Easy Newz

06/09/2023

Learn how Gorlion helps companies navigate the shifting grain landscape on the Easy Newz App. Click the link below from your mobile app.

04/09/2023

Happy Labor Day: A History of the Holiday.

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30/08/2023

Political polarization and debt are now intertwined.

Odd Lots is a financial podcast interviewing guests on current events in the financial markets. What is unique is the amount of thought and listener feedback that goes into each episode. The recent episode featuring Professor Barry Eichengreen did not disappoint.

The United States’ deficit is just under $33 trillion. The unofficial debt, including future entitlement obligations, is almost $100 trillion. Debt in the post-pandemic world has gone parabolic. The United States and other governments worldwide are spending like a war-time economy. The US dollar provides a privileged status for America to borrow larger and larger amounts.

Professor Eichengreen does an excellent job of framing the situation. There are specific risks for countries with high debt burdens: slower growth and limited fiscal response. When the next crisis arrives, politicians will have fewer dollars to throw at it. It is not only the governments; private companies took on massive debt loads in the ultra-low interest rate world. Inflation was an obvious result in hindsight after a decade where policymakers failed to reach their 2% inflation target.

A critical point is political polarization's role in the United States’ debt situation going forward. Both parties came together in the 1980s and 1990s with debt as a common issue. The United States ran a budget surplus in the late 1990s. Responsible governance is incomprehensible in 2023.

Both parties spend, cut taxes, and blame each other. There are no coalitions forced to work together. The professor points out that the top 1% are receiving Social Security. Politicians will not take on unpopular issues, no matter how obvious. This brings us to the question, “How will the debt be brought under control?”

The answer is a crisis or loss of confidence, likely spurred by the political polarization driving the deficit spending in the first place. Many experts talk about the dollar’s weaponization or foreign countries dumping treasuries, but there is no viable alternative to the dollar, nor will there be any time soon.

When foreign governments, private companies, or citizens no longer trust U.S. politicians to behave responsibly, the risk of a debt crisis will increase significantly. After the 2024 election will the next debt ceiling fight. This issue is not going away.

17/08/2023

Argentina's economic collapse is almost complete. A lot could change post-October elections. Here is the story of how corruption and money printing got them here.

Argentina’s economic collapse has caught the world’s attention. The first-round election results indicate change might finally be a real possibility. How did it end up here?

14/08/2023

Argentina's PASO election results reaffirm the country is sick of the incessant corruption, sky-high inflation, and disastrous economic policies.

Ignore the Mainstream Media's comparisons to Trump or right-wing attitudes. It is as much about a rejection of the establishment (Massa and Laretta) as embracing seriously needed change.

07/08/2023

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05/08/2023

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31/07/2023

August's U.S. weather outlook points to improving corn and soybean yields.

The chances of corn yields of 175 or above are again increasing as August begins with a favorable forecast. The first half of the month indicates temperatures below average with no significant heat showing up. Northern Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin will not get much rain. The lower half of the corn belt should receive regular to well above normal in localized areas.

Most of the growing area has received below-average rainfall since planting began in April. Conditions have improved materially over the last month as the blocking pattern moved southeast in early July. Eastern North Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and northern Missouri continue to get picked on, but the rest of the corn belt received near or above-normal precipitation over the last 30 days.

Yield models in early July indicated corn was in the 168 to 170 bushels per acre nationally, and soybeans could be slightly below 50. This morning yield models are pushing back toward 175 with the possibility of 176 to 178 if everything goes right. Similarly, soybean yields are now indicated at 51 to 51.5, with August weather more important for soybean development.

If these yields are realized, the corn carry-out will likely move above 2.5 billion bushels, and soybeans closers to 300 million. Implications for price are more significant for corn futures due to the tight Western hemisphere soybean stocks and improved Chinese demand outlook. Export interest for USA corn and soybeans remains below normal seasonally.

While the War in Ukraine will drive headlines in the coming weeks, the supply outlook in the United States is improving. The ratio of soybeans to corn is 2.65 and could move toward three if there is any surprise risk to soybeans during the pod-filling period. Corn ending stocks above 2.5 billion imply futures above $5 are overpriced.

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27/07/2023

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24/07/2023

The most important part of the India rice export story is its signal for more controls coming down the pipeline. Get the full story at the link below, free on your mobile device.


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11/07/2023

France will fine, and name and shame food companies that price gouge.

