Konner's Weather - Northwest Iowa

02/06/2024

Sunday, June 2 12:15 PM | Strong to severe storms will be possible yet again today into tonight. Initially, some storms may develop this afternoon into this evening. If those storms develop, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.

Overnight, depending how storms further west develop, a line of strong to severe storms may push through. Damaging winds would be the main threat, with tornadoes and large hail being a secondary threat. Heavy rain will also be possible.

Stay weather aware and prepared today into tonight!

23/05/2024

Thursday, May 23 9:00 AM | Severe storms are possible once again today. A line of storms looks to develop off to our west and push into western Iowa during the overnight hours, probably between 10 PM and 4 AM, with a trend towards the later timing. The main threat currently looks to be strong winds, but large hail and tornadoes remain possible. Have a way to receive warnings tonight, and stay weather aware!

21/05/2024

21/05/2024

Tuesday, May 21 8:45 AM | A severe thunderstorm outbreak is likely over parts of Iowa today. Strong to severe storms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and push east across Iowa. Very large hail, very strong winds, and strong tornadoes are possible, especially in the moderate (4/5, red) risk area. The moderate has been expanded significantly from what it was last night.

For those of us in NW Iowa, the risk is lower, but don't let your guard down. Have ways to receive warnings today and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary. Stay safe!

Attached is the current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for today, as well as the probabilities for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. The probabilities represent the chance of said severe event occurring within 25 miles of any point. The black striped areas represents an increased risk for significant severe weather (2+ inch hail, 75+ mph wind gusts, EF2+ tornadoes).

21/05/2024

Monday, May 20 11:00 PM | Strong to severe storms are possible overnight into tomorrow morning, as well as again tomorrow afternoon. Overnight, large hail appears to be the main threat, with some potential for more of a wind threat towards morning hours. Depending how quickly morning storms move out, PM redevelopment is expected. There remains some uncertainty on how far northwest this will occur, but for much of southern and eastern Iowa, there is relatively high certainty in the potential for severe storms.

A moderate (4/5) risk has been issued for parts of southeast tomorrow, with damaging winds being the main threat. Very strong winds, very large hail, and even some tornadoes (potentially strong) will be possible tomorrow, especially within the enhanced (3/5) and moderate (4/5) risk areas.

Attached is the current Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook for tomorrow, as well as the probabilities for large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. The probabilities represent the chance of said severe event occurring within 25 miles of any point. The black striped areas represents an increased risk for significant severe weather (2+ inch hail, 75+ mph wind gusts, EF2+ tornadoes).

Tomorrow will be a good day to stay weather aware. Be prepared to alter plans, especially if you are in a higher risk for severe weather. Stay safe, and have a way to receive watches and warnings!

05/05/2024

Sunday, May 5, 6:00 PM | Strong to severe storms will be possible again tomorrow. The greatest risk currently looks to be across NW Iowa in the evening (roughly 3-10 PM). Large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding are all possible. An isolated tornado is also possible, but not as likely. Remain weather aware yet again tomorrow!

30/04/2024

Tuesday, April 30 10:30 AM | Summary: Strong to severe storms are still expected to develop along the I-29 corridor and push east this afternoon. Very large hail and damaging winds look to be the main threat, with an isolated tornado possible.

Details: Storms are still expected to develop along a cold front pushing east through Iowa this afternoon and evening. Initial development is expected between 1-4 PM and push east across Iowa. Initially, very large hail and isolated tornadoes will be the main threat. As storms push east through the afternoon/evening, if they can develop into a more linear segment, significant wind gusts may be possible, although the risk for very large hail could continue as it pushes east. The greatest threat for severe weather currently looks to be across central Iowa into southwest Iowa as storms grow, where the greatest risk for very large hail will exist.

Today is a day to stay weather aware and have ways to receive warnings. Be prepared to seek shelter, and consider tying down/putting away loose objects. Stay safe!

29/04/2024

Monday, April 29, 3:45 PM | The severe threat for tomorrow continues to grow. Storms are expected to develop along a cold front along the western Iowa border region, likely along the I-29 corridor (perhaps a bit further east/west). Storms may initially be more isolated. If storms remain more isolated, there will be a greater risk for very large hail (potentially 2''+) and perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

As storms continue to develop, it seems probable that they may evolve into more of a line, increasing the threat for damaging winds, with some potential for winds 75+ mph depending on how things evolve.

