Dhruv Research

27/12/2021

Dhruv Research is looking to hire dynamic individuals who have zeal to solve real business problems and build a company from scratch.

Apply for the same, if you are interested to work with us
https://www.iimjobs.com/j/dhruva-research-associate-senior-associate-manager-strategy-operations-0-7-yrs-1023864.html?ref=pp

30/03/2021

As we have already discussed in our previous post that various organisations have carried out opinion and exit polling to gauge voting intentions in India. Each survey tries to prove itself as the best by citing various parameters that suit it like largest sample size, its past accuracy in calling elections, the duration for which it has been in the field and therefore understands the “pulse of the public” etc. etc. All of these convenience based metrics end up further cluttering the issue instead of actually making it clear to people on which polls to trust.

Which Polls to trust?” This question has also baffled us at Dhruv Research. What are the objective parameters one can use to determine the accuracy levels of various pollsters? Are some pollsters objectively better than the others? These are the questions that led us to start working on this problem.

So we have collected the data for as many polls as possible. We compiled the Exit and Opinion poll data of 843 polls starting from 2005.We included only those polls which we were able to attribute to a polling agency. We removed the polls for which could only find out the media channels that carried them and not the polling agencies which conducted them, forcing us to revise our number downwards to 705.

In our study we find that AxisMyIndia is the most accurate pollster in India on the basis of seat prediction and vote share prediction. Axis MyIndia, which had had a consistent track record of correctly predicting the elections in at least, last 2 years including the 2019 Lok Sabha.

To check the methodology of pollster rank calculation, read the full article by “Dhruv Research”.
LInk: https://dhruvresearch.com/pollster_ranking

26/02/2021

26/02/2021

20/02/2021

Various organizations have carried out the opinion and exit polling to gauge voting intentions in India. In the last decade, there has been an explosion in the number of polling agencies and election forecasters in the country.

So the major question that hits the mind is:

“How many polls are conducted in India?”

So we have listed all agencies first which conduct opinion and exit polls in India. The number of polls available online is very less for the period before 2010. However, we were able to get a considerable number of polls from 2014 onwards.

Here are the name of some common pollsters in India: , 's_Chanakya, , , , , , ,

Stay tuned for knowing the ranking of these pollsters

13/02/2021

Every time an election takes place in India (which is quite frequent), TV screens and newspaper pages are flooded with opinion polls, exit polls and other such surveys trying to predict winners and losers. Each Pollster and survey tries to prove itself as the best by citing various parameters.

This issue got flared up again recently when nearly all pollsters got the exit poll for Bihar Assembly election 2020 wrong. Most pollsters expected RJD led Mahagathbandhan to win while some called a close contest with edge to Mahagathbandhan over National Democratic Alliance. Actual result, however, was a close contest with a narrow NDA victory.

So the most common question among us is “Can we trust the Poll?” And, maybe more to the point, “Which polls can I trust?

If you also think the same please share your opinion in the comment box.

11/01/2021

In 2018, Government Restrictions on Religion Reach was Highest Level Globally.