Plan Baan

21/05/2022

Following my short term prediction on BTC/USD in November 2021; I further referenced the NASDAQ composite index and noted a close correlation between between the dot com sell off and the current cryptocurrency market sell off. During that period the NASDAQ saw a sell off till October 2002 after a second rebound in August 2000. This is similar to the cryptocurrency sell off in May 2021 which rebounded in November 2021 before the current sell off was triggered. Should the correlation holds the current sell down for the cryptocurrency market will continue into October 2022 before seeing a gradual rebound in the coming months after and into 2023.

26/11/2021

Short Term Prediction for BTC/USD

Taking reference from the price movement pattern from November 2020 till May 2021, I see a possible similar occurrence where there was a slight retrace from the previous high before the meteoric rise to the all time high in 2021 before falling off in May 2021. If following this similar price movement trend it would mean that the rise would begin in December 2021 with retracing happening in January 2022 before a large dip by May 2022.

23/11/2021

Prediction of the S&P 500 Index in 2022

The announcement of Powell's reappointment as the Federal Reserves Chairman brought some certainty to the US markets given that interest rates will remain fairly stable with one planned hike in 2022. However rising inflation is something to be watchful in the coming year.

Based on the S&P 500 5-year timeframe chart, the markets are at an all time high with no anchoring point. I draw a similar reference in January 2018 where the market peaked with no anchoring point before some initial dips followed by a full market sell off in October 2018. Coincidentally the inflation rate was above 2% for 2018.

If history repeats itself, my take is that there would possibly be a market sell off in the early part of 2022 followed by a possible slight recession taking queue from similarities in the early 1920s (see 4th November 2021 post). Also based on the chart and the timeframes of the 1920s the markets will only pick up a year later i.e. early 2023 and recover in July 2023.

04/11/2021

Will History Repeat Itself?

“After dropping by more than 32% in 1920, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped from a value of 71.95 points at the beginning of 1921 to a high of more than 381 points before the market crashed in October 1929.”

January 1920 - July 1921: Recession
May 1923 - July 1924: Recession
October 1926 - November 1927: Recession
August 1929: Great Depression

Coincidentally in 2020 we saw the Dow Jones Index dropping by 3000 points. Will we see the same fate coming and does it mean we have 7 more years to prepare for the storm to come and if history repeats itself after 100 years will we see the similar pattern during this 7 year period.

January 2020 - July 2021: Recession Happened due to COVID-19
May 2023 - July 2024: Recession?
October 2026 - November 2027: Recession?
August 2029: Great Depression?

https://www.thebalance.com/roaring-twenties-4060511

The 1920s had hidden weaknesses that caused the Great Depression. One reason? The U.S. economy shifted from a traditional to a free-market system.

28/03/2021

Many have long made comparisons of the rise of Bitcoin to the Dot Com bubble, I had the same opinion initially when BTCUSD crossed the USD20,000 mark the second time, however based on a pattern analysis against the NASDAQ composite index it seems that we have passed the phase. This means that prices might not return to the previous low levels. Additionally given that the composite index tracks major technology companies and digital developments, the comparison is a plausible correlation. However the identification of a correlation is only as good as its ability to predict future price movements. Given the meteoric rise of Gold (XAU) in March 2020 and rise in Bitcoin (BTC) later had me draw some commonalities between the two. Both XAU and BTC are considered to be commodities given its demand and its function as a hedge against the markets. The growth of both assets have been similarly steep with BTC trailing 6 months behind forming a delayed correlation. XAUUSD saw a continuous growth of 3 months crossing the USD2,000 mark before trending downwards whilst BTC trended upwards to a peak of USD61,000 before a reverse trend - approximately three months. In my opinion the patterns are forming similarly which drives me to pushing for a short position in the near term similar to the trend of XAUUSD.

17/03/2021

Maximize your rebates with the following alternative shopping mall loyalty apps (Mid-tier). Out of the loyalty apps we studied Shop FarEast had the most compelling returns in the absence of any other promotions as it gives 1% returns on a spending of $500 (general merchandise less supermarket purchase). Not covered in this post are two major landlords Capitaland and Fraser’s Property. However most mechanics work out to be rather similar and the basic tier rebates for the loyalty programs under their malls are 0.5% of total spending (i.e. $5 for every $1,000 of spending).

