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1pm Sunday 7/3 Tropical Update: looking into the future there could be some spin in the Gulf or off the east coast that may try to spin something up in a week. This is the typical seasonal decaying frontal energy leftover off the US southeastern coastal areas that could spawn quick tropical spin ups like Colin did.
I hope everyone has a great 4th of July tomorrow.
11:20am Saturday 7/2: Tropical Storm Colin formed early this morning off the SC coastline and moved inland. Heavy rainfall is displaced to the east so it should occur onshore in Eastern North Carolina through Sunday. A Tropical Storm warning remains in effect for the NC Eastern coast.
9:12am Friday 7/1 11Z HRRR update: there's a lot of bands of storms off the GA and SC coast today and some of it will push towards the coast. Between now and 1am there will be the chance for upwards of 2 inches of rain, isolated 3-4 inches in the GA, SC and NC coastal areas.
9:10am Friday 7/1 10z and 11z HRRR Update: Latest guidance shows that between now and 1am an additional 1-3 inches of rain for the Texas southeast coastal areas and for Lake Charles and southward 2-4 inches, isolated 4-6 inches of rain. The modeling is jumping back and forth on where the heaviest rain will set up somewhere between Beaumont Texas to Lake Charles, Louisiana where upwards to 8+ inches of rain is possible. Remember with tropical downpours there's heavy rainfall and torrential rainfall where feeder bands tap into deep tropical moisture and increases rainfall hourly rates.
7:40am Friday 7/1 HRRR Update: Latest 10z HRRR shows that between now and midnight and additional 1-3 inches of rain for the Texas southeast coastal areas and for Lake Charles and southward 2-4 inches, isolated 4-6 inches of rain.
9pm Thursday 6/30 Tropical Update: Latest WPC rainfall totals shows a lot of heavy rain for southeast Texas and along the SC and Georgia coastal areas in the next 72 hours.
The NHC has dropped development odds on Invest 95L to 30% and the wave behind PTC 2 that's approaching the Leeward Islands Friday into Saturday a 10% chance due to unfavorable environmental conditions.
1:10pm Thursday 6/30 Tropical Update: Latest 12z HRRR shows some heavy rain for Texas East Coast.
The latest WPC rainfall totals for Thursday to Friday (Image 2) and Friday to Saturday (Image 3) shows upwards to 3 inches a day for some areas, but not it won't be a long duration where most of the rains will fall in a short period of time.
10pm Update Wednesday 6/29: Latest 00z HRRR model run shows over 6 inches of rain for many coastal areas in the next 48 hours.
9:30pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: 00z spaghetti plots are in and much hasn't changed as they remain tightly clustered. The center is likely to move onshore near Port O Connor, Texas or Port Lavaca, Texas.
8:30pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: 18z HRRR guidances shows some impressive rainfall totals over 8 inches in some coastal areas in the next 48 hours. The closer to the coast you are the heavier the rainfall rates will be and some will be over 2 inches an hour alone.
Image courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com
8pm NHC Tropical Update 6/29: The NHC is giving Invest 95L a 40% chance of development and has dropped development odds on the wave behind PTC 2 to 20% in the next five days.
New areas highlighted by the WPC for excessive rainfall rates in the next 3 days. First image is Thursday to Friday, second is Friday to Saturday.
The third image is a chart to understand risk levels for excessive rainfall whereas all images are courtesy of the WPC.
7pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: Latest 18z GFS rainfall totals are much in line with the 12z EURO for the Houston area to see on average 3-4 inches, isolated 4-8 inches of rain in the next 72 hours which will induce flash flooding then spreading east into the Western half of Louisiana where 3-6 inches isolated 6-8 inches are possible.
Rainfall totals are hard to pin down with model guidance but precipitable water rates are well over 2 inches thus will increase the threat for heavy to torrential Tropical downpours. The timing is early Thursday for southeast Texas then shifting inland to the Eastern coastal of areas of Texas Thursday evening into the day on Friday.
Looking ahead: The latest 18z GFS does try to develop the wave behind PTC 2 that the NHC is giving a 30% chance of development in the next five days. It's likely upper level features will steer it towards the Bahamas after the Leeward and Windward islands where it will merge with another wave closely to it before crossing the Leeward islands this weekend, then near or over Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. Some of that leftover spin and moisture could try to head anywhere from Cuba to the Gulf or through the Bahamas. Uncertainty remains but will keep you updated on it.
5pm Wednesday 6/29: Tropical Storm Bonnie expected to form by 2am Thursday 6/30. Latest watches and warnings:
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER TO LAGUNA DE PERLAS NICARAGUA
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA
WESTWARD TO THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF
VENEZUELA
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO
SANTA MARTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LIMON COSTA RICA NORTHWARD TO THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER
* NORTH OF LAGUNA DE PERLAS TO SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA
Scattered power outages, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding is the main risk for these areas Thursday into Friday evening
3:20pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: Latest 18z spaghetti plots remain clustered with landfall somewhere near Rockport, Texas and Port O Connor, Texas if it doesn't move more South than spaghetti plots are indicating.
