27/01/2023
Do mass shootings cause more mass shootings? Research is divided.
Two recent mass shootings in California that killed dozens of people in public spaces, as well as a third attack days earlier that killed six family members in their home, have again raised questions about whether such violent incidents inspire new ones.
Data on mass public shootings going back to 1966 suggests such attacks are certainly becoming more frequent, said James Densley, co-founder of the Violence Project, a nonprofit research center.
But it’s not yet clear if shootings that come close together in time are intertwined.
"You find even in random simulations, there are times when there’s a cluster and times when there are not," said James Alan Fox, a criminology professor at Northeastern University who serves on USA TODAY’s Board of Contributors.
Are mass shootings happening more often?
The frequency of fatal mass shootings has increased from 23 per year in 2010 to 27 per year through the end of 2022, based on five-year averages of data gathered by USA TODAY, The Associated Press and Northeastern University.
That includes incidents where at least four people were fatally shot, excluding the shooter, and a variety of motives – from hate crimes to family violence and gang-related attacks.
The number of incidents categorized as being caused by hate, terrorism or indiscriminate violence, which tend to draw significant public attention, has increased from two per year to five. Similarly, attacks in public places like schools, hospitals and malls have increased from seven per year to 10 per year.
What are trends in gun violence generally?
Overall, the number of U.S. gun deaths soared to records levels during the COVID-19 pandemic, and fi****ms became the leading cause of death among children and teens.
There are shootings every day in the United States, and approximately 20,000 people have been fatally shot each year since 2020, according to the nonprofit Gun Violence Archive. About another 20,000 have died by firearm su***de, according to the nonprofit.
When have there been strings of high-profile mass shootings?
Densley, of the Violence Project, pointed to several examples of mass shootings that happened close together in recent years.
August 2019: A far-right gunman killed 23 people at a Walmart in El Paso, Texas. The next day, a gunman killed nine people in Dayton, Ohio. At the end of the month, a gunman killed seven people in Midland and Odessa, Texas.
March 2021: A gunman killed eight people at Atlanta-area spas. Days later, a gunman killed 10 people at a supermarket in Boulder, Colorado. Days after that, a gunman killed four people at an office in Orange County, California.
Summer 2022: In May, there were mass shootings at a supermarket in Buffalo, New York, and an elementary school in Uvalde, Texas. In June, it was a hospital in Tulsa, Oklahoma. In July, a Fourth of July parade in Highland Park, Illinois.
November 2022: A gunman opened fire at an LGBTQ nightclub in Colorado Springs, Colorado, killing five people. Two days later, a store manager killed six people at a Walmart in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Do mass shootings prompt more mass shootings?
Available studies have reached different conclusions on whether one mass shooting raises the likelihood that others will follow soon after.
Keep in mind, research on mass shootings is limited, due in part to a Congressional amendment that for more than two decades barred federal public health funding from being used to study gun violence.
In 2015, a team of researchers at Arizona State and Northeastern Illinois universities analyzed the USA TODAY/AP/Northeastern database for trends. They found the probability of a new fatal mass shooting increased for 13 days after each incident, an effect that held up when looking at school shootings, in particular.
Densley said the Violence Project has noticed an "anecdotal" increase in clusters of high-profile mass shootings but is working on an analysis to determine if the apparent clusters are statistically significant.
Fox, meanwhile, said the clustering some people see in lists of mass shootings is the result of pure chance. He said the 2015 study didn’t take into account important differences between shooting types and the level of attention they receive.
A 2021 study by Fox and others found no short-term "contagion" effect linked to newspaper and television coverage of mass shootings.
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