Some key notes on uncertainty:
1. The exact location of development: there remains some discrepancies on the exact location of development among weather models. If storms develop further west (into SD and NE), they could be quite intense by the time they reach the far western Iowa counties, such as Sioux county. If they develop further east, western Iowa could be mostly spared.
2. How quickly cells converge into a line: if everything becomes linear rather quickly, the risk for tornadoes and large hail will decrease somewhat with the risk for damaging winds increasing, and if storms remain more isolated for longer as they progress eastward, the threat for hail and tornadoes will likely increase.
3. The exact timing: Generally, storms look to develop between 2-5 PM, although just as with location, there remains some variability on exact timing. They are also linked, as the earlier storms develop, the further west they will possibly be as the cold front won't have progressed as far, and if timing is later, the cold front will likely be further east.

Most importantly, for tomorrow, stay weather aware. Have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings, and seek shelter if a warning is issued, especially for tornado warnings. That being said, wind and hail can also cause significant damage. So, even if "only" a severe thunderstorm warning is issued, be prepared to seek shelter. Stay safe, and stay tuned for further updates!

28/04/2024

Sunday, April 28, 2:30 PM | Thankfully, northwest Iowa was spared from any significant severe weather this week. Unfortunately, other parts of the country, including parts of Iowa, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and more were affected by significant tornadoes.

As we move into this next week, severe weather season looks to continue. Currently, our next chance for severe weather is expected Tuesday. Details remain uncertain on exact timing and location, but a cold front is expected to push in from the west sometime Tuesday afternoon/evening.

At least some severe weather potential will exist, especially across western Iowa. As we get closer, details will come into focus, but looking at models right now, multiple models are hinting at a line of storms firing along a cold front. All hazards would be possible, but based on the current model suggestion of a more linear system, I would expect winds to be the greatest threat.

I plan on posting another update as we get closer and details become more clear. Regardless, Tuesday will be yet another day to stay weather aware, especially across eastern Nebraska into western Iowa. Stay tuned for further updates!

Below is the current SPC outlook for Tuesday.

25/04/2024

Thursday, April 25 2:30 PM | Severe storms will be possible across much of Iowa, including NW Iowa, tomorrow, Friday, April 26.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as tonight. The initial storms likely won't be severe, but could bring us some more beneficial rain across Iowa. However, the real concern is tomorrow. While there is still some uncertainty, additional storms are expected to develop tomorrow afternoon. These storms could pose a risk for very large hail, tornadoes (potentially strong), damaging winds, and heavy rain.

Currently, the greatest risk is across the SW quadrant of Iowa; however, depending on the exact track of the low pressure system and the way morning storms, play out, storms could extend into NW Iowa. Any storms that do develop that far north could still have a tornado threat if the atmosphere can recover from any morning storms.

Tomorrow is another day to stay weather aware. Looking further ahead, additional severe storms will be possible this weekend. Current trends point to the greatest risk being more the southeastern half of the state, although it is something to keep an eye on, regardless of where you are as things can change quickly.

If there are any major updates, I'll make another post. Stay safe, and have multiple ways to receive warnings! Be prepared to seek shelter if needed. As you all saw in northwest Iowa last week Tuesday, storms can develop quickly and produce tornadoes whether you expect it or not. Stay safe!

15/04/2024

Monday, April 15, 2024 2:00 PM | After a relatively quiet start to spring so far, severe weather is possible tonight and again tomorrow.

The first round is expected to develop tonight into early tomorrow morning. The main threat will be hail. The greatest risk is west of Iowa, but there is a risk for severe hail into parts of Iowa, especially the further south and west you go.

Tomorrow (Tuesday), the main threat area will shift to central into southeast Iowa. A round of storms is expecting during the morning to midday hour. This round will contain some severe potential. Depending how storms develop, wind, large hail, and even an isolated tornado is possible.

However, the bigger risk comes behind the line with additional development IF it is able to occur. If the atmosphere can recover and storms can develop behind the morning convection, all severe hazards will be possible again, including very large hail, tornadoes, and damaging winds. There may be the potential for strong tornadoes as well.

Across northwest Iowa, the severe potential will be minimal with some potential for mainly large hail (although strong winds or a tornado can't be ruled out). Also, due to multiple rounds of storms over one location being possible, heavy rain and localized flooding is possible.

