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28/10/2024

About the UDP leadership struggles.

It is clear that the battle in the UDP is between the old status quo and the new leadership.

After the devastating loss to the PUP in the general elections, it was clear that the Belize populace had reached their breaking point with the UDP as a party. The corruption was crushing, the incompetence was astounding. The people voted them out.

After contentious leadership battles, Shyne emerged as the UDP leader. He was new, young and wanted to clean house. He understood that as long as the old corrupt politicians were at the head of the UDP, the party would not be able to show the Belizean populace that they were serious about reform.

Unfortunately, the old guard refused to give in. They had been in charge for too long. They longed to go back to their heydays of the past three terms.

You see, the PUP went through this exact scenario, frighteningly and eerily similar. After their crushing defeat in 2008, Johnny the “new” leader was ousted by the status quo leaders of Fonseca, Musa et al. They then proceeded to lose three elections.

It was not until Johnny came back and revamped the party and especially the candidates, bringing in new clean candidates that the PUP won again.

Tracy becoming the leader ensures that the PUP wins at least two more elections. How so? It would mean that the status quo, the old leaders have won, leaders such as Corrupt Saldivar, Boots, Castro, Patrick Faber, Beverly, Yellowman, Fonso and Juliet. Belize has ruled on them, but they refuse to ride off into the sunset.

Everyone thinks that Shyne is the problem, but his cleaning house is necessary to revamp the UDP. The old guard will not give in. It’s a fight for the future of the UDP.

The PUP is better off with Tracy.

09/01/2023

The Convention in Belmopan.

The UDP Leader Shyne is in a bad spot. Because of John Saldivar, he got Hugo Patt to vote him as LOO. But at the same time, he loves his US Visa and cannot publicly suppport John Saldivar.

Shyne is now begging the Police Department to do something to take John out of the race and out of the UDP.

Shyne's other option is Emil Torres. The problem is that Emil Torres is green, very green, and also his UDP Bonafides are questionable. Everyone knows that he and the present PUP Area Representative are very good friends. In fact Minister Oscar Mira has bought his personal vehicles from Emil even before the elections. Could it be that Hon. Oscar set him up to run for the UDP?

It cannot be that Emil would risk his entire Business without someone in the PUP looking out for him. His brother is a senior Customs Officer who has always leaned PUP. If Hon. Oscar Mira set him up to run for the UDP it would be a master move, since it would not matter who won, either John or Emil, he would be safe. The only other option, Khalid, is out of the race, a decision taken in an abrupt manner, when he had all the signs of winning.

How interesting this race is. My prediction is that John still wins, due to his machinery that he built over the years, but it is a major mystery why Emil would risk it all at this time. Maybe he is doing it for his "friend", Hon. Mira. Stranger things have happened in Politics.

09/11/2021

John Saldivar Vs Khalid Belisle

Who will win this round?

04/08/2020

The Fascinating Race in Belmopan!

Let us try to get some context. John Saldivar won the seat of Belmopan in a Bye Election when Minister Cawich died of Cancer 15 years ago. He had tried twice before and had lost both times. Courts had just sent their bailiffs to re-possess some items he owed them and things looked bleak for him. The death of Cawich and the anti-PUP sentiment at the time allowed him to squeak a win.

Since then he has become a behemoth, with his ever present dream of becoming leader of the UDP. The Danny Mason scandal was the first stumble or c***k in his armor, the PM being forced to remove him from cabinet. The second blow was the Lev Dermen saga that gripped the entire nation and ended with his forced resignation 72 hours after having finally achieved his dream of becoming leader of the UDP. His ministry was taken away along with all the perks and benefits that come with it. The final nail in his dream of leadership was hammered shut when he lost to Patrick Faber in the second round.

Now we get to the situation in Belmopan. The Capital City is a city of public servants in the central and north and mostly Hispanic laborers in the outskirts. The public servants were aghast at the news that their champion and leader had been in bed with Lev Dermen and had been collecting hundreds of thousands of dollars from him. Public Servants are conservative and honest, and John had been one of them. The betrayal was absolute and complete. The public Servants shut their doors to John. John's inner circle of sycophants assured him that everything was fine, that he was unbeatable and urged him to go for round two of the leadership convention, but the reality was far different, John was toxic even to his own party. The UDP maneuvered to elect Patrick Faber.

