GMAT Updates

02/10/2021

25/05/2020

18/04/2020

Sharing details from Webinar during lockdown by Darshan Mehta, CEO of Reliance Brands Limited.
Key takeaways are as follows.
*General Outlook*
1. India seems to have supressed the curve so far. It looks like it might escape the worst of the pandemic, but will have to be cautious about it.
2. Possibility of W Curve – i.e. There is a good chance of re-occurrence of the virus, which could see a possibility of regular lockdowns. Businesses need to plan accordingly.
3. Capital will look for countries that are less battered. Western economies are badly battered while countries like India, Indonesia, etc are not so battered. Global Capital could flow into India, if we can act efficiently to pull it.
4. Emotional and Economic backlash against China is expected. Already, countries and companies are working on strategy to pivot away from China as part of their supply chains. Japan Govt has announced packages for it’s companies bringing back manufacturing home. Businesses need to keep this in mind and work accordingly.

*Discretionary Spending.*
1. For individuals, health and safety will become No.1 on their agenda from the 3rd of 4th place. There will be more spending on this area and reduction in other discretionary spends.
2. The ticket size of spending will drop for a while. People will spend on cheaper goods than on expensive goods, or delay spending for a while.
3. Extreme acceleration in digital economy. I.e. Home education, home entertainment, home fitness, etc
4. Loyalty shock. People will be less loyal towards brands as other aspects will take over. People will switch brands faster due to various other concerns like safety, etc.
5. General Trust deficit. There will be trust deficit amongst stakeholders like vendors, customers, employees, borrowers, banks, etc. Banks will have trust deficit with borrowers, companies will have trust deficit with suppliers, etc.

*Liquidity and P&L*
1. Segregate Good Costs and Bad Costs
a. Good costs (Eg. Digitization, tech costs, digital marketing, best employees, etc) need to be insulated and protected
b. Bad Costs (Eg. Fancy office, unnecessary spending, bad performers, traditional working methods) need to be ruthlessly eliminated. Don’t be emotional about non-core businesses. Concentrate on core business.
2. Be Frugal – Not necessary to have fancy office, fancy cars, excess employee strength, etc. Remove all the flab and be lean.
3. Maintain Good behaviour – have frank and open conversation with all stakeholders like suppliers, employees, etc and try to find the middle ground, so that the burden can be shared justly.
4. Be Future Ready – In this crisis, there will be winners and there will be losers. Those who re-orient their strategy will be winners.

*Govt Stimulus.*
1. Economy was in poor shape even before Covid. The govt has little leeway to provide large stimulus.
2. Govt earns about $60-70 billion a week from taxes. Imagine what a hit a 5-week lockdown will have. Size of Indian economy is about $3 Trillion. In some scenarios, it is predicted that Govt could take a hit of nearly $1 Trillion.
3. Inequality has already sharpened. The gap between rich and poor has further increased. Govt needs to concentrate on mass health and mass welfare. If not, 200 million people could sink into poverty.
4. Govt must explore printing currency (Quantitative easing), but there are limitations here. It has side effects like inflation, etc. Rich countries have more leeway for such quantitative easing.
5. Govt must concentrate on grabbing more capital from outside and do reforms to enable that.

*Result of backlash against China*
1. Internationally, there could be an emotional and economic backlash against China.
2. Businesses with supply chains passing through China will need to keep this in mind and insulate themselves and build alternatives.
3. India and Indian businesses need to try to become the contract manufacturer of the world, just like China is. India needs to make use of this opportunity smartly.
4. All big wealth funds and soverign funds will be awash with Liquidity. This liquidity needs to be attracted to India.
5. In every sector, there are good and bad companies. Management has to invest correctly in manufacturing and modern tech, be honest and fair to all stakeholders, etc., Those companies with good management and displaying good behaviour will come out victorious.

*Export Business*
1. Indian exporters need to build trust. They need live up to promises made. They need to deliver on time and deliver the promised quality. They shouldn’t make incorrect promises just to get more business.
2. Bangladesh export business has built trust and a good reputation. Despite a chequered past (low quality, human rights issues, etc) they have managed to overcome and are winning.

