First Warn NJ is your go-to source for the most accurate weather forecasts and analysis for the New
The cold weather takes a break with spring-like warmth arriving Thursday, followed by a chance of thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday morning.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-brief-warm-spell-followed-by-windy-conditions%2C-thunderstorm--p405-177.htm
The strong cold front is modeled to move through around daybreak or the morning commute Friday.
Tomorrow will be the last very cold day for at least the next week, with temperatures exceeding 60 degrees by Thursday.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-forecast-arctic-air-to-lose-grip-with-60s-by-thursday-and-thundersto-p404-177.htm
The arctic airmass will try to hold its grip, but temperatures should begin to moderate.
Snow ends tonight, with arctic air holding tight for Monday. However, by mid-week temperatures moderate, and then it turns spring-like by Thursday with a chance of thunderstorms at night into Friday.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-arctic-airmass-followed-by-taste-of-spring%2C-chance-of-thunde-p403-177.htm
The thaw begins Wednesday.
Sunday's setup for snow in NJ is tricky with marginal temperatures in some areas, a narrow, heavier band of snow, a developing offshore low and the potential for a bit of an inverted trough. Some areas could underperform, while others overperform.
Here's the Details:
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-spring-to-winter-with-wintry-weather-sunday-p402-177.htm
There are opportunities with this event can overperform and underperform.
Precipitation gives way to milder days ahead with the next cold shot late in the upcoming weekend.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-turning-milder-for-rest-of-the-week-with-strong-cold-front-p-p401-177.htm
Three days of the next seven could make a run at 50 degrees, and might even exceed it.
A light, but hazardous glaze of ice could form on roads and sidewalks early Monday from freezing drizzle/light freezing rain, and it just takes a trace of ice for there to be a loss of traction.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-freezing-drizzle%2C-light-freezing-rain-to-create-slippery-con-p400-177.htm
All of this is in response to a weak surface trough and developing offshore low.
A shortwave piece of energy swings through Monday, all as a weak low develops offshore, with the potential that some precipitation will spread inland, with models in disagreement on timing, intensity and precipitation types.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-shortwave%2C-weak-low-could-result-in-light-precipitation-mond-p399-177.htm
Temperatures will be borderline for wintry precipitation with the arctic air retreating.
Arctic air will be entrenched across the entire state Saturday with highs struggling to make it to the freezing mark. A weak coastal low could throw some precipitation our way later Monday into Tuesday.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-arctic-air-settles-in-briefly%2C-coastal-low-late-monday-could-p398-177.htm
Arctic air will be entrenched across the entire state Saturday with highs struggling to make it to the freezing mark.
Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and Bergen counties at highest risk for an ice storm Friday. The next tier of counties south of there might have a glaze of ice occur.
For the rest of the state, the most noticeable impact might be how mild it is in the morning, and how chilly it becomes by late afternoon with temperatures falling through the 40s and 30s when it would normally be the warmest part of the day.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-mild-to-icy-on-friday%2C-arctic-cold-to-start-weekend-p397-177.htm
Sussex, Warren, Morris, Passaic and Bergen counties most at risk for icing on Friday.
Dense fog on Thursday as milder air moves in, followed by crashing temperatures from northwest to southeast on Friday, with the chance for icing as the transition occurs.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-thaw-to-freeze-on-friday%2c-chance-of-ice-storm-in-northern-ha-p396-177.htm
An arctic front will begin moving southward, possibly as early as 4 or 5 a.m. on Friday.
For Friday, the quicker the arctic air comes in, all as the low riding the front approaches, the more prolonged the wintry mix.
If the low approaches and the front has yet to still pass through the northwest part of the state, the day looks wetter than icier.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-temperatures-rise%2c-then-fall-with-icy-conditions-possible-la-p395-177.htm
The bottom-line is this is a challenging forecast. But it bears watching, especially given how the GFS output has significant ice amounts.
A potentially tricky setup will unfold late week with a storm as an arctic cold front begins moving southeast through our area.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-midweek-thaw-all-followed-by-another-storm-and-arctic-bl-p394-177.htm
A potentially tricky setup will unfold late week with a storm as an arctic cold front begins moving southeast through our area.
Clear skies, calm winds, fresh high-pressure area and a snowpack all point towards less sheltered locations dropping into the single digits, if not below zero for a time early in the morning, prior to daybreak, making it the coldest night thus far of the season.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-coldest-night-thus-far-this-season%2C-patchy-freezing-fog%2C-mel-p393-177.htm
As warm air begins advects over the snowpack, some patchy fog could again develop, and lead to icy spots.
Following our blizzard, two very frigid nights are ahead of us, followed by a mid-week thaw and then another cold blast.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-frigid-with-drifting-snow%2C-mid-week-thaw%2C-followed-by-anothe-p392-177.htm
An Arctic airmass and fresh snowpack will result in high temperatures struggling to reach 20, let alone the mid 20s on Sunday.
