Blog.investing for survival

08/01/2021

The December ISM nonmanufacturing index came in at 57.2 versus estimates of 54.6.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/01/07/ism-services-increase-in-december-better-than-forecast

December nonfarm payrolls fell 140,000 versus expectations of a 71,000 increase.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/huge-december-payrolls-miss-140000-jobs-lost-worst-month-april

International

November Japanese household spending declined 1.8% versus predictions of -1.3%; November leading economic indicators were 96.6 versus 94.3 in October.
November German industrial production was up 0.9% versus forecasts of +0.7%.

The November EU unemployment rate was 8.3% versus consensus of 8.5%.

07/01/2021

The Morning Call

1/6/21

The Market

Technical

Wednesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/big-tech-bonds-battered-bitcoin-bid-blue-wave-gold-pumpedndumped

Will the dollar weakness continue?
http://www.capitalspectator.com/is-a-weak-us-dollar-a-key-macro-theme-for-2021/ -15317

The dollar’s technical picture may be changing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/clmfdfvwux

Global economy braces for $13 trillion in debt maturities.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/worlds-biggest-economies-prepare-13-trillion-debt-maturity-wall

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

Weekly jobless claims rose 787,000 versus expectations of 800,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/jobless-claims-improved-last-week-thanks-odd-plunge-illinois

November factory orders rose 1.0% versus projections of +0.7%.

The December final services PMI was reported at 54.8 versus estimates of 55.3; the composite PMI was 55.3 versus 55.7.

December light vehicle sales came in at 16.3 million versus November’s figure of 15.5 million.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/01/december-vehicles-sales-increased-to.html

International

November German factory orders rose 2.3% versus consensus of -1.2%.

November EU retail sales fell 6.1% versus predictions of -3.4%.



December EU consumer confidence was reported at 45.5 versus 45.6 in November; German consumer confidence was 47.1 versus 45.6; UK consumer confidence was 54.6 versus 55.0.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/saxo-chart-week-oecd-private-sector-confidence

December EU economic sentiment was 90.4 versus forecasts of 90.0; industrial sentiment was -7.2 versus -8.1; services sentiment was -17.4 versus -15.0.

The December EU construction PMI was 45.5 versus 45.6 in November; the German construction PMI was 47.1 versus 45.6; the UK construction PMI was 54.5 versus 55.0.

Other

For the economic optimists.
https://www.worth.com/what-to-expect-of-economy-in-2021/

Saudi Arabia cuts oil production to allow Russia to increase its own.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/05/business/energy-environment/opec-plus-oil-prices.html

Heavy truck sales down 5% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2021/01/us-heavy-truck-sales-down-5-year-over.html

The Fed

The Fed released the minutes of its latest FOMC meeting yesterday. The tone was more upbeat on the economy than its predecessors, though the Fed left rates and QE unchanged, and, indeed, suggested that neither would change until well into 2021 or even 2022. So, QEInfinity will continue.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fomc-minutes-2

Here is some additional commentary.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-fomc-has-begun-envision-how-it-will-taper-qe

Bottom line. We are in a delicate balancing act right now. Valuations continue to push into the stratosphere. On the other hand, the Fed continues to pump liquidity into the markets. Plus, fiscal policy appears to be headed into a more expansionary phase. As this author points out, it is impossible to know when investor sentiment will begin to factor in price; so, equities can reach even higher valuations But that will only increase the magnitude of the ensuing mean reversion in price. At the moment, I am 50% invested; most of my holdings are in low P/E, high yielding stocks, along with some gold. Caution.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2021/01/05/waiting-for-the-last-dance

Counterpoint.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2021/01/05/one-of-the-great-bubbles-of-financial-history/

Update on valuations.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/01/06/is-the-market-still-overvalued

‘Cash on the sidelines’ is hogwash.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/investors-are-waiting-for-cash-on-the-sidelines-to-juice-the-stock-market-this-is-why-that-idea-is-hogwash-11609795905?mod=home-page

