01/12/2021
NO "CRYSTAL BALL" NEEDED- DUE TO AN OVERWHELMING WEALTH OF DEMOGRAPHIC ENROLLMENT DATA EMPLOYED BY TWO INDEPENDENT DEMOGRAPHERS, WESTON'S BOE NEED NOT SPECULATE OR "SECOND-GUESS" WHEN BOTH PROJECTED ANOTHER "DECADE" OF ENROLLMENT DECLINES.
AFTER 13 YEARS OF ACCELERATING ENROLLMENT DECLINES (-14% AGGREGATE), BOE FINALLY DEVOTES 2.5 HOURS TO DETAILED REVIEW OF 10-YEAR ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS IN A SPECIAL MEETING DURING WHICH THE BOE CHAIR AGAIN ATTEMPTS TO MISCHARACTERIZE THE STAGGERING DECLINE AND AVOIDABLE WASTE UNIQUE TO WESTON.
AT THE 2:17 MINUTE MARK, THE BOE CHAIR DEFERS BOE RESPONSIBILITY FOR LONG-TERM ENROLLMENT PLANNING TO THE TOWN FACILITY OPTIMIZATION COMMITTEE- THE IMPLICATIONS OF THAT ARE SHOCKING. WITH HIS STATEMENT, CHAIRMAN PESCO MADE A MOCKERY OF THE TOWN CHARTER AND REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY BY DEFERRING ACCOUNTABILITY FOR ENROLLMENT PLANNING TO APPOINTED FOC LEADERS GAYLE WEINSTEIN AND RICK BERTASI. The implications of his statement are educationally and politically outrageous.
The extraordinary bias and lack of objectivity by the BoE members was vividly displayed again last night during Q&A of the demographers. Sadly, what is clear from the Weston BoE members' questions is that despite duplicate projections of declines, and all data to the contrary, they all remain reluctant to believe either projection of enrollment decline- no change in BoE bias and ignorance from BoE member attitudes the past 10 years. Their collective disbelief is obvious- for example when Sharon Ferraro refers to a "crystal ball", or Bernadette emphasizes the "covid-factor". And again when Sharon Ferraro fuels the PTO myth of a non-existent COVID "baby boom". Note: To Superintendent Wolak's credit, late in the meeting she acknowledges her personal bias on the subject of WHS enrollment. Again, a role model to counter the incomprehensible ignorance and bias by too many BoE members.
After the largest drop in births and fertility rates in recorded US history last year, the second half of this year and next year there will likely be a nominal "uptick" from last year's historically low birth count, and perhaps even from prior annual averages. But the net multiyear effect will be the OPPOSITE of a "baby boom". The COVID BABY BUST is well documented. Link again below...
https://theweek.com/.../america-is-looking-down-the...
NO "CRYSTAL BALL NEEDED": this is the point, the projections are data-based math. There is very little "uncertainty" longer term in aggregate (though grade-level projections will always surprise in some grades, in every year). The "low" projection scenarios have been remarkably accurate the past 10 years (contradicting Mike Zuba's implausible statements given his inaccuracy). Weston BoE members are hoping for "unreliability"- they have failed our children and our community again with their performance last evening.
No "Crystal Ball" needed because of the attached demographers' charts: Weston births are currently HALF of 20 years ago when Weston enrollment spiked leading to WIS, and building permits issued are as little as 1/3 of that same period in the late 90s / early 00s. ENROLLMENT WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH LONG TERM. But Sharon Ferraro sums up her ignorance and bias by declaring she will "wait and see" despite all the demographers' data at an avoidable cost to Weston students and taxpayers of $8,000,000 per year. Because she knows better than any demographer- clearly, there was no reason to hire an outside professional to project Weston enrollment. Much less two of them that told Sharon Ferraro the exact opposite of what she would have preferred to hear.
Some critical considerations for participants to keep in mind:
1. BoE has not previously bothered to understand long range enrollment trends or projections- last night was a first because 3 dozen students fewer this year contradicted their hopes for implausible gains due to Covid demand spike.
