22/01/2023
COMPARATIVE OVERVIEW OF ATIKU, OBI AND BOLA TINUBU ON TWENTY POINTS (20) SOCIO-POLITICAL AND LEADERSHIP INDICATORS BY PROFESSOR YEMI OKE: A REJOINDER BY NN194ATIKU
BACKGROUND
The article on the above subject matter authored by Prof. Yemi Oke appears interesting but intriguing. A deeper look into the essay betrays the author’s innocence as an objective analyst. Although he tried hard to conceal his preferred presidential candidate, the skewed and subjective manner of his submissions, portray him as an apologist of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. In this period of electioneering, this should be expected. Of course, it is within his alienable right to support whoever he wishes.
First, we observe that the twenty (20) socio-political and leadership indicators used were deliberately selected to favour his candidate. Otherwise, it is unrealistic to ascribe superiority to one candidate on almost all the indicators analysed. The purpose of this rejoinder, therefore, is to correct the misinformation and misconceptions saturated in the article to set the records straight particularly as it affects His Excellency, Atiku Abubakar, GCON, Wazirin Adamawa:
CAPACITY AND CAPABILITY
It is wrong to assert that Atiku Abubakar has not actually exercised executive powers before he became the Vice-President while Obi and Tinubu have demonstrated measurable capacities based on their eight years as Governors of Anambra and Lagos States respectively. First, none of the candidates held any executive position before becoming Vice-President and Governors respectively. The position of Vice-President is an executive position based on the Nigerian Constitution. Whereas Tinubu and Obi relegated their Deputy Governors and rendered them ineffective, Obasanjo and Atiku worked as a team. The successes recorded by the Obasanjo administration were largely attributed to the political astuteness and economic versatility of Atiku Abubakar. Second, if Obi and Tinubu succeeded as Governors based on the governance indices mentioned, it is because Obasanjo and Atiku created the enabling macro environment.
EDUCATIONAL BACKGROUND
On educational background, Prof. Oke submitted that all three candidates are qualified. However, it would have been more instructive to identify the institutions they attended. We recall the “Toronto” scandal that swept off a one-time Speaker of the House of Representatives. Based on institutions attended and qualifications obtained by Tinubu, so many questions have remained unanswered going into the elections. The educational background of Atiku Abubakar has never been a subject of interrogation.
SUSTAINABILITY INDICATORS
According to Prof. Oke, this focuses more on the post-leadership trends of the three candidates. On this, he scored Atiku and Obi very low in terms of legacies, followership and party structures. He argued that Atiku and Obi have changed political parties thereby losing structures and alliances. First, it is necessary to note that in politics, strategic alliances are necessary for success. Tinubu has been in politics for quite some time but his party (AD, AC & ACN) has never won presidential election until there was an alliance that birthed the APC. Tinubu himself is contesting for the presidency for the first time. Second, in the current democratic dispensation, Atiku has contested for the presidency in 2007, 2019 and now in 2023. What else could be the evidence of a man’s popularity in terms of structures, acceptability and followership than this? President Buhari also changed parties (ANPP, CPC & APC) before winning the elections after three failed attempts. Clearly, Atiku is a national champion whose popularity transcends all known primordial sentiments. A pluralistic nation like Nigeria needs such a person as president.
HONESTY AND INTEGRITY
The argument of Prof. Oke on this indicator appears mundane. While claiming it is a very problematic indicator, he went ahead to rank Tinubu higher based on positive acknowledgement by his successors while arguing that Obasanjo’s endorsement of Obi has undermined Atiku. In politics, endorsement is not a determinant of honesty and integrity. Endorsement is rather driven by political interests. In 2019, the same Obasanjo endorsed Atiku. So, what has changed between 2019 and today other than political interest. We all know that in politics, there are no permanent friends but permanent interests. Therefore, to use Obasanjo’s non-endorsement of Atiku as a basis to evaluate his honesty and integrity is laughable. The issue of honesty and integrity must be evidenced-based and not presumptuous. Atiku is one of the most probed public officials in Nigeria, yet, nothing incriminating has been established against him. Can the same be said of Tinubu if he is to be probed today?
