The Oscar Watcher

27/01/2024

The Oscar Nominations 2024
Honorable Mentions
BLACKBERRY (AMC+ & VOD)
Dir.- Matt Johnson
'Blackberry' is the anti-'Air'. Everything that 'Air' is, laid-back, small-scale, and personal, even though it's about business wheeling and dealing, 'Blackberry' is not. It is chaotic, brash, and intense; it puts all that business stuff front and center and is very in-your-face about it. While 'Air' tried to get you in the feels, 'Blackberry' takes you on a roller-coaster ride.
Most of this ride is driven by Glenn Howerton's performance. This might be my favorite performance by an actor this year; you could replace any of this year's nominees with him, and I would not complain. Howerton is the driving force behind 'Blackberry'. He manages to be over-the-top but never cartoonish; incredibly dislikable but magnetic. he's everything wrong with American business, but he still makes you root for him to win. As much as I liked the film, it would have been nothing without him.
This doesn't mean the rest of the cast isn't great, too. Jay Baruchel holds his own with Howerton - the dynamic between them reminded me of 1996's 'Swimming with Sharks'. Director Matt Johnson also does a deft comedic turn that borders on ridiculous, if we didn't know that type of guy really did exist in the nascent world of tech. Before the "tech-bro", there were these guys.
The design and feel of the film is very of its time. What 'Air' is to the 80s; 'Blackberry' is to the 90s. It has an incredible 90s soundtrack that sets the time, and a look that recalls films of its era. Hair & Makeup did a fantastic job as well and should have at least been shortlisted over several of the other films that were.
Howerton has been showered with awards from some critics groups and indie film groups, but he and the film were unable to crack the major awards. (Howerton is a nominee in both the Gotham & Film Independent Spirit Awards. I would very much like to see him win there.) 'Blackberry' is as good as any of the other films nominated by the Academy this year. If you haven't seen it yet, give it a watch.

27/01/2024

The Oscar Nominations 2024
Honorable Mentions
AIR (Prime)
Dir.- Ben Affleck

Ben Affleck knows his way around a camera, both in front and behind. His directing style is not flashy, not big and bold, but he gets done what needs to be done for the story he wants to tell. This isn't a surprise, as that's his acting style too. He has only made 5 films in the last 15+ years, but at lease 4 of those are extremely well-made. (I have not seen 'Live by Night" so I can't say whether that is in the same league as the others.) 'Air' tells a different type of story than he usually tells, but his style suits this story to a tee. The 80s production design along with the cinematography, costumes, and music set the time and place perfectly.
'Air' pulls together a fantastic ensemble cast that has been mostly overlooked this awards season. Critics have showed the film a little love, mostly for acting, but industry awards have all but shut it out. That is a crime, because this is one of the better "corporation biopics" that has come out this year. Afflecks easy style fits in well with the laid-back corporate deciscion-making and power-plays of a little Portland company trying to break into the big leagues. 'Succession' this ain't.
The performances across the board were excellent. I didn't care for Affleck's; it's nod bad by any means, but I felt like he was out of place in his own film. Matt Damon and Jason Bateman were great, as usual, but I was really blown away by the performances of Chris Messina, Chris Tucker, and especially Viola Davis. It was inspired to tell the story of the Air Jordan without including Michael himself, at least not in a speaking role. But Davis, as his mother and de facto agent, did the talking for him, and boy, was she a force. I know it was a crowded year for actresses this year, but I can't imagine she wasn't in the top 10, even if she didn't ultimately make the top 5.
Like I said about 'The Iron Claw' yesterday, I think if people seek out find 'Air', they will love it. On it's face, it seems to be a movie about the business of sports, but it's much smaller in scale than you'd expect, and it's powered by a cast of likeable characters who keep you rooting for them, even when they are at odds with each other. 'Air' is not your typical underdog story. They all may have been the little guys, but all along you feel like they are all destined for bigger things. It's unfortunate that didn't translate to nominations.

