Catskill Adirondack Snow Forecast (2024)

10/02/2020

Storm for Monday 2/10

A small low pressure system is bringing moisture into the area tonight and into tomorrow. The NWS has issued winter weather warnings for several areas in the Adirondacks and Catskills.
The Catskills will probably be the winners as far as total liquid is concerned, but also have the biggest threats for changeover Monday morning.
The Adirondack park should get into the 3-6” range with the possibility for a little more in a few localized areas. Places to the West will be the most likely for a changeover to rain or mix precip. but the majority seems to be snow for the entire region.
The Catskills will be anywhere from an inch with localized amount possibly near 8” in the highest elevations. These amounts will be contingent on cold air staying in place which I think should happen. We have cold air in the upper atmosphere, and cold air at ground level. The new snowpack should help the colder air to stay in place, and the heavier precipitation should help drive colder air down into the lower levels. The NAM and HRRR Mesoscale radar outlooks have both areas staying cold enough for snow in the higher elevations of both ranges. (Fig. 1,2)

Extended Forecast.
The models are showing some interesting things. There are a few low pressure systems developing that will hopefully impact the area over the coming days and weeks.
As you can see below in Figures 3&4, both the CMC and GFS have a significant storm developing and impacting the region later in the week, so we’ll have to keep an eye on that after this storm for tomorrow is wrapped up.
The NOAA has issued their Climate precip and temp forecasts. Figure 5 shows above average precipitation for NY over the next 2 weeks. I will note they also have us slightly above average for temperatures, but that doesn’t necessarily mean rain. You can see in figure 6 there is still above average sea surface temps in most of The Eastern Atlantic as well as The GoM, in my experience, warm seas mean warm storms. Hopefully I’m wrong.

Storm Recap.
This was a tricky one to forecast and with travel I didn’t have a ton of time to focus on this one. This storm outperformed the models in many cases with places like Gore getting 16” and Whiteface 20” The Catskills came in around forecast with 1-5” after a lot of heavy rain.
I was touring off the summit of Gore Mtn. Yesterday and there were places where the snow was beyond waist deep. The snowpack is deepest in Warren, Essex, and Hamilton Counties.

09/02/2020

The Native Americans called this The Snow Moon for a reason.
New post up later today for tomorrow’s sttorm, extended forecast, and recap of this weekends storm.
Stay tuned, winters not done yet...

CJ

02/02/2020

50/50 shot for a significant snow event for NY, but almost definitely will several waves of precipitation over the next week.

After spending last week on the west coast, I quickly came to realize we aren’t the only ones having a troubling winter season. Places like Summit County, CO and the Northern Rockies have been able to hover close to average, but most everyone else is struggling with above average temps and high elevation rain.

We will see a small disturbance of snow or mixed precipitation today - Monday 2/3 with little to no accumulating snow. Maybe up to 2” in spots

Tuesday Evening/Night
We should see the first wave of precipitation move into the Adirondacks sometime the second half of Tuesday the 4th. It looks right now to be several consecutive waves of precipitation moving across Upstate NY going into the weekend of the 8th.
I’ve already seen the local news hyping a major snow event for our area this week, and they may not be wrong.
It’s about a 50/50 split on the models right now on where the storm tracks. As you can see in Figure 1 and 2 The Canadian model has a few very large waves of all snow for both The Adirondacks and The Catskills, very similar to The GFS (GFS is wetter). However The Euro, which has been the more accurate model so far this season has the storm developing much further inland, meaning almost all rain for NY.
Figure 3 is the total accumulated snowfall projection from The Euro, showing only a coating to 2” for The Catskills and up to 6” for the Adirondacks. If you look at Figure 4 you can see the L far west of our region and almost a large moisture plume flowing directly into CNY.

The GFS has been notoriously bad at predicting liquid amounts this season across the entire nation. After speaking to my mentor in Lake Tahoe last week The GFS is basically of his radar in terms of total liquid amounts. There a few other models showing a similar setup as the GFS, and really The Euro is the outlier with the most Westerly storm track.
The second thing I don’t like with this system is the models have been consistently showing multiple lows developing, they have all been flip flopping with every single run. (New model runs are released every 6 hrs. 12,6,12,6 etc) For example, yesterday the models were the complete opposite with the GFS and Euro in agreement for a coastal track, and the CMC being the outlying Westerly track.
We will have to watch the models over the next couple of days and see who trend towards who, to get a better idea of what to expect. If the storm does track along the coast we could see multiple waves of heavy snowfall for the entire region, but that doesn’t seem to be the trend for this season, so don’t load up the sleds or wax your skis just yet.