At the same time, the PUP appeared to finally have gotten its house in order in Belmopan, with a brand new candidate with impeccable credentials. The young Oscar Mira came from a family who was not a traditional political family. They were a success story, honest, educated and intelligent. The question was always going to be if he could unite the different PUP factions in Belmopan who had always self destructed in elections. It appears that Mr. Mira has succeeded and has had time to build a coalition that up to now has been stable. A quick look a their social media page has a new modern look and feel to it. For the first time in a very long time the PUP had actually put up a solid candidate to battle John, who up to that time was considered unbeatable in Belmopan.

Enter Anna Banner Guy. Anna Guy has been a strong UDP supporter who actually came from PUP roots. She had been one of the shining stars of the UDP in Belmopan and her Organization BAY had worked primarily with the young people of Belmopan. Her independent nature got her into trouble. It was the convention to elect a deputy leader for the UDP and Anna Guy had the gall to support Patrick over John Saldivar, and the rest is history. John Saldivar ensured that she was not included in the next UDP municipal slate and Anna Guy was shown the door. John Saldivar would brook no disobedience.

The UDP in Belmopan, started to push Anna Guy to run as an independent. You see, they did not want to vote for John, but they could not see themselves voting for a PUP either, so they found the solution with Anna Guy.

The last piece of this political chess match is the recent announcement by John that Richie Galvez is his pick for Mayor in the next municipal elections. The timing is perfect for John. People start talking and quarreling over Richie and attention moves away from him. It has had the opposite effect. The problem is that Jacklyn Burns has always had aspirations, and is obviously better prepared and educated. Richie was a just-come, from a PUP family, his brother had been a PUP senator, Richie himself had been active in Belmopan PUP politics with Ruth Logan and his appointment by John has rubbed the Belmopan UDP's the wrong way.

Pundits are actually commenting that Anna Guy might garner more votes than John Saldivar. I am not of that opinion. The entrance of Anna into the game obviously catapults Oscar Mira into the driving seat in Belmopan, and if Anna Guy can win a couple hundred votes, Oscar would be in pole position to win. John Saldivar's people have expressed the same to me. They contend that Anna Guys entrance into the race hands the election to Mr. Oscar Mira. Maybe this is what Anna Guy wants. She wants John gone. She is obviously playing the long game.

What a fascinating race.

28/07/2020

John Saldivar VS Khalid Belisle

It was very telling, that there have been two official ceremonies in Belmopan and John Saldivar has not been invited to any of them.

The first function was a Tea Party that was given for Pioneers of Belmopan, since this is the 50th Birthday of Belmopan. The Fact that John Saldivar was not invited was a bombshell, since as the Area Rep for BELMOPAN, how could he not be involved?

The second official function was the groundbreaking ceremony for a new Polyclinic at the Western Regional Hospital in Belmopan. The news showed Khalid and Patrick Faber but again, John Saldivar was not invited.

The fact of the matter is that Belmopan Residents are very unhappy with their area rep. His desire to be Prime Minister blinded him and he accepted criminal money in his obsessive pursuit of the leadership position. He forgot that Belmopan Residents are some of the most educated people in the country, they are primarily public servants who are honest, and who were horrified when the news broke that John had been involved with Lev Dermen. They had already been uneasy about the Mason connection, but were willing to overlook that one and give him another chance. Everyone deserves a second chance. But when the Lev Dermen scandal broke, these educated public servants quickly realized that it was a pattern. His lies to the Cabinet struck a nerve, since most of them are good conservative residents who go to church and are generally good people.

Khalid had broken with him before, and there is now a deep chasm between them. John Saldivar has started to become desperate and is now starting to do house visits, but it was telling that Khalid was not invited to the planning sessions.

Will the good people win this election? Or will John weasel his way back into the good graces of the residents and attempt to fool them again?

Today Mason is being sentenced. We have not forgotten. Pastor Lue deserves justice, and not just the ones that actually killed him, but the ones that ordered his death, the ones that wanted his head.

21/07/2020

The unthinkable DEMISE of John Saldivar.

