26/01/2022
We're very clearly on the downward slope from an enormous surge, but much like the last surges, the rate of decline is slower than the rate of increase at the beginning of the surge. So definitely do not expect rates to drop to summer of 2021 levels next week. It also looks like hospitalization peaked this past week, so the worst of the current surge may be behind us. Let's hope for no more surges, but otherwise, be vigilant. Case counts may be lower, but we're still at levels not seen at all prior to this year.
"For the week of January 16, 2022-January 22, 2022, 11,821 infections were reported. There were 932, or 8 percent, reinfections and 5,143 of reports, or 44 percent, were of unvaccinated individuals. There were also 72 deaths reported in that same time frame.
To date, there have been 240,349 infections, 2,835 deaths and 11,742 hospitalizations reported in Allegheny County residents."
All data below will be as of January 16, unless otherwise indicated, and will be derived from state or Federal sources. The state reported 11,898 cases from January 17-23 with a total of 240,260 from the beginning of the pandemic.
Vital Stats:
7-day case rate - Allegheny County (Jan 23): 951 / 100,000 - High Community Transmission
7-day positivity rate - Allegheny County (Jan 22): 24.32%
Total population vaccinated - Allegheny County (Jan 23): 67.5%
Average daily COVID-19 patients in hospital (Jan 23): 766/3180 and in ICU: 133/539
Average percentage of all hospital beds available (Jan 23): 11.1%
From January 17-23 in Allegheny County, 11,898 newly reported cases, 495 newly reported hospitalizations, and 72 newly reported deaths were reported.
The 11,898 new cases reported over the past week lead to a case rate of 951 cases for every 100,000 people. This is 52.5% of the 22,666 cases reported one week before.
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Data is from January 23 and changes are from one week prior unless otherwise indicated.
According to CDC thresholds, we are in the High Transmission (Red) category (951 >= 100).
7-Day Total Case Rate: 951 (-861) - two weeks ago: 1,905 - 52 weeks ago: 216
At current two-week linear trends, the case rate will reach the threshold for Substantial Transmission (Orange) of 100 on February 5, 2022.
Overall Peak: 1,978 - January 12, 2022
14-Day Case Rate: 2,764 (-953) - two weeks ago: 2,905 - 52 weeks ago: 511
Overall Peak: 3,717 - January 16, 2022
Positivity in Allegheny County (Jan 22): 24.32% (-4.81%)
Hospitalizations reported in the last week: 495 (+147) - two weeks ago: 451
Average daily COVID-19 patients currently hospitalized: 766 (+12) in ICU: 133 (+2)
This number had a recent peak at 783 on Jan 21, 2022, the highest at any time since 2020.
Percentage of all hospital beds occupied by COVID patients: 24.1% (+0.7%)
Percentage of all ICU beds occupied by COVID patients: 24.6% (+0.0%)
Average percentage of all hospital beds available: 11.1% (+0.1%)
Average percentage of ICU beds available: 10.7% (-0.3%)
Average percentage of all pediatric beds available: 26.1% (-0.2%)
Average percentage of pediatric ICU beds available: 21.2% (-1.3%)
Deaths reported in the last week: 72 (-34) - two weeks ago: 47
Deaths reported in the last 52 weeks: 1,572
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Indicated changes are from one week prior.
Vaccination synopsis as of January 23:
In Allegheny County:
7-Day Total Case Rate: 951 (-861)
67.5% (+0.3%) of the total population is fully vaccinated.
44.9% (+2.6%) of the total population has received a booster.
58.7% (+2.4%) of the total population has either become fully vaccinated or received a booster in the last six months.
In Pennsylvania:
7-Day Total Case Rate: 889 (-623)
65.4% (+0.5%) of the total population is fully vaccinated.
38.8% (+2.8%) of the total population has received a booster.
52.4% (+2.7%) of the total population has either become fully vaccinated or received a booster in the last six months.
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As before, I will simply report the most up-to-date data for the municipal level because of uncertainty as to how it relates to any of the other data.
The data below are valid as of January 18.
Cases per 100k over seven days:
Mt. Lebanon: 942 (-748)
Upper St. Clair: 784 (-581)
Bethel Park: 980 (-798)
Allegheny County: 859
Mt. Lebanon deaths: 91 (+2) - Case Fatality Rate: 91/5,964 = 1.5%
USC deaths: 36 - Case Fatality Rate: 36/4,152 = 0.9%
Bethel Park deaths: 89 (+2) - Case Fatality Rate: 80/6,614 = 1.3%
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CDC-defined transmission categories:
From the CDC: "If the two indicators suggest different levels, the actions corresponding to the higher threshold should be chosen."
This will describe the thresholds defined by the CDC on Feb 12, 2021. Please see the link below to the document describing the thresholds and the resulting recommendations in more detail.