The biggest takeaway is to be weather aware tonight into tomorrow, especially across central into southeast Iowa. Have a way to receive weather watches and warnings, and be prepared to seek shelter if necessary. Stay safe, and enjoy (hopefully) getting some much needed rain!

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25/03/2024

Monday, March 25, 2024 3:00 PM | A quick weather update for you all: Some wrap-around precipitation is expected tonight across Northwest Iowa tonight as temperatures drop. Nothing too significant is expected, but some light ice or snow accumulations are possible, as well as strong north to northwesterly winds. Be prepared for some potentially slick conditions tomorrow morning.

23/03/2024

12:00 AM March 23, 2024 | As we approach this weekend, details come into more focus with this upcoming strong winter system, although some uncertainty remains. Some occasional light snow is possible tomorrow, but things really ramp up Saturday night into Sunday. Precipitation will likely start as snow or a mix before transitioning to rain. Depending on the transition time, there could be some snow and/or ice accumulations Saturday into Sunday.

Warm air wrapping into the system will likely keep the precipitation as rain across northwest Iowa throughout much of Sunday into Monday. This rain will be beneficial and hopefully help to relieve the continued drought conditions.

Late Monday, cold air will push back into the system. There is still some model disagreement, but snow may wrap back around Monday night into Tuesday. If this occurs, some moderate accumulations may be possible.

While exact details, especially regarding the transition zone from rain to ice to snow, remain, but it does appear that the heaviest snow will be confined to SD and MN. Stay tuned for further updates as the system evolves, especially as details for the potential wrap around snow Monday night into Tuesday come into clarity.

22/03/2024

10:30 PM 3/21/24 | The first period of snow is still expected overnight into tomorrow morning. Overly heavy accumulations aren't expected, but there could still be some overnight into Friday morning.

The strong storm system is still expected from Saturday night through Tuesday. Details on the exact type of precipitation remain hazy, but for northwest Iowa, it seems that precipitation will likely start as snow before transitioning to rain as warm air wraps into the system. On the back side, accumulating snowfall may occur Monday and possibly into Tuesday as cold air wraps into the system.

Additionally, icing/mixed precipitation may be possible during the transitions. Winds may also be gusty at times. Be prepared for significant snowfall should temperatures remain on the cooler side, but also keep in mind that if warmer temps win out, very little snow accumulation may occur, or it may all melt as temperatures warm and it transitions to rain. Prepare for potentially significant impacts, but keep in mind that if things stay warmer, then significant impacts may stay well north of our area.

20/03/2024

Tuesday, March 19, 2024 | After a prolonged period of quiet and unseasonably warm weather, winter may come back for a fight. The first potential for precipitation will be Thursday night into Friday. This initial round will likely be more impactful further northeast, with only minor rain and/or snow into parts of Iowa.

However, a stronger and prolonged system looks to affect the upper Midwest, starting this weekend and potentially continuing through Tuesday. Details remain hazy as the track is still very uncertain. Rain, ice, and/or snow will all be possible depending on the track. If temperatures trend cooler, a very impactful snow system will be possible. However, if temps trend warmer, impactful freezing rain or even regular rain may occur.

The main point is that a strong system will move in this weekend and stick around for a while. While details are uncertain, now is the time to keep your eyes on the forecast. Be ready for impactful winter weather, but at the same time, remember that a lot can change between now and then.

Also, an important note is that you may see projected snowfall maps or models being thrown around for the system already. Don't buy too much into any totals this far out. Focus more on the potential, and worry about details when the system is only a couple days out.

15/02/2024

Wednesday, February 14, 11:30 PM | As forecasted, the first band of snow developed and effected the region today, with highest amounts in MN and SD. My brother measured roughly an inch in Hull.

Another relatively narrow band of snow is forecasted again tomorrow night (Thursday night) into Friday, with snowfall totals within the band of 2-5'' possible. The current forecasts point to the heaviest snow being over a line roughly along the SD/NE border, extending eastward into Iowa through the Storm Lake/Sioux City area.

Outside of this, there could be an area of about 1-3'' or so. There remains some uncertainty on the placement and intensity, with some weather models placing it further north over far northwest Iowa and other models having a weaker band altogether. For the Hull area, I would currently expect about 1-3'', but if anything changes over the next 24 hours, amounts could increase slightly.