CJ

23/01/2020

Not what we like to see this time of year.

The models have come into better agreement over the last 24 hours on the track for this weekends storm. Unfortunately, it’s not the track we like to see for snowfall in upstate NY. We are still however, a few days out so anything can change.

High pressure in the Southwest and Gulf of Mexico are forcing warm air to the north, and likely influencing the track of our storm for the weekend. The current track looks to be more inland than we hoped for, allowing warm air to spin up from the south ahead of the storm. A more coastal track would spin cold air in from the Atlantic to create an all snow event, so where the center or the storm tracks will determine what type of precipitation we receive. You can see in Figure 1 the L is pretty far inland and locked in a mass of warm air, as it approaches the coast near MA or CT cold air will cycle into the area and change over to mix, then snow.

Both the Euro GFS and Canadian models have some accumulating snow piling up for both Mtn ranges of upstate NY. As of right now it looks like the storm will start with rain or mixed precipitation transitioning to snow as the storm moves out to the coast. Taking an average of all the models I’d say early estimates are 3-8” for the Adirondacks, heavier amounts look to be in the southern Adirondacks/Sacandaga Lake region.

The Catskills could receive anywhere from a coating to 3”.

This is a tricky one to forecast because everything will depend on two factors, 1 where the Low pressure system tracks, and 2, when the cold air works in and transitions to all snow. Keep in mind these are early estimates of the storm tracks further East, totals would be much higher.

Figure 2 is the ECMWF forecast model 06z run, you can see a second L forming NW of The Great Lakes. If this scenario plays out and the storms take a track that is even slightly further East and or South, it could be a very different scenario for the region.

Figure 3 is the ECMWF total Snowfall projected.

Figure 4 is the GFS projection for Sunday, you can see the cold air finally cycling in and forcing the transition to snow.

As the storm approaches our region over the next 36 hours we’ll have a much better idea of where the storm is tracking and what of these possible scenarios are most likely to play out.

CJ

22/01/2020

The models have taken a bit of a turn on this weekends storm, so I’ll post my forecast later this evening as some more information becomes available. For now expect some measurable snowfall for the region in the latter half of the weekend.

CJ

21/01/2020

Quick update for the weekend storm 1/26-1/28

We have a large area of low pressure approaching the area for this weekend. This will likely produce higher totals than we’ve seen with the last couple of systems.

A new pattern is setting up with multiple storms tracking for the NE in the coming 10 days.
There is still quite a bit of disagreement among the models for how much snow will fall and where. There is a few different scenarios in play that will determine, ultimately where the larger bands set up. I’m going to keep this post brief with a few images to help get an idea of what’s on the table. The one thing for sure is the storm is slow moving and has warmer air associated with it, than the previous two. It’s also wetter than the last two so the possibility is definitely there for a major snow event for parts of NY. I won’t post any totals outside of a 5 day window, I’ll take a look at what’s available for information and draw up a forecast for the morning.

Figure 1 is the ECMWF (Euro) projection for Sunday 6 AM. Note the large green/yellow crescent jutting down into the Atlantic. This is a substantial moisture tap feeding heavy amounts of liquid into the storm, and it’s pointed directly at The Catskills. As you’ll notice in figure 3 the Euro is MUCH wetter than the GFS This is due to the track of the storm. In figure 1 you can see the L tracking right up the coast, an Ideal set up for upstate NY.

Figure 2 shows the GFS total snowfall at 10:1 SLR by mid day Monday. You can see the majority of snowfall piling up on the Catskills and Berkshires, but amounts quickly tapering as you head North and East of the Catskill Mountains. The GFS is still showing some respectable totals in areas around and North of The Great Sacandaga Lake. Remember we are still 6 days out and it’s the computers guess of where the storm will set up.

Figure 3 is the ECMWF total accumulated snowfall by midday Monday. You can see much higher totals for all areas especially The Adirondacks. Again this is still 7-8 days out so this data will likely change between now and Saturday.

Long Range;
There is another significant area of low pressure tracking not far behind this weekends storm. We’ll keep an eye on what happens out west in the coming days to see if we can get a storm train going and caught up for the season.

I’ll have a more detailed post tomorrow morning with expected totals and some more details on individual regions and the storm for next week.

CJ

20/01/2020

Storm Recap Sunday 1/19. Some things in our favor. Don’t be discouraged, and if you were let down this weekend, give us a chance!