26/01/2024

The Oscar Nominations 2024
Honorable Mentions
THE IRON CLAW (In Theaters - No digital release date announced) Dir.- Sean Durkin

A24 did 'The Iron Claw' no favors when it came to positioning and promoting this film for the Oscars. Did they not know what they had? Did they not believe in it? It will never make sense to me.
This is one of those films that seems to be tailor-made for Oscar. The true story of a family of professional wrestlers who see great success and suffer greater tragedy. It features performances from two of the hottest young actors working today in Jeremy Allen White & Harris Dickinson; excellent supporting performances from Maura Tierney, Lily James, and especially Holt McCallany; a breakout performance by the young, virtually unknown Stanley Simons; and most importantly, teen heartthrob turned serious actor Zach Efron, who delivered a surprising, emotionally nuanced performance that I wouldn't have believed he had in him. No spoilers, in but the scene near the end with him and his kids, he was emotionally raw, honest, hopeful, devastating, and it was done nearly wordlessly. That scene, along with so many others should have earned him a nomination.
The film is also remarkably well-directed. It seems to straddle the line of mocking the "sport" of professional wrestling, while at the same time, taking it quite seriously. In addition to that balancing act, writer/director Sean Durkin was able to convey the highs and lows this family endures without ever devolving into melodrama. He also managed to make statements about generational trauma and outdated ideas of masculinity & what makes a man, ideas which in lesser hands, could have come across as whining. Instead, he presents the questions and lets the answers speak for themselves.
This was a film I had nearly no interest in during the run-up to the nominations, but it unexpectedly ended up being one of my favorites. I think when people discover this film, it will become a favorite as well. I hope A24 learned a lesson from this film's unfortunate timing. It could've been a contender.

Have you seen 'The Iron Claw'? What did you think? Let's discuss in the comments.

25/01/2024

If you follow my page, you know that between the nominations and the awards ceremonies, I like to talk about the nominees, one per day. This year we have 40 nominees. (I count the Original Song and the Shorts Categories as 1 nominee, each). That leaves 7 days more than there are nominees, so starting tomorrow, I'll talk about some of what I feel are the Honorable Mentions. Let the countdown begin!

24/01/2024

How did everybody do? According to Gold Derby, I predicted 73% correct.
- My biggest misses were the Shorts categories. I went 2 for 5 in all three of them. One day I will figure them out.
- Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Editing, and Makeup & Hairstyling were my perfect scores. I'm really happy I nailed Supporting Actor. It was the category where I felt most that anything could happen.
- Nyad. I just didn't believe it. I should have.
- Saltburn. I believed the rumors about a last-minute surge. I shouldn't have.
- Spider-Man was robbed. It missed every category except Animated Feature. Which brings me to my next point:
- I hate the music branch of The Academy. Just tick the box for Diane Warren and John Williams, no matter how incredibly average the song is or how many better scores are out there. But congrats on taking a big swing with "Wahzhazhe". That was unexpected.
- Leo was not a snub. It just wasn't that good of a performance. There, I said it.
- It was a bad day to be a Greta.
- It was a good day not to be Barbie.
- Some nominees in the specialized features came out of nowhere. Io Capitano? Robot Dreams? To Kill a Tiger? Did anyone predict these? If you did, I have to ask; How?

What did you like?
What did you hate?
What were your biggest surprises?
Let me know in the comments.

23/01/2024

My far-too-late, final Oscar Nominations predictions. I finally got there though, and I am completely doubtful about nearly every category. I have been burned in the past by following the odds; there are always surprises, but I think I may have wish-predicted a lot of these. I'm sticking by them, though, and we'll see what happens.
A few take-aways:
- I'm expecting 'Society of the Snow' to do really well.
- I believe in the rumors of a 'Saltburn' surge. Is this just wishful thinking?
- I have a lot of International films doing well. I hope the momentum of the last few years keeps going.
- Where is 'Origin'? I hope Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor can pull off a "Riseborough" and get in to Best Actress.
- The short Film Categories are prediction-killers. I have my reasons for my pics, but let's be real. It's a crap-shoot. I do hope the shorts branch gate-keeps the big names out of the category.

Will I do worse than usual? Better? We'll know in a few hours.

Thanks to Brother Bro for the images. Get the Award Expert app to make your own Predictions. It's available for both Apple and Android devices.
Play Store - https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.awardspredictionapp
Apple - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/award-expert/id6446135720?platform=iphone

20/01/2024

My final predictions for Best Picture nominations.

06/01/2024

It's January, or Junkuary, as I have heard it called. There is nothing on the schedule that looks like it could be a contender for next year's Oscars. "The Book of Clarence' is the only thing with a shot, but let's face it, that's not going to happen. So here are things to catch up on that could be important to this year's awards. Some of these had limited releases last year, but they are going wide or streaming this month.

