Puget Sound Indexer (2024)

03/02/2022

The Puget Sound Indexer was active from April 2020 to April 2021. Although it is not being updated regularly, there is still quite a bit of good content about the Puget Sound region that you may find useful. The editor may emerge from his other activities to pick up where he left off.

https://www.psindexer.com/indexer-taking-a-nap/

The Puget Sound Indexer was active from April 2020 to April 2021. Although it is not being updated regularly, there is still quite a bit of good content about the Puget Sound region that you may fi…

21/04/2021

President Biden wants to get local governments to unlock their strict zoning laws. Minneapolis scraps strict single family zoning. The California Assembly repeatedly tries to force local governments to allow transit oriented development. All good things to relieve the underbuilding of housing in the country, but all are aimed just one part of the housing market: apartments and condominiums. The problem is, most Americans don’t live in multi-family housing, most don’t want to, and the supply of single family houses is not keeping up with demand in large parts of the country....

https://www.psindexer.com/housing-its-more-than-apartments/

Most Americans don’t live in multi-family housing and the supply of single family houses is not keeping up with demand. Yet housing policy solutions always seem to steer back to multi-family.

07/04/2021

Sales taxes are tricky, but the way the system of collecting them has evolved raises some serious questions of fairness for most cities in the region. Out of the 9 or 10 percent tax added to purchases in most of the Puget Sound area, one cent is collected for local use. Of that, half a cent is mandatory for cities to impose....

https://www.psindexer.com/you-bought-a-car-who-gets-the-sales-tax/

Dealers in Fife recorded over a half a billion dollars in vehicle sales in 2019, and the city collected over $1,000 per household in taxes on those sales. In contrast, the adjacent city of Edgewood…

07/04/2021

The service sector may still be trying to dig out of the hole, but the goods producing part of the economy seems to have made nearly a full recovery after the crash of 2020. Construction in February was up 5 percent over February 2020, and manufacturing has mostly climbed back to recent historic levels. One of the central threads of the pandemic economy narrative has been the partial shift in spending from services to goods: we can’t fly in airplanes so let’s buy a boat....

https://www.psindexer.com/manufacturing-rebounds-in-a-hurry/

In January and February of this year, manufacturing indices were just about where they were in early 2020, when adjusted for inflation.

31/03/2021

The state GDP numbers are in for 2020. While not a single state had real, inflation-adjusted GDP growth, Washington experienced the second smallest GDP decline. And in nominal terms, without adjusting for inflation, the state’s economy actually grew slightly. Only the Beehive State did better. It was a roller coaster ride. From the prior year, adjusted for inflation, the state grew 2.1 percent in the first quarter, dropped by 6.6 percent in the second quarter, and then grew by 1.6 percent in the third and 1 percent in the fourth quarter....

https://www.psindexer.com/2020-state-gdp-were-number-two/

While not a single state had real GDP growth in 2020, Washington experienced the second smallest decline. And in nominal terms, without adjusting for inflation, the state’s economy actually grew sl…

31/03/2021

It has been a tough year for apartment owners. Rents have fallen in most markets in the Seattle area, and eviction moratoria have created confusion and mixed messages and expectations. Getting back to stability will take a while. Meanwhile, rents remain high in the area for many households. Even with recent drops, too many households will pay too much of their income for monthly rent....

https://www.psindexer.com/the-high-price-of-low-rent/

We are starting to see an equalization of rents across the region, with rents falling in expensive areas and rising in less expensive areas. This equalization will be brutal for the lowest income r…

24/03/2021

One of the unexpected outcomes of the economic turmoil of the past year has been the rapid growth in housing construction, especially single family homes. The year began with the continued drive of Millennials into prime family-formation age brackets, providing early tailwinds to the industry. A pandemic-driven push out of central cities, however temporary it may prove to be, added momentum and the homebuilding industry responded....

https://www.psindexer.com/housing-booming-all-over-but-not-in-washington/

All of the subregions of the country, including the slow-growing Northeast, saw an increase in single family permits in 2020 over 2019. But, somehow Washington State missed the memo.

