Stats for Lefties

11/08/2023

🏳️‍🌈 8 in 10 cisgender le***an women view trans people positively.

✅ Positive 84%
❌ Negative 6%

Via YouGov, 30 May - 17 June 2023

04/07/2023

🚨 NEW: YouGov approval ratings show that Corbyn is now the most popular current / former Labour leader, beating Starmer and Blair.

⚪️ Corbyn 30% (+11)
🔴 Starmer 29% (-2)
🔴 Brown 27% (-2)
🔴 Blair 24% (-4)
🔴 Miliband 21% (+2)

Via YouGov, Apr-Jun 2023 (+/- vs Jan-Mar)

03/07/2023

🗳️ Should the UK government recognise Palestine as an independent state?

✅ Should ~ 40%
❌ Should not ~ 8%

Via , 15-16 May

03/07/2023

🗳️ In May 2023, the Greens won Lancaster and Wyre.

🟢 GRN 34% (+2)
🔴 LAB 32% (-1)
🔵 CON 25% (-7)
🟠 LD 3% (+1)
⚪️ OTH 6% (+5)

Greens now hold 18 of 42 seats in the new parliamentary constituency (+8), vs Labour's 10 (-4).

+/- from 2019 local elections

01/07/2023

🚨 BREAKING: Labour leads in Mid Bedfordshire by-election, according to new constituency poll.

🔴 LAB 28% (+6)
🔵 CON 24% (-36)
⚪️ IND 19% (+19)*
🟠 LD 15% (+2)
🟣 REF 10% (+10)

*Gareth Mackey, local independent

Lab GAIN from Con (21% swing)

Via Opinium, June 2023

18/04/2023

🎧 PODCAST: "Post-Sturgeon Blues"

In episode 21 of the Stats for Lefties podcast, I interviewed left-wing SNP activist Cameron Archibald.

We discussed the SNP's future post-Sturgeon: https://buff.ly/3L9s4yR

17/04/2023

🗳️ NEW: Labour lead rises to 17pts

🔴 LAB 46% (+1)
🔵 CON 29% (-2)
🟠 LD 8% (-)
🟣 REF 5% (+1)
🟡 SNP 4% (-)
🟢 GRN 3% (-)

----

🔴 Labour majority of 222 seats

Via Survation, 29 Mar-2 April (+/- vs 24 Mar)

13/04/2023

🗳️ GB voting intention - Labour lead by 17pts

🔴 LAB 44% (-2)
🔵 CON 27% (+1)
🟠 LD 9% (-)
🟢 GRN 7% (-)
🟣 REF 6% (-1)
🟡 SNP 4% (+1)

----

🔴 Labour majority of 200 seats

Via YouGov, 5-6 Apr (+/- vs 29-30 Mar)

03/04/2023

🗳️ Labour lead by 21pts (344-seat majority)

🔴 LAB 48% (+3)
🔵 CON 27% (-3)
🟠 LD 9% (-1)
🟣 REF 5% (+1)
🟡 SNP 4% (-)
🟢 GRN 4% (-)

LAB 497 seats (+295), CON 70 (-295)

Via DeltapollUK, 31 Mar-3 Apr (+/- vs 24-27 Mar)

30/03/2023

🖊️ NEW ARTICLE: for Patreon supporters, I look at what the polls told us in March.

Labour's lead finally dipped below 20pts, and Sunak showed some signs of improvement: https://buff.ly/3JZnrp1

29/03/2023

🗳️ Labour lead by 14pts (120-seat majority)

🔴 LAB 45% (-1)
🔵 CON 31% (-)
🟠 LD 8% (-)
🟡 SNP 4% (-)
🟣 REF 4% (-)
🟢 GRN 3% (+1)

LAB 385 seats (+183), CON 184 (-181)

Via Survation, 23-24 Mar (+/- vs 17-20 Mar)

25/03/2023

🗳️ Labour lead by 15pts (120-seat majority)

🔴 LAB 44% (-2)
🔵 CON 29% (+4)
🟠 LD 10% (+4)
🟣 REF 6% (-3)
🟢 GRN 5% (-2)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)

LAB 385 seats (+183), CON 177 (-188)

Via Omnisis, 23-24 Mar (+/- vs 15 Mar)

23/03/2023

🗳️ When MPs discussed the Tories' Section 35 order (which blocked self-ID for trans people in Scotland), MPs had the chance to vote against it.

Labour abstained.

20/03/2023

🚨 BREAKING: Lab lead *drops* from 23pts to 10pts

🔴 LAB 45% (-5)
🔵 CON 35% (+8)
🟠 LD 7% (-2)
🟡 SNP 4% (+1)
🟢 GRN 4% (-)
🟣 REF 3% (-1)

Lab 329 seats (+127), Con 245 seats (-120)

Via DeltaPoll, 17-20 Mar (+/- since 10-13 Mar)

20/03/2023

🗳️ Who would you trust more to manage the economy?

🔵 Sunak and Hunt: 29%
🔴 Starmer and Reeves: 27%
---
⚪️ Neither / unsure: 43%

Via OpiniumResearch, 15-17 Mar

19/03/2023

🗳️ Who would make the best Prime Minister?