Simply put, expect a blizzard to unfold along the coast tonight into Saturday, with impossible travel in coastal communities likely from intense snowfall, combined with gusty winds and drifts.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-snowstorm-arrives-with-blizzard-along-coast-p391-177.htm
A major winter storm will unfold along the coastal areas of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, with a blizzard along the immediate coast from Maine to Virginia.
A major snowstorm is likely in coastal sections of New Jersey, with near-blizzard or blizzard conditions along the coast. Travel could be significantly disrupted, if not impossible, for a time along the Garden State Parkway.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-models-converging-on-major-snowstorm%2C-especially-for-coastal-p390-177.htm
A coastal storm is expected to become a beast of a low as it rapidly deepens and undergoes bombogenesis from late Friday into Saturday.
Snow is likely Friday night into Saturday. The big question that remains is how much.
Today’s computer modeling unfortunately did not provide as much clarity as is optimum less than 60 hours away from a potential winter storm.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-just-how-impactful-our-weekend-storm-will-be-remains-in-doub-p389-177.htm
The big question that remains is how much snow will fall.
It will likely snow Friday evening into Saturday, but models diverge on the severity of the potential snowstorm, though there is an infrequent *chance* for a major snowfall if all the puzzle pieces fall into place just right.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-arctic-air-arriving%2C-models-diverge-on-whether-weekend-snows-p388-177.htm
Much better sampling of the system will begin to occur on Wednesday.
The prospects of snow have increased markedly for Friday p.m. into Saturday.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-arctic-air-incoming%2C-snowstorm-possible-friday-p-m-into-sat-p387-177.htm
The prospects of snow have increased markedly for Friday night into Saturday.
Another arctic blast arrives mid-week. A storm offshore next weekend will continue to be monitored, with computer modeling on Sunday showing everything from a snowstorm to a storm that just misses New Jersey.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-more-chilly-air-this-week%2C-storm-offshore-for-next-weekend-p386-177.htm
The models have been remarkably consistent in signaling the development of a strong storm over the coastal waters next weekend.
There are a couple opportunities for scattered snow showers and snow squalls early in the week, followed by another arctic blast.
Next weekend there is a chance for a larger storm system.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-small-chances-for-snow-showers%2C-larger-storm-signal-for-next-p385-177.htm
It appears any rounds of snow Sunday through Tuesday would be very light, and dust or coat the ground at best.
For the first half of the morning, some light snow or flurries could graze southeastern New Jersey, particularly Cape May County.
Otherwise, as of right now, a few chances for snow showers in your 7-Day outlook with perhaps a slightly larger system mid-week.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-a-few-chances-for-snow-showers-with-continued-cold-shots-p384-177.htm
With shots of cold air, and a pattern with pieces of energy coming at us every few days, the potential for a larger storm remains on the table.
Our wild night of weather has come to an end and now we look forward to what appear to be several additional chances for wintry precipitation and snow.
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-several-chances-for-wintry-precipitation-p382-177.htm
Sunshine returns Tuesday, though so will the colder air.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for parts of Ocean and Monmouth Counties 2:30 a.m.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Ocean County until 2 a.m.
Winds are howling across central and southern parts of New Jersey. The last bit of snow falling is in Sussex County, all other areas have switched to rain (with a wintry mix in the NW counties besides Sussex).
https://firstwarnnj.com/storm-update-high-winds-occurring-across-the-southern-half-of-state-p381-177.htm
Across central and southern portions of New Jersey, high winds are in progress.
Watch the untreated surfaces, even where temperatures are above freezing. It can be icy!
https://firstwarnnj.com/storm-update-icy-conditions-on-untreated-surfaces-p380-177.htm
Wet snow has come to an end in all counties south of Interstate 195 as of 8:40 p.m. with rain, heavy at times, taking over.
Coastal front displayed well at this hour.
https://firstwarnnj.com/storm-update-major-storm%27s-precipitation-shield-arrives-p379-177.htm
Doppler Radar and surface observations are showing the coastal front pretty well.
Wintry mix this evening changes to heavy rain in most of the state this evening. High winds occur late tonight. Colder air filters back in on Monday, with remaining showers changing to sleet and snow showers.
Watching potential for a winter storm next weekend as well.
Busy first day to launch First Warn NJ with a major storm on the way for Sunday into Monday ... a low forming to our west and moving into Central PA and Poconos ... followed by an arctic blast and more storminess potentially in the 7 to 15-day range….
https://firstwarnnj.com/7-day-outlook-rare-ocean-effect-snow-shwrs-,-major-storm-on-the-way-for-la-p377-177.htm
An arctic blast arrives by late week.
08088
Be the first to know and let us send you an email when First Warn NJ Weather posts news and promotions. Your email address will not be used for any other purpose, and you can unsubscribe at any time.
Want your business to be the top-listed Media Company?