Just a couple years back, it was unthinkable, unimaginable even, that John would be so toxic politically. It was widely believed that his popularity was such that the Belmopan constituency could be put in the UDP column. In fact John was so confident that he declared publicly on his Social Media page that the person had not yet been BORN that could win him in Belmopan. He challenged GOD himself with these words, since it is the creator alone that decides these things. It is never a good idea to proclaim yourself to be invincible. He has now lost his Ministry and has lost his lifelong ambition to be the leader of the UDP. These are all signs that GOD did not like the Hubris that John Saldivar had proclaimed upon himself. His arrogance was such that he declared that nobody could ever win him. Well Patrick Faber has now done so, and all the polls show that it is a tight race in Belmopan for the next General Elections.

Never challenge God. His words are coming back to haunt him. His arrogance is coming back to haunt him. His boast that nobody had been born that could win him now looks like a challenge to the creator. His own UDP followers are ashamed of his deeds. The Mason scandal still hangs over him. Pastor Lue has still not been given justice. Lev Dermen has been punished and John awaits his fate in the next General Elections.

God does not like boastful people. Challenge him at your own peril .

10/07/2020

What are your thoughts on this?

08/07/2020

Between these lines … Written by: Glenn Tillett
I am giving in to requests from my readers and followers, some of them that is, and will proffer my thoughts for the record on Sunday’s UDP leadership election. Be forewarned that you should expect that it will be a tad long, and I will be my usual pedantic self. In fact, I may have to post it in two episodes rather than trying to condense it because contemplating the course of our political annals requires one to remain firmly in the present, but like Janus, you have to simultaneously contemplate the past as you consider what will be the future.
I remember way back in February 2007, I think it was, when Dean Barrow was re-elected UDP Party Leader. He had been challenged by Cynthia Ellis Topsey, a longtime social activist but a partisan political novice. If memory serves me right not only did Dean barrow win handily, but Gasper “Gapi” Vega was the consensus choice as his deputy.
Gapi would then go on to become to Barrow what Ralph Fonseca had been to Said Musa. Unlike Said though, Dean Barrow would jettison Gapi following his November 2015 re-election general election victory, whereas Said had locked Ralph in an even tighter embrace despite an unprecedented insurrection in his Cabinet that had demanded that he fire Ralph from his Cabinet in August 2004.
In December 2015 Barrow, perhaps sensing that the tsunami of corruption allegations regarding Gapi’s handling of his Lands Ministry portfolio was about to crash on his administration, took away or refused to renew Gapi’s tenure as minister of natural resources, (take your pick), and Gapi soon effectively resigned from Cabinet and declared in March 2015: “I will not contest the position of area representative of Orange Walk North in the next general election.”
Gapi is a three-term area representative and his Orange Walk North seat was widely regarded as one of the party’s safest, and by every account he was a powerhouse in the party. In his letter of resignation, according to Channel 7, he told Barrow: "It has been established that the party is...not having another biennial for another four years; because...I will not be a candidate in the next general election, I am convinced that the proper thing to do is to withdraw my application for Deputy Party Leader in the upcoming biennial convention to be held on March 20, 2016."
Within days both Patrick Faber and John Saldivar announced their intention to compete for the now vacant First Deputy Leader post, and that post was regarded by all as Mr. Barrow’s heir apparent because way back in 2009, he had engineered a constitutional amendment limiting the holder of the office of the prime minister to three-terms.
It is also important to my consideration to remember that the impetuous Patrick Faber had challenged Gaspar Vega for the post of Deputy Leader, at the UDP biennial convention on February 17th, 2013, and had suffered his first electoral defeat by 98 votes, Vega 331, Patrick Faber 233.
At the time his challenge had been a surprise to most observers, a kinda charge of the light brigade, but all things considered, he had done well. He told Jules Vasquez afterward: “I am of course still a very young man and I have time longer than rope, so I will be back."
That experience would serve Patrick well, because his insurgent campaign would result in his beating John Saldivar by 88 votes, 336 to 248, on May 30, 2015. It was a surprise to many since Saldivar had garnered the public endorsement of 18 of the 31 area representatives and standard bearers. Furthermore, unlike in his first attempt, Dean Barrow had not publicly endorsed any of the two candidates. Patrick, however, had campaigned with and to the delegates, the 15 persons chosen from each constituency to vote, along with area reps, standard-bearers, and party officers, and that had paid off big time.
Patrick’s term as heir apparent was not smooth, to say the least, but every time when he seemed dead in the water, pun intended, his fortunes would be revived by his rival being swamped time and again by huge waves of controversy. Those waves, as towering as they were crashing into the collective consciousness, however, were not enough to prevent defeat. He was unable to ride them to victory a few months ago.
More tomorrow if you’ve been able to read this far.