*Wholesale, Retail, etc.*
1. More people will prefer to buy from retail stores where there is perception of safety (Eg. Sanitation, cleanliness, crowds, etc). They will move more towards malls away from markets. Many will move towards online stores. Wholesale suppliers also need to concentrate on such retailers.
2. Customers also need to be ringfenced:
a. A high end restaurant in Delhi is giving 40% of bill value as a gift coupon to be used anytime upto December 2020.
b. Car companies are giving buy back offers, incase the customer loses his job in the next one year.
3. Pricing needs to be re-approached. People are looking for cheaper prices or cheaper goods.

*Brick & Mortar in Discretionary Spends.*
1. Cinemas could take a big hit in the near future. Entertainment could move home.
2. Because of this, cafes and restaurants might see some increase in business. Many chains are implementing measures like social distancing like lesser furniture, etc, to build confidence to consumers.
3. Smaller retailers need to send a message of safety. Eg: Have sanitisers, put up notice of no Covid positive employee found in the store, maintain social distancing, etc.
4. Since travel and tourism will take a big hit, connected purchases will also shift. Purchases that happened abroad will happen at home. (Eg. Electronics, Luxury goods and apparel, etc.,). But travel related purchases will drop.

*Real Estate*
1. Indian real estate economy is sitting on a huge inventory with a huge cost-of-carry
2. The industry is highly leveraged with low margins.
3. Unsold inventory is considered as an appreciating asset, but might turn out to be a flawed view.
4. Market was already overdue for a huge reset, which will be accelerated by the pandemic.
5. Also, the sharing and co-working space could be hit as more businesses try to have their own smaller spaces and more WFH employees.

*Jewellery etc.*
1. Gold-as-an-asset could see appreciation.
2. Jewelry, as a discretionary spend, will take a hit.
3. The Indian wedding industry will take a hit, as social distancing, cost consciousness, travel avoidance, etc., will prevent fat weddings, destination weddings, etc. This will hit all connected industries. (Eg. Silk, partywear, etc)

*Financial Markets*
1. There will be value destruction and value creation in different companies in the same sector.
2. High Debt low margin companies will find it difficult. (indicates risky or unscrupulous management)
3. High Debt high margin companies could be rewarded, but caution needs to be exercised. (may indicate sharp or dynamic management)
4. No debt high margin companies are best rewarded now.
5. Know more about the CEO and management and their actions and activities.
(Eg: 3 branches of Starbucks were kept open in India for last few days. The CEO of Starbucks India sat in the Fort (Mumbai) branch throughout the day to give his employees confidence and motivation)
6. New tech unicorns will be born. Those involved in cyber security, cloud services, online education services, etc.

*Forex Markets*
1. No doomsday scenario (i.e. Dollar will become 90 rupees etc). Such scenarios don’t seem realistic
2. Govt should be buying as much oil as possible, as such prices may never be seen in the future of oil.
3. As the western economies are more battered and Indian economy is less battered so far, there is more liquidity coming in. That’s why there is a rally in the market. This scenario could change depending on the spread of the disease in India.
4. Watch out for sharp spikes in the market. Better to avoid the spikes.

*Outlook for near future.*
*A. Large Companies*
a. Huge concern seen for employees. Companies are paying the employees even when closed.
b. HUL Decided not to cut a single rupee for their suppliers, service providers, etc. No haircuts.
c. Safety of employees and customers is becoming a major point of focus.
d. This is possible because they have reserves of funds, etc that have been built up over the years.

*B. Medium and Small businesses.*
a. They have to work with thin capital reserves. Excess capital is taken out of the business and applied into personal assets.
b. Small businesses take out the surplus and purchase personal assets instead of re-investing in the business. There are various factors and motivations here.
c. Because of this, they are unable to meet the cash expenses of even the next month.
d. A high end restaurant chain in Delhi (with Rs.40 crore annual turnover) is unable to pay the salaries of the current month as it has no liquid reserve. Owner has invested in personal assets like house in London, etc.
e. Medium and Small business need to have a look at how they can build some business reserves to endure such disruptions.

