20/12/2020
How fast will Americans get a COVID-19 vaccine? It’ll depend on how fast they actually manufacture them, how fast they can actually distribute them, and how the government categorizes us.
6 companies have made deals with the government, for a total of 800 million. However, Novavax and Sanofi won’t be ready to produce their vaccine till April and Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca won’t submit their vaccines for approval until February. Moderna and Pfizer have each shown impressive data in terms of effectiveness and safety but it remains to be seen if the others will pass scientific and FDA scrutiny.
We also have to talk about logistical issues that could slow down distribution significantly. The vaccines require delicate cold storage that will be expensive and hard to provide en masse. Believe it or not, experts are worried about a dry ice shortage. And then there’s the difficult part of administering the vaccines, organizing the drives, recruiting, etc. On top of this, these vaccines will be 2 doses spaced a month apart. Imagine the difficulty of getting people to remember to come back, tracking who gets the first dose, etc.
Even with all of these concerns, the US government and healthcare providers are dedicated to pulling off this truly unprecedented campaign to end the pandemic. We may have failed at prevention, safety measures, and protecting the poor and high-risk population, but we can still appreciate this for what it could be: a breathtaking achievement. Distributing the vaccine won’t be immediate; it’ll take 12 months for all the reasons above. The vaccine will first go out to healthcare workers, then nursing homes with elderly, then essential workers, then people with existing health risks, then all adults over 66, then to the 67 million Americans remaining.
We know many people will die in between now and October of 2021, right before the war is almost over. All of these next steps are tentative, and this may be longer than you were expecting, but the end is in sight. Let’s continue to be safe in the meantime, encourage our community to get the vaccine, and push lawmakers to equitably and swiftly scale the distribution efforts.