SOCIETY OF THE SNOW/LA SOCIEDAD DE LA NIEVE (1/4) International Feature, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Makeup & Hairstyling, Score
Spain's submission to the Academy for international film begins streaming on Netflix in the US. J.A. Bayona's survival story about the 1972 plane crash in the Andes is based on a book by Uruguayan journalist Pablo Vierci, who documented the accounts of all of the survivors. If this is even half as good as Bayona's 'The Impossible', it should be riveting. The film did well in the shortlists, and I expect to see a nomination - maybe more than one.

THE ZONE OF INTEREST (1/12) Best Picture, International Feature, Director, Supporting Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score, Sound
Jonathan Glazer's haunting portrayal of N**i commandant Rudolf Höss' family life, just outside the gates of Auschwitz is getting a wide(r) release in January. This film will likely get multiple nominations, so do not miss this.

ORIGIN (1/19) Best Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Sound, Score
Ava DuVernay's study on the origins of hate is not getting a lot of buzz. In fact, it's getting none at all. Even Stan Walker's song from the film, "I AM", missed the shortlist. Did it come out too late? Will the buzz pick up once it is released? It would be strange if this film got nothing at all, but it's starting to look that way.

THE PEASANTS (1/26) Animated Feature
Poland's submission for International Feature didn't make the shortlist, but its not over yet. 'The Peasants' is an animated film, done with the same painted technique that scored the creators a nomination in 2018 for their film 'Loving Vincent'. It's not likely, as the animated feature category is stacked this year, some films with equally ground-breaking visual styles, but it could sneak in. The Academy does love this kind of thing.

TÓTEM (1/26) International Feature
I really don't know much about this film, other than that it was directed by Lila Avilés, the director of 2018's excellent 'The Chambermaid'. It was chosen as Mexico's submission to the Academy, and it made the shortlist.

FREUD'S LAST SESSION (1/?) Actor
It seems that Sony is slow rolling this film. It opened in NY & LA just before Christmas, and it is slowly gaining markets week by week. I am not hearing any Oscar buzz about this film, but as Steven Soderbergh found out at Union Station in 2021, never bet against Sir Anthony Hopkins.

05/01/2024

These are the films I am most looking forward to in the upcoming year. This is by no means every film I am looking forward to seeing, just the ones I really can't wait for. Plus these are the ones that we know are being released this year (we hope). There will be others announced that will shoot to the top of the list, but we don't know about those yet.

THE SETTLERS/LOS COLONOS (1/12) - Chile had a great year in film last year, but of all the films that were released, this is the one they submitted to the Academy. It didn't make the shortlist, but I still want to see it. 'The Settlers' is a modern Western about colonialism. This made the rounds at all the major festivals. It looks fantastic.

THE BOOK OF CLARENCE (1/12) - This is one I am more curious about than anything. It's kind of a reverse 'Life of Brian'; instead of a normal guy getting thrust into the spotlight after being mistaken for The Messiah, Clarence is a nobody who wants in on that Messiah action. I love the premise, and I can watch LaKeith Stanfield in anything, so I hope this is good. It has a fantastic cast, so I hope they get this right.

ORION AND THE DARK (2/2) - Charlie Kaufman (yes, that Charlie Kaufman) doing an animated film for kids. Based on the book of the same name, it is about a boy who is afraid of the dark, until he meets The Dark and goes on a nighttime adventure. I'm in!

DRIVE-AWAY DOLLS (2/23) - This is another I am more curious about. This was shifted to this year, probably due to the strikes, and is the first solo film from Ethan Cohen. It is a crime comedy about a couple of le****ns, (the film's original title was 'Drive-Away D***s'), who run afoul of some inept criminals. The terrific ensemble cast should knock this out of the park; Margaret Qualley, Pedro Pascal, Matt Damon, Colman Domingo, Beanie Feldstein and more!

DUNE: PART 2 (3/1) - Another casualty of the strikes, the conclusion to Denis Villeneuve's spectacular epic is almost here. This is the first time I have been able to get into this story; everything came together for me. I know a lot of people found Part 1 boring. I can't understand that point of view, but I don't think they'll have the same complaint this time around.

SPACEMAN (3/1) - Another curiosity. 'Spaceman' is a timey-wimey sci-fi, starring Adam Sandler in the title role. It seems like it's going to be more emotionally grounded than out-there science fiction, The supporting cast, Carey Mulligan, Paul Dano, Lena Olin, & Isabella Rossellini alone is worth showing up for.

MICKEY 17 (3/29) - I am a big fan of certain directors, and B**g Joon-Ho is one that I always watch out for. Even his worst films are better than most, so I am absolutely intrigued by this. I know nothing about it, except that it stars Robert Pattinson, and I intend to keep it that way.