Friday will be colder with some breezy conditions. If enough snow falls, there could be some minor blowing/drifting.

14/02/2024

Tuesday, February 13 11:00 PM | As we get closer to the incoming systems, details are starting to come into focus. Wednesday evening, a system will enter with a narrow band of heavier snowfall possible. Current trends continue to keep the heaviest over southern Minnesota into South Dakota, but any shift south could increase amounts across far northern/northwestern Iowa. Currently, a trace-two inches is expected, especially in the northernmost counties of the northwest Iowa area.

In addition to some continued uncertainty on the exact track, temperatures will be near freezing, especially at the start. As a result, precipitation may initially begin as rain, which would reduce snowfall totals as well. Regardless, this likely will cause more minor impacts.

Thursday night into Friday will bring another system. This system will also bring a narrower band of heavier snowfall again. Details remain uncertain on exact location and amounts, but amounts of 2+ inches will be possible across a narrow band, although current trends are keeping it a bit further south and have it weakening as it pushed from South Dakota/Nebraska into Iowa.

Stay tuned for updates tomorrow on the Thursday/Friday system! Also, if there are any major changes with the system Wednesday night, I'll try to post a quick update tomorrow.

13/02/2024

Monday, February 12 | After an extended period of warmer, spring-like weather, winter looks to return this week. The first shot of snow will be late Wednesday (Valentine's Day) into the overnight hours. Details remain uncertain, but a system is expected to bring a relatively narrow band of snowfall through the Midwest. Current trends keep the heaviest into South Dakota and Southern Minnesota, but parts of far Northern Iowa could still see an inch or two. If it would shift south, amounts could increase slightly.

The next chance comes Thursday night into Friday. Again, details are uncertain, but there is the potential for an area of accumulating snow. This system could bring snow a bit further south, but we will have to see how things play out. Stay tuned!

17/01/2024

Wednesday, January 17 4:00 PM | Snow is still expected tomorrow. A quick burst of moderate to briefly heavy snow is expected tomorrow, entering NW Iowa mid morning and pushing southeast across the state.

Snow won't last super long, but strong NW winds on the backside will lead to blowing snow as the snow will likely be quite fluffy.

A widespread swath of 1-3 inches across much of Iowa is expected. Locally higher amounts may be possible, but not super likely.

Very cold temperatures will set in through Saturday, with lows around -20 possible Friday night. Wind chills may reach -30 or so.

Looking ahead to next week, a warming trend is expected to begin on Sunday, with temperatures in the low to mid 30s next week expected, as well as some chances for light precipitation.

16/01/2024

Tuesday, January 16 3:30 PM | After all of last week's winter weather, I'm sure you are all ready for a break. Unfortunately, there is increasing potential for another round moving through on Thursday, especially in the afternoon. This system will likely be quick system, moving from the NW to the SE across a decent portion of Iowa. There is still some uncertainty, but a couple inches or more may be possible. The snow will likely be fluffy as it is expected to be quite cold.

Very cold temperatures will be ushered in behind the system for the weekend. Northwest winds are also expected to increase, although not to the extent of the blizzard of this past weekend. However, I would imagine blowing snow will likely be at least some what of an issue again (sigh). On the bright side, a warmer pattern is expected to move in Sunday and Monday, bringing a warm start to next week with temperatures likely hitting that freezing mark again for the first time in a while.

13/01/2024

Friday, January 12, 8:10 PM Update | While we may not have got as much snow as initially forecast (I measured 3 inches of new snow in Hull), the combination of the old snow and the new snow will still lead to blizzard conditions through tomorrow.

I decided to do some blizzard "chasing" around Hull. There is quite a bit of blowing snow and roads are starting to drift over some, especially back roads and in town roads. Visibility is also significantly reduced at times.

Light pillars are also visible tonight! Light pillars occur when ice particles aloft reflect the light upward, forming what appears to be a pillar of light.

Road conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the night and the day tomorrow as strong northwest winds persist through tomorrow night. Stay safe if you must go out!

Dangerously cold wind chills are also expected. This weekend will be a good weekend to stay home and enjoy your favorite winter day activities! Stay safe, stay warm, and enjoy your weekend!