06/07/2020

Melchor Voters!

The statement put out by the Ministry of Education recently that students of Melchor will NOT be allowed to register or to attend school has but the politicians in the west into a frenzy. It is a well known fact and pictures exist of busloads of voters coming over in every election to cast their votes, usually in bright red shirts.

The closure of the land borders has put the elections in the west into uncharted waters since these "Voters" will not be able to come over to vote. The fact of the matter is that elections are messy and some unscrupulous Persons vying for office might want to risk opening the borders to allow these persons to vote.

COVID has affected many things in Belize, and this is an unexpected development that nobody saw coming. It is a good thing, but in politics, anything is possible. It might just give certain politicians an edge and some others might be fretting fearfully.

Border jumpers have brought quite a number of positive COVID cases. We as a people need to insist that the borders remain closed. Melchor residents should NEVER have gotten our precious nationality anyways.

Belize forever.

03/07/2020

The reasons why Darrel Bradley's candidacy was doomed from the start.

Darrel Bradely is basically a good man. He is progressive and relatively honest. This was a problem for his leadership candidacy in the UDP since there are too many hustles going on that would be endangered if he were to become leader. The UDP are in their third term in office and corruption has become complete and blatant. The status quo has become entrenched and the pickings are good right now for the politically connected. As you may have noticed, not a single sitting Minister has endorsed his candidacy and in fact they actively collaborated to get his "too Honest" persona out of the race.

Bradley directly threatened the Candidate for Caribbean Shores. How so? This stems from another weakness that has been a noose around Bradley's neck. He does not have a constituency and it is not possible to be a leader of a Mass party without a constituency. That means that if he were to win he would HAVE to be given a constituency. You would think that he would be given a freebie, but the problem is that both freebies that come to mind (Queen Square and Mesopotamia) have a Barrow as a candidate and thus untouchable. This means that Darrel would have to return to his previous constituency, Caribbean Shores. The problem is that there is already a Standard Bearer there in the person of Lee Mark Chang.

It was therefore no surprise that Lee Mark made sure to leak out the ace in his sleeve which was the bills that the then Mayor Bradley had racked up at his restaurant. The optics were horrible, but Lee Mark had already deduced that his constituency was at risk if Bradley won the leadership and moved to secure his seat at the table.

This was the same seat that Dean Barrow publicly said a few years back that had been abandoned by Darrel and moved to conduct a convention that Lee Mark won. Barrow showed with that move that he did NOT want Bradley as the next leader.

Bradley's candidacy directly threatened the Barrow family's continued dominance of the UDP. It could not be allowed. Darrel was getting too big. He had to be put in his place. He was an upstart. He had to be disciplined. His Dad did not help him either.

02/07/2020

The Politics of Covid 19.

There three sub sets of Belizean thinking on Covid.

The first set are people who have enough to eat, who have savings, who took the shutdown as a reset button. They stayed home, spent time with the kids, saw movies, and worked a little from home. These people do not want the Airport to open, they do not want the curfew to end, they want to keep it locked down tight. You cannot blame them for wanting to remain safe. It is whats best for them.

The second set are the many who lost their jobs, they are struggling to pay rent, to pay bills, to buy uniforms for their children, who struggle to buy groceries. Thousands of them worked in the tourism sector, in the fishing sector, in non-essential menial jobs. They are at a point where it is either they take the risk of dying from Covid or risk hunger, real hunger. Its not that they want the Airport to open out of selfishness, they have no choice.