By Order of General Purchase rebate less any promotions by the malls:
1. Shop FarEast (1%)
2. Lendlease Plus, Suntec+, Great Rewards (0.5%)
*Both Capitastar (Capitaland) and Fraser Rewards have a rebate percentage of 0.5% for general merchandise spending.

The key takeaway from our findings is to couple it with a purchase from tenants with good loyalty rebates such as brands like Muji, Isetan or BHG. This will give a maximum rebate on the actual purchase as points/rebates can be earned from both the landlord and tenant. I will subsequently cover some tenant loyalty programs which I use or am familiar with to share examples on the maximum rebate effect.

12/03/2021

12/03/2021

[Singapore] [Personal Finance]

Maximizing your GrabPay (*Applicable for Singapore and valid as of 14 January 2021)

✅ Method 1: Amex True Cashback Card (https://www.americanexpress.com/.../true-cashback-card.html)
- Link GrabPay to your FavePay.
- Link Amex True Cashback Card to your GrabPay Wallet Top-up.
- Top-up the purchase amount in the GrabPay Wallet before making payment.
- For the top-up amount you would be able to earn 1.5% cashback on the transaction from Amex.
- Depending on your tier you would be able to earn GrabRewards (2x to 4x) when the actual payment is made via FavePay.
- Earn cashback on the payment on FavePay (rebate will vary on merchant, from 2% to 10%).
- So effectively you could get up to a minimum of 3.5% for each payment.

✅ Method 2: UOB One Credit Card
(https://www.uob.com.sg/onecards/uob-one-credit-card.html)
- Link GrabPay to your UOB One Credit Card
- Ensure that you meet the monthly spending tiers of SGD500, SGD1,000 and SGD2,000 receive SGD50 (3.33%), SGD100 (3.33%) and SGD300 (5%) per quarter of cash rebates.
- In addition, depending on your Grab expenditure you would get a rebate of (5%) on the transactions made on the Grab platform with the exception of GrabPay Wallet top-up per quarter. This additional rebates will be capped at SGD100 per month.
- Effectively you would be able to earn up to 10% rebate if you spend SGD2,000 fully on the Grab platform monthly.
- However as the above might be hard to attain consider just spending SGD500 (inclusive of SGD100) Grab payments you would be able to earn a rebate of 4.3%.
- For the payments you would be able to earn GrabRewards (2x to 4x) depending on your tier.
Best of Both Methods 👍
- Use method 1 for your regular or daily retail/dining spend (FoodRepublic, Breadtalk etc.) where you often patronize as the cashback will only apply to the same vendor and on the next purchase.
- Do note that the cashback has a validity of 3 months.
- For transport (i.e. Grab only) and all other purchases use method 2 including payments at retail stores/restaurants which you would not visit within the next 3 months.

© 2021 Man Made Press | Image: Grab

12/03/2021

[Singapore] [Smart Spending Tips]

Personal Finance: 💵 Grab Savings with Shopee & UOB
🚗 UOB One Credit Card = Up to 15% Savings
- Search for Grab vouchers/promotion codes on Shopee and make payment using your UOB One Credit Card.
- The vouchers are set in denominations of SGD5, SGD10, SGD15, SGD20 and SGD25 with a 10% discount on each voucher.
- Depending on the vendor the voucher may be sent to your registered email/mobile number or it may be in the form of a promotion code which can be applied by searching in the Grab App.
- Follow the activation steps should it be sent to your email/mobile number or apply the promotion code on your next Grab ride.
- Your Shopee expenditure will entitle you to a rebate of (5%) on the transactions made on Shopee with the exception of Shopee Wallet top-up per month. This additional rebates will be capped at SGD100.
- In total you would be saving up to 15% off the usual Grab ride with the voucher/promotion code and the rebate.
- Do ensure that you meet the monthly spending tiers of SGD500, SGD1,000 and SGD2,000 to be eligible for the above rebate.

🚕 UOB One Debit Card = Up to 13% Savings
- Follow the same steps above with the payment made using UOB One Debit Card instead of the credit card.
- Your Shopee expenditure will entitle you to a rebate of (3%) on the transactions made on Shopee with the exception of Shopee Wallet top-up per month. This additional rebates will be capped at SGD100.
- In total you would be saving up to 13% off the usual Grab ride with the voucher/promotion code and the rebate.
- Do ensure that you meet the monthly spending tiers of minimum SGD500.

*Grab points would not be accumulated for the use of vouchers/promotion codes.
*Information valid as of 6 February 2021.

© 2021 Plan Baan