RECORDS OF STRONG LEADERSHIP IN DIFFICULT TIMES
Again, this indicator has not provided the needed level playing field to evaluate the candidates. If the performance of Tinubu in Lagos is the basis for assessment, then Atiku’s performance as Vice-President should have been considered. Obasanjo and Atiku came to power at a time the nation had almost collapsed based on all indicators of national development. While Obasanjo spent so much time on diplomatic shuttles to mitigate the pariah status of Nigeria and to attract direct foreign investments, Atiku took care of the home front and virtually rebuilt the economy. This is a fact that cannot be ignored. It is sad that we are back to a situation even worse than 1999. Today, Nigeria is facing existential threats with a recessed economy, characterised by high budget deficit, huge debt profile, extreme poverty and hunger, unemployment, widespread insecurity with attendant loss of lives and properties, unstable educational system, secessionists agitations, total collapse of infrastructure, and a governance system that is driven by an unseen cabal. Without any doubt, the nation needs Atiku Abubakar to come to the rescue.
PUBLISHED MANIFESTOS AND PROGRAMS
Prof. Oke argues that the manifesto and program of action of Tinubu’s party is more comprehensive and measurable. He also alludes that specific sector-based details are yet to emanate from Atiku’s camp. We believe that Prof. Oke’s allusion is based on assumption which shows he has no idea of Atiku’s blueprint for rescuing Nigeria. Otherwise, he should have known that it is comprehensive, measurable, realistic and achievable. But what is even more important, as far as we are concerned, is the awareness and ownership of the manifesto. Atiku Abubakar has shown high level understanding and awareness of his blueprint, and so, is able to take ownership and discuss the issues without seeking for help. This cannot be said of Tinubu as evidenced in his disjointed speeches at rallies and the charade at Chatham House. The reference to agbado, popcorn, slice of bread, etc at rallies is a sign of lack of depth, unseriousness and the disconnect between the candidate and the party manifesto. We do not desire a President who will not be in charge or who will constantly be whispered to on what to say or do.
TESTIMONIALS FROM NON-PARTY MEMBERS
This assessment is based on support for political actors across parties, groups and sections since 1999. Again, Prof. Oke gave it to Tinubu and claims that Atiku’s generosity is acknowledged by a few as involuntary and hinged on his endless quest for presidency since the SDP era. First, Atiku is not the kind of person who publicly announces his generosity. Atiku is a known bridge builder and this could not have been achieved without him lending a hand of support to people across the board. To say that his support is involuntary and hinged on his quest for presidency is farther from the truth. If any support is involuntary and driven by insatiable ambition is that of Tinubu. Why did he fall out with Ambode and other loyalists? Why the “emilokan” outburst in Abeokuta? Atiku is a silent giver and supporter. His various investments are empowering people and communities.
LEADERSHIP AND TEAMWORK
According to Prof. Oke, they have not been able to identify specific experts or skilled professionals speaking for Atiku or Obi. He then concluded that only Tinubu has been showcasing an array of professionals and experts with intimidating track records as would-be managers of his presidency. First, Atiku is not in short supply of professionals and experts. But as far as campaigns are concerned, the person to showcase is the candidate himself and not professionals. If Prof. Oke is to be honest with himself, he knows what obtains in advanced democratic climes where presidential candidates showcase their capacity, competence and understanding of national and international issues. Tinubu’s so-called showcasing of these experts is to conceal his inadequacies as sadly demonstrated at Chatham House in London. Second, we observe that these so-called experts are people serving in the current administration of the APC. Where is their expertise when the nation is collapsing piecemeal?