French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said 75 companies have pledged to lower the prices of food products in France beginning in July. The announcement seemed like a cooperative effort to address Europe’s soaring food inflation.

It quickly became clear that this was not a voluntary program. Companies will be penalized financially if they do not comply. They will also not hesitate to name and shame companies if they do not reach targets.


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07/07/2023

Bunge and Chevron announce the purchase of Argentina seed company.

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Bunge and Chevron formed a joint venture that most thought would be an agreement for soybean oil offtake in North America. Bunge is the world’s largest oilseed crusher, and Chevron is an oil major committed to low-carbon fuel production through its Chevron Renewable Energy Group inc.

The scope expanded with the acquisition of Chacraservicios SRL in Argentina. The company’s flagship product is a Camelina Sativa seed. This is a high-oil content cover crop beneficial for consumers and the environment. Bunge will take over management and processing.

"Agricultural innovation drives the development of renewable fuels around the world, and opportunities like this help Chevron expand our portfolio of affordable, reliable, and lower carbon fuels," said Natalie Merrill, senior vice president of business development for Chevron Renewable Energy. Group. "Together with Bunge, Chevron Renewable Energy Group looks forward to working with the Chacraservicios team on innovations in meal and oil processing."

04/07/2023

July 4: America’s Independence Day

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Americans get together to celebrate the July 4 holiday with barbeques, parades, and fireworks. Over 10,000 people will end up in an emergency room or hospital from fireworks-related accidents each year. It is estimated that Americans will spend nearly $2.5 billion on fireworks this year.

Representatives of the thirteen colonies ratified the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 1776, at the Second Continental Congress. Thomas Jefferson presented the document on July 2, aiming for this to be the day they declared independence from King George III. It took two days for the committee to review, temper the language directed at the King, and unanimously agree to separate from Great Britain. Hence July 4 became the most famous date in American history.

The annual celebration of Independence Day did not become commonplace for decades, until after the War of 1812. Other festivals, such as the completion of the Erie Canal, were scheduled to coincide with July 4 holiday.

The holiday quickly grew to become one of the most important every year. Congress made July 4 a federally recognized holiday in 1870, and in 1938 it became a paid holiday for all government employees.

Interestingly, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams, the two signatories of the Declaration of Independence, became presidents. Both would die the same day, July 4, 1726, exactly fifty years later. John Adams was the only president not to celebrate the holiday; he viewed July 2 as the real independence day.

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28/06/2023

What to expect from the USDA Plantings and Stocks Report.

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08/06/2023

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07/06/2023

Educación: cuándo comenzar a regar los cultivos de soja.

La extensión de la Universidad Estatal de Mississippi ha proporcionado una excelente descripción general de cuándo comenzar a regar los cultivos de soja. Geográficamente, a principios de junio es cuando los cultivos sembrados temprano en el Sur y Medio Sur de Estados Unidos comenzarán las etapas clave de desarrollo. A finales de junio y principios de julio para los cultivos sembrados en el cinturón del maíz y los estados del norte.

Comenzar el riego en el momento adecuado de desarrollo, especialmente a medida que se desarrollan patrones de clima seco, es esencial para optimizar los rendimientos. Las etapas de desarrollo de una planta de soja se dividen en ocho periodos conocidos como R1 a R8.

La primera floración comienza en R1, se ven las semillas en R5, y R8 ocurre cuando el 95% de las vainas han madurado en color. Aquí tienes lo que necesitas saber.

Las etapas R3 a R6 son las más importantes para nuestro propósito. El riego antes de la vegetación no proporciona un beneficio material en el rendimiento. Las etapas de desarrollo de las vainas (R3 y R4) y el llenado de las vainas (R5 y R6) son los periodos de reproducción más críticos. El estrés de la planta durante el desarrollo de las vainas resultará en menos granos de soja y granos de menor tamaño durante el periodo de llenado.

Utilizar sensores de humedad del suelo desde el inicio del ciclo de vida hasta que se complete el llenado de las vainas optimizará el riego para el desarrollo de las plantas. Un aspecto importante a tener en cuenta es familiarizarse con el desarrollo temprano de las raíces. Si hay incertidumbre, una buena regla general es que cualquier deficiencia de humedad durante el R2 es una señal para comenzar el riego.

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02/06/2023

Reservoirs in central Corrientes, Argentina are 90% dry or complete rely. Seasonally, this should be 3.5 meters or 11 ft.