Latest WPC rainfall totals updates for the next 72hours shows a swath of heavy rain near Victoria, Texas upwards to 4-6 inches and Houston Metro 3-6 inches, and there will be isolated higher amounts.
Intensity guidance suggest it could be a Tropical Depression or a 40-45 mph Tropical Storm if it spends more time over water. Flash flooding is likely and I do expect watches and warnings to be issued soon.
Also, heavy rainfall will be in place across the southeast during the next 72 hours with some areas in red and brown getting upwards to 3-6 inches of rain that will also induce flash flooding.
2:30pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: The NHC is still giving the area in the Gulf a 40% chance of development and it could become a short lived Tropical Depression before approaching the Texas coast early Thursday.
Latest WPC totals from this morning shows upwards to 2-3 inches of widespread rain the next 7 days for Texas, mainly Thursday into Saturday. Some areas will receive over 4 inches of rain, and some extreme isolated amounts over 6 inches. Winds could gust upwards to 45mph regardless if the system stays a tropical depression or a weak Tropical storm.
The Hurricane Hunters are investigating this system and by 4:30pm we should know if the NHC will issue PTC 3 advisories.
The area behind PTC 2 should get labeled Invest 96L in the next day or so as it has a 10% chance of development in 48 hours and 30% chance of development in five days.
12pm Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: Latest 12z model guidance continues to be tightly clustered between Rockport, Texas and Port O Connor, Texas with Invest 95L. Still expecting 4-6 inches of rain, isolated 6-8, gusty winds upwards to 45mph, flash flooding and isolated tornadoes.
PTC 2 is still anticipated to move through Venezuela into the Eastern Pacific.
The area behind PTC 2 soon to be Invest 96L is one that bears watching as it could provide impacts to the Windward and Leeward islands this weekend, Puerto Rico, Dominican republic and the Bahamas early next week before approaching the southeast in the US. It currently has a 10% chance in 48 hours and 30% chance in five days.
3:30am Tropical Update Wednesday 6/29: Latest 06z spaghetti plots for Invest 95L are in. It looks like the center will move onshore near Rockport, Texas or Port O Connor, Texas then move inland late Wednesday night (more likely early Thursday morning) with Houston remaining on the east side of the center. Latest 00z EURO ensembles agree with this scenario with some extreme outliers to the east to Louisiana and to the West towards Brownsville, Texas.
Latest 06z PTC 2 (Bonnie) spaghetti plots have made a significant shift to the east than at the 00z plots. Instead of crossing Venezuela into the Eastern Pacific it looks like it could cross into Venezuela, Honduras, and through Mexico.
2am Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update: The NHC is giving Invest 95L a 40% chance of development before moving inland tonight or Thursday near the Texas Coast.
Soon to be Invest 96L behind PTC 2 has a 10% chance in 48 hours and 30% chance in five days for development. This wave will move more WNW and cross over or near the Leeward Islands on Friday and Puerto Rico and the Dominican republic by early next week then approach the Bahamas and US South East Coast. Not much certainty with intensity but steering currents do allow it to have some impacts to the Caribbean islands and Bahamas in the next 7 days, and US in about 8-10 days. Alot to watch. I'll keep you updated.
12am Wednesday 6/29 Tropical Update for Invest 95L: Latest GFS operational run shows the heaviest rain near Victoria Texas and some 2-4 inches for the Houston metro.
A model blend suggest 4-6 inches for Southeast Texas, East Central Texas, isolated 6-8 inches in some spots in NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas.
More after the 2am update.
11pm Tuesday 6/28 PTC 2 advisories update:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM THE PENINSULA DE PARAGUANA WESTWARD TO
THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER INCLUDING THE GULF OF VENEZUELA.
* COAST OF COLOMBIA FROM THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER WESTWARD TO
SANTA MARTA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA
9:30pm Tuesday 6/28 Tropical Update: Latest 00z models are tightly clustered with landfall near Victoria, Texas. 4-6 inches of rain, winds gusting upwards to 45mph and isolated tornadoes as flash flooding will be the main impacts.
Latest 18z GFS model is similar to the 12z EURO model. 40% chance of development for Invest 95L and 30% chance for soon to be Invest 96L.
PTC 2 5pm Tuesday 6/28: Latest forecast expects Bonnie to form in 24hours IF the system in the Gulf doesn't form before PTC 2 transitions into Bonnie.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua * Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana
* Coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia/Venezuela border including the Gulf of Venezuela.
* Coast of Colombia from the Colombia/Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta
5pm EURO Invest 95L Update Tuesday 6/28: Latest 12z EURO places the heaviest rain in the Houston, Texas Metro and then in Arkansas and NW Louisiana. Likely to induce flash flooding. The tornado risk remains low but not impossible. Gusty winds upwards to 45mph could be possible with scattered power outages.
3:40pm Tuesday 6/28 Tropical Update: Latest 18z spaghetti plots are more clustered together with the system moving inland near Victoria, Texas In about 48 hours. Heavy rainfall 4-6 inches, isolated 6-8 inches, gusty winds upwards to 45mph and isolated tornadoes are the main impacts with flash flooding.