Contrarian tilts for your portfolio.
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/1016672/contrarian-tilts-for-your-portfolio

The case against value stocks.
https://blog.validea.com/the-case-against-value-stocks-part-ii/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

MSC Industrial Direct (NYSE:MSM): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.10 beats by $0.01; GAAP EPS of $0.69 misses by $0.36.
Revenue of $771.9M (-6.3% Y/Y) in-line.
CVS Health (NYSE:CVS) declares $0.50/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

What I am reading today



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Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

18/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/18/20

I am taking off thru New Year’s. Hope everyone has a happy and safe holiday.

The Market

Technical

Thursday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dollar-slump-sparks-surge-small-caps-lumber-copper-crypto-gold

This is a bit ‘techie’ but it still gives you an idea of what the quants think short term.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/sp-call-wall-rises-3750-ahead-25-billion-quad-witch-spotgamma

The dollar and inflation.
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/12/debasing-the-dollar-or-inflation-looming-again

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

The December Kansas City Fed manufacturing index came in at 12 versus November’s reading of 20.

International

November Japanese CPI was down 0.4% after being down 0.1% in October.

November German PPI rose 0.2% versus estimates of up 0.1%; the December business climate index was reported at 92.1 versus 90.0.

November UK retail sales declined 3.8% versus expectations of -4.2%, ex fuel, they were down 2.6% versus -3.3%; December consumer confidence was -26 versus -31.

Other

The coronavirus

How the ‘experts’ got it all wrong (must read):
https://www.aier.org/article/the-decimal-point-that-blew-up-the-world/

And still are.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/tom-woods-virus-your-fault

And it is no wonder.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/seriously-gunshot-deaths-counted-among-covid-19-fatalities-colorado

Still more cavalry in on the way---FDA gives thumbs up to Moderna vaccine.
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/fda-advisory-panel-confirms-modernas-covid-19-vaccine-benefits-outweigh-risks

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG) declares $0.375/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.

FedEx (NYSE:FDX): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $4.83 beats by $0.82; GAAP EPS of $4.55 beats by $0.60.
Revenue of $20.6B (+19.1% Y/Y) beats by $1.15B.

What I am reading today

Oldest carving in East Asia found.
Oldest carving in East Asia found. But its maker is a mystery. (nationalgeographic.com)

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

16/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/16/20

The Market

Technical

Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-soar-stimulus-hope-smart-money-dollar-puke

The latest Fund Manager Survey.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/record-wall-street-euphoria-triggers-first-bofa-sell-signal-february-2020

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

Weekly mortgage applications rose 1.1% while purchase applications were up 1.8%.

Month to date retail sales grew slightly faster than in the prior week.

November industrial production rose 0.4% versus forecasts of up 0.3%; capacity utilization was 73.3% versus 72.9%.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/15/the-big-four-industrial-production-increase-in-november

November retail sales fell 1.1% versus projections of -0.3%; ex autos, they were down 0.9% versus +0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/us-retail-sales-disappoint-tumble-most-april

International

The October EU trade balance was E30.0 billion versus expectations of E28.0 billion; construction output fell 1.4% versus +0.8%; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 55.5 versus 53.0; the services PMI was 47.3 versus 41.0; the composite PMI was 49.8 versus 45.8.

The November Japanese trade balance was Y366.8 billion versus predictions of Y529.0 billion; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 49.7 versus 50.0; the services PMI was 47.2 versus 48.5; the composite PMI was 48.0 versus 49.0.

November UK CPI was -0.1% versus estimates of +0.1%; PPI was 0 versus +0.4%; the December flash manufacturing PMI was 57.3 versus 55.0; the services PMI was 49.9 versus 50.5; the composite PMI was 50.7 versus 51.0.