24/03/2021

In the quest to wean the nation off of fossil fuels, one imperative will remain non-negotiable: people want to stay warm in the winters that will persist, even with global warming. Central heat is one of civilization’s greatest achievements, and Americans are not going to give it up. Nearly all residential heating is based on carbon-emitting fuels, and we will be seeing a transformation toward non-carbon-emitting heating sources....

https://www.psindexer.com/how-america-stays-warm/

In the quest to wean the nation off of fossil fuels, one imperative will remain non-negotiable: people want to stay warm in the winter. Central heat is one of civilization’s greatest achievements, …

17/03/2021

Irresistible click-bait hit screens across Washington last week, as US News and World Report declared that Washington is the Best State in America. And, woe to Louisiana, the Worst State in America. This is all baloney. You know that, but let’s again talk about why. We’ll go back the Indexer’s favorite economic concept—spatial equilibrium—which states that all places offer the same total value proposition in the long run....

https://www.psindexer.com/sorry-but-were-not-number-one/

Irresistible click-bait hit screens across Washington last week, as US News and World Report declared that Washington is the Best State in America. And, woe to Louisiana, the Worst State in America…

17/03/2021

The pandemic relief bill recently signed by the President contains about $350 billion for state and local governments to make up for tax revenue that was lost due to the economic shutdown of the past year. This money is being allocated by a fairly strict formula based on population, and is not targeted at the areas most impacted (e.g. places with large tourist industries that have been shut down)....

https://www.psindexer.com/sales-taxes-who-got-hammered-in-2020-and-who-didnt/

Countywide (including unincorporated areas) sales tax collections were down about 9 percent for the year. But quite a number of cities had either very small losses or actual gains. The biggest lose…

10/03/2021

The Superstar Cities—the Gated Cities of the Coast—are in full-throated panic over signs that the jig is up: they cannot keep luring high priced talent to work in tech firms and live in high priced real estate. Are all those prized techies charging out of town? The signs are worrying for those that understand the consequences of a shrinking city and shrinking local incomes....

https://www.psindexer.com/seattle-stampede/

The Superstar Cities—the Gated Cities of the Coast—are in full-throated panic over signs that the jig is up: they cannot keep luring high priced talent to work in tech firms and live in high priced…

10/03/2021

There is probably no more debated topic within economists’ circles these days than the impact of minimum wages. And with the recent run at a $15 minimum wage as part of the pandemic relief bill, the topic is again front and center. Traditional theory says that any time the price of something increases (low skill labor) the demand for that thing will fall (fewer jobs and hours)....

https://www.psindexer.com/impact-of-15-minimum-wage-depends-where-you-are/

Economists have performed a huge number of studies on the minimum wage and the results are all over the place. Some results show a drop in labor demand and others show little change. Seattle, with …

03/03/2021

Congress threw a stimulus party and nobody came. In January, the great majority of Americans received checks of $600, intended to help jump start an economy, the recovery of which, had stalled. After peppy growth in the summer and early fall, employment and GDP flattened out, about 5 percent short of pre-pandemic levels. Something needed to be done, and Congress put together a relief program that sent about $160 billion out to households....

https://www.psindexer.com/yep-we-saved-it-all/

Congress threw a stimulus party an nobody came: we didn’t spend the money. In the same month that Congress showered us with $138.4 billion, in the form of $600 checks, personal savings increa…

03/03/2021

The City of Seattle has renewed its commitments to Vision Zero, a program to eliminate traffic-related fatalities in the city. But the city has been frustrated by the persistence of serious traffic incidents and the lack of progress in reducing them. In spite of a series of infrastructure investments, speed limit reductions, enforcement actions and communications efforts, traffic injuries and fatalities remain at consistent levels....

https://www.psindexer.com/pedestrian-safety-and-the-nirvana-fallacy/

Looked at this way, we might see our traffic system not as a failure, but as a remarkable success. Cars and pedestrians share spaces millions of times each day and billions of times each year, with…

24/02/2021

The most powerful tool in the arsenal of organized labor has always been work stoppage, or strikes. By idling expensive capital, slowing cash flow, inconveniencing customers and suppliers and slowing spending in their communities, unions can certainly get the attention of management when they feel they are not getting a fair shake in negotiations. But this tool has declined precipitously in American life....

https://www.psindexer.com/strike-out-the-decline-of-work-stoppage/

The most powerful tool in the arsenal of organized labor has always been work stoppage, or strikes. But this tool has declined precipitously in American life.