FURIOSA: A MAD MAX STORY (5/24) - I have loved Mad Max since the first movie. 'Road Warrior' is an all-time favorite, and 'Fury Road" was as close to that film as it could be. It's one of my top films of the 2000s. I hope this expands the universe in a good way. I don't want another 'Thunderdome'. It's got everything going for it. Please, George Miller, don't screw it up.

FIREBRAND (6/21) - I'm a sucker for historical fiction, and the War of the Roses/Tudor Period is one of the most fascinating periods of history, and it's real-world drama is ripe for film adaptations. There have been great films about this period, and some that are not-so-great. Jude Law & Alicia Vikander play Henry VIII and Katherine Parr (wife #6). I hope this rises above the typical historical drama, but even if it doesn't, I can watch Vikander in pretty much anything.

A QUIET PLACE: DAY 1 (6/28) - This is the first 'Quiet Place' film without John Krazinsky & Emily Blunt. I loved that they threw us into a situation that already existed and no explanation was necessary. Here, we are going to see the explanation. This is either going to be a brilliant beginning to a long-running franchise, or it's going to crash & burn. I can't wait to see which way it goes.

DEADPOOL 3 (7/26) - Will this be the return of the comic book movie, or the final nail in its coffin. Either it is going to kick-start the genre, or it will be the last great one and the beginning of the end. Either way, this one will be one to watch, It's going to be a hell of a lot of fun.

ALIEN: ROMULUS (8/16) - The Alien franchise has never been as good as its first entry. 'Aliens' is a great film, too, but it doesn't have that once-in-a-lifetime coming together of forces that created my favorite film of all time. Since 'Aliens", though, the films have gotten progressively worse. 'Romulus' will be a stand-alone film set between 'Alien" & 'Aliens'. Ridley Scott in not here, but that could be a good thing. I am not a fan of 'Prometheus' or 'Covenant'. I hope this will be a new modern classic like the first two were, but I'm not holding my breath.

BEETLEJUICE 2 (9/6) - A lot of the original cast are back, including Winona Ryder, Catherine O'Hara, and most importantly, Michael Keaton. Tim Burton is also back to direct. I will not miss this. Fingers crossed.

JOKER: FOLIE A DEUX (10/4) - I am so confused by this one. I loved the first 'Joker', and I loved how Todd Phillips used 'The King of Comedy', a film I love, as its inspiration. For the sequel, he adds Lady Gaga as Harley Quinn, the inspiration is supposedly 'New York, New York', a film I don't love. I am also concerned about the music. I hope he can pull it off; if he does, this will be a juggernaut.

NOSFERATU (12/25) - Now this is my kind of Christmas. One of my favorite directors, Robert Eggers, doing a new version of the classic vampire story, with a stellar cast, including Willem Dafoe in a meta role, (In 'Shadow of the Vampire', he played Max Schreck the actor who was the original Count Orlock in the 1922 'Nosferatu). I know it's barely even over, but I can't wait for Christmas!

What are you dying to see this year?

02/01/2024

My top films of 2023. These are all the films I rated higher than 4 Stars on Letterboxd. I expect this list will grow, once I am able to see some of the end-of-year films that only opened in limited release, but are coming soon to a theater near me - hopefully to one near you too.
What were some of your favorites?

01/01/2024

Hope everyone has a safe and happy New Year! 🥳

29/12/2023

I've listened to the shortlisted songs a few times now. It's not my favorite category, as I think it needs a major overhaul. But I do have some thoughts.

1. "It Never Went Away" (American Symphony) Academy darling Jean Batiste won an Oscar for his work on 'Soul'; this year's documentary about him was shortlisted, along with this song. Expect it to be nominated.
2. "I'm Just Ken" (Barbie) 3 songs shortlisted, 2 songs can be nominated, but I believe only this one will snag a spot. The Academy does seem to like Billie Eilish, though, so I wouldn't be surprised, but a bit disappointed, if her song gets a spot.
3. "Road to Freedom" (Rustin) I don't see how the Academy can pass up giving a spot to Lenny Kravitz for this rousing song from the civil rights drama.
4. "The Fire Inside" (Flamin' Hot) Diane Warren will likely score a nom for yet another bland, formulaic, "inspirational" song about being the best you can be. There are songs in this list that are much more deserving of a spot. I hope I am wrong about this nomination.
5. "Keep It Moving" (The Color Purple) I think one of the two songs will make the cut, and I hope it's this one. Not only do I think it's the better song, but it was actually in the film, not just played over the credits. But will the Academy give the spot to the song NOT sung by Fantasia?

