the state government. These are the real people who will engage in farming, not those who were given billions to spray on musicians.

At least if you cannot criticise the government, please allow those who are constructively criticising them to do so. When Buhari was commissioning rice mills, we asked about the rice farms. Without the farms, the mills are useless. Those abusing Tinubu today are his support base; why can’t they ask the questions they are asking now before the election? We also need to hold our governors accountable. The state Ministry of Agriculture should also drive food production. Bi ebi bayo ninu ise ise ku ferefe (Food stands first among all basic needs).

16/02/2024

Follow the facts, not the emotion ...

When Nigerians decide not to follow the facts, they will ask you a rhetorical question or make a subtle statement in a frustrating tone that compounded the problem. Questions like what can we do? Who do we vote for 'then', or is the lesser evil or the best among them? The cost of living has risen in Nigeria, and most people are having a rough time. You don’t need to be an economist to know that Nigeria is broke, and because of our over-reliance on exports, dollars will continue to appreciate.

We have been managing a flawed system designed to look after a few influential people for too long. A system where billionaires are nothing more than thieves who rely on subsidies and forex. I am happy one of them (Tinubu) is bearing the brunt as the president. The longer we perpetuate these people in power, the longer it will take to start the difficult journey of rebuilding our nation. We have voted for a ‘lesser evil’ for too long, and evil is not out to roast everyone with hunger.

If you look at basic economic principles, Nigeria is very broke. Not much would change even if a suitable ‘Lagata’ came to power. The manipulation of forex by the CBN workers, commercial bank CEOs, and their private sector billionaires who are friends in crime has destroyed the country. Before blaming Tinubu or thinking that there is a shortcut, the economic realities in today’s Nigeria are better known.

• The subsidy is back at a rate higher than before because the naira is depreciating (possibly N500-700/litre).
• Unemployment is very high, 4-5% (these are people that are not employed but actively searching and are available for work)
• Youth unemployment is 7.2% in 2023
• Inflation was 29% a few days ago
• There is now an absence of new Eurobond issuances
• Significant repayments of existing funds and Eurobonds totalling $3.5 billion
· There are other continued portfolio outflows
· The international reserves declined by $5.01 billion on a year-on-year basis. $38.25 billion was reported at the end of September 2022 and $33.28 billion as of September 2023.
· IMF forecasts $8bn fall in Nigeria’s 2024 foreign reserves (from $33.12bn to $24bn in 2024)
• If you look at the balance of trade figures, our reserve will last a few months.

Some people will argue that the country is progressing, which may be correct for those close to power. Most Nigerians today are suffering, and that fact is irrefutable. The primary human needs to survive are simple/basic: food, water, air, and shelter. Food is our number one problem when you look at our basic needs. There is what we call food culture, which is the practices around producing, procuring, and intaking food. Everywhere I have been in the world, people eat what they produce (local diet). A local diet comprises food grown as close as possible to a consumer's locality. Edible oil, for instance, can be made from 7 edible oilseeds (groundnut, rapeseed & mustard, soybean, sunflower, sesame, safflower and niger).

Whatever is grown in your part of the world is what you use. We don’t have the excuse of going hungry in a tropical climate. Almost all of what I ate in Thailand was made from rice. The Finns are proud of their potatoes. Finnish potatoes are best suited for cooked applications such as roasting, boiling, baking (including potato bread), and smashing.

People citing lack of security as a reason for not farming need to learn the criticality of the problem. With the security problems, businesspeople are still travelling because it is vital to survival. Some are even still travelling at night. To feed ourselves, our priority is returning to the farm and eating what we produce. That will significantly reduce pressure on dollars and provide a lifeline for poor people like us. Many things constrain the government, which is why it is actionless. The people asking Tinubu to import food must learn the facts and figures.

The hardship has its positive side; most people in power now realise that the bubble has finally burst, and something tangible must be done to address the problems. Some are floating the idea of a parliamentary system, which is okay. In the presidential system, there is a high cost of governance, and it also provides a conduit for the governors to only be responsible for wasting public funds.

15/02/2024

The sad reality …

I would agree if you called Tinubu a liar but not a miracle worker, as most expect him to be. It is not abnormal for politicians to lie to win elections. The onus is on the people (majority) to avoid being deceived. We made this point during the campaign that your so-called three leading candidates are a disaster in waiting and that the fundamentals must change before Nigeria can move forward. I honestly don’t know why Nigerians are complaining of hardship because this is not something that cannot be easily read when Buhari was in power. Buhari used all the available options to manage the country. Even if Tinubu wants to alleviate the suffering, there are no more fiscal and monetary instruments he can use.

For instance, prices will rise further if the government decides to print too much money. Although people always face trade-offs, giving up something in return for getting something else. The society faces a short-run trade-off between inflation and unemployment. This is because inflation and unemployment have historically maintained an inverse relationship in the short term. But in the long run, there can be no trade-off between inflation and unemployment. That is the point we are now in Nigeria; there is no more relationship between inflation and unemployment. To understand it further, the two factors that can influence the inflation rate in the long run are the rate of money growth and the rate of economic growth. Both have been in decline since Jonathan's government. The basic economic principle is that a country's standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services. You know where our country stands on that since the 90s.

These are just the fundamentals before we bring God, prayers and miracles into the equation. You know my preference in the last election was NOT ‘Batified’. I wanted a new candidate that would herald a new beginning. But people like me are in the minority, which is, sadly, what democracy is all about. However. that should not stop us from telling the truth about the criticality of the situation. Those crying today voted for the government that promised to continue Buhari's legacy. Do they think Tinubu is a magician, or are they just easily deceived? The present situation is analogous to a financially strapped father who cannot feed his hungry children. The limitations on any leader's ability to effect immediate change are stark in present Nigeria. However, avenues for progress do exist, particularly in the realm of agriculture.

The solution is to invest in farming not through the CBN but through LGAs. The reason why Buhari’s agriculture policy failed was because it was through the CBN and banks. A well-designed policy, including the LGAs and the communities/cooperatives, will have better results. Most of us must go back to till the land.

05/02/2024

Tinubu dilemma

The dire state of affairs in the country has reached a critical juncture, with citizens enduring unprecedented levels of hardship. Both past administrations, led by Jonathan and Buhari, have seemingly exhausted all viable options to alleviate the populace's suffering. However, instead of offering solutions, their governance has exacerbated the already dire situation. Over the years, successive administrations have resorted to superficial measures to mask their incompetence, deceiving the populace into believing that progress was being made. Before President Buhari's departure, debt servicing consumed a staggering 80% of the country's revenue, a figure likely to have worsened since then. With soft landing options exhausted, only tough decisions remain.

During the tenure of President Buhari, tough decisions were notably absent, with the government resorting to obtaining loans to mitigate the effects of economic hardship and subsidy removal. Regrettably, many of these borrowed funds were squandered on poorly executed infrastructure projects, further deepening the country's financial woes. Since July 2023, the fuel cost has skyrocketed to an exorbitant N620 per litre, placing an unbearable burden on the shoulders of ordinary Nigerians. Understandably, the subsidy regime is still on when factoring in the exchange rate.

In fairness to Bola Tinubu, the current crisis is not solely of his making but rather a culmination of years of systemic failures and neglect. However, his affiliation with the APC cannot be overlooked. Tinubu actively campaigned for and supported Buhari's presidency for two terms, perpetuating ineffective governance and economic mismanagement. Bola Tinubu finds himself at a crossroads, grappling with the consequences of years of mismanagement and policy failures. We need to have the hope that the reforms will work in about two years. There are no more soft options left, which is the reality of the situation.

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