Low Transmission (Blue):
Total 7-day case rate per 100,000 is less than 10 AND
7-day positivity rate for all tests is less than 5.0%
Moderate Transmission (Yellow):
Total 7-day case rate per 100,000 is greater than or equal to 10 and less than 50 OR
7-day positivity rate for all tests is greater than or equal to 5.0% and less than 8.0%
Substantial Transmission (Orange):
Total 7-day case rate per 100,000 is greater than or equal to 50 and less than 100 OR
7-day positivity rate for all tests is greater than or equal to 8.0% and less than 10.0%
High Transmission (Red):
Total 7-day case rate per 100,000 is greater than or equal to 100 OR
7-day positivity rate for all tests is greater than or equal to 10.0%
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Formulas:
Population figures are taken from the US Census Bureau's 2018 ACS 5-year Survey estimates.
The 14-day case rate is computed by taking the total number of cases over two weeks, dividing by the population of the county (1,218,462, taken from the the population used by the state), and multiplying by 100,000. For instance, if there have been 1,633 new cases over the previous 14 days, then the rate is computed as: 1,633 / 1,218,462 * 100,000 = 133.
The 7-day average daily case rate is calculated by taking the total number of cases over one week, dividing by the population of the county (1,218,462), dividing again by 7 to get the average per day, and multiplying by 100,000. Therefore, if there have been 821 new cases over the previous 7 days, then the rate is computed as: 821 / 1,218,462 / 7 * 100,000 = 9.6.
This 7-day PCR rate is calculated by taking the total number of confirmed cases over one week, dividing by the population of the county (1,218,462), and multiplying by 100,000. Therefore if there have been 626 new cases over the previous 7 days, the rate is computed as: 626 / 1,218,462 * 100,000 = 51.1.
In order to estimate the 7-day case rate for a municipality or school district, take the ratio of confirmed cases to total cases and multiply by the 7-day case rate for the municipality. For example, if the municipal 7-day case rate for Mt. Lebanon is 116.8, and there were 821 total and 626 confirmed cases in the county over the previous week, you can estimate the PCR rate by computing: 626 / 821 * 116.8 = 89.1.
Positivity is computed by taking the number of cases over a period of time and dividing by the number of tests taken over the same period of time. Therefore, if 158 cases were found from 2,402, you compute positivity as: 158 / 2,402 = 0.0658 or 6.58%. If there were 626 cases taken from 10,005 tests over a 7-day period, you compute the 7-day positivity as: 626 / 10,005 = 0.0626 or 6.26%.
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References:
ACHD links to COVID-19 dashboards and related data:
https://alleghenycounty.us/Health-Department/Resources/COVID-19/COVID-19-Dashboards.aspx
ACHD Vaccine Information
https://www.alleghenycounty.us/Health-Department/Resources/COVID-19/COVID-19-Vaccine-Information.aspx
Pennsylvania Early Warning Monitoring System Dashboard
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Monitoring-Dashboard.aspx
Open Data PA, providing three datasets relevant to COVID-19 (Aggregate cases, Aggregate hospitalizations, and Aggregate deaths)
https://data.pa.gov/browse?limitTo=datasets&q=COVID-19&sortBy=relevance
CDC Community Profile Report
https://healthdata.gov/Health/COVID-19-Community-Profile-Report/gqxm-d9w9
CDC State Profile Report - Pennsylvania
https://healthdata.gov/Community/COVID-19-State-Profile-Report-Pennsylvania/tkdp-r3p8
CDC COVID Data Tracker (County View)
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/ -view
CDC Variant Proportions - Historical and Projected
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/ -proportions
Dataset - CDC COVID-19 Vaccinations in the US by State or Equivalent
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-Jurisdi/unsk-b7fc
Dataset - CDC COVID-19 Vaccinations in the US by County
https://data.cdc.gov/Vaccinations/COVID-19-Vaccinations-in-the-United-States-County/8xkx-amqh
Johns Hopkins "Differences in Positivity Rates"
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/differences-in-positivity-rates
"Why positive test rates need to fall below 3%" from the Harvard Global Health Institute
https://globalhealth.harvard.edu/evidence-roundup-why-positive-test-rates-need-to-fall-below-3/
This is the weekly COVID-19 report from the Allegheny County Health Department.
For the week of January 16, 2022-January 22, 2022, 11,821 infections were reported. There were 932, or 8 percent, reinfections and 5,143 of reports, or 44 percent, were of unvaccinated individuals. There were also 72 deaths reported in that same time frame.
To date, there have been 240,349 infections, 2,835 deaths and 11,742 hospitalizations reported in Allegheny County residents. For more detail on infections, hospitalizations and deaths, visit https://bit.ly/ACHDcovid-19