Those are my predictions. I do have a couple of other thoughts.
- "Am I Dreaming" (Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse) This is the best song on the list. It should take the place of the Diane Warren song. It should win the whole thing. I hope I'm wrong, and it does make the top 5.
- "Dear Alien (Who Art in Heaven)" (Asteroid City) How did this song get shortlisted? If they wanted to shortlist a joke song, "Peaches" was right in front of them. "Peaches" was robbed. There; I said it.
- John Carney's films have done pretty well in the past. A song from 'Once' won in 2007, and 'Begin Again' had one nominated in 2014. Sadly, 'Sing Street' criminally missed a nomination. I fear 'Flora and Son' will also miss out.
- "Wahzhazhe" (Killers of the Flower Moon) is an interesting choice. I don't think it has a shot at a nomination, but I am glad it's in the conversation.
- Everything else is pretty middle-of-the-pack. I'd be surprised if any of them get one of the coveted spots.

What do you think? If you want to listen to the songs, I have a Spotify playlist here:
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/2Q9IFP6uEuXq98It6qOK4a?si=AQsObLDiRsCfc14oDmq0dQ&pi=u-PitlYFjJRcqN

27/12/2023

Here's a good resource for the Short Films, for those who want to see the shortlisted films and/or can't wait until the Shorts Programs are released in February. All of the shortlisted short films are listed here, and the list will be updated throughout the season as they become available to watch online. Bookmark this page!

The Oscar shortlists are here! Find out which short films made the cut and where you can watch them on Short of the Week.

26/12/2023

My Christmas Day double feature. Did you go to the movies today? What did you see?

22/12/2023

Not many surprises. I'll dig into these over the next week.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10, 2024.

20/12/2023

TCM gets this right every year.
Take note, The Academy.

To those we lost, thanks for your amazing work. It will live on.

We say goodbye to the performers, filmmakers, and creatives we lost in 2023. Through their art and storytelling they soared to new heights and kept us ground...

20/12/2023

Oscar Shortlists announcement tomorrow!

13/12/2023

The International Documentary Association announced their winners yesterday. No single film won more than one award. Look for most, if not all of these to show up on the Oscar shortlists next week.
- Best Feature - BOBI WINE: THE PEOPLE'S PRESIDENT
- Best Director - THE MOTHER OF ALL LIES
- Best Cinematography - SMOKE SAUNA SISTERHOOD
- Best Editing - THE ETERNAL MEMORY
- Best Score - ANSELM
- Best Writing - FOUR DAUGHTERS

02/12/2023

I missed November, and there were a lot of films to watch for. There are a lot of high-profile films to look out for in December too. Also, the IDA Documentary Awards are on the 12th, and the Academy Shortlists will be announced on the 21st. That will narrow things down a bit.

PIANOFORTE - (12/1) Documentary Feature
I watched this film as an IDA member, and it was a favorite of their Fall Docs. It is a behind-the-scenes look at the International Chopin Piano Competition. Taking place in Poland every 5 years., the competition features some of the world's most talented pianists, as they navigate the prestigious competition. This premiered back at Sundance, but I haven't been hearing any buzz about it. Hopefully it will sneak in.

THE BOY AND THE HERON - (12/8) Animated Feature
When I saw 'Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse" earlier this year, I thought it would be a shoe-in to win for Animated Feature and maybe even pick up a Best picture nom; if only Hayao Miyazaki hadn't come out of retirement to make one final film. As it turns out, this won't be his final film, and from most accounts, it is not his best work. Spider-Man's chances are greatly improved. Don't count Miyazaki out completely, though. This will no doubt be nominated.

ANSELM - (12/8) Documentary Feature
Wim Wenders heads up this documentary about contemporary German artist Anselm Kiefer. This is a doc you will want to see in a theater. It was shot in 6K & 3D, so it will no-doubt look amazing on a big screen. Wenders also has a narrative film this year, "Perfect Days', which was Japan's submission for International Feature. Can Wenders score a nomination for both categories?