*“Force Majeure” in Contracts*
1. Should force majeure clauses be triggerd in various contracts like rent, supply, etc? It will lead to litigation, but there is no point in getting into litigation now.
2. All parties have been affected by the crisis. The tenants, the landlords, the lenders/financiers, etc.
3. Parties need to sit across the table and find a common ground and mutually decide upon the costs, rentals, etc. Burden has to be shared.

*Work From Home Scenario.*
1. It is possible for lot of employees to not visit the office and still be productive.
2. In RBL corporate office, it is found that it is enough that only 30% staff stay in the office. Others can be connected from homes. This leads to lesser commute expense, stress of the commute, time wasted, etc.,
3. Parents can take care of children more effectively when WFH. There can be dark hours when no calls will be made, etc.,

*Optimism*
As per a McKinsey survey of entrepreneurs released few days ago, 53% of Indian entrepreneurs are optimistic, while only 25% of Japanese entrepreneurs are optimistic.
It seems to be a mild U-Curve for the Indian economy.

18/04/2020

Basis the detailed guidelines issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs a short while ago.
*List of activities that shall be permitted from 20th April with strict norms of social distancing to be adhered to. These activities will not be permitted in hotspot or containment zones*

*Permitted activities:*

1. Health services including AYUSH
2. Agri related activities including horticulture to remain fully functional. This includes mandis, farm machinery shops, inter and intra state movement of harvest and sowing related machinery, manufacturing and distribution of fertilisers, seeds and pesticides
3. Coffee, tea plantation with max 50% staff
4. Fisheries and cold chain
5. Animal husbandry
6. Financial sector entities like banks, RBI, IRDA, SEBI and insurance companies
7. Anganwadis. old age homes and homes for the disabled
8. MGNREGA work with priority to irrigation and water conservation
9. Public utilities in Oil & Gas, postal, power and telecom
10. All goods traffic allowed to ply. Air transport to be used for cargo, land and sea ports
11. Movement of all trucks and goods carriers with 2 drivers and one helper .
12. Shop for truck repairs and dhabas on highways
13. Movement of staff and contractual labour for railways, airports, seaports, ICDs allowed on basis of pass authorisation
14. Print and electronic media including DTH
15. IT & IT enabled services with 50% staff
16. Call centres for government activities only
17. Courier services
18. Private security services
19. E commerce companies with permit passes
20. Services provided by self employed like electrician, plumbers, carpenters
21. Offices of state government, their autonomous bodies and local government
22. Offices of Government of India

*Following Industrial establishments to be permitted (govt and private both):*

1. Industries operating in rural areas
2. SEZs and EOUs with stay of workers on premises
3. Manufacturing units of essential goods including pharma
4. Food processing units
5. IT hardware manufacturing
6. Packaging material units
7. Jute industry
8. Oil & gas
9. Brick making in rural areas only

*Following Construction activities to be permitted:*
1. Construction of roads, irrigation projects, industrial projects including MSMEs in rural areas which are outside municipal limits
2. Renewable energy projects
3. Construction projects in municipal area where workers are available onsite only

14/04/2020

Some cool work from home insights for you:

Leave your Bed- Your bed is your sacred place where you spend time relaxing, watching T.V, doing stuff that recharges your mind and body after a stressful day.

Dedicated morning work- In the morning, our energy is high and our mind is fresh and cluttered.

Use a different browser for work - Use a different google chrome browser for work which has bookmarks, tabs and any extensions related to your work.

Off the music- It acts as a noise which stops us to think creatively and distracts us from a ”steady state of work” called Flow.

Afternoon learning/hobby time- Start investing this time into reading books or enhancing your knowledge by researching a particular subject/topic that interests you.

Communicate more, consume less: limit videos, newsfeed and social media and doubled down your communication time by staying in touch with people who are in your contact list.

Break your work in 25 minutes- Use the Pomodoro method by breaking up your working time into 25 minutes continuously, separated by a short 3-5 minutes of hydration or stretching break. use tomato-timer.com for this,

End the day by doing this- The last thing you can dedicate to is to write three important tasks you want to accomplish tomorrow.