The November German flash manufacturing PMI was 58.6 versus consensus of 56.4; the service PMI was 52.5 versus 50.4; the composite PMI was 52.5 versus 50.4

Other

We are richer than ever. So says my favorite optimist. But it is only because financial asset prices are inflated. As proof, I offer you chart #7 in this piece. Notice that the S&P is almost touching the upper boundary of its long term uptrend. Notice also what historically has happened after following such an occurrence.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2020/12/were-richer-than-ever.html

The only fair trade is free trade.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/just-to-remind-the-only-fair-trade-is-free-trade

Spending breakdown of US households.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/the-consumer-spending-of-american.html #.X9kLrNhKiM8

Global oil refining crisis will worsen this winter.
https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/global-oil-refinery-crisis-will-worsen-winter

Central Banks

The ECB’s latest mistake.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/ecbs-latest-big-mistake

The coronavirus

This is a must read analysis of the Pfizer vaccine study.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/an-internal-medicine-doctor-and-his-peers-read-the-pfizer-vaccine-study-and-see-red-flags.html

China

Trade with China roars.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/14/business/economy/us-china-trade-covid.html

Bank of China makes record liquidity injection.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/china-injects-record-950-billion-yuan-medium-term-liquidity-after-bond-defaults

Bottom line. Be sure you have your greed under control.
https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2020/12/15/the-most-powerful-motivator/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Franklin Resources (NYSE:BEN) declares $0.28/share quarterly dividend, 3.7% increase from prior dividend of $0.27.
Goldman upgrades Exxon.
Exxon upgraded at Goldman in second Buy rating this week (NYSE:XOM) | Seeking Alpha

What I am reading today



Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

15/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/15/20

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/americas-v-day-sparks-safe-haven-protection-buying-stocks-sell-news

Low interest rates do not justify higher stock prices.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/shiller-ecy-justification-sky-high-stock-prices

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

The December NY Fed manufacturing index was reported at 4.9 versus estimates of 5.9.

International

October UK average earnings rose 2.7% versus consensus of +2.2%; unemployment was 4.9% versus 5.1%.

November YoY Chinese fixed asset investments were up 2.6%, in line; industrial production was up 7%, also in line; retail sales were up 5.0% versus 5.2%; November unemployment was 5.2% versus 5.5%

Other

Update on seven high frequency indicators on the economy.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/seven-high-frequency-indicators-for_14.html

Mass evictions expected at end of January.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/expect-most-evictions-history-ban-expires

Ed Yardini on inflation prospects.
http://blog.yardeni.com/2020/12/inflation-was-sooo-1970s-will-it-roar.html

More on the likelihood of inflation.
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/12/inflation-looming-phillips-curve-vs-quantity-theory

Could stagnation be coming to an end?
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/12/why-did-the-great-stagnation-end.html

Or getting worse?
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/12/14/the-probability-of-stagflation-is-rising-1

EU wobbles while France holds it hostage.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eu-continues-wobble-while-france-holds-it-ransom

The Fed

Two words.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/convoy-investments-bull-market-our-lifetime-explained-two-words

Global negative yielding debt tops $ 18 trillion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/negative-yielding-debt-exceeds-18-trillion-global-market-cap-hits-100-trillion

Bottom line. Upgrade the quality of your portfolio.
https://alephblog.com/2020/12/11/yield-poison-4/

What Bogle and Buffett both got right.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stockpicking-legend-warren-buffett-and-index-champion-john-bogle-both-knew-the-other-was-right-about-investing-2020-12-10?mod=home-page

2020 investing lessons.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/12/my-2020-investing-lessons/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

What I am reading today

More wisdom from Morgan Housel.
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/sure/

The story of Dave Brubeck’s ‘Take Five’.
https://www.npr.org/2000/11/19/1114201/take-five

Treasure hunter stays in jail five years rather than reveal location of loot. The story of the incredible effort to locate and retrieve the gold in this treasure ship can be read in ‘Ship of Gold in the Deep Blue Sea’. It is a great book.
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/treasure-hunter-stays-5-years-jail-rather-reveal-location-gold-coins-worth-millions

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

11/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/11/20

The Market

Technical

Thursday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-black-gold-bid-stocks-skid-negative-nattering-nabobs-battle-new-issue-nirvana

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

The November budget deficit was $145 billion versus estimates of $200 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-starts-fiscal-2021-largest-two-month-budget-deficit-record

November PPI rose 0.1% versus expectations of up 0.2%; core PPI was up 0.1% versus +0.2%.


