25/11/2024
Key Observations:
1. 2022 Peak and Cycle Shortening:
- The 2022 peak is identified as premature, likely driven by excess liquidity and euphoria in the market.
- This abnormality has led to a shortened market cycle (60 bars, 1857 days), disrupting the natural rhythm observed in previous cycles.
2. Trap Zone (1.5 Years):
- A trap zone lasting approximately 1.5 years is marked, signifying a potential period of consolidation or false upward moves.
- This phase could deter investors expecting quick recoveries, aligning with a correction or stabilization phase.
3. Semi-Bull Cycle (2029):
- The projection indicates that the next semi-bull cycle might begin around 2029.
- This aligns with the typical recovery pattern following a correction phase.
4. Next Super Cycle (2032):
- Based on historical patterns, the next major super cycle is anticipated around 2032. This reflects the long-term upward trajectory observed in NEPSE with a cycle duration of 8–10 years.
5. Historical Cycle Durations:
- Previous major cycles lasted:
*2007 Peak: 93 bars (~2830 days)
*2016 Peak: 95 bars (~2891 days)
*2022 Peak: 95 bars (~2922 days), but prematurely peaked.
- The relatively consistent durations suggest that 2024 should have been the logical peak, disrupted by 2022's early rise.
The NEPSE index follows a clear cyclical pattern, disrupted only by excess liquidity in 2022. (Note: liquidity is the mother of all bull run)
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