TomatoTimer is a flexible and easy to use online Pomodoro Technique Timer

01/04/2020

Interestingly written: This quarantine is probably God's way of accepting a ton of wishes:

1. Kids: I wish we had no school and play all day - Done

2. Women: I want the undivided attention of my husband- Done

3. Husbands: I'm sick of this traffic, I wish I could work from home. Done

4. Working Moms: I wish I could spend some quality time with my kids and read Done

5.Students: I wish I had no exams? - Done

6. Old Parents: I wish our kids could spend more time with us rather than being busy everyday - Done

7. Employee: I'm slogging too much, need a break.- Done

8. Employers: I have no life of my own, I wish could relax Done

9. Mother Earth: I cant breathe, I wish I could get a break from all this pollution and chaos... Done

Yet we all complain- Beware what you wish - You might just get it! 😊

29/03/2020

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=8QyDmvuts9s

With Corona Pandemic on the rise in India and the world, Jeetu tries to make his dad realise the importance of strictly following the 21 day lockdown. Stay H...

29/03/2020

https://www.businessinsider.in/science/environment/news/coronavirus-lockdown-in-india-see-animals-return-to-the-streets-but-the-malabar-civet-is-not-one-of-them/articleshow/74875643.cms

Many animals have been spotted roaming the streets during the lockdown as traffic remains scarce on roads. Some posts on social media claim that the rare Malabar

29/03/2020

Italy and India registered their first POSITIVE case on 29th January.

As of now, Italy has more than 92000+ confirmed Covid19 cases, whereas India touched 1100 today.

So far, the Central and State Governments of India have handled the situation quite well compared to other countries.

29/03/2020

How far are you from the nearest CoronaVirus confirmed case?

Know this and verified stats about COVID19 in India on :
www.coronatracker.in

An agile, minimal and simple web app that tracks the outspread of COVID19 in India and the world

29/03/2020

This proves China was epicenter of the disease.

Identified as Wei Guixian, she was selling shrimps at the Huanan Seafood Market when she developed a cold.

29/03/2020

https://youtu.be/9RTOt2WFI8s

कैसे बढ़ता है कोरोना वाइरस शरीर में हर दिन

29/03/2020

કોરોનાવાયરસના દૈનિક લક્ષણો.

29/03/2020

https://youtu.be/EeO2SrOdTCE

कोरोना व्हायरस आपल्या शरीरामध्ये कसा वाढतो

29/03/2020

https://youtu.be/E0TwRCSZVTE

കൊറോണ വൈറസ് - ദിവസേന പ്രത്യക്ഷപ്പെടുന്ന ലക്ഷണങ്ങൾ - മലയാളം

29/03/2020

https://youtu.be/nrY_6RYAmJk

ಕೋರೋನ ವೈರಸಿನಿಂದದಿನ ದಿನವೂ ಕಾಣುವ ರೋಗ ಲಕ್ಷಣಗಳು

28/03/2020

* कोरोनावायरस पर नवीनतम जानकारी (28 मार्च 2020, शाम 5:45 बजे तक) * 👇

▪️ सक्रिय मामले: *819*
▪️ ठीक / अस्पताल से छुट्टी / देशांतर मामले: *80*
▪️ मृत्यु के मामले: *19*

* कृपया घर पर रहें और लॉकडाउन और सामाजिक दूरी की सलाह का पालन करें ताकि आप स्वयं, परिवार और समुदाय को सुरक्षित रख सके| *

* घबराने की जरूरत नहीं है। आवश्यक वस्तुएं, दवाएं आदि उपलब्ध है और रहेगा। *

28/03/2020

Every time we step out of our homes without a genuinely urgent reason, we cause this:

1. If we are carriers then we spread the virus wherever we go and increase probability of our neighbours getting affected.
2. If we are unaffected (not having symptoms doesn’t mean you are unaffected) we expose ourselves to infection and then bring it to our homes and community.
3. We encourage others to take our example and come out with an excuse that people are roaming around, practically breaking the streak of isolation.
4. We break a social promise we should be following as a responsible citizen.
5. We pose a grave risk to medical infrastructure by promoting probability of getting more people infected including ourselves. Surely, we or our family members do not want to be in a situation where we cannot get a bed or a ventilator as there are more patients than hospital beds/ventilators.
6. We increase risk of security and support staff getting the infection as some of us unknowingly contaminate common areas.
7. If we contact infection we end up becoming a host and increase life of the virus turning the whole social distancing exercise futile as the virus would bounce back after lockdown.
8. If number of cases would continue to increase, govt. would be forced to extend the lockdown and we would have contributed to this.