International

November YoY Chinese vehicle sales were up 12.6% versus consensus of up 11.5%.

November German CPI increased 0.8%, in line.

Other

Hotel occupancy down 38% YoY.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/hotels-occupancy-rate-declined-379-year.html

Household net worth up $3.8 trillion in Q3.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2020/12/feds-flow-of-funds-household-net-worth.html

Lumber prices shooting up again.
https://www.axios.com/lumber-market-housing-demand-82ee55a0-24fd-4561-a92d-2dcc6b7ea366.html

Five charts make the case for higher commodity prices.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/12/09/five-charts-that-make-the-case-for-a-bull-market-in-commodities

Johnson says Brexit deal may not happen.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-eu-impose-emergency-plans-prevent-economic-chaos-should-brexit-talks-fail

The coronavirus

The pandemic and productivity.
https://www.aei.org/economics/of-pandemics-and-productivity/

The pandemic public debt dilemma.
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pandemic-spending-debt-dilemma-by-michael-spence-and-danny-leipziger-2020-12

China

Update on US/China trade numbers.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/us-china-trade-soared-above-pandemic.html #.X9Jy1dhKiM8

Bottom line. Treasury market expects higher inflation. Will hard data follow?
http://www.capitalspectator.com/treasury-market-expects-higher-inflation-will-hard-data-follow/

Commercial real estate market faces significant headwinds.
https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/work-home-threatens-commercial-real-estate-valuations

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Oracle (NYSE:ORCL): FQ2 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.06 beats by $0.06; GAAP EPS of $0.80 beats by $0.04.
Revenue of $9.8B (+2.0% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) declares $0.24/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What I am reading today

Corporations and civil disobedience.
http://pointsandfigures.com/2020/12/09/corporations-and-civil-disobedience/

The looming problem with the ‘on demand’ economy.
https://www.ft.com/content/5a817da3-c55f-4b6f-8375-6c18db0406f2

Geomagnetic storm to dazzle the night sky.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-coming-geomagnetic-storm-dazzle-night-sky

Quote of the day.
Bonus Quotation of the Day... - Cafe Hayek

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

10/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/10/20

The Market

Technical

Wednesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/dash-double-trashes-tech-dollar-bid-sparks-bullion-bitcoin-breakdown

Uptrends everywhere.
https://sentimentrader.com/blog/uptrends-uptrends-everywhere/

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

Weekly jobless claims were 853,000 versus consensus of 725,000.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/initial-jobless-claims-jump-most-march-lockdowns-strike

October wholesale sales rose 1.1% versus expectations of up 0.9%; sales rose faster lowering the inventory to sales ratio.

The October JOLTS (job openings) report showed 6.652 million jobs available versus predictions of 6.3 million.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2020/12/09/job-openings-labor-turnover-october-2020-update

November CPI came in at +0.2% versus estimates of +0.1%.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cpi-comes-hotter-expected-hotel-airline-fares-used-car-prices-drop

International

The October UK trade balance was -L1.7 billion versus projections of +L0.5 billion; industrial production was up 1.3% versus +0.3%; manufacturing production was up 1.7% versus +0.3%; GDP growth was +0.4%, in line.

November Japanese PPI was flat, in line.

