05/11/2024
Badenoch-Houchen
Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Hard times for Badenoch as she tries to make cabinet appointments given that the available talent pool is little more than a puddle these days. So, what are we to make of this report in Politico yesterday morning?
"Hold your horses: Two people tell Playbook a report that Badenoch had offered the job of deputy to Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen was premature."
Either: Badenoch never asked him, and it’s just fevered speculation by journalists/Tory activists
Or: She asked, and Houchen more or less politely declined the offer
Given that Houchen is now the only Tory in power, it would be a surprise if Badenoch hadn’t at least given the idea of bringing him into the shadow cabinet some consideration. If she hasn’t, then Houchen has been snubbed (which may turn out to be a missed opportunity for her).
So, we have to look at the other option, that Houchen was asked and refused. Why would he do that?
In the first place there is the matter of policy, net zero for example. Badenoch is against, while Houchen has staked at least 50% of his reputation on rebuilding Teesside’s economy on the back of it.
Also, Houchen keeps well away from political controversy (except where it’s of his own making) while Badenoch does not. Join her cabinet, and automatically you become her apologist. That could be a tough call for any aspiring monarch-maker.
But whether or not maintaining a distance from Badenoch is a smart move possibly depends less on her than it does on the outcome of the US election. If Trump loses, she remains a belligerent voice in the background of British politics, hot under the collar on issues that are fairly low on most other people’s agenda, a voice that will lead her party to resounding defeat in the 2029 GE.
A Trump victory, on the other hand, shifts the whole landscape, lending credibility (and support, and probably funding) to right wing figures everywhere. Without lifting a finger, she may become a force to be reckoned with, and those who have kept her at arm’s length will be left out in the cold.
In one respect, however, Houchen’s absence from the Tory cabinet (if that is what transpires) is a failure of leadership on Badenoch’s part. The government is procrastinating over the proper investigation into his conduct at the TVCA. She could easily have turned their indecision to her own advantage by presenting Houchen as an asset to her party. Once in the shadow cabinet, any investigation into Houchen and the TVCA commissioned by the government just starts to look vindictive and partisan.
Two days in the job for Badenoch and a significant opportunity may have been missed already. Perhaps Wednesday will bring her better news.