Let’s err on the side of caution and be responsible for next 2 most crucial weeks.

28/03/2020

Tata have contributed Rs 1,500 crore to fight Corona Virus.

Thank you Tata

28/03/2020

http://thedentalpen.com/coronavirus-symptoms-prepare-yourself/

It’s estimated that 60% of the population will get Covid-19. This article gives you 10 tips for preparing yourself for the Coronavirus symptoms.

28/03/2020

* कोरोनावायरस पर नवीनतम जानकारी (28 मार्च 2020, सुबह 3 बजे तक) * 👇

▪️ सक्रिय मामले: *748*
▪️ ठीक / अस्पताल से छुट्टी / देशांतर मामले: *67*
▪️ मृत्यु के मामले: *19*

* कृपया घर पर रहें और लॉकडाउन और सामाजिक दूरी की सलाह का पालन करें ताकि आप स्वयं, परिवार और समुदाय को सुरक्षित रख सके|*

* 21 दिन लॉकडाउन की अवधि : 25 मार्च से 14 अप्रैल 2020 तक *

* घबराने की जरूरत नहीं है। आवश्यक वस्तुएं, दवाएं आदि उपलब्ध है और रहेगा। *

27/03/2020

Unrestrained growth of any population, human or animal or virus, follows an exponential growth law, where the growth rate is proportional to the current size of the population. If you look at the logarithm of the population size, it will be a linear curve.

However, the critical word here is the first, "unrestrained". Such growth can only occur for a limited period of time, because populations require resources, primarily food, and once these start to get scarce, as they have to when a population gets large enough, the growth rate will slow and drop, sometimes to zero (meaning the population disappears).

In the natural world, if conditions are good, a species, like rabbits, will breed a lot and grow in numbers exponentially, but after a while, if there are no predators to keep their numbers down, they will eat all the grass or whatever they eat, most will starve to death, and the remainder will slowly regrow, to repeat the process, which is roughly cyclic.

This applies to humans, too. Human population is still growing exponentially, but eventually at this rate, it will become too big to feed, and many will starve to death or die of resulting disease or wars that may break out for limited food supplies. It makes more sense for humans to voluntarily limit their own populations to prevent this, rather than let nature limit it for them in very unpleasant ways.

In the case of viruses such as covid-19, their resources are human hosts, which can normally be infected only once, because they either die or survive and have immunity. Since there are only finitely many humans, if most of them get infected, then there are few left to infect, and the virus growth drops drastically, sometimes disappears entirely, as is evidence in the history of infectious disease, which is worth reading a lot about.

In unrestrained population growth, there is a proportionality constant c, where if r is the current growth rate and s is the current size, then r = c*s. c is a measure of how quickly it grows, growing slower for smaller c, faster for larger c.

In the case of viruses, c is a measure of how easily it is passed around, which is really a measure of the amount of interactions of its human hosts in a particular environment, which depends on culture and other things.

So c is more or less constant, but typically only locally, and for a period of time. If laws limit the number of human interactions, such as in a quarantine, that will make c much smaller. This is where social distancing plays an important part in fighting such a virus.

And, if many or most people get infected, then c becomes very much not constant, but will drop precipitously.

There is a complicating factor, because since viruses reproduce so rapidly, by the billions or trillions, mutations are common, and as happens in evolution, if a mutation helps its bearer survive, it will tend to be passed on, at the expense of less helpful variants.

So if it becomes harder for a virus to get passed around, as by quarantine or social distancing, this naturally selects for mutations that make the virus less deadly. That is, it is not in the interest of the virus to quickly kill or incapacitate its host, because then it cannot be spread as far and will die with its host. If you read the history of epidemic disease, you will find this happens commonly.

This appears to be happening now in areas where quarantine or social distancing are being applied. It means more people will get the virus, but it will kill less people. So by social distancing and the like, we are actively affecting the virus, actively fighting back.

27/03/2020

Please share with larger people to understand