Well Sunday’s storm came in right at the low end of the forecast. With a few exceptions. My official forecast was 8-14 for the ADK Mtns. Places like Old Forge, Lake Placid, and Bleecker all came in with 8”. Gore, West, and others came in around 7” so just below. Keep in mind 8-14 does not mean 8-14 inches will fall depending on location, it simply means you can expect to see an accumulation, somewhere in that range. The Catskills were right on target. My forecast was for 2-5” and places like Bellayre, Windham, and Hunter received 4”.
I saw many outlets in panic mode Saturday and forecast numbers went through the roof. Places South of the Adirondacks were as high as 16”. This, honestly, was never a possibility. I said in my most recent post if you read closely, “this storm looks to be a bit wetter than Thursday’s(1/16) storm, but not a ton.” Most places saw a slight increase in totals as compared to Thursday with a few places receiving similar amounts. One thing I did NOT account for was the dry air in place, it really had an influence on snow continuing throughout the morning on Monday. So, lesson learned.

Forecast 1/21-1/27

Ok well as I’m sure many of you have already heard the hype train on the storm for this weekend. I’ve already seen predictions of 30+” for CNY, everybody calm down. That being said there’s a few positives we have going for us right now so let’s get into them.

In one of my recent posts I mention the MJO and the influence it has on our weather. The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a stream of high altitude air that drives major storms into the west in its more progressive phases. These storms typically follow the jet stream into the south, refuel in the Gulf of Mexico, and continue north, if they collide with cold air from Canada, then that is our typical “blizzard” setup for the area. If these storms track up the coast and are strong enough to vortex, then it becomes the Nor’easters that we all know and love.

Factor 1

In figure 1 you can see massive amounts of liquid being shot into western North America. This is likely caused by the progressive MJO. Historically, some of the largest events for the NE occurred in the later phases of the MJO (5 6 7). In Jan the MJO went into phase 6 and fired up the first measurable snow for upstate since Dec 4th.

Factor 2
Many people are unaware that upstate NY statistically has a 35 day window for big storms. The most likely time of winter to receive major snowfall is the 35 day window around Feb 21. Of course major snowstorms do occur outside of this window, however, dating back to the 1930’s this window has received far and away the most snowfall for upstate NY as a whole. We are approaching this window now so statistically big storms in the coming weeks are fairly common. I’m very big on historical data when it comes to weather, you’ll find that more often than not any region will come into character at some point during winter. Hence the stats.

Factor 3
A weaker Polar Vortex
We’ve all heard of the dreaded Polar Vortex, and it’s used in a misleading way on the news. A strong PV is why we’ve had such a mild January. The PV, when strong, locks cold air in a tight circular pattern above the North Pole, when weaker, tentacles of cold can breach the vortex and are flung southward into our region. As the days get longer and the northern hemisphere gets sunnier, the vortex weakens, like we’ve seen over the past week or so with frigid air funneling down from Canada. I know it’s counter intuitive 🤦‍♂️

Factor 4
Sea Surface Anomoly
While water off the coast of NE is fairly normal (about 5C above) right now, the water in the GoM has cooled (Figure 2) hopefully cooler water when combined with larger storms coming across the plains will generate some good snowfall for the NE. In Figure 3 you can see a large trough over the Gulf of Alaska with high pressure over the East. This patter should shift with a weaker HP ridge building in over the west later this week. Typically that would mean a trough for the NW Atlantic, and stormy conditions for the NE.

Factor 5
Model Consensus.
While not all models are showing a major all snow even for NY at the moment. There are many different models and types of forecast prediction intelligence. Climate models, that predict patterns beyond 16 days, are lining up with SR forecast models for a stormy pattern starting sometime at the end of the month. Mesoscale models can act as a check system on larger storms, while they don’t actually predict storms or pressure levels, they have some useful info for verifying the Forecast models accuracy. This seems to be the case right now. I like to take an average of all the info the models are providing, and for a uniform forecast based on all available information. This IS NOT a common practice, I do this because I love it and just figured I should share the info with anyone interested. I’m doing this either way because I want to know when it will snow and how much, jotting it down makes it easier to organize my thoughts so, this really is an effortless byproduct.

I’ll update again this evening with a detailed outlook on the coming week and beyond, I just wanted to offer some positive information after I feel many people were let down by the weekends storm. If that’s you, I’m here to help!