ORIGIN - (12/8) - Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Make-up & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Score
So far, a nomination Ava DuVernay's latest feature has seemed just out of reach, but I am starting to hear the buzz building. This could blow-up when it opens. The scope and ambition of this project is huge. I am hoping for the best on opening, and hopefully, Neon will give it a big push. This seems tailor-made for Oscar

POOR THINGS - (12/8) - Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Make-up & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Score
Already a frontrunner, not only for a Best Picture nomination, but also the win. We'll see if that holds, but as of now, the stars are all aligning. I think we will definitely see nominations for all of the technical categories, and I'm pretty sure we will see some for acting, writing, and directing too. It's also sure to get Picture. But can it win? Normally, I would say it's too weird for the Academy, but after last year, anything can happen.

WONKA - (12/15) - Costume Design, Production Design, Make-up & Hairstyling, Visual Effects, Score, Original Song
It's been a roller coaster of a year for "Wonka". First it was highly anticipated, then it was said to be a mess, now reviews are coming in, and they're mostly good. Don't expect to see any of the big categories, but it could easily pick up a couple of techs and maybe song too.

AMERICAN FICTION - (12/15) - Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Screenplay
The breakout hit of TIFF is sure to get some Oscar love. And who wouldn't want to see Jeffrey Wright get nominated for an Oscar? I think its odds of getting nominations are pretty high, but the odds of winning are a different story.

CHICKEN RUN: DAWN OF THE NUGGET - (12/15) Animated Feature
Almost a quarter century has passed since Aardman gave us the original 'Chicken Run'. It wasn't nominated back then because, well, there wasn't a category for Animated Feature then. There was a push to get it a Best Picture nomination, and it has been said that "Chicken Run' was important in the Academy's decision to create the category the following year. Will the wrongs of yesteryear be righted this year? I think a nomination is assured.

THE ZONE OF INTEREST - (12/15) - Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Score, Sound
I have yet to see this film, but it sounds like it is equal parts horrific & fascinating. I have not felt such uneasy anticipation of a film since I was a teenager seeing 'The Exorcist' for the first time. It is the story of a family living their lives outside the walls of Auschwitz during WWII. The sound design is what I think I am most anxious about. I am not sure if this will be too unsettling for the Academy or if they will eat it up. I think it will be the latter.

MIGRATION - (12/22) Animated Feature
When I was an animation student, I saw the documentary, 'Winged Migration'; (an amazing film, if you've never seen it). I immediately thought it would make a fantastic animated film. Life took me a different way, but I'm glad someone had the same idea and got it made. I hope this lives up to the ideas I had in my head. It does look like a lot of fun. It's a crowded category, though, so it will have to be pretty special to break into the pack of nominations.

AQUAMAN AND THE LOST KINGDOM - (12/22) Visual Effects, Sound, Make-up & Hairstyling
Don't watch for much here. Maybe we could see some A/V tech awards, but that's about it. The first one cleared a billion dollars, so the Academy will take notice. I'm not sure that will be enough.

ALL OF US STRANGERS - (12/22) Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay
I think Andrew Scott is this film's best chance at a nomination. But it could see more if the rest of the performances are memorable. If it should get two or more acting noms, it could score Best Picture too. If not, we may have a repeat of 'Aftersun', with Scott getting the sole nomination, as his co-star Paul Mescal did last year.

THE IRON CLAW - (12/22) Actor, Supporting Actor, Original Song
It's a longshot, but the Academy does love transformations, and Zach Efron is not the pretty boy he is known for here. They also like when young actors with a frivoulous film history get serious. There's some other up-and-coming acting heavyweights here too, but I don't expect nominations for them.

FREUD'S LAST SESSION - (12/22) Actor
This is my longest shot of the month. I think I have it here because it has been a contender all year, mostly due to Sir Anthony's involvement. And who knows? Maybe when it is released, it will get more attention; it could be great. The competition is going to be tough, but never count Hopkins out.

THE COLOR PURPLE - (12/25) - Picture, Director, Actress, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay, Editing, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Make-up & Hairstyling, Sound, Score, Original Song
Look for 'The Color Purple' to walk away with a ton of nominations, especially if it turns out to be as good as I am hearing it is. It's coming out after the shortlist announcement, so I hope the Academy members watched their screeners. By the way, it's a musical, in case you watched the trailer and didn't know. (Why are studios trying to disguise their musicals as dramas in the trailers?)

THE TEACHER'S LOUNGE - (12/25) International Feature (Germany)
I've heard nothing but good about this film, which premiered at the Berlin International Film Festival. It's Germany's submission, and I'm sure it will make the shortlist for International Film. If it does, I expect a nomination to follow.

We're getting close. Let me know what you think.