17/08/2021
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Aerial tanker deja vu
A decade after Mobile saw its hopes for an aerial tanker project vanish, there is renewed hope that the city that now builds two type of Airbus passenger jets may again get a chance to help produce a mainstay of the American military.
The Air Force in June released a sources sought notice for the non-developmental tanker, KC-Y, that would bridge the gap between the Boeing KC-46 and the next-generation KC-Z tanker. The Air Force wants as many as 15 tankers a year, with the new “bridge tanker” operational in 2029.
The notice means Boeing and Airbus may end up in another tanker war as early as next year, when the Air Force is expected to finalize requirements for the project to buy up to 160 KC-Ys.
Mobilians are aware of the background. Airbus, then known as EADS, and Boeing competed for the right to build the current KC-135 replacement. Airbus initially won in 2008 and planned to build them in Mobile, which at that time had no aircraft assembly lines. But following a Boeing protest the $35 billion contract went to Boeing in 2011.
After the loss, Airbus decided to build its most popular jetliner, the A320, in Mobile, making the city the fourth worldwide to build the jet. Later, Airbus decided to build the A220, the former Bombardier C-Series, at a second assembly in Mobile, making it the world’s fourth largest passenger jet manufacturing center.
With two such major wins, it’s not surprising that many in Mobile are looking forward to another opportunity for a battle between Boeing, with a modified KC-46, and the Airbus A330 multi-role transport.
Opening salvos
At a House Armed Services Committee hearing in June, Reps. Rob Wittman, R-Va., and Mike Rogers, R-Ala., expressed frustration with the KC-46 and asked Air Force leaders to consider re-competing the contract due to Boeing’s poor performance., according to Defense News of June 16. The Air Force intends to buy 179 KC-46s over the program of record, wrapping up in fiscal year 2027.
In the same article, Republican Rep. Jerry Carl, who represents Mobile, made the case that U.S. Air Force fighters operating in Europe regularly receive fuel from the Airbus A330 tanker.
“Knowing that we’ve got an aircraft that can be built in America ... why are we not bringing this back up for a bid?” he asked.
Acting Air Force Secretary John Roth said the service currently doesn’t see a cost-benefit to re-opening the KC-X competition.
“I take your point in terms of the history of the contact,” he said. “But…we’re concerned that if we tried to go into a new contract vehicle, that would put additional delays into the program that we simply don’t think would be efficacious for us,” according to Defense News.
At least one expert doesn't think the Air Force will abandon Boeing.
Loren Thompson wrote in Forbes that unless the Air Force wants a repeat of the protracted process of the initial competition, “KC-46 would seem to be the obvious candidate for the next increment of tanker purchases,” he wrote July 15.
“If the Air Force gets to a point where it holds a competition for the next lot of tankers, the outcome isn’t likely to be different from the matchup a decade ago, in which the deputy secretary of defense described Boeing’s entry as “the clear winner.”
Thompson lists a series of issues he sees, ranging from the larger size of the Airbus offering to the length of time if would take for certification of the Airbus tanker. Thompson also points out that fleet diversity drives up costs, and that the Air Force has repeatedly stated that it needs to reduce the number of aircraft types in its fleet to save money. Adding another aircraft type to the fleet means new training programs for pilots and maintainers, unique stores of spare parts, construction of hangers that can house bigger aircraft, and other costs.
Another aerospace expert, Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, a Virginia-based market analysis firm, sees another factor in the new competition.
“This looks like a USAF attempt to put competitive pressure on Boeing, and also to deflect criticism of the KC-46 acquisition. In other words, Boeing still has a chance here. All they need to do is get their program back on track, and submit a competitive bid.
“However, with billions in losses and similar ex*****on problems on other programs, Boeing may continue to struggle with the KC-46. Thus, Airbus may have a chance, particularly if it teams with Lockheed Martin. Yet previous Airbus teaming arrangements with Lockheed Martin have failed, and its tanker alliance with Northrop Grumman collapsed too. Airbus may need a backup plan if it has to go it alone.”
Although talk of the looming competition heated up only recently, as far back as late 2018 there was talk about a future aerial tanker battle when Airbus teamed up with Lockheed Martin to develop tankers to meet the military's growing demand. (see December 2018 Gulf Coast Aerospace Newsletter, pp 5-6)
The 2018 announcement of the memorandum of agreement between the two aerospace giants came eight years after Airbus lost the tanker battle. In that battle, Airbus teamed with Northrop Grumman and in 2008 won the $35 billion contract to build tankers in Mobile, but it lost in a new bidding process.
Now Airbus will work with Lockheed Martin, the largest U.S. defense contractor, to go after the next possible aircraft and refueling service orders from the U.S. military. The U.S. Air Force is examining ways to meet growing demand for aerial refueling with possible fee-for-service arrangements, purchases of hundreds of additional aircraft, and the future development of a stealthy tanker.
