24/04/2024
Hoping he’s wrong. But something to think about.
President Biden has finally signed the next tranche of aid to Ukraine.
Too little, too late for victory.
What does this $60 billion decision mean for Ukraine, for the world, and for the United States?
In reality, it's not $60 billion, but only $40 billion ($20 billion to replenish the already spent stocks of the US army). And of the $40 billion, only $20 billion is for weapons.
Putin is spending $140 billion a year on the war. His weapons are much cheaper, but not radically worse. https://www.sipri.org/media/press-release/2023/russias-new-budget-law-signals-determination-see-war-ukraine-through-according-new-sipri-analysis
Ukraine is being shelled from border to border and its economy and energy system are semi-destroyed. As a result, not much of its own weapons are produced there.
Europe, having been under the American umbrella for many years, has lost production capacity and will be rocking for a couple more years. If it doesn't fall asleep again. https://www.ft.com/content/171e136f-a5f2-47d8-8f3c-0eae3a8dbd74
In general, the new US aid package will help Ukraine hold out until the end of the year, but no more. Then the loss of Kharkiv, Odesa become real..
The US has three options:
1️⃣ Be prepared to open the storerooms much wider - $100-150 billion a year, possibly provide not only planes, but also pilots, possibly decide on the participation of NATO countries. And either win or get a nuclear conflict. The opportunity to win with small forces was lost from 2014 to 2022, when Putin was not ready for a real war.
2️⃣ Pretend that the affairs of Europe do not concern the US and that the war in Ukraine has nothing to do with the US. The reality is different: some 5-6 out of 8 billion people think otherwise and will perceive the defeat of Ukraine as a weakness of America. https://cam.ac.uk/stories/worlddivided The consequences are already visible in the Red Sea - "the weak are beaten."
3️⃣ Ensure a ceasefire through negotiations. During the 2-year respite, strengthen Ukraine so that Putin does not dare to attack again. And not only Ukraine, but also its neighbours. This is not a victory, but not a complete defeat either. And perhaps a victory in the medium term, with the fall of Putin's regime. This is not a victory, but not a complete defeat either. And perhaps a victory in the medium term, with the fall of Putin's regime. Very little time is left to make a decision. Time to think about next steps is now.