CJ

16/01/2020

Recap from Thursday 1/16 And Forecast - Monday 1/20

Snow started late last night in the Adirondacks. Some heavier bands set up over the Adirondacks last night and early this morning. Snowfall totals seem to be right on forecast with 3-6” falling across the mountains. Some areas south and west of the Adirondacks saw anywhere from a coating to 3”. Gore Mtn and Whiteface received the high end of their forecast with 6-7”.
This clipper system didn’t reach far enough south for significant snow in the Catskills so they came in under forecast. With some mixing precipitation. However, some remnant snow is firing up in the Catskills this afternoon and some accumulation maybe possible.
Winds have been picking up throughout the day and temps will be dropping as the storm moves out of the area. Some areas to the West and North may receive additional snow showers from lake effect this evening.

Weekend Storm 1/18-1/19

The secondary low doesn’t seem to be developing along with the low coming across the Great Lakes Saturday morning. This would develop a much larger band of heavy snow across the region, So we’ll keep and eye out as we are still a few days away so a lot can change.
The storm for Saturday/Sunday looks to be taking a similar track to the storm today. It seems to be wetter and colder than today’s clipper, but not a ton. This storm should still however produce measurable snow for the entire region. There’s still a lot up in the air, and some more details to be worked out but as of now here’s what we can expect;

Timing; Snow develops for the entire region sometime Saturday afternoon heavy bands of snow will develop for the Adirondacks, Catskills, and surrounding hill towns. Heavy snow will continue into Sunday morning, tapering off into the later half of the day. Keep in mind this type of storm often produces up-slope snow showers, as well as lake effect showers as the storm leaves the area. Many areas North and West as well as higher elevations may receive additional snowfall Monday. Travel Saturday evening and Sunday morning will be difficult. If you’re planning to head out for some winter activities Sunday Monday will be the days. Remember it’s a holiday weekend so expect larger than usual crowds and traffic.

Ok now the interesting part, Totals.
Adirondacks right now look to be somewhere in the 8-14” range by the time everything wraps up On Monday. If you want to hit the trails the western half of the Adirondacks/Tug Hill will likely be the winners in this one. If you’re hitting the slopes, Places like Gore, McCauley, Royal, and Whiteface should have the highest totals. Be ready for crowds at resorts and trailheads/parking areas.

Catskills are a little trickier, there maybe be a period of warmer air and some mixed precipitation mixing in so we’ll have to watch. As for now it looks like the 3-5” range with a chance for mixed precip in the early morning on Sunday.

Remember there is still a chance for a secondary low to develop, which could stream more more moisture into the NE, although confidence at this point is low.

Extended Forecast;

The current pattern looks like it will hold on for a while longer. The ensemble runs of the models which give predictions beyond 16 days show the large trough in the NW Atlantic with high pressure ridging in the PNW. This would support a continuation of cold stormy weather for the NE.

I’ll adjust totals if we get any new information tonight for Tomorrow’s forecast. Until then enjoy the fresh coating!

CJ

15/01/2020

Quick Update for Thursday Storm

Thursday 1/16;

The models haven’t changed much since yesterday with the exception of a few outliers, like the Canadian and Japanese. The wettest scenario is also the coldest and that’s the Canadian. The Canadian model ECMWF and now most recently the GFS have lined up to have all snow for the Catskills and Adirondacks. All the models are still showing the storm start as rain/mix precip west of the Catskills. However, we will have to wait and see how Far East the warmer air pushes. You can see in figure 1 the projected snow accumulation from now until Friday morning. These are displayed in a 10:1 SLR we are expecting closer to 13-14:1 depending on the region. Everywhere under “Color” (figure 1) should have snow on the ground Friday morning. Timing looks to be Early Thursday for Cats n Dacks so be prepared for delays and travel issues tomorrow morning.

Ok so let’s get into totals for tomorrow.

Adirondacks could see anywhere from 2-8” with more possible north of the Dacks in the Plattsburgh area. 3-6++* Gore Mountain, 2-5 Whiteface, 3-6 Macaulay Mtn, and 6+ Plattsburgh.
* = Potential for more

Catskills and surrounding areas are going to depend greatly on where the rain/snow line occurs. Right now I think it’s safe to say all snow or mix transitions to snow pretty quickly.
By noon tomorrow we should all be in the mix.
Bellayre/Hunter/Windham Mtns. May start as mix but should end up with 2-5 regionally. Lower elevations to the valley may receive a coating - 2”.

I will likely tweak these totals throughout the day and night as new data becomes available. So set your notifications or follow us for the most recent information.

I will post on this weekends storm tonight when there’s some more data available. But for now plan on significant snow sometime in the latter half of Saturday-Monday morning. Some areas may receive additional snow Monday from up-sloping and Lake Effect.