The Airbus A330-based Multi Role Tanker Transport (MRTT) has been selected by 12 countries. It’s already refueling or capable of refueling most major U.S. combat airplanes, including the Lockheed-built F-35.
The Airbus-Lockheed agreement opens the intriguing possibility that Mobile could be the site to build A330 MRTT aircraft. Airbus has not ruled out producing tankers in Mobile if it can secure Pentagon business, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Although it’s already building A320 and A220 jetliners, there appears to be no issue of space. During the Southeast Aerospace and Defense Conference in Mobile in June 2018, Chris Curry, executive director of the
Mobile Airport Authority, said the plan to move commercial airline traffic to the 1,200-acre downtown airport will not hinder industrial tenants like Airbus, who were consulted during the study to ensure any move would not jeopardize their operations.
Asked what kind of space Brookley has for future companies, Curry said it has as much space as needed and hinted it could acquire more if needed.
The heavy activity is also apparently not an issue to Airbus. During November’s Aerospace Alliance Summit, an
Airbus official pointed out that the airport in France’s Toulouse is far busier and it poses no problems for building aircraft.
Autonomous future
One of the factors on the horizon is the move towards a more autonomous future. Drones have made inroads in the military, from surveillance aircraft to attack platforms, and the current push is aerial refueling drones.
While the talk right now is the looming KC-Y battle, the Air Force is looking at the next-generation capability based on “advanced technologies.”
Lt. Gen. David Nahom, deputy chief of staff for programs, told Senate appropriators in July: “We’re keeping our eyes open to advanced technology. There may be something else beyond the KC-46, beyond a 767-based platform to take us into the future.”
Three years ago Boeing won an $805 million development contract to build Navy MQ-25A “Stingray” drones, with the promise of billions more for 76 of the remotely piloted, carrier-capable aerial refueling aircraft. Since that time Boeing has tested the new tanker. In early June, Boeing's “T1” prototype flew out of Illinois, accompanied by a Navy F/A-18F. Mid-air, the fighter connected to the drone’s fueling hose-and-drogue and received 325 pounds of fuel - the first successful aerial refueling of a Navy fighter from a drone, according to Defense News.
It will take two MQ-25 drones to fill up an F-18, but it proved the concept, and advance the T1 prototype to the next stage of testing: deck handling trials out of Norfolk, Va.
Little doubt the Air Force is keeping a close eye on the Navy's autonomous system. That service could begin to lay out its vision for a future aerial refueling tanker as early as next year.
In February, AMC commander Gen. Jacqueline Van Ovost said during a Defense Writers Group meeting with reporters that the study will help the Air Force determine which capabilities a future tanker will need to operate in more heavily contested battlefields against the threats posed by nations such as Russia and China.
Key to that discussion is figuring out how much of the aerial refueling process can be performed without a human pilot or boom operator onboard the plane to fly it or give other aircraft gas.
“Is going to be autonomous? Is it going to be pilot on the loop [or] pilot in the loop capability?” asked Van Ovost. “Is it going to be small? Is it going to be large? What kind of [self protection] is it going to have? What kind of electromagnetic spectrum capabilities is it going to have to both protect itself and enhance the lethality of the Joint Force while it’s out there?”
Truce amid challenges
The contest for the KC-Y kicked off the same week President Biden and the European Union called a truce in a 17-year trade battle over state subsidies allegedly given to the U.S. and European plane makers. In June both sides agreed to suspend for five years World Trade Organization-authorized tariffs temporarily suspended in March.
It eases trade tensions amid growing economic competition from China. As part of the deal, the EU and the U.S. agreed to provide research and development funding through an open and transparent process as well as to not give specific support to their own producers that would harm the other side.
While the United States and Europe waged their trade battle, China poured money into its own commercial aircraft to take on the aviation duopoly. Biden made it clear during his visit to Brussels that Washington and Brussels must “work together to challenge and counter China’s non-market practices in this sector that give China’s companies an unfair advantage.”
For the past four years, state-run manufacturer Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has run test flights for its 168-seat, narrow-bodied C919 airplane, a potential rival to the A320 and B737. COMAC expects to obtain airworthiness certification from Chinese regulators this year.
The aircraft received between $49 billion and $72 billion in state subsidies, much more than the aid that Airbus and Boeing were given by their governments, according to Scott Kennedy, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“The very real problem is that China is manipulating the market in playing Airbus and Boeing against each other and demanding technology transfers as a condition for orders,” said the Teal Group’s Aboulafia.
Boeing believes that the Chinese market will need 9,360 aircraft in the next 20 years, one-fifth of the world total. It could be a major windfall for the A320 and the 737 MAX, though China has yet to authorize the return of the Boeing aircraft, which was grounded for 20 months in the US following two fatal crashes.
- Gulf Coast Reporters League