2. BoE contracted TWO different demographers this year (more avoidable waste due only to WPS/BOE leadership and the SLAM demographer's lack of objectivity) to have more certainty in projections. Mission accomplished, the two demographers projected the same thing- another decade of declines.
3. Last night's detailed review is ONLY necessary relative to 15% aggregate enrollment decline from Weston's peak because unlike other CT Districts, Weston opened a 4th school building at the exact time enrollment began crashing.
4. The second Demographer, Mike Zuba from his new company (SLAM), has been providing former Superintendent and the Weston BoE inflated enrollment projections for years. Had he been more responsible to Weston taxpayers rather than Superintendent McKersie's personal agenda, the BoE could have saved $5,000 and only contracted for NESDEC. Due to inaccuracy (54 students or over 2% too high for projections this year), Mike Zuba and SLAM should NEVER have been contracted again by WPS.
The BoE Chair fails to mention this critical fact during his questions. He also uses the same old tactics to characterize total enrollment decline as "average" (only 10%), by limiting the date range he is referring to. Since enrollment peak, Weston enrollment declined closer to -15%, and is projected to reach -17% in total the next few years (see final attached graph). Worse, the BoE Chair is incorrectly representing that relative enrollment trends across Distist occur in a vacuum. Unfortunately, in the context of Weston's top spending per pupil of all CT Districts, as well as the construction of a brand new 4th additional WIS school facility that was supposed to be an unmatched magnet for prospective residents, Weston's aggregate enrollment decline is indisputably the WORST performance of any CT District.
As a last ditch effort to deny the reality of enrollment trends and the implications of the projections, several BoE members suggested surveying residents for their planned household births in a desperate attempt to solicit speculative and statistically dubious anecdotal "evidence" open to manipulation by a biased Weston BoE . What a waste of money in an embarrassing attempt to get new residents to tell them what the BoE members would prefer to hear. The numbers are clear- at 80% of total Town spending, TOO FEW PEOPLE ARE CHOOSING TO MOVE TO WESTON WHICH MEANS AT TOP SPENDING PER PUPIL IN THE STATE, THE SCHOOLS ARE NOT THE MAGNET LEADERSHIP FALSELY PREFERS TO BELIEVE THEM TO BE. The only survey the Town and District might benefit from is of prospective buyers that chose Wilton, Ridgefield, Westport, Fairfield, Guilford, etc. AFTER looking at Weston. But that objective feedback is the LAST thing any incumbent Weston Board leader responsible for 40% home value and decades of enrollment declines wants to hear.
Generally the demographers' commentary was fairly reliable. With the exception of the "unexpected" drop in WHS enrollment. The NESDEC demographer attributed it mostly to natural cohort migration (largest grades graduating through and out). But "natural" is never unexpected. Both demographers failed to correctly state that "unexpected" WHS enrollment declines can only be explained by static home counts in Weston, and that therefore uncharacteristically families with HS-aged kids moved out before graduation the past 2 years. Mission accomplished by the BoE Chair, more misdirection and mischaracterization only obvious to the few residents that are closely and objectively watching these meetings.
Despite all the BoE members' skepticism and attempts to discredit the projected declines, the NESDEC demographer in no uncertain terms advised them that for Weston, Covid is an anomaly, that over the next decade, will be erased by the more dominant State and National trends. In other words, there is no doubt that long term, enrollment will keep crashing for WPS- which means, as we have documented, the 4th school is entirely excess in any future scenario. Superintendent Wolak confirms this when she thanks the NESDEC demographer specifically for her "clarity" in presentation.
The SLAM demographer stated in response to a question from the BoE Chair that in his 20 years of experience, Weston is the only community he has seen parents of HS-age children sell their home and move out of a community in measurable numbers prior to their children's graduation. Ouch Weston. Talk about a wake-up call for all those that moved to Weston "for the schools"... as well as for Weston District and Town leadership.