Other

ECB keeps its version of QEInfinity/Forever on track.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ecb-boosts-qe-eu500bn-euro-jumps-lack-dovish-surprises

The coronavirus

Update on the coronavirus stats.
https://politicalcalculations.blogspot.com/2020/12/nine-months-of-coronavirus-pandemic-in.html #.X9EpMmhKiM8

Free market vaccines.
https://johnhcochrane.blogspot.com/2020/12/free-market-vaccines.html

China

Tensions continue to rise.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-slaps-sanctions-travel-restrictions-us-officials-feud-over-hong-kong-intensifies

Falling behind.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/america-surrenders-china

Bottom line. Rising inflation expectations.
https://thereformedbroker.com/2020/12/09/inflation-expectations-now-above-pre-pandemic-levels/

I have noted in our discussions about the bond market that a gradually rising rate of inflation (interest rates) has historically been a good thing for the stock Market because it generally denotes an improving economy (corporate profitability) but without significant wage or raw material price pressures. A spiking inflation rate usually indicates the aforementioned price pressures; and that has not proven to be a plus for equities Given the pin action in bonds, the dollar, commodities and gold, it appears that investors believe that an increase in inflation may be in the offing. If that proves to be the case, then investors will soon (may have already) begin to deal with the initial rate of increase; and then, if it is thankfully low, the timing of any acceleration in the rate of increase.

If we are lucky enough for inflation to behave tamely, then all will remain well in stock land (all other things being equal); though there could be a brief period of uncertainty until it is clear that inflation is under control. However, if the alternative scenario develops, it could very well initiate the mean reversion process that I harp on repeatedly. And I want to emphasize that such a reversion would NOT be an overvalued Market in an otherwise stable economy but rather an overvalued Market in an economy whose growth has been for the last decade, is and will continue to be throttled by too much debt (see below) and a grossly irresponsible monetary policy. In short, a mean reversion to a faltering mean.

I am not saying that this is imminent. Indeed, as long as the Fed pumps in liquidity and the Markets believe that is a positive---meaning bond markets remain stable---then QE will remain the key determinant of stock price direction. But if inflation (interest rates) continues to increase, it will likely mark the beginning of the end. How long ‘the end’ lasts is unknowable right now. But rapidly rising inflation coupled with loss of faith in the Fed would likely trigger the end of the end.

Drowning in debt.
https://247wallst.com/business/2020/12/08/companies-are-drowning-in-cash-and-in-debt/

JP Morgan doubles down on bitcoin.
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/jpmorgan-doubles-down-bitcoin-sees-structural-gold-crypto-flow-over-coming-years

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Exxon surges after DE Shaw goes activist.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/exxon-surges-after-de-shaw-goes-activist
Cisco (NASDAQ:CSCO) declares $0.36/share quarterly dividend, in line with previous.
What I am reading today

Linguistic inflation.
https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/welcome-to-the-linguistic-inflation-of-the-joseph-rowntree-foundation

Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

09/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/9/20

The Market

Technical

Tuesday in the charts.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-stocks-bullion-bid-complacency-careens-beyond-dot-com-highs

Margin debt confirms market exuberance.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/margin-debt-confirms-market-exuberance

December is the best month of the year for stocks.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yes-december-best-month-stocks-when-december

Short call buying accelerates.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/snowflake-market-cap-surpasses-ibm-amd

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

Weekly mortgage applications fell 1.2%; purchase applications were down 5.0%.

The November small business optimism index was reported at 101.4 versus predictions of 105.0.

International

October Japanese machinery orders rose 17.1% versus estimates of up 2.8%.

The October German trade balance was E18.2 billion versus forecasts of E18.0 billion.

November Chinese CPI declined 0.6% versus consensus of -0.2% (must read).
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/deflation-back-china-cpi-turns-negative-first-time-financial-crisis

Other

Breakeven inflation is breaking out.
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2020/12/08/breakeven-inflation-is-breaking-out

More on inflation.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/inflation-back-big-time

Q4 nowcast still shows moderate growth.
http://www.capitalspectator.com/moderate-growth-outlook-holds-for-us-gdp-in-q4/

The problem with the ‘Great Reset’.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/great-reset-and-plans-global-war-savings

The Fed

Stocks on a long monetary leash.
https://global-macro-monitor.com/2020/12/07/stocks-on-a-monetary-leash/

Fiscal Policy

Our national debt denial.
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/12/our-national-debt-denial/?utm_source=fndee&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=fee_partnership

The coronavirus

The vaccine works.
https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2020/12/the-vaccine-works-fast.html

Millions of tenants headed for eviction in January.
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2020/12/millions-of-tenants-headed-for-absolute-disaster-after-new-year-owing-average-of-nearly-6000-in-rent-and-utilities.html

Bottom line.