HUMAN CAPITAL RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT
This indicator is considered in terms of former aides that have been supported to attain higher political offices. Prof. Oke claims that Tinubu has supported his former aids, special assistants, commissioners and others to become Ministers, Vice-President, Governors, Senators, etc. As usual, without any verifiable evidence, Prof. Oke concluded that those Atiku assisted have not, and are unwilling, to publicly identify with his quest for presidency. He believes that human capital resources at the disposal of Tinubu are higher and more significant compared to those of Atiku and Obi. It is instructive to state that mere closeness to a candidate does not translate to support. It is a known fact that most of the people associated with Tinubu serving in the Buhari administration were appointed against his wish. While his basis for demanding appointment is strictly loyalty, Buhari based his appointments on merit. All those said to be supported by Tinubu know very well that there is a “pay day." Some of these people, having realised the need to free themselves from political bo***ge, have chosen to redirect their political trajectory. Atiku Abubakar on the other hand is a builder of people. He has helped to build people into formidable icons in their spheres of influence without him demanding for political returns. Many of them are standing on their own and have become international brands. The saying that action speaks louder than words is the strategic disposition adopted by Atiku loyalists and supporters. It will shock Prof. Oke to know that many APC stalwarts are working underground for Atiku. Recently, Senator Godswill Akpabio, made an uncommon statement to the effect that some people are APC in the day time but PDP at night. This is profound and significant coming from such a highly placed uncommon APC member.
POLITICAL STRUCTURES
Prof. Oke’s postulation is that Atiku’s political structures are dwindling due to what is perceived as ‘political inconstancy’ while Tinubu has strategically retained, nurtured, built and consolidated his political structures. Atiku Abubakar has contested presidential elections in the past, the recent being in 2019 while Tinubu is contesting for the first time. Between the two of them, who should have more and better organised political structures? While Atiku has traversed the political landscape of this country several times Tinubu is just starting.
POLITICAL AND LEADERSHIP MENTORSHIP
According to Prof. Oke, Tinubu is largely perceived as a “Large-Hearted” political leader and mentor simply because he formed parties and yielded his platforms, capital and resources to other political actors to contest elections including President Buhari. He asserts that Atiku and Obi never actually formed, built or nurtured any political parties and that comparatively, Atiku is perceived as not willing to yield his structures for others. Prof. Oke seems to have limited knowledge of political party formation in Nigeria. Atiku was a founding member of PDM, SDP, PDP and APC. Furthermore, Atiku has mentored politicians beyond his state of Adamawa and the North-East zone to the other parts of the country. We challenge Prof. Oke to mention one politician mentored by Tinubu outside Lagos and the South-West zone. Besides, there is a huge difference in the mentorship outcomes of a democrat and an autocrat.
PERSPECTIVES OF THE BUSINESS CLASS
Prof. Oke believes that all those who have businesses in Lagos, being the commercial capital of Lagos, have had a decent relationship with Tinubu directly and so will feel better protected under a Tinubu presidency. This is mere assumption not underpinned by any empirical evidence. Under Presidents Obasanjo, Yaradua and Goodluck Jonathan, the business environment was very conducive. Not only did investments thrive, Nigeria experienced massive inflow of direct foreign investments. Atiku is a very successful businessman whose business antecedents and strides are well known and documented. The business community will prefer a president whose business history is transparent and not shrouded in mystery.
PERSPECTIVES ON CRITICAL NATIONAL ISSUES
On critical national issues such as security, corruption, unemployment, infrastructure, etc, Prof. Oke posits that Tinubu stands out in making categorical statements while Atiku seems to be prevaricating and making generalized statements. Certainly, this cannot be true. In all public appearances, Atiku has been eloquent, articulate, coherent, specific and detailed in delivering his 5-point agenda for rescuing Nigeria. This is not what we have seen of Tinubu campaign so far. He has been very evasive, illusive, incoherent and making caricature of very serious national issues. Tinubu’s speeches have largely been comic reliefs meant to assuage the anger and frustrations of Nigerians with the APC rather than demonstrate knowledge, capacity and competence on how to deal with vexatious national issues bothering Nigerians.
SENSITIVITY TO NATIONAL UNITY
The submission of Prof. Oke on this issue suffers intellectual deficit. According to him, although religious factor is divisive, it should not be used as an indicator. Thus, he chooses to use north-south dichotomy to discredit Atiku’s candidacy while relegating religion to the background because it does not favour the same-faith ticket of Tinubu. Nigerians are better informed on which of the candidates is the most insensitive to national unity. The idea therefore that Tinubu’s APC seems to be enjoying relative peace and cohesiveness is grossly misleading.
