13/02/2020
"Coronavirus: Should I Be Worried?"
The media makes a lot of its living scaring you. Clickbait and sensationalist headlines are all the rage. The problem with this is, it can cause us not to pay a great deal of attention to anything. Sometimes it’s hard to tell if news is a big deal or not. Well, here is a quick primer on Coronavirus and my two scents on whether you should be worried about it or not. Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist or a doctor.
First...what is it?
Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that can cause anything from colds to serious respiratory issues. One of the most famous viruses in this family was SARS. The newest strain of Coronavirus is spreading around Asia, currently, and the worry is that it will spread worldwide.
Other Facts About It
At the time of this writing, around 30,000 people have been infected. Just under 600 have died. This means the disease kills around 2% of people it infects. Also, 90%+ of the infections are in Asia. These cases started being reported on the last day of last year so we’re roughly 5 weeks into the scare.
Should I be worried?
I think that to figure that out you have to look at a few facts. The worst case scenario is awful. At a 2% kill rate and over 7 billion humans on planet earth, if it did spread everywhere, 140-150 million people would die. Of course, there have been many other outbreaks and none recently to reach those proportions. The worst diseases of all time have but even in that worst case scenario, you are unlikely to die from Coronavirus.
Then the next question is, how likely are we to get to that point? I certainly hope we’re nowhere near that point but the numbers are not currently promising. It would be one thing if the number was growing steadily. Iinstead, it’s growing faster and faster and faster. When I started looking at this 2 weeks ago, we were at about 4,000 cases, adding a few hundred each day. Then we went from 15-17,000 in one day (increase of 2 thousand), then 17-20 (increase of 3), then 20-24 (+4) , then 24-29 (+5) and before those increase by the thousands, the same thing happened with the hundreds. If that pattern continues (I’ll run it out a few series for you to see)....29+6 =35, 35+7 =42, 42+8=50, 50+9=59, 59+10=69, 69+11=80, 80+12= 92 thousand. That’s just one week. If we start to see that type of trend next week and if that continues into the next 2-3 weeks, then maybe you can start to worry….but until then, enjoy Valentine’s Day and try not to think about it.
To see more post like this, subscribe here https://umistit.ck.page/8d5f6babdc
I can only keep up the content with new subscribers. Forward this!