03/02/2020
Wajir county Gubernatorial Race 2022 shape-up analysis episode 3.
1: THE SOUTHNERS FALSE HOPE SYNDROME.
As it's now,the southerners much hyped up hope looks unrealistic, immeasurable, unachievable and completely unattainable.
These hopes is under constant threat from internal political push and pull division. Historically the two largest southerners sub-tribes namely mohamed-zubeir (MZ) and Muqabul (MB) scramble for wajir South member of parliment seat.
The divisive politics of the two said sect, established south as mother of Democratization in Wajir county politics,in South every member of parliment only serve five year term,thus making south elections competitive in every five year.
The political supremacy war between the two sub-tribes make completely impossible for southerners to have a common ground in matters of gubernatorial position.
Wajir politics is based on alliance,Any of the two sub-tribes will have to look for alliance outside south,so as to survive politically if south seat goes against they luck.in south it's called balancing the Political equation.
Political pundits news.com claims this irreconcilable Political division can only be cured if south gets an extra parliamentary seat,unless that happens, Southerners hope for the top county seat is dead on arrival.
2: SOUTH CLOSE ENDED ALLIANCE FORMULAE.
The southerners biased belief of excluding the DODs from its political alliance lineup will always cost them alot. Unlike Garissa and Mandera, only a well balanced political pact will work in Wajir. For south to achieve it's dream,it must get a Dagodia Deputy Governor from Either East,Eldas,west or Tarbaj in the formation of it's alliance.
In 2017 south locked out Dagodia from their alliance and the result was so shocking position three(3) out of four(4).
3: CHOICE OF ALLIANCE AND CANDIDATE.
South must open its heart and mind for all interms of making alliance,It's must eliminate the fear of unknown and openly engage all other five Constituencies.
Also south must get right,Their choice candidate for the job,a candidate who can be universally accepted by all as they try to sell his agenda in BBI mashinani rallies.
If they will front Catoo again in 2022,This is destined to fail,you can take this to the nearest sacco account. A candidate must be known to all.enjoying only home ground advantage is never enough,the most important for south is either away games draw or win.Candidates like Former senator Abdirahman olow or Affey can boost the south hope if fronted for the top seat.
Theoretically proven in the last general election south will fail to meet this important combination thus weakening its chances to be relevant in the race for the top county seat.
4:NORTH AS FRIENDS OF SOUTH.
NORTH will most likely support a united south,as long as south will be divided political,North will take a cautionary view to avoid boarding a sinking political alliance.
North is the most friendly zone for south to capitalize on,But the night mere is charity beings at home. You can't seek support when you're not discplined,mobilized and organized,which political analysts term as the current curse of southners.
5: THE POSSIBILITY OF EAST SUPPORTING SOUTH.
East is the most diverse and cosmopolitant Constituency in wajir.a very serious south will get a massive Support from East.
All Corner tribes will undoubtedly support south,G7 will support south inorder to register their dissatisfaction and displeasure with the big four Dagodia families,which they perceive marganilize them politically and economically. show us a sign.
The masare community in totality will support south unconditionally based on political difference with it's noisy neighbours.,They are willing to support south since there is no direct conflict of interest between them and South.
6: ELDAS AND TARBAJ MIGHT BE A NO GO ZONE FOR SOUTH.
The possibility of both Tarbaj and Eldas supporting south is almost zero.both firmly believe south can only maintain its status-quo.seeking the Governorship position is being over ambitious.
Both region believe deputy governor position fits best south since the Ogaden Nation has a Governor in Garissa county.
7:SOUTHNERS AND WESTERNERS PARTNERSHIP.
Westerners can support southners, if given the position of "the second in command" and their possible to get support from Eldas,Tarbaj,East and North for Governorship position hits the rock.
South and West are currently enjoying political civility among themselves,wajir county Revolutionary Movement press reports shows there has been several Political meetings between south and west in alliance formation though nothing tangible came out of the discussions.
Wajir county Political analysts see West as the new alliance block of south,As they seek for a Political divorce with other Political unfriendly regions.
Given the above facts southerners hope in 2022 is less than 15% of winning the Gubernatorial seat in Wajir county.
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The author is a political analyst and Leader-WCRM
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