PARTY COHESIVENESS
In politics, it is not over until it is over. Prof. Oke should not rejoice over the threat of the G-5 Governors. It is instructive to note that while these Governors still remain members of the PDP and still have stakes in the 2023 elections, thousands of APC members are decamping to the PDP on daily basis most especially in the north where Nigerians are disgusted with the APC’s crass and monumental failure.
FORMIDABILITY OF OTHER FLAG-BEARERS
On this indicator, Prof. Oke believes that it is premature to judge the formidability or otherwise of the candidates. But he went ahead to assert that the fact of APC controlling most of the seats and slots being contested is a major plus for Tinubu and his party. The simple question to ask Prof. Oke is: how many seats and slots did Buhari have in 2015 when he won the election? The fact remains that Governors and legislators cannot vote themselves into office. It is the people that will vote them. Unfortunately for Tinubu and the APC, though they have most of the seats and slots, Nigerians have clearly rejected them.
HOMELAND SECURITY
In what seems like hallucination, Prof. Oke believes that candidates whose states are under security threat may not be trusted to provide national security. First, Atiku was never Governor of Adamawa state like Tinubu and Obi. So, this cannot be basis for consideration. In any case, the current relative security Lagos is enjoying cannot be attributed to Tinubu. There have been three Governors since Tinubu left office in 2007. Is Prof. Oke saying that these Governors lacked initiative and foresight? Second, the real issue to consider is the fact that the APC has failed woefully to provide security as promised. As far as homeland security is concerned, APC and Tinubu have failed, and do not seem to have any solution.
LEGACIES OF PAST LEADERSHIP
For want of ideas to further elucidate the popularity of his candidate, Prof. Oke resorts to repetition of an issue earlier dealt with under Political and Leadership Mentorship. However, let it be stated unequivocally, that Lagos is not the only state where non-indigenes have found political favour. The accommodating disposition of Lagos cannot be attributed to Tinubu because he himself is a beneficiary of the large heartedness of Lagos having come from elsewhere. Has Atiku helped people? The answer is YES. Were all of them from Adamawa state? The answer is NO. That is the kind of person Nigerians will trust.
STRATEGIC RELEVANCE OF INCUMBENCY
Prof. Oke thinks that Tinubu is advantaged on account of incumbency factor. During the days of election rigging, incumbency was a strong factor. It is important to recall that PDP lost is 2015 even with the power of incumbency. Recently, the sitting Governor of Osun state lost despite the power of incumbency at state and national levels. With the poor performance of APC, its rejection by Nigerians and the highly improved integrity of the electoral process, incumbency factor has lost its efficacy, and can no longer be an advantage.
ADAMAWA-ANAMBRA-LAGOS AS FACTORS
According to Prof. Oke this relates to home strengths of the candidates looking at their states in terms of population, size and other factors. He believes that APC-controlled Lagos state is much more strategic than Adamawa and Anambra because it will deliver more votes to Tinubu. This point no longer holds water for some good reasons. Election results in Lagos over the years have shown a progressive decline in the influence of Tinubu, and this can be seen in the narrowing of gap between APC and PDP in Lagos state in particular and in the southwest in general. The people of Lagos state are tired and weary of a one-man hegemony hoisted on them over the years. They are yearning for a change so that they can experience democratic freedom. There is no doubt that Atiku enjoys majority support in Adamawa state. As a true democrat, he has always encouraged the people to freely choose their leaders without any form of intimidation or coercion. This is what has endeared him into the hearts of the people, not just in Adamawa state but across the nation.
CONCLUSION
Prof. Oke concludes based on all the indicators, that Bola Ahmed Tinubu will win the presidential election with a wide margin. This postulation however does not agree with our analyses of all the issues. Apart from the monumental failure of APC and its total rejection, Tinubu has proved to Nigerians that he lacks the mental, physical and intellectual capacity to be president. Prof. Oke and his co-travelers should stop dreaming and be ready for “Electoral Tsunami” that will sweep away APC with its embodiment of misfortunes, bad luck and incompetence.