12/01/2024

Friday, January 12 12:50 AM | While the NWS still was forecasting 7-11 inches in the 8:50 PM update, I personally am starting to think that those totals may be a bit high. While all trends pointed towards a lot of snow, this system has really been struggling with dry air on the northern edge so far. We will see what the night and tomorrow bring. If the snow can overcome dry air, we could easily see significant snowfall yet. But if not, amounts may trend lower. Regardless, strong winds will lead to difficult travel and dangerously cold wind chills.

12/01/2024

Thursday, January 11 7:00 PM | As I talked about yesterday, the potential for snowfall continues to increase. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM, followed by a Blizzard Warning until 6 AM Saturday. Snowfall of at least 6 inches is likely, with a moderate chance of at least 8 inches, and even a nonzero chance of a foot or more.

Winds will also increase, especially Friday and Saturday, which will lead to blizzard conditions, even after snowfall ends, as the snow will be light and fluffy and there will be plenty of it to blow around with winds gusting as high as 50 mph at times from the northwest.

Dangerously cold wind chills are also expected, with a wind chill warning in effect from 6 PM Friday to 12 PM Tuesday. Wind chills as low as -50 are possible, especially Saturday night through Monday. Stay home if at all possible over the next few days, especially during the windiest/snowiest times and the coldest times.

The National Weather Service in Des Moines mentioned in their forecast discussion that this could be a type of blizzard that only happens once or twice a decade, just to give you an idea of how significant this has the potential to be.

Stay home, stay warm, and stay safe!

11/01/2024

Thursday, January 11 4:10 PM | I'll post more of an update later, but potential for significant impacts continues to increase. There will likely be closings of many area schools and businesses tomorrow. Stay tuned for an update this evening!

11/01/2024

Wednesday, January 10 9:10 PM | Today's snowfall was quite light thankfully.

As I mentioned yesterday, another system is expected to enter the region tomorrow evening. Snow will be possible from tomorrow evening through Saturday, with the highest chances Thursday evening into Friday. As I mentioned yesterday, a north trend was possible, and weather models are hinting at that. Currently, the National Weather Service is forecasting roughly 4-8 inches. Although, as the NWS mentioned and weather models show, some scenarios have us getting barely anything, while others have us getting a foot or more of snowfall.

This snow is expected to be quite light and fluffy, even more so than the snow earlier this week. Regardless of how much snow we receive, winds are expected to increase from the northwest, especially on Friday and Saturday. Winds will likely lead to the blowing of fresh snow, as well as of old snow. Travel impacts will be possible as early as tomorrow evening through Saturday evening.

Also, the extremely cold temperatures are still expected. Wind chills could approach -40 Saturday night through Tuesday morning, with below zero temperatures expected Friday night through Wednesday morning.

If trends continue to support a northern track, closings and delays will be quite possible Friday again. Stay tuned for further updates as details come into focus over the next 12-24 hours!

10/01/2024

Tuesday, January 9 7:15 PM | As this current system has ended, we look ahead to the rest of the week into the weekend. Light snow is possible tomorrow. Nothing too extreme is expected, but there is some potential for a trace through an inch or two max. Behind that, temperatures are expected to plummet. Another system is possible around the weekend. Current forecasts keep it generally southeast of here, but there is some potential for it to shift north yet. Stay tuned!

More notably, extremely cold temperatures are possible into the weekend. While it looks to be quite cold from Thursday on, the coldest temperatures look to be Saturday through Tuesday, with potential for highs below zero and lows as cold as -20. Wind chills may fall into the -30s, especially Saturday night through Monday.

If you must go out during that time, dress warm and stay safe!

08/01/2024

Monday, January 18 4:00 PM | Scattered snow showers continue across the area. More widespread snow is expected overnight. Additional snow of 3-7 inches is still possible. Winds are also expected to increase during the overnight hours into tomorrow. As a result, the winter storm warning has been extended through 6 PM tomorrow. The worst travel conditions will likely be overnight into tomorrow morning. Stay safe if you must be out and about!

08/01/2024

Sunday, January 7 7:30 PM | Snow is expected to begin tonight, lasting through early Tuesday morning. There is a high chance of at least 4 inches, a moderate of at least 6 inches, and even a possibility of 8 or more inches. Travel will likely be very difficult, especially later tomorrow into Tuesday morning.