We clear out sometime Monday and beyond, look for storms to return to the region around the 25 of this month. But for now let’s focus on all the fun and excitement we have in the coming days!

Happy Trails! CJ

Image Courtesy; Tropical Tidbits

14/01/2020

Forecast Tuesday 1/14

Short Term;

We are quiet today, with a few disturbances north of the ADK and along the Mohawk Valley. Wednesday looks to be quiet as well with temps above freezing, cloudy, and minimal wind. Thursday a considerable storm moves over the Great Lakes and into the region. We clear out Friday and Saturday with heavier snow for Saturday night into Monday.

Detailed Forecast:

Wed 1/15 - Sat 1/18
A low pressure system is currently tracking into the Grate Lakes Region today. The models are split on the outcome for this storm, especially depending on where in NY you will be. There’s is a blocking pattern set up off the coast of Florida pushing warm air and storms up from the South. In Fig 3 you can see the H blocking storms and sending them up the coast. The ridge is expected to shift East into West Africa in the coming days, opening up the opportunity for cold air to funnel down from Canada and merge with coastal storms. The models are split on if this happens in time for Thursday’s storm. The Canadian model is trending slightly warmer and wetter than the rest with up to 10” possible for the western Adirondacks but starting as rain for the Catskills and Valley towns before cold air works in changing the entire region to snow. Totals will depend greatly on location and timing of cold air with this one. Notice the difference in the Green areas in the first 2 pics. Taking an average I’d say coating to 2” for Catskills and 2-8 with chance for more for the Adirondacks on Thursday’s storm.

Saturday 1/18 - Mon 1/20
We have a significant storm starting to build that will likely impact the region starting late Saturday night - Monday morning. I’ve been tracking this one for almost a week already and there is strong confidence among the models of a strong wet storm. This storm will likely be all snow for the entire region but we are still a little far out to nail down totals. Thursday’s storm should help to push high pressure further to our East thus relieving the blocking pattern, and allowing cold air to cycle south. Air temps will play a big role in totals here as there is currently a large swing in SLR among the models. SLR is the snow to liquid ratio so the higher the ration the more, drier, lighter, snow. Ya know the good stuff. We could see anywhere from 13-18+/1 SLR so that’s going to determine how much snow accumulates on the ground. We will watch the Atlantic over the coming days to see how low the jet stream dips and where the storm tracks. There should be record amounts of liquid in the air we’ll just have to see if the pattern sets up to drop it all on NY. We’ll get into totals after we get through this next storm on Thursday. Fig 4 5 are the current projection for Sunday’s storm, you can see large amounts of liquid being pulled off the Atlantic, if there’s enough cold air and the storm moves slow enough, it could be very significant for both Cats and Dacks. Fig 6 is Euro temp projection right below freezing going into Sunday’s storm!

Extended Forecast.

Next week and beyond;

There are more storms showing up on the models each day. We are far from done with winter in fact I’d say we are just getting started. The MJO has shifted into Phase 5 and projected to progress into Phases 6 by Feb 1 That is a very favorable pattern, especially if we continue through Phase 7. These patterns favor cold wet cycles for the NE. Remember a few years back when Boston got 5 feet? Phase 7 baby! Feb-April 2011 received 110% of their seasonal average in the Adirondacks for snowfall, Also Phase 7

Recap;
Snow Thursday still fairly uncertain as we are waiting for a major pattern shift in the coming days. But for now plan on rain transitioning to snow for the Catskills, light cover - 2”. Adirondacks 3-6” with up to 10” possible In the Northern reaches of the ADK.
Significant Storm Sunday/Monday low wind, heavier totals, colder, totals TBD.

If you have any questions DM’s are welcome!

Images Courtesy; Tropical Tidbits

14/01/2020

Welcome all to CatDack Snow Forecast! Thank you for viewing and don’t forget to like and follow! The intent of this page is to give a no nonsense forecast for all winter weather in the Catskill and Adirondack Mountains of upstate NY. I will post daily throughout the fall and winter. I will try to post early for the powder chasers who want to make the best of each cycle! I use a combination of technology, historical data, and common sense to determine the forecasts I make. My forecast are much more detailed and technical than what you might see on the news but don’t be intimidated, I’ll break down all the information I give in each post so that everyone can get the most accurate idea of what to expect and where to head to get the goods!

Catskill Adirondack Snow Forecast

10/02/2020

09/02/2020

02/02/2020

23/01/2020

22/01/2020

21/01/2020

20/01/2020

16/01/2020

15/01/2020

14/01/2020

14/01/2020

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