🔵 Rishi Sunak: 28% (+2)
🔴 Keir Starmer: 26% (-2)
---
⚪️ Neither / unsure: 46% (-)

Via OpiniumResearch, 15-17 Mar (+/- since 1-3 Mar)

19/03/2023

🚨 NEW: Lab lead by 15pts (124-seat majority)

🔴 LAB 44% (-)
🔵 CON 29% (+2)
🟠 LD 8% (+1)
🟣 REF 7% (-1)
🟢 GRN 6% (-1)
🟡 SNP 3% (-)

Lab 387 seats (+185), Con 179 seats (-186)

Via Opinium, 15-17 Mar (+/- since 1-3 Mar)

08/02/2023

🖊️ NEW PATREON ARTICLE

In this piece for patrons, I look at the polls in January and summarise where things stand.

Official Post from Stats for Lefties

30/01/2023

🚨 NEW: Poll suggests Labour majority of 334 seats

🔴 LAB 49% (+2)
🔵 CON 28% (+2)
🟠 LD 8% (-1)
🟣 REF 5% (-1)
🟢 GRN 5% (+1)
🟡 SNP 4% (-1)

Labour would win 492 seats (+334), with Tories reduced to 71 seats (-294).

Via Redfield and Wilton, 27 Jan (+/- since 22 Jan)

30/01/2023

🚨 NEW: Poll suggests Tories would win just 23 seats (-342)

🔴 LAB 51% (+2)
🔵 CON 26% (+3)
🟠 LD 9% (-4)
🟡 SNP/PC 6% (-)
🟢 GRN 5% (+2)

Labour would win 537 seats (+335), with Tories on 23 (-342). SNP (49) would be main opposition

Via IpsosUK, 18-25 Jan (+/- since 7-13 Dec)

30/01/2023

🚨 NEW: Poll suggests Labour majority of 312 seats

🔴 LAB 47% (+1)
🔵 CON 26% (-1)
🟠 LD 8% (-1)
🟣 REF 7% (+1)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 4% (-)

Labour would win 481 seats (+279), with Tories reduced to 81 seats (-284).

Via techneUK, 26 Jan (+/- since 18-19 Jan)

26/01/2023

🚨 NEW: Poll suggests Tories would win just 10 seats (-355)

🔴 LAB 50% (+5)
🔵 CON 21% (-)
🟠 LD 8% (-1)
🟣 REF 7% (-1)
🟢 GRN 4% (-5)

Labour would win 549 seats (+347). Con (10) would be fourth behind SNP (50) and LDs (19).

Via PeoplePolling, 24 Jan (+/- since 18 Jan)

25/01/2023

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Scottish voting intention for GE2024 if SNP fight it as de facto IndyRef:

🟡 SNP 52% (+7)
🔴 LAB 23% (+4)
🔵 CON 12% (-13)
🟠 LD 7% (-3)
🟢 GRN 2% (+1)

Seats (new boundaries):

🟡 SNP 56 (+8)
🔴 LAB 1 (-)
🔵 CON 0 (-6)
🟠 LD 0 (-2)

Via FindoutnowUK, 11-18 Jan (+/- vs 2019)

23/01/2023

🗳️ Poll suggests Labour majority of 300+

🔴 LAB 48% (+1)
🔵 CON 26% (-1)
🟠 LD 9% (-1)
🟣 REF 6% (-)
🟡 SNP 5% (+1)
🟢 GRN 4% (-1)

Labour would win 496 seats (+294), a majority of 342.

Via , 22 Jan (+/- since 15 Jan)

18/01/2023

🗳️ Poll suggests Labour majority of around 150 seats.

🔴 LAB 45% (-)
🔵 CON 29% (-2)
🟠 LD 10% (+1)
🟡 SNP 5% (+2)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟣 REF 4% (+1)

Labour would win 402 seats (+200), a majority of 154 seats.

Via , 12-16 Jan (+/- since 8 Jan)

03/01/2023

🗳️ Midlands seat projection, December 2022:

🔴 LAB 88 (+65)
🔵 CON 16 (-65)

New boundaries used (+/- since 2019 notional results)

31/12/2022

🗳️ London seat projection, December 2022:

🔴 LAB 71 (+20)
🟠 LD 4 (+1)
🔵 CON 0 (-21)

New boundaries used (+/- since 2019 notional results)

31/12/2022

🗳️ December 2022 seat estimate (+/- since 2019):

🔴 LAB 473 (+271)
🔵 CON 83 (-282)
🟡 SNP 53 (+5)
🟠 LD 19 (+8)
🟢 PC 2 (-2)
🟢 GRN 1 (-)
⚪️ OTH 19 (-)

Labour majority of 296 seats.

Interactive map: https://statsforlefties.com/uk-mps/

29/12/2022

🚨 NEW: Labour lead by 24pts, would win 500+ seats.

🔴 LAB 48% (-)
🔵 CON 24% (+1)
🟠 LD 9% (+1)
🟣 REF 8% (-1)
🟢 GRN 5% (-)
🟡 SNP 4% (-1)

Labour would win 504 seats (+302), with Tories reduced to 50 (-315). SNP = main opposition.

Via YouGov, 20-21 Dec (+/- since 14-15 Dec)

26/12/2022

SNP would win 53 seats (+5), says a new survey.

🟡 SNP 45% (-)
🔴 LAB 28% (-2)
🔵 CON 17% (+2)
🟠 LD 6% (+1)

This would give the SNP 53 seats (+5), with Labour on 3 (+2), the LDs on 1 (-1) and Tories on 0 (-6).

Via Panelbase, 14-15 Dec