27/05/2023

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25/05/2023

This is the third time since 2011 he has publicly made this threat.

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24/05/2023

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22/05/2023

Governments seem to always find a way to make the problems worse.

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19/05/2023

Easy Newz helping farmers keep the headlines in perspective.

18/05/2023

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17/05/2023

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15/05/2023

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14/05/2023

Happy Mother's Day. Learn about the history of the holiday. Click on the link below from your mobile phone.

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13/05/2023

Highlights from the May WASDE report.

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12/05/2023

Feel Good Friday story from the farm!

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11/05/2023

John Deere assures everyone, it is coming!


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08/05/2023

The trends are fewer owners and larger farms, but a lot of the consolidation has already happened.

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07/05/2023

Here is what you need to know getting ready for the week ahead.

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07/05/2023

Finally some good news…

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03/05/2023

Crude Oil Spotlight May 2, 2023

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02/05/2023

Big oil and big agribusiness are finding themselves on the same side of most issues these days.

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02/05/2023

Brazil and Argentina are transacting in Yuan

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Brazil’s left-wing President Lula’s delayed trip to China was well worth the wait. He made headlines on a number of fronts including the option for companies importing or exporting to use pay or be paid in Yuan. It is an important first step toward a stronger trade pact.

Sergio Massa, the Minister of the Economy, announced Argentina would begin paying in Yuan for all Chinese imports. The government expects the total monthly payments to be just under $800 million. China and Argentina announced an increase in exchange rate swap to $5 billion.

What is unclear is if Argentina’s failing left-wing government is attempting to reduce dollar obligations as default looms. The headlines will appear more than coincidence, but the deals struck are not the same.

China could be extending a lifeline to the Fernandez government, but also reducing its companies’ exposure to the daily devaluations taking place. The Fernandez government is certainly trying to reduce its exposure to dollar shortages as reserves near record lows.

The offshore dollar or Blue Dollar is moving at times greater than 5% a week. Managing this currency risk and oncoming default is tremendously difficult. It will only become more so in the months ahead for both the Argentine government and the Chinese companies.

It is also unclear if this will apply to a wider array of agriculture, energy, livestock, cotton, and food trade.

02/05/2023

Can lab-grown meat compete with traditional farming?

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02/05/2023

Indoor farming and lab-grown meat attracted a lot of investment in recent years, but can they compete with traditional farming?

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30/04/2023

May 1: What to Watch for in the Week Ahead.

Farmers hope Friday’s bounce signals a short-term bottom for agriculture markets as the selling may have finally run out. Technicians are pointing to key reversals and oversold technicals reaching extreme levels. The planting pace could temper any excitement; watch for Monday’s update.

The commitment of traders showed all of the buying in agricultural markets the previous four weeks had been exited by the close of Tuesday with ongoing selling through Friday morning. Speculators are carrying historically large short positions in wheat, lean hogs, oats, rice, and cotton. The sentiment around growth and demand is the worst since the pandemic. Further cancellations or switching away from the USA origin will reinforce the negative outlook.

An important signal late in the week was the rally in Brazilian soybean and corn cash markets. Is harvest far enough along that the spot pressure is finally abating? Argentina’s Soy Dollar is a failure. Farmers have more incentive than ever to hold their crops as a hedge against the falling Peso. Default is a virtual certainty without another IMF-type bail-out.

The EU has reached an agreement transiting Ukrainian grain, but this is just the first fight over more protectionism to come as profitability across the farm sector is falling. Margins in China’s soy crush industry are bouncing as Western values contract. Brazilian soybeans no longer work in the USA or Argentina for new business today.

Rumors Smithfield would be liquidating sows spurred short covering with futures rallying 7% from the lows. Estimates range from 125,000 to 190,000 animals will be culled. It’s unclear what this means for contract growers, and short-term may not be great for the cut-out. Longer-term there is a story building, especially if export sales remain strong.

Sugar traded to the highest level in over a decade, and India will restrict exports to protect domestic supplies. An ethanol story could be a feature in late 2023, as years of underinvestment in sugar production will ensure tight supplies for the remainder of the year. The EU announced all aviation fuel will be green by 2025.

First Republic is the latest bank collapse as the Fed’s rate hikes continue to take their toll. The market expects another 25 points during the upcoming FOMC as earnings season is off to a strong start. Sunday’s First Republic auction will only reinforce that the too-big-to-fail banking model is thriving.

28/04/2023

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25/04/2023

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