The third set are the unscrupulous business people who are crying for their lost profits. The third set is the Government, who through their incompetence, put all their eggs in the tourism basket and did not save any of the PetroCaribe monies nor the BNE Oil Money into a Sovereign Fund for times exactly like this. They are borrowing to pay salaries. Imagine that. They cannot wait any longer and will open the Airport even though the USA is in the midst of a huge second wave. 75% of our tourists come from the USA.

We need to see everyone's point of view and choose the best solution. I personally cannot see how we can open the Airport to Americans when they just had their record day in infections, 50,000 new cases in ONE DAY. I am sure the Government of Belize will have to reconsider their decision.

Regardless, lets be empathetic and listen, especially to the second group, because it is they that have no choice, they will need help to survive.

29/06/2020

Why Saldivar will not win the Leadership again.

What a difference a few months make in the life of a Politician. On February 9th, in spite of persistent rumors that John had lied to the Prime Minister, and to cabinet, about receiving untold thousands of US dollars from the criminal Lev Dermen, the machinery built to deliver the leadership to John Saldivar did its job. John Saldivar reached the pinnacle of political heights but his reign at the top was short lived.

The news burst like an explosion in a courtroom in Utah. Testimony linked 100 thousand dollars to John Saldivar in a double tranche, Saldivar somehow smuggling this money back to Belize. Saldivar tried to fight for his spot, but his position was untenable and Dean got the same colleagues that got him elected to convince him to resign.

The campaign leading up to that ill fated convention was bitter. Bitter as we had never seen. The Barrow's had been disrespected by Patrick, sealing his fate, and John was elected by default. 72 hours later he was gone, his political career in shambles, his once impregnable position in Belmopan suddenly up for grabs.

Shyne Barrow was the lead player in sinking Patrick Faber, throwing the Barrrow support by proxy towards John Saldivar. Now here we are again, John insisting on running for leader again. This time, the broad coalition of cabinet colleagues have disappeared. Beverly Castillo and Macario Coy two of the few supporters.

The interesting facts are that lately, it appears that Patrick Faber has humbled himself and appealed to Barrow. There has been no vitriol by Shyne towards Patrick, in fact the opposite, some praise thrown his way. Omar, the leading candidate for leader publicly praising Patrick Faber effusively on a news report.

The last straw for Saldivar, and the nail in his proverbial coffin has been the stories that his henchmen Dougie, Miley and Jason Neal are being investigated by the Police and FIU. This can only be possible if the UDP hierarchy has decided that John has to lose and Patrick is now back in favor. Other signs are fake news attacking Saldivar in pages mimicking local traditional media. These are all attacks from his own party.

The table is set for the sacrifice of Saldivar. He was never supposed to apply to run for leadership again. His ego and hubris were in full display. "If Patrick runs, I will run" he declared. But this time, he does not have Barrow's support. Macario Coy cannot make him win. The die is cast.

It appears that Patrick will win in the end!

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About the UDP leadership struggles. It is clear that the battle in the UDP is between the old status quo and the new leadership. After the devastating loss to the PUP in the general elections, it was clear that the Belize populace had reached their breaking point with the UDP as a party. The corruption was crushing, the incompetence was astounding. The people voted them out. After contentious leadership battles, Shyne emerged as the UDP leader. He was new, young and wanted to clean house. He understood that as long as the old corrupt politicians were at the head of the UDP, the party would not be able to show the Belizean populace that they were serious about reform. Unfortunately, the old guard refused to give in. They had been in charge for too long. They longed to go back to their heydays of the past three terms. You see, the PUP went through this exact scenario, frighteningly and eerily similar. After their crushing defeat in 2008, Johnny the “new” leader was ousted by the status quo leaders of Fonseca, Musa et al. They then proceeded to lose three elections. It was not until Johnny came back and revamped the party and especially the candidates, bringing in new clean candidates that the PUP won again. Tracy becoming the leader ensures that the PUP wins at least two more elections. How so? It would mean that the status quo, the old leaders have won, leaders such as Corrupt Saldivar, Boots, Castro, Patrick Faber, Beverly, Yellowman, Fonso and Juliet. Belize has ruled on them, but they refuse to ride off into the sunset. Everyone thinks that Shyne is the problem, but his cleaning house is necessary to revamp the UDP. The old guard will not give in. It’s a fight for the future of the UDP. The PUP is better off with Tracy.

Speaking about John Saldivar