24/02/2021

2020 has been a tough year for transit agencies. Fewer workers are commuting to jobs in the sorts of dense employment centers that favor transit, and others are reluctant to board a bus or train with strangers. As the year closed out, there were no real bright spots for the agencies in the Puget Sound region in terms of ridership. The Federal Transit Administration’s National Transit Database shows that agencies finished the year with little recovery from the initial lockdowns and mostly flat ridership over the past six months....

https://www.psindexer.com/transit-at-year-end-flat-but-not-broke/

2020 has been a tough year for transit agencies. Fewer workers are commuting to jobs in the sorts of dense employment centers that favor transit, and others are reluctant to board a bus or train wi…

17/02/2021

The recent election played out against a backdrop of shifting voting patterns in suburbs. Or at least that is the way pundits characterized it. But what exactly is a suburb? The definition is less clear than we might think. The easiest way to think about suburbs is as the parts of a metropolitan area that lie outside the boundaries of the central city....

https://www.psindexer.com/what-do-we-mean-when-we-talk-about-suburbs/

The recent election played out against a backdrop of shifting voting patterns in suburbs. Or at least that is the way pundits characterized it. But what exactly is a suburb? The definition is less …

17/02/2021

Following an Indexer story on the movement of Californians to Idaho, the Washington Post ran a story about Boise, with the head “The Californians Are Coming. So Is Their Housing Crisis.” The subhead asked the question: “Is it possible to import growth without also importing housing problems?” Lauren McLean, mayor of Boise, responded “I can’t point to a city that has done it right.”...

https://www.psindexer.com/is-boise-doomed/

Once the world discovers a place like Boise, it is hard to turn back. A critical mass of new, higher incomes tends to foster new amenities like restaurants and cultural institutions. This is a virt…

03/02/2021

We are approaching a year of empty offices. The work-from-home model that was so necessary during the pandemic has some inherent stickiness, with big implications for commercial real estate. Building owners and agents are anxiously watching trends to see just how much less space employers will need in the long term. In most of the country, trends are not exactly moving in the right direction....

https://www.psindexer.com/office-space-empty-floors-and-more-on-the-way/

The world of office work is clearly not going back to pre-pandemic patterns. It is also clear that many workers are anxious to return to people-centered environments. So the question is, how much s…

03/02/2021

(Note: The Indexer generally tries to avoid strong view on policy, letting data speak for itself. In the case of the proposed pandemic relief package, the data are so at odds with policy that we feel compelled to be a bit more opinionated.) Maybe the most overused cliche in the political world: the generals are fighting the last war. But this time it really is true....

https://www.psindexer.com/fighting-the-last-war-again/

Maybe the most overused cliche in the political world: the generals are fighting the last war. But this time it really is true. The most prominent rationale for the new pandemic relief package is a…

27/01/2021

The share of the workforce belonging to and being represented by labor unions has declined significantly in the past couple of generations. In the early 1980s, between 20 and 25 percent of workers were represented by unions (not all of whom actually joined the union representing them) and this dropped below 12 percent in 2019. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has just released its latest detailed data on unionization....

https://www.psindexer.com/union-representation-slowing-decline-but-few-signs-of-recovery/

Unionization clearly has benefits for many individuals who work for unionized employers, in terms of higher wages. But for the economy as a whole, it is difficult to see where unions are making a b…

27/01/2021

We now have a full year of data on basic national retailing trends for 2020. Bottom line: Total retail sales were down about 2 percent from what we might have expected in the absence of the pandemic. Retail sales for the year were slightly higher than for 2019, but we would have expected sales to grow by about 3.5 percent from year to year, accounting for inflation and growth in population and productivity....

https://www.psindexer.com/retail-in-2020-the-big-shift/

Total retail sales in 2020 were down about 2 percent from what we might have expected in the absence of the pandemic. Within the overall retailing category, however, there were major shifts.