2pm Tuesday 6/28 Tropical Update: Latest NHC update gives the area in the Gulf of Mexico a 40% chance of development currently known as Invest 95L and does mention it could become a Tropical Depression near the Texas coast, so PTC 3 advisories could be coming in the next 24 hours.
The area behind PTC 2 is giving a 20% chance of development in the next five days.
Yay! What an amazing day for modeling upgrades. Upgrades to the GFS is coming and we are getting a new model called the hurricane analysis and forecast system (HAFS) by the 2023 Hurricane Season.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/us-supercomputers-for-weather-and-climate-forecasts-get-major-bump
Today, NOAA inaugurated the nation’s newest weather and climate supercomputers with an operational run of the National Blend of Models. The new supercomputers, first announced in Febuary 2020 with a contract award to General Dynamics Information Technology (GDIT), provide a significant upgrade to ...
12:30pm Tuesday 6/28 Invest 95L Tropical Update: Hello, Texas and Louisiana and Arkansas! Invest 95L will likely becoming TD 3 later today into tomorrow, and potentially become Colin. Regardless of naming, heavy rainfall is in the works for Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas.
Latest 12z GFS modeling shows upwards of 4-6 inches, whereas it's counterpart the EURO shows very heavy rainfall upwards to 4 inches for most of Southeast Texas, and upwards to a foot near some areas in Arkansas known as the sweetspot (heaviest rainfall area in a tropical entity) thus prompting a flash flooding threat.
The guidance in the first image is from Tuesday to Saturday per the EURO, second image is the guidance Tuesday to Saturday per the GFS.
There will be winds gusting upwards to 45mph in some areas, scattered power outages and widespread flash flooding for the areas where the heaviest rain happens.
The tornado risk is limited but not impossible.
More after the afternoon and evening modeling.
11:30am Tropical Update Tuesday 6/28: Latest NHC update gives Invest 95L a 30% chance of development and the wave behind PTC 2 a 20% chance in five days.
Invest 95L will impact Texas Wednesday into Friday of this week for southeast Texas and inland for Friday into Saturday with rainfall totals averaging around 4 inches, isolated 6-8 inches possible where heavier rain happens. Winds could gust upwards to 45mph If something forms. There is a low tornado risk. Flash flooding is a heighten risk.
The wave behind PTC 2 has a 20% chance of development and will move WNW through the Northern Caribbean and make it's closest approach to the Bahamas and Southeast by mid week next week. Will continue to monitor is as upper level winds should limit significant development.
PTC 2 advisories: The system will be steered WNW to West with a ridge to it's north as of the latest model guidance. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system today.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* ISLAS DE MARGARITA...COCHE AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
* CURACAO
* ARUBA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA
11pm NHC Update Monday 6/27:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM PEDERNALES TO CUMANA...INCLUDING ISLAS DE
MARGARITA...COCHE...AND CUBAGUA
* BONAIRE
PTC 2 advisories have been issued for Invest 94L and Tropical Storm Bonnie is expected to form later tonight into Tuesday and become a Hurricane later this week.
Current watches and warnings as of 5pm AST:
TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
NHC will issue PTC 2 advisories on at 5pm AST. STAY TUNED.
2pm Monday 6/26 Tropical Update: Hurricane Hunters have found winds upwards to Tropical Storm Force winds in Invest 94L. PTC 2 or TD 2 advisories could be coming later today to put up watches and warnings.
The area in the Gulf remains at 20% in five days and the area behind Invest 94L is also at 20% chance in five days.
1:30pm 12z GFS Update 6/27: So as far as future Invest 95L, the third area the NHC highlighted this morning, a more Northern track looks to be in the works as it heads towards Puerto Rico and then near or through the Bahamas by mid next week. Alot to watch but will keep you updated. It may remain weak but steering would likely bring this close to the US if it develops.
11:15am Monday 6/27 Tropical Update: The NHC is now giving Invest 94L a 70% chance of development in 48 hours and 90% in five days. Watches and warnings could be issued later today so it's likely we will see PTC 2 advisories.
The NHC is giving the area in the Gulf of Mexico a 20% chance of development in the next five days.
Also, the NHC is monitoring another wave behind Invest 94L and it has a 20% chance of development.
06z GFS ensembles do try to curve through Central America into the Gulf of Mexico and some into the Eastern Pacific. Today is the day models get more data inputted into them by Hurricane Hunters.
8pm Sunday 6/26 Tropical Update: The NHC is giving Invest 94L a 60% chance in 48 hours and 80% chance in five days, and because of such tropical storm watches and warnings could be issued on Monday, thus if it doesn't form into a TD, there will be PTC 2 advisories.
The area in the Gulf has a 10% chance in the next 48 hours and 20% chance in five days.
4pm Sunday 6/26 Tropical Update: Invest 94L looks very impressive on satellite imagery and winds are currently at 35mph. I wouldn't be surprised to see PTC advisories or a tropical depression advisories by late tonight into early tomorrow.
Some ensembles members still try to avoid it moving into Central America by having it going NW or WNW through the Yucatan peninsula and near the Bay of Campeche to the Gulf. It's still too early to be certain on the steering mechanisms in place in the upper levels.
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