Home country bias.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-no-1-investment-mistake-retirement-savers-are-making-vanguard-study-11607365577?mod=home-page

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Mastercard's (NYSE:MA) board allows the company to buy back up to $6 billion of its class A common shares under a new share repurchase authorization.
The board also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $$ cents per share, up 10% from its previous dividend.

What I am reading today



Visit Investing for Survival’s website (http://investingforsurvival.com/home) to learn more about our Investment Strategy, Prices Disciplines and Subscriber Service.

Investing for Survival provides portfolio management strategies and services to investors. Visit investingforsurvival.com to learn more about our services.

08/12/2020

The Morning Call

12/8/20

The Market

Technical

Monday in the charts. Notable, despite being up on the day, the long bond closed below the lower boundary of its very short term uptrend, negating that trend, meaning higher rates ahead.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bonds-bullion-bid-stocks-skid-stimulusvaccine-stumble

From bond vigilantes to bond zombies.
http://blog.yardeni.com/2020/12/the-carrie-trade-from-bond-vigilantes.html

The puzzle of low interest rates.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/04/business/low-interest-rates-puzzle.html

Fundamental

Headlines

The Economy

US

Month to date retail chain store sales grow fell dramatically from the prior week.

October consumer credit grew $7.2 billion versus estimates of +$16 billion.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/consumer-credit-misses-badly-americans-unexpectedly-pay-down-credit-card-debt-october

Q3 nonfarm productivity increased 4.6% versus consensus of up 4.9%; unit labor costs fell 6.6% versus -8.9%.

International

The October Japanese leading economic indicators came in at 93.8 versus expectations of 93.2; household spending was up 2.1% versus +1.0%; cash earnings declined 0.8% versus -0.6%; Q3 final GDP growth was 5.3% versus 5.0% with capital spending down 2.4% versus -3.2%.

October German industrial production was up 3.2% versus projections of up 1.6%; December economic sentiment came in at 55.0 versus 45.5.
Q3 EU employment rose 1.0% versus forecasts of +0.9%; GDP growth was 12.5% versus +12.6%; December economic sentiment was reported at 54.4 versus 32.0

Other

Bracing for Brexit’s financial shock.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/london-braces-brexits-financial-shockwave

The Fed

BIS issues warning solvency issues are growing.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bis-issues-dire-warning-we-are-moving-liquidity-solvency-phase-crisis

Fiscal Policy

Indiscriminate stimulus is absurd (must read).
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/12/indiscriminate-stimulus-in-a-pandemic-is-absurd/?itm_campaign=headline-testing-indiscriminate-stimulus-in-a-pandemic-is-absurd&itm_medium=headline&itm_source=nationalreview&itm_content=Indiscriminate%20Stimulus%20in%20a%20Pandemic%20Is%20Absurd&itm_term=Indiscriminate%20Stimulus%20in%20a%20Pandemic%20Is%20Absurd

Bottom line. Expensive markets are more dangerous than you think.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/expensive-markets-are-more-dangerous-you-think

The fundamental problem with the bullish view.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/roaring-20s-fundamental-problem-bullish-view

Are you a permabear?
https://allstarcharts.com/permabear/

News on Stocks in Our Portfolios

Brown-Forman (NYSE:BF.B): FQ2 GAAP EPS of $0.50 misses by $0.02.
Revenue of $985M (-0.4% Y/Y) beats by $17.24M.

What I am reading today

As usual with Traderfeed, his trading advice has applicability to all of our life experiences.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2020/12/how-to-overcome-self-critical-thinking.html

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