20/01/2021

The Healthy Washington — Roadmap to Recovery plan that will guide reopening of many sectors of the economy is based, in part, on a pattern of reduction in the number of cases of Covid-19 reported to the Washington State Department of Health. Two weeks into the program, none of the regions have met the opening criteria. The past couple of months have not been encouraging, with Covid cases spiking across the region and state....

https://www.psindexer.com/covid-recovering-from-the-holidays/

The downward trend in the summer began to reverse itself as people went back indoors, and health authorities feared the impact of holiday travel and gatherings later in the fall.

20/01/2021

The hospitality industry has taken a huge hit during the pandemic. The second quarter of 2020, the most recent quarter for which we have data, shows hotel and motel spending in the state down 81 percent from the second quarter of 2019. Employment in the sector in May was down 48 percent year over year, and remains down nearly 40 percent....

https://www.psindexer.com/airbnbs-running-out-of-oxygen/

The hospitality industry has taken a huge hit during the pandemic. How about the short-term rentals like Airbnb and VRBO? They might be considered a less risky alternative to large hotels, and lowe…

13/01/2021

Apartment rents have continued their freefall across most of the Seattle area. Seattle and the suburbs to the east and north have continued to see median rents drop, while suburbs to the south have more mixed results. Rents in some markets around the Puget Sound area, farther from King and Snohomish counties, have seen strong increases in median rents. Figure 1 shows rents in December 2019 and December 2020, and the year-over-year change....

https://www.psindexer.com/apartment-rents-continue-to-fall/

Apartment rents have continued their freefall across most of the Seattle area. But even with high vacancies, a lot of apartments are in the pipeline. In 2019, over 14,000 new apartments were permit…

13/01/2021

Just as overall population growth is unevenly distributed around the region, so is growth in school enrollments. And the two are not as closely related as you might think. For every 100 new residents of the three county region in the past five years, about ten new students enrolled in public schools. Nationally, there are about 15 public school students for every 100 Americans, so the Puget Sound region is pretty short on students among newcomers....

https://www.psindexer.com/school-enrollments-where-the-kids-are/

Just as overall population growth is unevenly distributed around the region, so is growth in school enrollments. And the two are not as closely related as you might think.

06/01/2021

Next time you are in Boise, listen carefully. That stampeding sound you hear is not cattle on the range, but Californians pouring into the Gem State. No state has grown faster than Idaho in the past five years. The Mountain West, overall, has had strong growth since 2015, with Nevada, Utah and Arizona right behind Idaho in the growth rankings....

https://www.psindexer.com/north-to-idaho-from-golden-to-gem/

No state has grown faster than Idaho in the past five years. The primary source of growth: a big one-way pipeline from California to Idaho.

06/01/2021

2021 is the year when everything goes back to normal, right? So, how close have we gotten? It turns out that in the aggregate, we are not too far off from normal, and ahead of normal in a few areas. Let’s have a look at a few metrics that give us end-of-November data. Figure 1 shows several measures of overall employment and earnings....

https://www.psindexer.com/creeping-up-on-normal/

2021 is the year when everything goes back to normal, right? So, how close have we gotten? It turns out that in the aggregate, we are not too far off from normal.

16/12/2020

The San Francisco Bay area has been hit by the Pandemic and now faces the newly aggressive stance of Congress and regulators toward its signature technology firms. A region that had been flying high for decades suddenly seems to have hit a slump. Is it contagious? Is Seattle’s social distance of 700 miles enough? Last week we looked at three metrics…...

https://www.psindexer.com/grateful-dread-our-san-francisco-connection-part-ii/

A region that had been flying high for decades suddenly seems to have hit a slump. Is it contagious? Is Seattle’s social distance of 700 miles enough?

16/12/2020

When even a trip to the grocery store is fraught with risk and guilt, moving across the country is really a stretch. And with so much uncertainty about jobs and, in particular, job locations, settling into a new community has been quite an undertaking this year. Real-time data on geographic mobility is not especially good: we get some anecdotal evidence from moving and truck rental companies, and we can see apartment vacancies rise and fall....

https://www.psindexer.com/on-the-move-again/

Statewide, driver’s license trade ins were down 38 percent from last year. By later in the year, though, migration activity was picking up.

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